Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

torres9kop

Carlow weather guy in Newstalk in a few mins

redsteveireland

Donegal Ken wrote: »

I can guarantee come Friday or early Saturday morning Met Éireann will have a early advisory issued. I think it would be dangerous for anyone to downplay anything with such strong model outputs especially at this stage. The fine details will not be knowing really until later Saturday for the early days next week and for mid week it will probably be Sunday before we have any concrete evidence what will happen and how much longer this colder spell will last. My own personal view is near the end of next week we will see a more widespread event with snow. Leinster, Northern parts of Ulster and East Munster should see snow streamers effecting them as early as Sunday night to Wednesday with some mixing of sleet around coastal areas to start but more to snowfall from Monday afternoon. With the strength of the wind and in any beefy showers they should work there way further inland possible as far as eastern Connacht.

I have seen this before if the wind is strong enough and the shower beefy I have had snow reach me in East Galway from the Irish Sea.

Slashermcguirk

Met Éireann are saying it’s mostly an east of Ireland event in the initial stages and probably don’t want to spook the whole country if the early days are confined to more Eastern counties. They will presumably ramp it up when there is more certainty as to how many areas are impacted

quote="Little snowy old me;116163494"]Anyone else getting nervous that this is going to go pear shaped in the next 24 hours? Met E were more upbeat yesterday....[/quote]

munsterlegend

BrandonBay86 wrote: »

Little gloomy old me

I have seen more positive lads on death row.

squarecircles

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Here is a higher res precipitation and type (pink is graupel/snow) prognosis until Tuesday morning (model goes no further)

Hilarious, snow forming off the west coast all drifting out into the North Atlantic,you couldn't script it, its some country.

Gonzo

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Met Éireann are saying it’s mostly an east of Ireland event in the initial stages and probably don’t want to spook the whole country if the early days are confined to more Eastern counties. They will presumably ramp it up when there is more certainty as to how many areas are impacted

quote="Little snowy old me;116163494"]Anyone else getting nervous that this is going to go pear shaped in the next 24 hours? Met E were more upbeat yesterday....

I have noticed this before. Met Eireann are usually very cautious right up to the day before an easterly starts. We are still 3 days away from this event and how well the Irish sea produces streamers and their intensity is not really known at this time.

KungPao

Mimon wrote: »

What are you basing this on?

Just a feeling/fear that it’ll run out of gas after burying the UK. I can picture it now, BBC news showing videos of abandoned trucks on impassable motorways in Yorkshire, Newcastle and Scotland, while over the Irish Sea, a few overnight flurries here and there that melt during the afternoon.

I’ll wait until Saturday to believe.

Kermit.de.frog

Gonzo wrote: »

I have noticed this before. Met Eireann are usually very cautious right up to the day before an easterly starts.

And they are right to be. To be fair they don't have the luxury of speculating on more severe scenarios which is the natural way on a weather forum.

Gonzo

squarecircles wrote: »

Hilarious, snow forming off the west coast all drifting out into the North Atlantic,you couldn't script it, its some country.

This is basically the opposite to what happens with cold zonality. In those situations the west and north-west does well with sleet and snow showers. These die out quickly as they cross the country and southern/eastern areas usually stay dry. At the same time the Irish sea produces streamers which head down the Irish sea avoiding eastern coasts and north Wales can get hammered.

Gaoth Laidir

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Seems to be a south easterly flow on both the GFS and ECM. Don't think that will suit me at all here in Wexford. I'd say there will be a Pembrokeshire shadow in operation but Waterford/Cork will do very well out of streamers if this is the case

AuntySnow wrote: »

Wind profile is different to the 850 profile slightly
Wexford has on the 06zgfs ne on Tuesday
Se on wenesday
Get onto the 2m wind chart
Great for South wex in my opinion

Those charts show thickness lines, not 850-hPa geopotential lines. You can't determine the 850-hPa wind from that as the jet in that case would be flowing west-east (lowest thickness always to the left of direction of wind).

