Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Captain Snow

leahyl wrote: »

Not in Cork it isn't! :mad:

Everything is going to be OK :)

TheMilkyPirate

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I'm still wary of residual warmth and moisture from the warm sector over the UK this weekend, so wouldn't be looking until later Monday and Tuesday for more low-level snow, mostly in the northern half of the country, going on 700 and 500 hPa temperature profiles. But as I've been saying all along, we're on the westernmost periphery of this cold wave, so it will be watered down somewhat, despite what some 850 hPa charts are showing. Actual low-level relative humidity is going to be a deciding factor here. If it's low enough then no problem, but that's not set in stone by any means.

I'm interested in what will come but by no means overawed by it. Wednesday -> Thursday will be the most interesting, but any comparison to 2018 should stop now.

Well that's knocked the wind out of my sails with regards to snow potential here

munsterlegend

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Well that's knocked the wind out of my sails with regards to snow potential here

Thats quite positive from GL! It’s not 2018 as he said but good potential there especially Wednesday/Thursday!

Little snowy old me

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This the post that made me a bit nervous....

I'm still wary of residual warmth and moisture from the warm sector over the UK this weekend, so wouldn't be looking until later Monday and Tuesday for more low-level snow, mostly in the northern half of the country, going on 700 and 500 hPa temperature profiles. But as I've been saying all along, we're on the westernmost periphery of this cold wave, so it will be watered down somewhat, despite what some 850 hPa charts are showing. Actual low-level relative humidity is going to be a deciding factor here. If it's low enough then no problem, but that's not set in stone by any means.

I'm interested in what will come but by no means overawed by it. Wednesday -> Thursday will be the most interesting, but any comparison to 2018 should stop now

nacho libre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The longer (or further south) the better.

For you, yes, as it prolongs the cold spell. For others who won't profit from the easterlies, it could be painful as the promise of a significant snow fall disappears. I for one was looking forward to leaping around the room, next Tuesday at 9:30pm , while Gerry has a stern look on his face as he mentions significant snowfall is likely across the country on Wednesday into Thursday. Although Gerry would probably ring in sick that day.

leahyl

Captain Snow wrote: »

Everything is going to be OK :)

But I want the pink! It's green further south - not as heavy

TonyMaloney

Little snowy old me wrote: »

This the post that made me a bit nervous....

I'm still wary of residual warmth and moisture from the warm sector over the UK this weekend, so wouldn't be looking until later Monday and Tuesday for more low-level snow, mostly in the northern half of the country, going on 700 and 500 hPa temperature profiles. But as I've been saying all along, we're on the westernmost periphery of this cold wave, so it will be watered down somewhat, despite what some 850 hPa charts are showing. Actual low-level relative humidity is going to be a deciding factor here. If it's low enough then no problem, but that's not set in stone by any means.

I'm interested in what will come but by no means overawed by it. Wednesday -> Thursday will be the most interesting, but any comparison to 2018 should stop now

Are you ok?

That was quite clearly a GL ramp

Captain Snow

munsterlegend wrote: »

It’s the GFS run which is much more progressive in bringing milder conditions in! I prefer ECM at the moment.

True. I prefer the ECM too.
Its really just to display what can happen.
Just a visual representation for everyone to see.

It will now be a nowcast soon enough.

Heres the other thing....Milder weather may not break through:eek:

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's coming Anti Snow, it's coming...

I do love your Xmas tree light presentations

Regarding Evelyn Cusack,She is a coldie who Enjoys a glass of WHITE wine with charts like these

Calibos

Tis far from Anti-Snow is our AuntySnow...

Nqp15hhu

nacho libre wrote: »

For you, yes, as it prolongs the cold spell. For others who won't profit from the easterlies, it could be painful as the promise of a significant snow fall disappears. I for one was looking forward to leaping around the room, next Tuesday at 9:30pm , while Gerry has a stern look on his face as he mentions significant snowfall is likely across the country on Wednesday into Thursday. Although Gerry would probably ring in sick that day.

Well the alternative is wind and rain. I know what I’d rather have.

Larbre34

So, Met É, are they being realistic or in denial?

Calibos

Larbre34 wrote: »

So, Met É, are they being realistic or in denial?

Overly Cautious as usual IMHO

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

For you, yes, as it prolongs the cold spell. For others who won't profit from the easterlies, it could be painful as the promise of a significant snow fall disappears. I for one was looking forward to leaping around the room, next Tuesday at 9:30pm , while Gerry has a stern look on his face as he mentions significant snowfall is likely across the country on Wednesday into Thursday. Although Gerry would probably ring in sick that day.

He’ll cop out and just say very heavy sleet or wintry falls.

Davaeo09

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Well the alternative is wind and rain. I know what I’d rather have.

