Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Rebelbrowser

ninebeanrows wrote: »

We aren't far away now

Again, really not seeing any south coast marginality there.....

igCorcaigh

Imagine...

https://twitter.com/DerekTheWeather/status/1357269229440036867?s=19

Calibos

ninebeanrows wrote: »

We aren't far away now

Irish sea SST's are about 8ºc atm. -12ºc 850's over it equals the magic 20ºc temperature differential.

Explosive convection and Thundersnow???

Little snowy old me

Whilst it is great to see a cold spell coming in, any snow appears to be restricted to the east. I'm expecting nothing in Donegal or Sligo. We never do well with these setups. But look if we get a few hard drying cold days, it's better than the rain and drizzle and the ground is fairly sodden here.

I don't like these battlefront scenarios that some are talking about midweek. 99%of the time if you have a front moving up giving wet heavy snow, you know there's milder air behind it and any accumulations will be gone in a few hours. I'd prefer a good blast from the North.

nacho libre

Re the potential frontal snowfall, for the cold to hang on its better it does not get as far as Ulster, but hopefully it won't start trending too far south either

TheMilkyPirate

There's a page on Facebook called Irish weather online who are using MT's forecasts word for word every day. Doesn't seem to be any credit given or is it someone form here?

nacho libre

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Whilst it is great to see a cold spell coming in, any snow appears to be restricted to the east. I'm expecting nothing in Donegal or Sligo. We never do well with these setups. But look if we get a few hard drying cold days, it's better than the rain and drizzle and the ground is fairly sodden here.

I don't like these battlefront scenarios that some are talking about midweek. 99%of the time if you have a front moving up giving wet heavy snow, you know there's milder air behind it and any accumulations will be gone in a few hours. I'd prefer a good blast from the North.

The longer this goes on the greater the chance of winds swinging around to a more favourable direction for you to get snowfall.

Gaoth Laidir

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

There's a page on Facebook called Irish weather online who are using MT's forecasts word for word every day. Doesn't seem to be any credit given or is it someone form here?

MT is a member of IWO.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

There's a page on Facebook called Irish weather online who are using MT's forecasts word for word every day. Doesn't seem to be any credit given or is it someone form here?

It is MT

nacho libre

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

There's a page on Facebook called Irish weather online who are using MT's forecasts word for word every day. Doesn't seem to be any credit given or is it someone form here?

I think he is involved with that site?

TheMilkyPirate

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

MT is a member of IWO.

Tom Cruises Left Nut wrote: »

It is MT

Ah very good, thanks

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

Re the potential frontal snowfall, for the cold to hang on its better it does not get as far as Ulster, but hopefully it won't start trending too far south either

If it was rain it would hit us like a bullseye!

Tyrone212

nacho libre wrote: »

Re the potential frontal snowfall, for the cold to hang on its better it does not get as far as Ulster, but hopefully it won't start trending too far south either

Depends where you live lol

Davaeo09

For once in my life I thibk people e need to not take Mt's forecast so literal

While a god among mortals he is also analysing charts 6 hours old nearly by the time most of us are reading

Every run since his forecast has been an upgrade

Don't be so down beat yet people
keep the faith

TheMilkyPirate

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

There's a page on Facebook called Irish weather online who are using MT's forecasts word for word every day. Doesn't seem to be any credit given or is it someone form here?

That page has been around for years,it's actually run by Mt and Oneiric and 1 or 2 more from here
They're also on twitter

munsterlegend

Davaeo09 wrote: »

For once in my life I thibk people e need to not take Mt's forecast so literal

While a god among mortals he is also analysing charts 6 hours old nearly by the time most of us are reading

Every run since his forecast has been an upgrade

Don't be so down beat yet people
keep the faith

He is outlining a range of possibilities which is no harm to dampen expectations.

Davaeo09

munsterlegend wrote: »

He is outlining a range of possibilities which is no harm to dampen expectations.

True but people taking it as gospel might be pleasantly surprised because as we have noted today's charts seem to remove any room for error with these margins down south

Still early

I wouldn't dare contradict him BTW. Reading his forecasts since my college days in carlow. (had 2 big snow years 2010-2011)

Nqp15hhu

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Whilst it is great to see a cold spell coming in, any snow appears to be restricted to the east. I'm expecting nothing in Donegal or Sligo. We never do well with these setups. But look if we get a few hard drying cold days, it's better than the rain and drizzle and the ground is fairly sodden here.

I don't like these battlefront scenarios that some are talking about midweek. 99%of the time if you have a front moving up giving wet heavy snow, you know there's milder air behind it and any accumulations will be gone in a few hours. I'd prefer a good blast from the North.

I agree with you. I am not keen on these fronts either.

