Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Lashes28

DOCARCH wrote: »

North or south if Dublin?

If north....0 chance of disruption.

Don't go breaking my heart like that..
**Manifesting snowy scenes in the north**

Cianos

DOCARCH wrote: »

Some chance, maybe later in the day.

Cheers thank you. Was planning on leaving around 12 but might set off earlier

Oscar Bravo

Shannon TAF , light snow from 8am,chance of moderate snow between 9am - 1pm before turning to sleet . Gusting up to 34 knots. Bitter cold day

TAF EINN 102300Z 1100/1124 10015KT 9999 FEW020 BKN040 TEMPO 1100/1108 10018G28KT
BECMG 1108/1110 11021G34KT 5000 -SN BKN012 TEMPO 1108/1114 3000 -SN BKN006
PROB40 TEMPO 1109/1113 1200 SN BKN003 TEMPO 1114/1122 4000 -RASN BKN008
PROB30 TEMPO 1114/1118 2000 -SNRA BKN004
BECMG 1117/1119 11016KT TEMPO 1119/1124 11017G27KT

HansKroenke

ZeroSum76 wrote: »

That's what I keep hearing... however, and I'm probably going to get lashed out of it for suggesting this given the amount of model speculation that happens on here… (and granted that’s mostly on the other technical thread) it appears that, certainly for my location, the more the interpretation of these models ramps up and then backtracks over and over and they get firmed up closer to the time, the more they start to reflect what the mainstream weather forecast and weather apps were forecasting all along. No more than 1 to 2 intermittent hours of light (sub 3mm precip) snow and which only kicks off in the wee hours of Saturday morning and is quickly followed by rain.

Some people will see this as a troll but trust me it isn’t. I will gladly eat yellow snow on Friday if I’m proven wrong but the weather apps have been forecasting nothing much snow-wise all along and it's looking like they will stay right. Maybe it’s just dumb luck?

Definitely the case with Dublin South last week. The apps didn't actually register much for the early part of this week when Met Éireann forecasters were quoted as saying significant accumulations Monday and Tuesday. This week has actually barely had a few wintry showers as forecasted by ME if I'm being honest which is what the apps had shown all along. For Friday and Saturday it's not showing much snow and I'm leaning to this for my expectation unfortunately. Too many false promises the last 11 years except for BFTE, I find Dublin is just too mild for snow without a freak event to bring it.

BrandonBay86

Heavy snow between Slane & Collon just now. Best yet.

Lashes28

Just graupel in Dunleer. Send some of the good stuff this way. The roads and paths are lethal. They thawed earlier and have refroze. So much black ice around the place.

joeysoap

The difference a few miles makes - cold, windy , dry in Dundalk

Tyrone212

Glenveagh -4.9 at 10.30pm update.

The One Doctor

HansKroenke wrote: »

Definitely the case with Dublin South last week. The apps didn't actually register much for the early part of this week when Met Éireann forecasters were quoted as saying significant accumulations Monday and Tuesday. This week has actually barely had a few wintry showers as forecasted by ME if I'm being honest which is what the apps had shown all along. For Friday and Saturday it's not showing much snow and I'm leaning to this for my expectation unfortunately. Too many false promises the last 11 years except for BFTE, I find Dublin is just too mild for snow without a freak event to bring it.

Problem is that with the best will in the world the experts on Boards are hobbyists or retired meterologists. 99% of the time their predictions are exaggerated... not deliberately, but because, well, they want the interesting weather and so do we, so their predictions unconsciously reflect their desire.

ME called it right this time as they did all the the other times. End of.

I remember after a noted plane crash (AF447) a load of internet aviation experts got together to analyse the crash the same way our weather nerds do. They concluded this and that and were totally confident.

A year later the official crash investigation was published. The internet experts were completely and utterly wrong. Surprise surprise.

JCX BXC

The Shannon TAF is interesting, it seems to be suggesting that the precipitation will become more wintry again later in the evening, if not by much.

The mention of RASN, to my knowledge, means primarily rain mixed with snow, whereas SNRA means primarily snow mixed with rain.

Tyrone212

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Glenveagh -4.9 at 10.30pm update.

Yeh?

It’s been 3c here in north Dublin for 72 hours. Crazily constant.

redsteveireland

Until tomorrow, whatever that brings, time for a couple of hot whiskeys.

mcburns07

The One Doctor wrote: »

Problem is that with the best will in the world the experts on Boards are hobbyists or retired meterologists. 99% of the time their predictions are exaggerated... not deliberately, but because, well, they want the interesting weather and so do we, so their predictions unconsciously reflect their desire.

ME called it right this time as they did all the the other times. End of.

I remember after a noted plane crash a load of internet aviation experts got together to analyse the crash the same way our weather nerds do. They concluded this and that and were totally confident.

A year later the official crash investigation was published. The internet experts were completely and utterly wrong. Surprise surprise.

Did those internet aviation experts have access to black box data?

