Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Calibos

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I got less than expected in Galway. We could argue about this all day but there is no point.

..and going on the radar the precipitation as at its most intense in Galway. So much for Thursday being the big day. When it comes to snow in this country, if it can go wrong it will go wrong.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

The high wins the first battle, but loses the war on Saturday.

Hopefully the Derry buck will get to see something out of it over the weekend.

SleetAndSnow

JCX BXC wrote: »

No matter how hard you look, not a trace of snowfall remaining anywhere now in West Clare, even the hills in Kerry are extremely bare looking, and a good northwesterly always has them pasted.

Have a friend who does night shifts, woke up about an hour ago and refused to believe it had snowed, despite me sending photos. Only when seeing plentiful social media posts did he cop onto it.

Friend living in Lisdoon still has snow! Just sent me videos of her and her dog playing around in it. Looks like about 3-5cm of it too. She is in a bit of a cold trap though!

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Intensity is trying to increase here again but seems to be struggling. It's nice to watch either way but I won't weep when it's over.

You, Gonzo and Humberto have moved into the same camp it seems. I'm not that disappointed either, as i've become resigned to this winter being what it is; a major letdown for decent snowfall, but i've made the most of this diluted easterly. I'm not looking forward to the ground being soaked again. I hope Ian Fergusson is right about another easterly being possible before we get back to our default nh profile. Even if he isn't the weather should become more settled later next week, which will hopefully mean some good frosty nights and fog. You probably are hoping for a period of stormy weather.

barney 20v

Genuine question here.,

If, as I suspect this front has broken up and there's nothing of substance coming along behind it in terms of precipitation.. How did so many forecasters get the detail so badly wrong regarding snow into South leinster?

I'm not saying we didn't get the 20 cm estimated at the higher end.. We got nothing.

Genuine question and not a moan.
Just curious as to how something so widely forecast was 100% wrong.

Davaeo09

barney 20v wrote: »

Genuine question here.,

If, as I suspect this front has broken up and there's nothing of substance coming along behind it in terms of precipitation.. How did so many forecasters get the detail so badly wrong regarding snow into South leinster?

I'm not saying we didn't get the 20 cm estimated at the higher end.. We got nothing.

Genuine question and not a moan.
Just curious as to how something so widely forecast was 100% wrong.

Mt did warn of a shadow effect for Inland South Leinster. Seems the Tipperary hills soaked it all up on its push north. So much so it gimped not only carlow and kilkenny, but maybe even its complete progress.

Unless some one around the Clonmel area can tell me there are more showers coming or some one in Carlow tells me it its still snowing, it seems Kilkenny its the county this died in

happyoutscan

barney 20v wrote: »

Genuine question here.,

If, as I suspect this front has broken up and there's nothing of substance coming along behind it in terms of precipitation.. How did so many forecasters get the detail so badly wrong regarding snow into South leinster?

I'm not saying we didn't get the 20 cm estimated at the higher end.. We got nothing.

Genuine question and not a moan.
Just curious as to how something so widely forecast was 100% wrong.

Small island off the coast of Europe with so many variables at play.

Crap shoot at the end of the day (my completely inexperienced opinion).

Davaeo09

As if to spite myself, its started spitting again here.

Oneiric 3

Graces7 wrote: »

Going to bed with a hot water bottle and as many cats as will join me!

They are just tiny leopards. They would eat you if they could.

JCX BXC

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Friend living in Lisdoon still has snow! Just sent me videos of her and her dog playing around in it. Looks like about 3-5cm of it too. She is in a bit of a cold trap though!

To be fair, I'd be more at the southern extreme of West Clare, you wouldn't really use "south Clare" because that could be describing any area from Loop Head to Limerick City.

They got the precip later and seemingly for longer than here.

JCX BXC

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I got less than expected in Galway. We could argue about this all day but there is no point.

Yes, I'm not going to disagree that some areas did worse some areas did better, but it's not a fair to insinuate everywhere did terrible.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

You, Gonzo and Humberto have moved into the same camp it seems. I'm not that disappointed either, as i've become resigned to this winter being what it is; a major letdown for decent snowfall, but i've made the most of this diluted easterly. I'm not looking forward to the ground being soaked again. I hope Ian Fergusson is right about another easterly being possible before we get back to our default nh profile. Even if he isn't the weather should become more settled later next week, which will hopefully mean some good frosty nights and fog. You probably are hoping for a period of stormy weather.

Roads are all wet here again so back to square one. If they are going to be wet then let them be wet for a reason. Winter is usually a time where you hear heavy rain belting off the windows and roof, yet nothing of that sort this winter. Just cold piddly crap that still soaks everything.

sicknotexi

Snow shower in Monasterevin.

SleetAndSnow

JCX BXC wrote: »

To be fair, I'd be more at the southern extreme of West Clare, you wouldn't really use "south Clare" because that could be describing any area from Loop Head to Limerick City.

They got the precip later and seemingly for longer than here.

Definitely moving northwards though, she said it's melting quick, same as you said earlier. Warm air seems to be advancing

Akesh

barney 20v wrote: »

Genuine question here.,

If, as I suspect this front has broken up and there's nothing of substance coming along behind it in terms of precipitation.. How did so many forecasters get the detail so badly wrong regarding snow into South leinster?

I'm not saying we didn't get the 20 cm estimated at the higher end.. We got nothing.

Genuine question and not a moan.
Just curious as to how something so widely forecast was 100% wrong.