I would prefer they stay away and we get snow out of a trough.

Nqp15hhu

nacho libre wrote: »

Re the potential frontal snowfall, for the cold to hang on its better it does not get as far as Ulster, but hopefully it won't start trending too far south either

So basically we get nothing

lucernarian

munsterlegend wrote: »

He is outlining a range of possibilities which is no harm to dampen expectations.

Yeah, total overreaction to what is a potential outlined on some ensembles. The most populated areas of the south coast are also near the coastline and this is the stark reality when it comes to even slightly marginal temps. As for milder air incursions, if the general trend on models verify then these may only raise temperatures for half a day or so during the otherwise-cold synoptics - rather than an even north-south divide for the whole week.

bazlers

Davaeo09 wrote: »

For once in my life I thibk people e need to not take Mt's forecast so literal

While a god among mortals he is also analysing charts 6 hours old nearly by the time most of us are reading

Every run since his forecast has been an upgrade

Don't be so down beat yet people
keep the faith

As GL alluded to awhile back when you look at model runs you try to see what they are gauging and compare with models and come up with your idea of what could happen. Possibly MTCs experience tells him things might move slightly North. Thats just my take on it.
You certainly could be right too.

Calibos

John.Icy wrote: »

From an IMBY view (Dublin), the ECM would be most ideal. GFS/UKMO toying with an ESE'ly wind direction.

Anglesey/N.Wales will come into play then for parts of the East coast. The Isle of Man is not the only thing that can fudge things up. The joys of an east based winds, little differences bring other parts into play. Cork/Waterford/Wexford/S.Wicklow etc could do very well with and ESE wind along with Louth/Down etc.

I think Calibos has an example somewhere of Anglesey/N Wales causing issues, alongside his middle finger/IOM shadow

EDIT: More organised precip/frontal events can bypass this and give everyone a nice dose.b

Couldn't find it yesterday when I saw this post but found it today when I was looking for a different photo for another post.



2010. I think it was a Polar Low passing through. Is precipitation from those affected by Snow Shadows?? Regardless, Bray missed out on hours and a foot or more of Snow. Think this was when Dublin got another dumping just before Christmas 2010. Could have been anywhere between the 12th and 20th of December. Can't remember exactly.

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2017/08/ColdSpell10.pdf

nacho libre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

So basically we get nothing

Well you did say you are not interested in a snow to rain event, if fronts make it that far it increases the possibility of this happening. If they repestedly fail to make it that far,that might mean you benefit in the long run from a reload coming from the north.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Calibos wrote: »

Couldn't find it yesterday when I saw this post but found it today when I was looking for a different photo for another post.



2010. I think it was a Polar Low passing through. Is precipitation from those affected by Snow Shadows?? Regardless, Bray missed out on hours and a foot or more of Snow. Think this was when Dublin got a dumping just before Christmas 2010. Could have been anywhere between the 12th and 20th of December. Can't remember exactly.

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2017/08/ColdSpell10.pdf

I am so sorry but I do remember this caused a great laugh at the time, just not for you :pac:

ari101

Calibos wrote: »

Explosive convection and Thundersnow???

This is a real education, I'm googling terms to make sure they aren't just references to over excited digestive movements and I'm falling down a rabbit hole of meteorological terms

Roll on the snow; groceries will be done before Sunday!

nacho libre

bazlers wrote: »

As GL alluded to awhile back when you look at model runs you try to see what they are gauging and compare with models and come up with your idea of what could happen. Possibly MTCs experience tells him things might move slightly North. Thats just my take on it.
You certainly could be right too.

Yes he is using his intuition from years of forecasting. This does not mean he will always be right. He is not infallible as we have seen over the years. I hope this is not interperted as a dig at him, i just mean people should keep in mind he is mortal like the rest of us!

Indestructable

Does anyone know the name of the really good website with the radar for precipitation? I remember watching it all night in 2018 watching the streamers develop over the Irish sea and then arrive right on time in Kildare.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Indestructable wrote: »

Does anyone know the name of the really good website with the radar for precipitation? I remember watching it all night in 2018 watching the streamers develop over the Irish sea and then arrive right on time in Kildare.

The Netweather radar used to be good but it seems off these days


Met E seems to be the most exact

Billcarson

Indestructable wrote: »

Does anyone know the name of the really good website with the radar for precipitation? I remember watching it all night in 2018 watching the streamers develop over the Irish sea and then arrive right on time in Kildare.

Raintoday radar?

KungPao

Been following this the last few days. But I am starting to have a bad feeling this will only amount to a soggy cool period. Some sleet where I am (Dublin), but no snow to speak of, and zero accumulation. Then back to 8 degrees soon after from the westerlies. Hope I’m wrong obviously.