Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

EMPotatohands

pauldry wrote: »

Phone has 3c 2c and 3c as temperature in Sligo Sunday Monday Tuesday then 7c for all the days after. It's not really a surprise if it gets downgraded. Sure were well used to it. However no snowy spells anywhere seem to last too long nowadays so even one or two days of heavy snow would be enough.

During the Beast my daughter was sick of it after 2 hours

My phone had it snowing in Ballyfermot for two hours non stop last week and about 8 flakes fell, I don’t think they’re very accurate

Oneiric 3

ECMWF 12z max and min forecast temps for Claremorris met station. -2.0c is the lowest on offer during this 'cold easterly' spell.

https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/5-397000/Ireland/Claremorris

This is simply unacceptable. Roll on next winter.

The chan chan man

Holy Duck wrote: »

Bit below the belt there bucko

What?

Kermit.de.frog

Why are some getting so flustered? Everything is on track. It'll be grand. :cool:

Calm down everyone.

nacho libre

Met EireannMONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 02 FEBRUARY 2021

Week 1 (Friday 05 February to Thursday 11 February)

A strong signal for low pressure dominant to the south and high pressure to the north, meaning Ireland will lie in a mainly easterly airflow. This will lead to below average temperatures for the week. Precipitation will likely be well below average for much of the country though showery conditions will feed into northeastern and eastern coastal counties, with above average precipitations amounts there. With the strong easterly flow, wind-chill will be a big factor for this week, with the potential for winds to impact eastern coasts. Some wintry precipitation is likely, especially in the north and east. Widespread frosts at night, with hazardous conditions where ice forms.



Week 2 (Friday 12 February to Thursday 18 February)

Low pressure in mid-Atlantic will likely extend its influence over Ireland with a mainly southwesterly airflow. This will mark a change from the previous week with temperatures recovering to more normal levels. Precipitation levels will increase to above normal for much of the country. Wind and rainfall are the main potential hazards in this setup.



Week 3 (Friday 19 February to Thursday 25 February)



High pressure to the north looks set to be the dominate feature for the week. This would lead to mainly settled conditions, much drier than average with temperatures around normal.There is a risk of some frosty nights with calm conditions. Mist and fog are possible hazards.



Week 4 (Friday 26 February to Thursday 04 March)



The high pressure is indicated to decline northwards, leading to a northeasterly airflow developing over Ireland. This would likely lead to colder than average temperatures but still predominately drier than average for much of the country with perhaps showers feeding into the northeast and east. Possible hazards are wintry flurries in the northeast and east, frosty nights for much of the country.

Look good for some further snow opportunities throughout the month. I'd love to it to stay cold for a month without interruption, but events like 2009 and 2010 are exceptionally rare. Indeed if i recall correctly even 2009 and 2010 had some milder blips.

ari101

Well we might not get snow worth talking about, but ye sure passed a few hours of boredom for me

Who knew fetch is not just a word for dogs, and I never realised IOM had a shadow?

Way over my head, but the excitement (and possibly mindless optimism?) is palpable and infectious. Despite the fact I can't wear proper snow suitable shoes at the moment, and need new tyres for the car, I'm here rooting for a good accumulation - nuts!

Some lovely throw backs, pic and videos as well as the momentum building charts, must lurk round in here more often

Little snowy old me

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Everything is on track. It'll be grand. :cool:

Calm down everyone.

Steady heads needed.....

Cluedo Monopoly

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Why are some getting so flustered? Everything is on track. It'll be grand. :cool:

Calm down everyone.

I want helicopters falling from the sky!

Reversal

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECMWF 12z max and min forecast temps for Claremorris met station. -2.0c is the lowest on offer during this 'cold easterly' spell.

https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/5-397000/Ireland/Claremorris

This is simply unacceptable. Roll on next winter.

Yeah well there won't be radiative cooling at night as there will be strong winds, cloud cover and fairly persistent percip over Leinster throughout l, so maxes of 1 and lows of -2/-3 that are progged for the east under those conditions are quite cold. Can hardly be compared to a shallow layer of -5 temps just on the surface on a calm clear night. Apples and oranges.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECMWF 12z max and min forecast temps for Claremorris met station. -2.0c is the lowest on offer during this 'cold easterly' spell.

https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/5-397000/Ireland/Claremorris

This is simply unacceptable. Roll on next winter.

That comment is unacceptable paddy1! It's the naughty corner for you bucko:)!

Don't listen to him mr easterly and snow!

Oneiric 3

Reversal wrote: »

Yeah well there won't be radiative cooling at night as there will be strong winds, cloud cover and fairly persistent percip over Leinster throughout l, so maxes of 1 and lows of -2/-3 that are progged for the east under those conditions are quite cold. Can hardly be compared to a shallow layer of -5 temps just on the surface on a calm clear night. Apples and oranges.

Here are the forecast minima for Casement Aerodrome from the same model:

https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/2-6296699/Ireland/Leinster/South%20Dublin/Baldonnel%20Aerodrome

Neddyusa

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECMWF 12z max and min forecast temps for Claremorris met station. -2.0c is the lowest on offer during this 'cold easterly' spell.

https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/5-397000/Ireland/Claremorris

This is simply unacceptable. Roll on next winter.