Here is a decent article I found when asking the same question as you: https://sites.psu.edu/musingsofameteorologist/2013/01/22/will-meteorology-ever-be-an-exact-science/

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

You, Gonzo and Humberto have moved into the same camp it seems. I'm not that disappointed either, as i've become resigned to this winter being what it is; a major letdown for decent snowfall, but i've made the most of this diluted easterly. I'm not looking forward to the ground being soaked again. I hope Ian Fergusson is right about another easterly being possible before we get back to our default nh profile. Even if he isn't the weather should become more settled later next week, which will hopefully mean some good frosty nights and fog. You probably are hoping for a period of stormy weather.

We have been majorly unlucky in every respect. We came so close to getting decent snow and proper cold on several occasions since Christmas but the old saying 'what can go wrong will go wrong' certainly applied to Ireland.

This cold spell never really got going to any great extent in Ireland. We were on the very outer edge of it and the modification from the Irish sea was the final blow so we failed to get temperatures low enough and a lack of instability as a result. Many of us saw flakes and light temporary dustings, a few places got lucky and had a bit more than 1 to 2cm. There is still a chance at another covering on Saturday morning but it will be very short lived and will be washed away by Saturday evening or Sunday morning at the very latest.

Hopefully we do get a decent area of high pressure and frosty nights developing the second half of next week and into next weekend but by and large the medium term outlook is a mild one. I still wouldn't rule out a model wobble happening at some point which may bring back the cold but that remains to be seen.

Pangea

Connamara just now

typhoony

wasnt someone here calling a red warning for north Cork, although i think he\she was discredited. and next day was no mention from that person except to say that some other area would get a severe dumping of snow

Seymour20

Have gone from fine Emma esque flakes to dinner plates and back again several times in the last hour. The last bits of green are just being filled in.
Outside Westport

Cluedo Monopoly

Very heavy in Galway now.

squarecircles

Full on white out blizzard West mayo

Gonzo

Pangea wrote: »

Connamara just now

that looks decent, is that on high ground?

squarecircles

It's funny I knew this would happen all week here in mayo, as I smugly read about South Coast this east coast that.

typhoony

Gonzo wrote: »

We have been majorly unlucky in every respect. We came so close to getting decent snow and proper cold on several occasions since Christmas but the old saying 'what can go wrong will go wrong' certainly applied to Ireland.

This cold spell never really got going to any great extent in Ireland. We were on the very outer edge of it and the modification from the Irish sea was the final blow so we failed to get temperatures low enough and a lack of instability as a result. Many of us saw flakes and light temporary dustings, a few places got lucky and had a bit more than 1 to 2cm. There is still a chance at another covering on Saturday morning but it will be very short lived and will be washed away by Saturday evening or Sunday morning at the very latest.

Hopefully we do get a decent area of high pressure and frosty nights developing the second half of next week and into next weekend but by and large the medium term outlook is a mild one. I still wouldn't rule out a model wobble happening at some point which may bring back the cold but that remains to be seen.

the deep cold and more importantly a stiff easterly just wasn't there, if we get an Easterly we need the whole of europe to be well below freezing, I don't tink that happened this time regardless of the charts showing -13 850's

Cluedo Monopoly

Gonzo wrote: »

that looks decent, is that on high ground?

Not really. About 100m to 150m is my guess. I live nearby.

Cw85

Carlow has about another 2 hour window for this to happen, fingers crossed

DOCARCH

Gonzo wrote: »

that looks decent, is that on high ground?

Not really. About halfway on the main road between Galway City and Clifden.

SpitfireIV

Davaeo09 wrote: »

Mt did warn of a shadow effect for Inland South Leinster. Seems the Tipperary hills soaked it all up on its push north. So much so it gimped not only carlow and kilkenny, but maybe even its complete progress.

Unless some one around the Clonmel area can tell me there are more showers coming or some one in Carlow tells me it its still snowing, it seems Kilkenny its the county this died in

It's all but stopped here in Carlow town, been at it lightly since before 2pm but didn't amount to anything other than miniscule collections in corners/shaded spots etc. If anything it looks to be brightening up now, cloud cover certainly gone thinner.

Squidvicious

barney 20v wrote: »

Genuine question here.,

If, as I suspect this front has broken up and there's nothing of substance coming along behind it in terms of precipitation.. How did so many forecasters get the detail so badly wrong regarding snow into South leinster?

I'm not saying we didn't get the 20 cm estimated at the higher end.. We got nothing.

Genuine question and not a moan.
Just curious as to how something so widely forecast was 100% wrong.

Good question. It's interesting to see on the rainfall radar that West Galway and West Mayo seem to be getting the heaviest of it at the moment which is the opposite of the forecast. While I would like an answer to the question, I suspect that there isn't one. After all, this isn't unusual, rainfall amounts are under and over forecasted all the time. It's just that we are watching this one particularly closely. The fact is that for all the technology and relative accuracy of forecasts, they don't get things right all the time and I've lost count of the number of times that a forecast dry day isn't quite as dry as I had hoped.

I suppose it's a good thing in some ways. After all, if you're interested in weather, wouldn't it be a bit boring if forecasters got it completely spot on? It opens the possibility of surprises, even if today didn't go our way in terms of snow.

Tyrone212

squarecircles wrote: »

It's funny I knew this would happen all week here in mayo, as I smugly read about South Coast this east coast that.

Inland galway looked to be the sweet spot on some run I saw yesterday or the day before. Can't remember which one my mind is modelled out.