Surface charts are not the best for determining steering flow because surface wind crosses the isobars and is not reflective of flow higher up. In this case 850 or 700 hPa would be better, both of which show more of a NE component.

Dial Hard

BrandonBay86 wrote: »

Little gloomy old me

In fairness, I think the "gloom" in a lot of cases is just people trying to manage their expectations. I personally take an "I'll believe it when I see it" approach to snow forecasts because otherwise I get RIDICULOUSLY excited and the disappointment if it doesn't happen or doesn't stick is utterly crushing.

TonyMaloney

How about a quick forecast, Gaoth Laidir?

How do you see the next week panning out?

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Those charts show thickness lines, not 850-hPa geopotential lines. You can't determine the 850-hPa wind from that as the jet in that case would be flowing west-east (lowest thickness always to the left of direction of wind).

Surface charts are not the best for determining steering flow because surface wind crosses the isobars and is not reflective of flow higher up. In this case 850 or 700 hPa would be better, both of which show more of a NE component.

What’s your views on snow potential next week GL?

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

I have seen more positive lads on death row.

"Crucifixion? At least it gets you out in the open"

Humberto Salazar

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Anyone else getting nervous that this is going to go pear shaped in the next 24 hours? Met E were more upbeat yesterday....

No, I'm prepared. I hope not though. Let's just get the cold in. Loads of posts worried about shadows and hills, and whether Mrs Murphy's bloomers out on the washing line will affect snowfall... No point in concerning yourselves for a while on that score.

Oneiric 3

This morning's ECM 'Snow Depth' > 2cm' for between Sunday and Friday next week. As always, don't view these charts as being too literal, but more where any snow showers are more likely to occur based on that run:

Nqp15hhu

The cold air is <60 hours out. Most models show it going right out into the Atlantic about 300-500 miles off the coast. It is not going to be marginal.

Below image; 500m freezing level well out into the ocean.

Gaoth Laidir

TonyMaloney wrote: »

How about a quick forecast, Gaoth Laidir?

How do you see the next week panning out?

I'm still wary of residual warmth and moisture from the warm sector over the UK this weekend, so wouldn't be looking until later Monday and Tuesday for more low-level snow, mostly in the northern half of the country, going on 700 and 500 hPa temperature profiles. But as I've been saying all along, we're on the westernmost periphery of this cold wave, so it will be watered down somewhat, despite what some 850 hPa charts are showing. Actual low-level relative humidity is going to be a deciding factor here. If it's low enough then no problem, but that's not set in stone by any means.

I'm interested in what will come but by no means overawed by it. Wednesday -> Thursday will be the most interesting, but any comparison to 2018 should stop now.

Stevieluvsye

NQpsfetwvhhu143

You'd have an argument in an empty room.

Every day, you're the same. Relentless. Your way or the highway

crx===

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/weather-warning-as-siberian-winds-set-to-bring-significant-snow-1.4475268
Just realised this may require subscription to read...
From Ger Murphy..
Met Éireann forecaster Gerry Murphy said: “Those events do and often cause the weather patterns to adjust where we have a cold airflow coming in over Ireland. It does look like that’s the situation.”

A high pressure area will be situated around Greenland and Iceland and the winds will come clockwise from the east.

“We will have very cold weather for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The winds will feed in showers over the eastern half of the country and those showers will be of sleet and snow,” he said.

“As the cold weather persists, each day and each night will be colder. The showers will become wintery. A fair few of those are likely to be of snow from Sunday into Wednesday.”

Mr Murphy said temperatures during the day will not rise above four degrees and temperatures will fall to minus four at night next week. He cautioned that it was too early to “pin down a number” as to how many centimetres of snow will fall.

“That’s why we have said there will be significant accumulations, but it will be more than a few centimetres,” he stated. “I don’t want to put amounts because it is only going to frighten people at this stage. I can’t give an exact figure .”

There will be frost and ice in the west of the country, but the showers will be mostly coming off the Irish Sea and there is unlikely to be snow.