If theres one thing that yr forecast is poor for (even at t0) its forecasting frost.
During the early Jan cold snap when we had several -6 and -7 nights, the coldest ever forecast here by YR was also -2.

Apart from this, I'd find YR very good within 72 hrs

Reversal

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Here are the forecast minima for Casement Aerodrome from the same model:

https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/2-6296699/Ireland/Leinster/South%20Dublin/Baldonnel%20Aerodrome

And here is another source of direct model output for an urban area in S Dublin, from the same run of the same model. Respectable given the strong onshore winds and cloud cover, and a lot colder than you'd see anywhere within 10 miles of the coast in most Northerlys and all northwesterlies.



Anyway, we all know looking at low Res direct model output for temps is useless.

Oneiric 3

I don't see that 'other source' linked.

Let's try and stop trying to put lipstick on a pig here.

Mount Vesuvius

nacho libre wrote: »

That comment is unacceptable paddy1! It's the naughty corner for you bucko:)!

Don't listen to him mr easterly and snow!

He is searching for the "Deep Easterly" of times gone by.

Reversal

Reversal wrote: »

Anyway, we all know looking at low Res direct model output for temps is useless.

There’s 3 ice days in there.

Reckless Abandonment

I don't think anyone is expecting to skate on the canals during the week. We just want to see a few days of snow and enjoy them. If its gone by Wednesday so be it.. its already been a better winter than most in the last while .(a bit to wet mind you)

Mount Vesuvius

Well I'm going to thoroughly enjoy the crisp dry freshness to the air, and any snow showers here in the East will be truly appreciated along with the blue skies and winter sunshine.

If it's brief then ok , not a triumph but could be more surprises around the corner.

Alot of downhearted folks in here lately, there was never a beast , the beast is sunning his ass elsewhere and may not pay a visit for a long time again.

Mount Vesuvius

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Well I'm going to throughly enjoy the crisp dry freshness to the air, and any snow showers here in the East will be truly appreciated along with the blue skies and winter sunshine.

If it's brief then ok , not a triumph but could be more surprises around the corner.

Alot of downhearted folks in here lately, there was never a beast , the beast is sunning his ass elsewhere and may not pay a visit for a long time again.

Yeh I don’t get it. The models verify a cold spell and because it’s just a few days of cold and bright, which wasn’t guaranteed even a few days ago, it’s glum in here.

And it’s not even certain the cold won’t last all week.

Chalkitdown147

Just so I can understand this....we have people in here arguing with each other about the weather?!? In Ireland?!? In our climate?!?

Everytime there is a weather event on this island it's literally not nailed till 3 or 4 days before, it's why this forum is brilliant for chart watching etc etc. Any snow lying at sea level is such a bonus in this country, let's just enjoy the model watching and leave the bickering.

I don't like snow personally but watching these models is what tickles me fancy, once in a while weather event's. As Kermit said.......calm!!

brianthomas

EMPotatohands wrote: »

My phone had it snowing in Ballyfermot for two hours non stop last week and about 8 flakes fell, I don’t think they’re very accurate

Same in Clondalkin (originally a Ballyer man, Drumfinn 😉)

rooney30

The 9 o’clock RTÉ news weather forecast was underwhelming to say the least

Chalkitdown147

mcburns07 wrote: »

You developed that opinion a few hours after joining Boards?

A silent investor. Been following this forum for around 6 years now!! Never felt the need to tell people to cop on and enjoy the ride.

compsys

rooney30 wrote: »

The 9 o’clock RTÉ news weather forecast was underwhelming to say the least

Well it's still a bit up in the air.

Can't blame them.

I do think they might regret contributing to this article though. Talk about a ramp.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/weather-warning-as-siberian-winds-set-to-bring-significant-snow-1.4475268

Dotsie~tmp

mcburns07 wrote: »

You developed that opinion a few hours after joining Boards?

He developed an ability to respond in a slightly humorous non snipey way. You should emulate it.

Villain

Doesn’t the Pub run always lift spirits?

compsys

compsys wrote: »

Well it's still a bit up in the air.

Can't blame them.

I do think they might regret contributing to this article though. Talk about a ramp.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/weather-warning-as-siberian-winds-set-to-bring-significant-snow-1.4475268

That article is right though
I am Convinced there will be significant snow in the parts of the east that are under streamers probably from Sunday night and more than probably Monday to wenesday

Holy Duck

Villain wrote:

Doesn’t the Pub run always lift spirits?

Pina Coladas all round I say

kegg

I know a few terms etc in here but what is the "pub run"?

John.Icy

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeh I don’t get it. The models verify a cold spell and because it’s just a few days of cold and bright, which wasn’t guaranteed even a few days ago, it’s glum in here.

And it’s not even certain the cold won’t last all week.

I think when cold charts first show up people can lose the run of themselves and it's always an expectation of 2010 or 2018 repeats. Too many posters get sucked in and boom and bank the night away and plenty end up way too far down the garden path.

When the voices of reason finally start to hit home and get the message across for many to temper the expectations just a little, inevitably some will be disappointed at what is actually on the cards, EVEN if what is on the cards is still very decent/excellent. Greed and past experience can blind anyone to what is on the way.

My own thoughts like Aunty, some will end up with very decent falls. Even if we do only get 2-3 days out of this, that's plenty of time. Only takes a few hours under a streamer to get a couple of inches.