Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

lucernarian

Mr Bumble wrote: »

So you haven't spotted anyone who seems to take great pleasure in emptying the old bucket of ice water over a thread?
Someone who positively revels in the "i told you so" moment and does it even when it's not necessary, without ever doing any of the forecasting or model explaining to earn the right, just to provoke people?


I've spotted at least two. They're never far away.
It's very odd. I don't see the fun in it.

Yeah you can spot both. I try not to pay attention to either. I do get triggered when people are giving their honest opinions of model output and Met Éireann forecasts and are told they're being misleading.

I personally thought the models were underestimating the potential. But I didn't trash talk anyone who were giving their own honest appraisal of it by referring to model output and giving their own insights.

Someone saying "event's over, bye snow hopers" is a completely different kettle of fish.

BigMoose

AuntySnow wrote: »

Wicklow town is bad for frontal snowfall
It had half what we had from Emma
Also in Jan 82,relations came here about a fortnight after that blizzard and were astounded by the ditch high drifts still in place here
Wicklow town is shielded by a vein of high ground to its south
It got a fierce dump in 2010 but that was northeasterly, a sea track to Cumbria, nothing in the way

I'm in Wicklow Town and we've had a few reasonably heavy graupel showers today although none long enough to hang around. Bits of dandruff floating about the rest of the time.

We got near sod all from the east before Emma while you in Arklow did quite well from what I remember. Emma did at least deliver something worth talking about if not as mad as elsewhere. But then standing at the side of football pitches watching the kids always seems far colder in Arklow than here...! You normally only have to drive inland to Rathdrum to find loads more snow than we get on the coast, sometimes just to Glenealy.

TTLF

So, if Dublin Kildare etc have been removed from the warning, yet winds are expected to turn back ENE/NE tonight (from what I've heard?) are we just going to be added back to the warning tonight?

yourdeadwright

So is it going to snow in Dublin heavy or nothing at all ,
Sorry iv no idea about weather just what I see out the window

zacharius

I for one fully expect thundersnow and 6 foot drifts in my area by midnight. D.16.

Snowbie

TTLF wrote: »

So, if Dublin Kildare etc have been removed from the warning, yet winds are expected to turn back ENE/NE tonight (from what I've heard?) are we just going to be added back to the warning tonight?

If winds go north of east, it will bring Dublin, Wicklow, North Wexford, Kildare and Carlow more into play and if wind strength remains. Northern parts of Leinster will still get wintry stuff but a longer sea track favours the above counties. If more of a NE wind South Dublin, much of Kildare to Rosslare harbour, Waterford, Carlow and Kilkenny, Laois are at risk but only if wind strength again remains for inland counties. Wind falls off light its only a coastal risk.

HansKroenke

It's funny to look back over a couple of the news stories discussed in the build up to this week and compare to what actually occurred (Dublin location, near UCD/Booterstown).

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/met-%C3%A9ireann-issues-warning-for-snow-and-sub-zero-temperatures-next-week-1.4476963

This was reported on Friday morning;

The eastern half of the country will see “significant accumulations” of snow, according to Met Éireann forecaster Gerry Murphy. There will be a dusting of snow Sunday into Monday and then further wintery showers are expected Monday into Tuesday.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/more-than-5cm-of-snow-forecast-for-much-of-ireland-on-thursday-1.4478208?mode=amp

Then already on Saturday it had been significantly downplayed;

Earlier forecasts had shown a “fair amount of snow showers” across the east of the country in the first half of this week but “they have kind of pulled back at the moment”, said Ms Coleman.

Latest predictions suggest only parts of north Leinster and Ulster will see a “light dusting” of snow showers coming in on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. It is expected these falls will be just 1cm or 2 cm.

What has actually occurred in my location the last two days was some quite windy and cold weather yesterday, sometimes falling as sleet/dandruff type hail but never sticking. Today is actually quite mild with no showers even and bone dry everywhere.

This is in line with what we typically see with regard to snow. In fact, BFTE is an extreme outlier in the last decade when it comes to any real snow in this part of Ireland, south Dublin away from the mountains offers now realistic prospect of snow in the general scheme of events unfortunately. Still, maybe there'll be something on Thursday, albeit expectations cannot be high.

BigMoose

BigMoose wrote: »

I'm in Wicklow Town and we've had a few reasonably heavy graupel showers today although none long enough to hang around. Bits of dandruff floating about the rest of the time.

We got near sod all from the east before Emma while you in Arklow did quite well from what I remember. Emma did at least deliver something worth talking about if not as mad as elsewhere. But then standing at the side of football pitches watching the kids always seems far colder in Arklow than here...! You normally only have to drive inland to Rathdrum to find loads more snow than we get on the coast, sometimes just to Glenealy.

