Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

pad199207

Snow grain showers becoming a little more frequent in Kildare now with a small swing N of East in wind direction too.

Loughc

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Then why is it snowing today?

Where is it snowing? Windy and bright skies here in North Dublin.

pad199207

North Kildare today

gerrybhoy

Loughc wrote: »

Where is it snowing? Windy and bright skies here in North Dublin.

Think what the lad is saying is there have been flurries reported in most parts of Dublin and other places today,still small flakes falling in D15

.anon.

John.Icy wrote: »

Unfortunately the forum does have some resident hopecasters who as far as I can see don't have the technical wherewithal that others have but definitely make their presence known in the winter threads. Take the FI thread for example. Anytime people try get discussion going or comment on patterns that don't look cold you have people in the thread constantly dismissing it and that the mild won't come etc., calling posters negative or pessimistic, with no actual reason other than they have an internal hope it will snow and want to reverse psychology it into existence. I've typed up countless posts at times and just delete them because it's just not worth the hassle for it to be dismissed with a ''sure that's 4 days away it means nothing!!' response. Same as in this thread they never take to kindly to those who post realistic assessments. What can we do really though. Can't stop people from posting and you're always going to end up with a certain % of posters who fall into the 'where is the snow I was promised' category.

Reminds me of myself years ago. The slightest whiff of a cold spell and I'd be avidly gazing at lampposts and scouring the papers and Aertel (p152) for what I wanted to hear. And then getting really annoyed with my parents when they'd tell me it's not going to snow, as if they were ruining the dream. Which, nine times out of ten, especially throughout the '90s, is all it was. A dream, because a substantial amount of snow is an anomaly for most of us.

I was 28-years-old.

greenspurs

yourdeadwright wrote: »

So is it going to snow in Dublin heavy or nothing at all ,
Sorry iv no idea about weather just what I see out the window

You are the same as everyone else then ...

Look up 6 weather website... get 6 different forecasts ...

"A broken clock ..." etc etc :rolleyes:

Stevieluvsye

pad199207 wrote: »

North Kildare today

I'm about 3 mile up the road from you and didn't get near that amount...........Was that first thing? Was a fair bit at 7am

ninebeanrows

Bitter cold with a few graupel showers.

There's actually some puddle about so precipitation amounts haven't been dreadful, of course gauges will miss most of it as it'll be bouncing around and with the breeze. I'd say been 3-5mm here overnight but only some patches of graupel here and there.

I expect Greater Dublin area to have greatest snow risk between 3am and 3pm tomorrow from these showers, some covergence showing up and NE breeze easing. Possibly 1-3cm by Wednesday evening in this area and probably a decent frost Wednesday night before we see what comes from the southwest.

Slashermcguirk

Look at the thread, numerous reports of lying snow today but you probably chose to ignore those because it’s not in your garden

Loughc wrote: »

Where is it snowing? Windy and bright skies here in North Dublin.

pad199207

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

I'm about 3 mile up the road from you and didn't get near that amount...........Was that first thing? Was a fair bit at 7am

Yeah that would have been around midday methinks

ninebeanrows

Loughc wrote: »

Where is it snowing? Windy and bright skies here in North Dublin.

Dublin airport has reported light snow showers for the past 14 hours. Stop trolling, no there isn't any significant snow at the moment apart from a patchy covering inland but stop the nonsense.

Zogabomb

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Never said it was, but then don't go interpeting charts as if you (not you) are the new Gerry Murphy

I have seen regular posters in this section point to the marginal event for this week and they were also vilified, and told to basically piss off with their negativity

fair point, the one thing I will say though... There was some turnaround between 11.30pm last night on the Claire Byrne show and 7am this morning. I'm not ruling out a slight move in the other direction after this afternoon runs.

Paso Fino

I'm north coastal Dublin and we have had near continuous snow showers - admittedly very little is sticking due to the wind, but it is snowing.

Stevieluvsye

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah that would have been around midday methinks

Actually ye, there was a heavy shower around then too

gerrybhoy

Wind seems to be picking up slightly here,when it gusts it'll cut ye in two

Humberto Salazar

Graces7 wrote: »

Indeed yes; it is mentioned 23 times...