Mr Murphy cautioned that it was too uncertain to say if conditions will be as bad as they were three years ago

Oneiric 3

AuntySnow wrote: »

Yes but there's a fatal flaw in that
They are referring to the entire country

As they should. They are called 'Met Eireann' and not 'Met East and South Coast'.

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Those charts show thickness lines, not 850-hPa geopotential lines. You can't determine the 850-hPa wind from that as the jet in that case would be flowing west-east (lowest thickness always to the left of direction of wind).

Surface charts are not the best for determining steering flow because surface wind crosses the isobars and is not reflective of flow higher up. In this case 850 or 700 hPa would be better, both of which show more of a NE component.

Thanks
I replied to the comment on wind direction without even looking at the pictures, the 850 charts look similar in colour:D
I'm watching 10m wind direction like a hawk atm though
Fetch is fetch if the air is cold enough and if the source is the same adding an extra 100kms of water can really beef up your lake effect fetch

piplip87

Evelyn was on News at One. Said we could have flurries in east coast Sunday-Monday. Widespread snow more inland on Tuesday.

Later half of next week a storm system approaching and could lead to inclement weather and she will be back on tomorrow to talk about it. Met Eireann are on high alert for next week though.

Ideally I'd like some cold dry days to dry out the swamp my garden has become. Then a nice bit of snow.

Donegal Ken

This is a comment made to today fm by Siobhan Ryan

But Siobhan Ryan from Met Eireann says next week could see a Beast from the East style snowfall;

'Early next week we're looking at dustings of snow for Leinster but really all eyes on midweek next week, that's when there will be a chance or risk of a more significant snow event'

bazlers

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I'm still wary of residual warmth and moisture from the warm sector over the UK this weekend, so wouldn't be looking until later Monday and Tuesday for more low-level snow, mostly in the northern half of the country, going on 700 and 500 hPa temperature profiles. But as I've been saying all along, we're on the westernmost periphery of this cold wave, so it will be watered down somewhat, despite what some 850 hPa charts are showing. Actual low-level relative humidity is going to be a deciding factor here. If it's low enough then no problem, but that's not set in stone by any means.

I'm interested in what will come but by no means overawed by it. Wednesday -> Thursday will be the most interesting, but any comparison to 2018 should stop now.

Looking forward to TAF readings closer to time.

ednwireland

KungPao wrote: »

Just a feeling/fear that it’ll run out of gas after burying the UK. I can picture it now, BBC news showing videos of abandoned trucks on impassable motorways in Yorkshire, Newcastle and Scotland,

been like that since brexit

munsterlegend

Donegal Ken wrote: »

This is a comment made to today fm by Siobhan Ryan

But Siobhan Ryan from Met Eireann says next week could see a Beast from the East style snowfall;

'Early next week we're looking at dustings of snow for Leinster but really all eyes on midweek next week, that's when there will be a chance or risk of a more significant snow event'

Good to see the professionals in Ireland on board rather than us exaggerating it!

Gaoth Laidir

AuntySnow wrote: »

Thanks
I replied to the comment on wind direction without even looking at the pictures, the 850 charts look similar in colour:D
I'm watching 10m wind direction like a hawk atm though
Fetch is fetch if the air is cold enough and if the source is the same adding an extra 100kms of water can really beef up your lake effect fetch

There is a lot of misreading of charts lately, I notice. Many people just seem attracted to blue colours and don't read what is actually being shown (most often with the Meteociel SPL/500 hPa chart, mistaking colours for thickness instead of 500-hPa geopotential). Read the small print!

Nabber

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

As they should. They are called 'Met Eireann' and not 'Met East and South Coast'.

National weather service covering the nation. Surely people can be outraged by that.

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There is a lot of misreading of charts lately, I notice. Many people just seem attracted to blue colours and don't read what is actually being shown (most often with the Meteociel SPL/500 hPa chart, mistaking colours for thickness instead of 500-hPa geopotential). Read the small print!

Just follow the ECM snow depth charts for next week and you can’t go wrong )