You are basically asking for your small section of Ireland to be preferred to the hundreds of us here from the rest of Ireland.
Lets hope the majority of us here get some thing, yourself included.

YanSno

Donegal Ken wrote: »

At this stage I wouldn't be looking that far ahead especially 7 days out as they potential risk area could change. Already on 24 hours we have seen some big changes on models.

It doesn't matter. This is how this cold snap will break down, it can happen any day of the week.

nacho libre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Well the alternative is wind and rain. I know what I’d rather have.

You're right, significant snowfall for a good section of the country is best. I salute your generous attitude!

munsterlegend

Captain Snow wrote: »

True. I prefer the ECM too.
Its really just to display what can happen.
Just a visual representation for everyone to see.

It will now be a nowcast soon enough.

Heres the other thing....Milder weather may not break through:eek:

The U.K. Met office don’t see any real breakdown in their latest update this afternoon. That’s a positive anyway.

Little snowy old me

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Are you ok?

That was quite clearly a GL ramp

He's usually spot on which adds to my downbeat mood.

The fields beside me are flooded and the garden is very squelchy. All want is a bit of snow. Or failing that a good hard frost.

TheMilkyPirate

munsterlegend wrote: »

Thats quite positive from GL! It’s not 2018 as he said but good potential there especially Wednesday/Thursday!

Streamers are hit and miss and I just have a feeling that the frontal snow if it does materialise will be a snow to rain even down here which tbf, is pretty useless. Hopefully I'm wrong and we see some upgrades over the next few days.

igCorcaigh

This is all great fun!

Let's see how it plays out.
It's one of the great things about forums, is that we can have this chat.

But it's nothing like weather itself, however it turns out to be, that's the real fascinating thing!

bazlers

Its like this. Its ireland. Its 60/ 40
60% a wet mess 40% winter wonderland and they are generous odds as it might not even materialise yet.
Obviously hoping we are buried for days.

Easterlies are more conducive for proper snow i feel.

munsterlegend

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Streamers are hit and miss and I just have a feeling that the frontal snow if it does materialise will be a snow to rain even down here which tbf, is pretty useless. Hopefully I'm wrong and we see some upgrades over the next few days.

Yeah same down here. Atlantic incursion usually means rain without any snow.

Slashermcguirk

I think it is pretty locked in at this point, just a case of how much snow and where exactly it falls within the country on each given day. obviously the early days of the week favour the east but it could be a more widespread event from Wednesday.

bazlers wrote: »

Its like this. Its ireland. Its 60/ 40
60% a wet mess 40% winter wonderland and they are generous odds as it might not even materialise yet.
Obviously hoping we are buried for days.

Easterlies are more conducive for proper snow i feel.

Oneiric 3

Frontal snow to eventually rain events seem to have become a thing of the past. I remember they were more common place in the 90s. Last memorable one I recall was around 2006 or 2007 or around that time, a full on blizzard for a number of hours (and had the stall the car a few times while driving home in it) and even when long after it had turned to rain, there was still several inches on the ground the next day.

Nqp15hhu

nacho libre wrote: »

You're right, significant snowfall for a good section of the country is best. I salute your generous attitude!

I didn't say that at any point. I referred to preferring that the systems stay away from the island to retain the cold air, which will limit wind and rain.

TheMilkyPirate

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Frontal snow to eventually rain events seem to have become a thing of the past. I remember they were more common place in the 90s. Last memorable one I recall was around 2006 or 2007 or around that time, a full on blizzard for a number of hours (and had the stall the car a few times while driving home in it) and even when long after it had turned to rain, there was still several inches on the ground the next day.

We done well out of storm Emma here but that just stalled off the east coast and buried us

Tyrone212

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Frontal snow to eventually rain events seem to have become a thing of the past. I remember they were more common place in the 90s. Last memorable one I recall was around 2006 or 2007 or around that time, a full on blizzard for a number of hours (and had the stall the car a few times while driving home in it) and even when long after it had turned to rain, there was still several inches on the ground the next day.

Last February, it was a Sunday night. Had a snow to rain event. Was quite deep. 5 inches then it turned to rain. Also had one the previous March. And the December before that.

bazlers

I was speaking of the frontal event slasher. Difficult to trust them.

Nqp15hhu

Davaeo09 wrote: »

You are basically asking for your small section of Ireland to be preferred to the hundreds of us here from the rest of Ireland.
Lets hope the majority of us here get some thing, yourself included.

No, I said that I would prefer low pressure systems stay away because they usually end the cold spell, or moderate the strength of the cold pool. As someone said previously, they also cut down shower activity ahead of the low.

It is better to keep a sustained cold spell, than to have a low come in and introduce mild, wet weather. Even if your area doesn't receive snow, the weather will be calm and crisp.