"I will be whiter than snow. " etc, and always a good thing... pure, white...eastern lands know snow well.

But "Biblical" in the way it is used here has a different connotation. ie Enormous, of great extent.

Good stuff. See people, you get theological as well as meteorological teaching in here.

pauldry

It is going to snow in Dublin. Just not a lot.

Davaeo09

Everyone needs to stop with this "one up over the opposition" mentality.
Let the event play out before we start picking each other apart.
Or maybe consider not doing it at all??? Go for a walk, if any thing it should be dry enough in most places..

Lets remember this will not be the last event and we don't want to scare away the more knowledgeable people

tl:dr onto the next swing in the moods

Graces7

John.Icy wrote: »

I think the models were fairly spot on in terms of accumulations expected tbf.

But I wouldn't say they grasped the extent of the streamers that well either. Looks like ICON did a great job. Very light but had the most extensive precip. as I can see. Even last night when the streamers were active some of the hi-res models still were totally blank on the precip charts. Ultimately it doesn't really matter as convection was too shallow, ground temps were too warm, and intensity was too varied and mostly light. We have had hours of cumulative graupel and snow grains falling here since yesterday but only a brief dusting this morning. Any drop in intensity and you had melt. Really did need a few frosts coming into Sunday. Or else needed to be further inland where some actual full coverings were seen and actual snow flakes fell.

Re: the hype. I do see both sides. If you have been around here a fair time you know the posters who know there stuff and who to listen to. Doing that, you probably wouldn't have expected much bar maybe briefly when MT posted his own promising update that was fairly out there all things considering and no poster should have got ridiculed for saying as such. MT did pull back on it by the next day so not like he dangled the big accumulations in front of us the whole time. A lot of people don't have the luxury of being on here 5-10 years and most of the most thanked posts do end up being the OTT incoming snow posts, that's where a lot of people probably focus if they are new round here.

Unfortunately the forum does have some resident hopecasters who as far as I can see don't have the technical wherewithal that others have but definitely make their presence known in the winter threads. Take the FI thread for example. Anytime people try get discussion going or comment on patterns that don't look cold you have people in the thread constantly dismissing it and that the mild won't come etc., calling posters negative or pessimistic, with no actual reason other than they have an internal hope it will snow and want to reverse psychology it into existence. I've typed up countless posts at times and just delete them because it's just not worth the hassle for it to be dismissed with a ''sure that's 4 days away it means nothing!!' response. Same as in this thread they never take to kindly to those who post realistic assessments. What can we do really though. Can't stop people from posting and you're always going to end up with a certain % of posters who fall into the 'where is the snow I was promised' category.

I … well, I read it from the start as meaning snow would fall on THURSDAY. So this has been a very ….unusual and bewildering thread!.

And the wonderful thing is that snow is still forecast for Thursday ? Or was I just focusing on where I live? Only because that the day my food supplies arrive!

brookers

John.Icy wrote: »

I think the models were fairly spot on in terms of accumulations expected tbf.

But I wouldn't say they grasped the extent of the streamers that well either. Looks like ICON did a great job. Very light but had the most extensive precip. as I can see. Even last night when the streamers were active some of the hi-res models still were totally blank on the precip charts. Ultimately it doesn't really matter as convection was too shallow, ground temps were too warm, and intensity was too varied and mostly light. We have had hours of cumulative graupel and snow grains falling here since yesterday but only a brief dusting this morning. Any drop in intensity and you had melt. Really did need a few frosts coming into Sunday. Or else needed to be further inland where some actual full coverings were seen and actual snow flakes fell.

Re: the hype. I do see both sides. If you have been around here a fair time you know the posters who know there stuff and who to listen to. Doing that, you probably wouldn't have expected much bar maybe briefly when MT posted his own promising update that was fairly out there all things considering and no poster should have got ridiculed for saying as such. MT did pull back on it by the next day so not like he dangled the big accumulations in front of us the whole time. A lot of people don't have the luxury of being on here 5-10 years and most of the most thanked posts do end up being the OTT incoming snow posts, that's where a lot of people probably focus if they are new round here.