Yup
Rathdrum is just far enough inland and with proximity to high ground
Many train trips home in the 80s from Dublin and the Glenealy to Avoca stretch was like a scene from murder on the orient express
A few times that train only went as far as Wicklow
Too much snow further up and in

John.Icy

John.Icy wrote: »

Unfortunately the forum does have some resident hopecasters who as far as I can see don't have the technical wherewithal that others have but definitely make their presence known in the winter threads. Take the FI thread for example. Anytime people try get discussion going or comment on patterns that don't look cold you have people in the thread constantly dismissing it and that the mild won't come etc., calling posters negative or pessimistic, with no actual reason other than they have an internal hope it will snow and want to reverse psychology it into existence. I've typed up countless posts at times and just delete them because it's just not worth the hassle for it to be dismissed with a ''sure that's 4 days away it means nothing!!' response. Same as in this thread they never take to kindly to those who post realistic assessments. What can we do really though. Can't stop people from posting and you're always going to end up with a certain % of posters who fall into the 'where is the snow I was promised' category.

One of the best posts I've read about this forum, I shun active participation in these threads for similar reasons.

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote: »

If winds go north of east, it will bring Dublin, Wicklow, North Wexford, Kildare and Carlow more into play and if wind strength remains. Northern parts of Leinster will still get wintry stuff but a longer sea track favours the above counties. If more of a NE wind South Dublin, much of Kildare to Rosslare harbour, Waterford, Carlow and Kilkenny, Laois are at risk but only if wind strength again remains for inland counties. Wind falls off light its only a coastal risk.

Veering slightly ENE here near Arklow but would need to be NE alright

TTLF

AuntySnow wrote: »

Veering slightly ENE here near Arklow but would need to be NE alright

Seems I've gotten snow here in SCD again... although it's still light graupel but coming down moderately, guess I got a random streamer but encouraging wind direction.

lucernarian

Seems like ICON overstated the accumulated potential the most going by reports from Louth including on higher ground. The high resolution models like Hirlam and Euro4 were pretty accurate though.

Nqp15hhu

HansKroenke wrote: »

It's funny to look back over a couple of the news stories discussed in the build up to this week and compare to what actually occurred (Dublin location, near UCD/Booterstown).

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/met-%C3%A9ireann-issues-warning-for-snow-and-sub-zero-temperatures-next-week-1.4476963

This was reported on Friday morning;



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/more-than-5cm-of-snow-forecast-for-much-of-ireland-on-thursday-1.4478208?mode=amp

Then already on Saturday it had been significantly downplayed;



What has actually occurred in my location the last two days was some quite windy and cold weather yesterday, sometimes falling as sleet/dandruff type hail but never sticking. Today is actually quite mild with no showers even and bone dry everywhere.

This is in line with what we typically see with regard to snow. In fact, BFTE is an extreme outlier in the last decade when it comes to any real snow in this part of Ireland, south Dublin away from the mountains offers now realistic prospect of snow in the general scheme of events unfortunately. Still, maybe there'll be something on Thursday, albeit expectations cannot be high.

I would disagree. Here we usually get several days a winter (through NW airstreams) of heavy snow showers and at least 5cm

Gonzo

The models generally did a fantastic job of showing the snow depths from this easterly, basically nothing and that's exactly what we've gotten if you exclude transitional dustings of ice pellets.

The models do show a small covering from the frontal snow events on Thursday and Friday but they are far from exciting away from high ground locations and based on how accurate they have been with this easterly, i'm tending to believe that between 1 and 8cm is what we can hope for, which is still far better than anything this easterly has delivered.

R.F.

AuntySnow wrote: »

Veering slightly ENE here near Arklow but would need to be NE alright

C'mon Aunty Snow. Give us some hope for Gorey and Arklow!

brianthomas

If you click through the frames on Met.ie Rainfall Radar fast enough you can see how the wind direction has moved to a more ENE direction over the last few hours, tracking any precipitation more towards central Leinster. Maybe we will see some increase in shower activity as a result. Winds seem to be picking up after a lull the last 2 hours (Clondalkin Dublin here)

Graces7

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Has it ever actually snowed in the Bible?

Indeed yes; it is mentioned 23 times...

"I will be whiter than snow. " etc, and always a good thing... pure, white...eastern lands know snow well.

But "Biblical" in the way it is used here has a different connotation. ie Enormous, of great extent.

Larbre34

Hard surface graupel melt is complete here in D15.

lucernarian

Gonzo wrote: »

The models generally did a fantastic job of showing the snow depths from this easterly, basically nothing and that's exactly what we've gotten if you exclude transitional dustings of ice pellets.

The models do show a small covering from the frontal snow events on Thursday and Friday but they are far from exciting away from high ground locations and based on how accurate they have been with this easterly, i'm tending to believe that between 1 and 8cm is what we can hope for, which is still far better than anything this easterly has delivered.

Be careful man, you might be told you're misrepresenting the models

Stevieluvsye

John.Icy wrote: »

I think the models were fairly spot on in terms of accumulations expected tbf.