Gonzo

big temperature difference developing across the country already, milder air getting into the extreme south-west, the cold never really got their in the first place as Ireland has been on the very edge of this cold northern European air over the past few days. Coldest in the north-west at the moment.

Scotland is on another level with -17C in parts already. They could easily get to -20 in parts later tonight.

The One Doctor

mcburns07 wrote: »

Did those internet aviation experts have access to black box data?

They thought they did. But they were so enthusiastic that they didn't realise that all they had were a few messages from the plane and a bit of Flight Aware data.

The comparison holds.

BrandonBay86

Lashes28 wrote: »

Just graupel in Dunleer. Send some of the good stuff this way. The roads and paths are lethal. They thawed earlier and have refroze. So much black ice around the place.

Beefy shower heading your way on radar

BrandonBay86

joeysoap wrote: »

The difference a few miles makes - cold, windy , dry in Dundalk

I think you’re about to get a graupel shower

Nqp15hhu

Gonzo wrote: »

big temperature difference developing across the country already, milder air getting into the extreme south-west, the cold never really got their in the first place as Ireland has been on the very edge of this cold northern European air over the past few days. Coldest in the north-west at the moment.

Scotland is on another level with -17C in parts already. They could easily get to -20 in parts later tonight.

-17c is in a frost hollow. Most of Scotland is above -10c

Lashes28

BrandonBay86 wrote: »

Beefy shower heading your way on radar

Come on kids time to build a snowman 😂

Spanish Eyes

Snow will happen when it happens, but it is so doubtful now really. Such is life.

The snow hysteria here is troubling for a few cms.

I suppose I shouldn't be posting on the professional Tech discussion, but hey.

Dazler97

Gonzo wrote: »

big temperature difference developing across the country already, milder air getting into the extreme south-west, the cold never really got their in the first place as Ireland has been on the very edge of this cold northern European air over the past few days. Coldest in the north-west at the moment.

Scotland is on another level with -17C in parts already. They could easily get to -20 in parts later tonight.

Yes indeed could be the coldest in Scotland for 10 or so years, especially Northern England as well, why can't we swop Ireland being where England is and they take our spot

Tyrone212

If we had thick snow cover like parts of Scotland perhaps we would see a -10 to -12 or below somewhere tonight. We don't so our low temperature will be capped.

Nqp15hhu

I could’ve seen -6 or 7 last night but it clouded over

Dazler97

Dazler97 wrote: »

Yes indeed could be the coldest in Scotland for 10 or so years, especially Northern England as well, why can't we swop Ireland being where England is and they take our spot

A small cottage in the North of Scotland.

That would be very very nice.

crazyjim

-32 in the East End. Walford is in a hollow.

RobertKK

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1359654046001414144?s=20

JCX BXC

The One Doctor wrote: »

Problem is that with the best will in the world the experts on Boards are hobbyists or retired meterologists. 99% of the time their predictions are exaggerated... not deliberately, but because, well, they want the interesting weather and so do we, so their predictions unconsciously reflect their desire.

ME called it right this time as they did all the the other times. End of.

I remember after a noted plane crash (AF447) a load of internet aviation experts got together to analyse the crash the same way our weather nerds do. They concluded this and that and were totally confident.

A year later the official crash investigation was published. The internet experts were completely and utterly wrong. Surprise surprise.

You've very much exaggerated here yourself, 99% of posters are not ramping up even unbeknownst to themselves and there are some 'well weathered' forecasters here that, despite only doing it as a hobby, wouldn't be prone to hyping up events.

Met Éireann do not call it right all of the time! Just as many here do not. Perhaps they have a better chance of getting it right from vast meteorological experience, but several instances where they've been wide off the mark, baffling many here. Trends are also spotted here well in advance of MÉ.

I'm not sure you can correlate a plane crash cause, with a ridiclous amount of unknown variables and those that are known not being released to the public, to the art of weather forecasting, in which we have many resources to use, most of which would be the same ones national weather institutions use.

I don't fundamentally disagree with your post, however I feel it's a extremely large exaggeration of the true extent.

lolie

Got down to -2c earlier but rose back up tp -0.5 in a light snow shower, dropping back down again.
Last nighs dusting nearly lasted as long on the concrete/tarmac as yesterday mornings 4cm.

My 7 year old nephew made a .............
im not to sure what he made this morning.

Rebelbrowser

JCX BXC wrote: »

The Shannon TAF is interesting, it seems to be suggesting that the precipitation will become more wintry again later in the evening, if not by much.

The mention of RASN, to my knowledge, means primarily rain mixed with snow, whereas SNRA means primarily snow mixed with rain.

Yeah, Cork is the same. From 7 to 11 it's rain snow but from 11 to 3 its snow rain? I know you understand Airport TAFs JCX BXC but for dummies like me a spelled out version is at https://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EICK

Rebelbrowser

Just to add it genuinely feels milder here already. Temp is 2.2c which is a degree or two higher than the daytime. I see DP is -5 still though and windchill is -4 but doesn't feel that TBH.