Unfortunately the forum does have some resident hopecasters who as far as I can see don't have the technical wherewithal that others have but definitely make their presence known in the winter threads. Take the FI thread for example. Anytime people try get discussion going or comment on patterns that don't look cold you have people in the thread constantly dismissing it and that the mild won't come etc., calling posters negative or pessimistic, with no actual reason other than they have an internal hope it will snow and want to reverse psychology it into existence. I've typed up countless posts at times and just delete them because it's just not worth the hassle for it to be dismissed with a ''sure that's 4 days away it means nothing!!' response. Same as in this thread they never take to kindly to those who post realistic assessments. What can we do really though. Can't stop people from posting and you're always going to end up with a certain % of posters who fall into the 'where is the snow I was promised' category.

I found the lead up to the Beast from the East much more enjoyable, was more technical, even though I don't have a clue. Just a snow person form the mountains of Wicklow. It also had hardly any trolls or people just hopping on to see if they get snow. I think you will find Covid and lockdown has made people very angry and really argumentative. I also find you don't get as many people who know what they are talking about posting.

Stevieluvsye

Graces7 wrote: »

I … well, I read it from the start as meaning snow would fall on THURSDAY. So this has been a very ….unusual and bewildering thread!.

And the wonderful thing is that snow is still forecast for Thursday ? Or was I just focusing on where I live? Only because that the day my food supplies arrive!

I think you may be ok Grace being offshore and so far west. Keep an eye on the forecast tomorrow morning/afternoon

Stevieluvsye

brookers wrote: »

I found the lead up to the Beast from the East much more enjoyable, was more technical, even though I don't have a clue. Just a snow person form the mountains of Wicklow. It also had hardly any trolls or people just hopping on to see if they get snow. I think you will find Covid and lockdown has made people very angry and really argumentative. I also find you don't get as many people who know what they are talking about posting.

It's probably more people having access to boards either WFH or on PUP

Davaeo09

ME NATIONAL FORECAST
Issued at: 09 February 2021 14:56

NATIONAL OUTLOOK
Wednesday night: Largely dry, cold night with isolated wintry showers and clear spells. However rain, sleet and snow will move into the southwest overnight as southeasterly breezes freshen. Winds will become strong and gusty across the southwest. Lowest temperatures of -4 to +1 degrees with frost and ice forming, coldest in Ulster.

Thursday: Sleet and snow will slowly extend northwards from the southwest across much of Munster, Connacht and Leinster, with snow accumulations leading to hazardous conditions. Highest temperatures of 1 to 3 degrees. Feeling colder in fresh and gusty southeast winds, strongest in western and southwestern counties.

Thursday night: Remaining breezy overnight with sleet and snow continuing to fall over much of the east, midlands and north leading to further accumulations. However, precipitation will turn to rain in parts of the south and west. Lowest temperatures of -1 to +2 degrees with fresh southeasterly winds.

Graces7

pad199207 wrote: »

North Kildare today

lol...

Graces7

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

I think you may be ok Grace being offshore and so far west. Keep an eye on the forecast tomorrow morning/afternoon

Thanks and yes and if not Thursday then Friday and I am mostly well stocked.

It just registered with me as the one day it was planning serious snow..I just need the intense cold to ease.

ninebeanrows

ICON going for a bit of a convergence zone there near Dublin tomorrow around lunchtime, it'll be the last gasp that gives us a proper cover I reckon.

Can anybody explain the snow melt today, or rather the relatively high temps at the surface. Are the uppers not -10?

If we saw this exact chart a week ago wouldnt we expect near zero temps and snow? Or did the real cool uppers not materialise?

AllForIt

If feels odd to be so cold but I didn't see a bit of frost or ice anywhere. Today is as cold as I've felt outdoors for a long time. (West).

Slashermcguirk

A further update at 3pm on Met Éireann website and they are still going with snow until potentially Saturday for the east and north. They seem really set on that now as that’s the third update having presumably seen the most recent models. Mentions of consistent additional accumulations

Supercell

If we could just silently nuke Anglesey and the Isle of Man into the Irish Sea there would be alot more happiness around here I feel overall.
I'll get on the phone to MM now and see if he can sort it for us.