But I wouldn't say they grasped the extent of the streamers that well either. Looks like ICON did a great job. Very light but had the most extensive precip. as I can see. Even last night when the streamers were active some of the hi-res models still were totally blank on the precip charts. Ultimately it doesn't really matter as convection was too shallow, ground temps were too warm, and intensity was too varied and mostly light. We have had hours of cumulative graupel and snow grains falling here since yesterday but only a brief dusting this morning. Any drop in intensity and you had melt. Really did need a few frosts coming into Sunday. Or else needed to be further inland where some actual full coverings were seen and actual snow flakes fell.

Re: the hype. I do see both sides. If you have been around here a fair time you know the posters who know there stuff and who to listen to. Doing that, you probably wouldn't have expected much bar maybe briefly when MT posted his own promising update that was fairly out there all things considering and no poster should have got ridiculed for saying as such. MT did pull back on it by the next day so not like he dangled the big accumulations in front of us the whole time. A lot of people don't have the luxury of being on here 5-10 years and most of the most thanked posts do end up being the OTT incoming snow posts, that's where a lot of people probably focus if they are new round here.

Unfortunately the forum does have some resident hopecasters who as far as I can see don't have the technical wherewithal that others have but definitely make their presence known in the winter threads. Take the FI thread for example. Anytime people try get discussion going or comment on patterns that don't look cold you have people in the thread constantly dismissing it and that the mild won't come etc., calling posters negative or pessimistic, with no actual reason other than they have an internal hope it will snow and want to reverse psychology it into existence. I've typed up countless posts at times and just delete them because it's just not worth the hassle for it to be dismissed with a ''sure that's 4 days away it means nothing!!' response. Same as in this thread they never take to kindly to those who post realistic assessments. What can we do really though. Can't stop people from posting and you're always going to end up with a certain % of posters who fall into the 'where is the snow I was promised' category.

Well said. I posted something similar at the weekend and got vilified for it. The place is an asylum lately. I'd go as far as being as bad as Current affairs. I unfollowed all the threads and just pop in once a day to see latest charts being posted and MT's forecast in the morning.

Oh and they all seem to be weather experts. There are 7 maybe 8 posters who know their stuff. The rest haven't a bulls notion and see what they want to see, even if it's not there.

Anyway, looking at the short range charts, the place should get back to some level of normality from Friday onwards

Snowbie

AuntySnow wrote: »

Veering slightly ENE here near Arklow but would need to be NE alright

Direct east here atm with upper winds now ENE so they should be transferring to the surface soon. Your bang on inline with ECM showing ENE both surface and at height. It looks to remain (from the ECM 06Z run) that's how far north of east it goes, no real NE wind for us both.

johnny45

I was called a troll on here yesterday for saying that it would be sleet and rain for the week.
I was right.

gerrybhoy

johnny45 wrote: »

I was called a troll on here yesterday for saying that it would be sleet and rain for the week.
I was right.

Its Tuesday......

Zogabomb

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Well said. I posted something similar at the weekend and got vilified for it. The place is an asylum lately. I'd go as far as being as bad as Current affairs. I unfollowed all the threads and just pop in once a day to see latest charts being posted and MT's forecast in the morning.

Oh and they all seem to be weather experts. There are 7 maybe 8 posters who know their stuff. The rest haven't a bulls notion and see what they want to see, even if it's not there.

Anyway, looking at the short range charts, the place should get back to some level of normality from Friday onwards

a bit unfair imo, this forum isn't just for weather experts. I follow this all year around and I'm a total novice. There are lots more than 7 or 8 who post and the forum would be a boring place without them. This is not a technical thread so all comments and observations should be encouraged here.

DOCARCH

johnny45 wrote: »

I was called a troll on here yesterday for saying that it would be sleet and rain for the week.
I was right.

You are not right and you are trolling.

Slashermcguirk

Then why is it snowing today?

johnny45 wrote: »

I was called a troll on here yesterday for saying that it would be sleet and rain for the week.
I was right.

brianthomas

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Its Tuesday......

:)

DellyBelly

Just back from a walk here in Dublin 8. Bitterly cold. The wind would cut you in two but fortunately the snow has held off around hear. Just a few falls of graupel.

piplip87

johnny45 wrote: »

I was called a troll on here yesterday for saying that it would be sleet and rain for the week.
I was right.

Its Tuesday and I'm looking at lying snow

Stevieluvsye

Zogabomb wrote: »

a bit unfair imo, this forum isn't just for weather experts. I follow this all year around and I'm a total novice. There are lots more than 7 or 8 who post and the forum would be a boring place without them. This is not a technical thread so all comments and observations should be encouraged here.

Never said it was, but then don't go interpeting charts as if you (not you) are the new Gerry Murphy

I have seen regular posters in this section point to the marginal event for this week and they were also vilified, and told to basically piss off with their negativity