Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

leahyl

iPhone still saying 70% chance of snow for Cork on Wednesday.....for Dublin it now has just cloud for next few days....interesting

Slashermcguirk

Those apps are fairly patchy to say the least

leahyl wrote: »

iPhone still saying 70% chance of snow for Cork on Wednesday.....for Dublin it now has just cloud for next few days....interesting

Gaoth Laidir

bazlers wrote: »

This must be the longest run in to an event in the history of events. Seems like its going on a month and we are still a few days off:pac::pac:

I never quite got why we had a "build-up" thread set up more than 1 week away from something when there already are the >120 and <120 threads for that. And then there's talk of another "event" thread being set up.

It's all very scattered and really builds up people's expectations that we're in for a.2018 when we're not.

leahyl

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Those apps are fairly patchy to say the least

Oh I know, just stirring :-P

bazlers

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I never quite got why we had a "build-up" thread set up more than 1 week away from something when there already are the >120 and <120 threads for that. And then there's talk of another "event" thread being set up.

It's all very scattered and really builds up people's expectations that were in for a.2018 when we're not.

In 2018 i distinctly remember asking you what you though of the upcoming event and you replied "I think its the dogs B#$%@X&quot;..:) good times.

Mount Vesuvius

It's a few days of weather cold enough for snow with any precipitation. Potential snowstorm on Wednesday before it turns milder.
Absolutely fantastic, delighted with that. This was never anything more. So enjoy it.

squarecircles

For balance...

Its complete garbage.

And there's no snowstorm.

Mount Vesuvius

squarecircles wrote: »

For balance...

Its complete garbage.

And there's no snowstorm.

For balance, Man up.

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The extent of snow through central counties might be fairly robust as some guidance shows the streamers still intact upon reaching Galway. In these setups there are places in the southwest and northwest that often miss out on snow and also remain a bit more temperate.

This is true from MT , but why is that exactly? Why does streamers make it all the way to Galway and not to Sligo or S/SW Donegal for example.

Stevieluvsye

Pangea wrote: »

This is true from MT , but why is that exactly? Why does streamers make it all the way to Galway and not to Sligo or S/SW Donegal for example.

Wind direction.

Pangea

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Wind direction.

But even on a straight easterly direction you would think Sligo would get some as there is still a good portion of Irish Sea adjacent.

ninebeanrows

Nothing has changed much this morning apart from the operational runs moving towards the milder clusters from Thursday, but that was always favoured. However, checking out the EC ensembles a similar number to yesterday maintain cold past Thursday (around 20-30% of members)

In the medium term Sunday night, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday have an airmass in place sufficient for snowfall and an easterly flow over the Irish Sea.

I think we would have taken this last week if offered! Let's see how the higher res models begin to handle the precip forecasts over the next few days.

Davaeo09

Pangea wrote: »

But even on a straight easterly direction you would think Sligo would get some as there is still a good portion of Irish Sea adjacent.

I don't know if its similar to the way Carlow some times blocks Kilkenny and I know there is ALLOT more distance, but I know my cousins near Carrickmacros in Monaghan always seemed to do well with snow. Even during out 00's drought.
Some thing to do with the topography? Lot's of hills and lakes before it would get to Sligo?
Sorry if I am talking out my ar** :pac:

speckle

Is there a technical weather name for the mixture of hail, sleety rain which disappears or only leaves clumps of white on the ground, that Ireland sometimes has...if you know what I mean like?

Just had a shower of sleet that turned to hail then a smigeon of rain here...

mcburns07

speckle wrote: »

Is there a technical weather name for the mixture of hail, sleety rain which disappears or only leaves clumps of white on the ground, that Ireland sometimes has...if you know what I mean like?

Just had a shower of sleet that turned to hail then a smigeon of rain here...

Mixed precipitation

Tabnabs

bazlers wrote: »

This must be the longest run in to an event in the history of events. Seems like its going on a month and we are still a few days off:pac::pac:

Back in 2010 I was standing in a 53 Degrees North shop in late November asking them to take a sledge down off the top shelf for me. The looked at me funny when I said that some guy on the internet (MTC) said we're going to get a lot of snow in two weeks time. :pac:

Squidvicious

Tyrone212 wrote: »

I'm not complaining. I posted the snow accumulations charts from the ecm and gfs for next week both of which are currently poor. Thats a fact. Complaining about said charts led to this discussion.

It can still improve but they usually overcook snow accumulations projections from far out. Some people are just to childish too accept what the charts are currently showing. It'll all end in tears if they turn out to be correct. I take it you're another one? Are you related to the other southern guy who's always complaining? You sound like him.

I think that you make a completely reasonable point that the snow accumulation charts aren't showing a whole lot of snowfall for anywhere in Ireland. However, those charts are quite unreliable at this range, especially for convective type snowfall so I wouldn't be writing anything off at present(not saying you are either). We've got an airflow cold enough for snow and we'll have lowish pressure in place too so I would hope that the airstream might not be quite as dry as those charts currently suggest. We've got a decent chance of snow, more especially in Eastern areas. But I certainly wouldn't be counting my snowmen either and it's notable that the Met Eireann forecast is hedging its bets.

Slashermcguirk

Met Éireann did say significant snowfall for Leinster

Squidvicious wrote: »

I think that you make a completely reasonable point that the snow accumulation charts aren't showing a whole lot of snowfall for anywhere in Ireland. However, those charts are quite unreliable at this range, especially for convective type snowfall so I wouldn't be writing anything off at present(not saying you are either). We've got an airflow cold enough for snow and we'll have lowish pressure in place too so I would hope that the airstream might not be quite as dry as those charts currently suggest. We've got a decent chance of snow, more especially in Eastern areas. But I certainly wouldn't be counting my snowmen either and it's notable that the Met Eireann forecast is hedging its bets.

Squidvicious

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Met Éireann did say significant snowfall for Leinster

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast
They did indeed say that on Wednesday but it's a bit watered down yesterday and this morning. The emphasis is on scattered showers and dustings of snow. Tuesday suggests a bit more activity with mention of the showers becoming more widespread. Fingers crossed.

US2

Does Limerick have any chance atall of some snow at any stage? Even a dusting ?

Morning all.

I’m in the NW so not entering into the will it/won’t it snow debate but I was wondering what the temperature will be like in the NW region next week? Will there be ice on the roads? Have carers so trying to forward plan a bit if the roads are too bad for them to get here.

Thanks

Reversal

Squidvicious wrote: »

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast
They did indeed say that on Wednesday but it's a bit watered down yesterday and this morning. The emphasis is on scattered showers and dustings of snow. Tuesday suggests a bit more activity with mention of the showers becoming more widespread. Fingers crossed.

Just to be clear only mention of 'dusting' from Met Eireann is for Sunday night, before the main streamer activity is expected to develop. You are deliberately misrepresenting the ME forecast.

TheMilkyPirate

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I never quite got why we had a "build-up" thread set up more than 1 week away from something when there already are the >120 and <120 threads for that. And then there's talk of another "event" thread being set up.

It's all very scattered and really builds up people's expectations that we're in for a.2018 when we're not.

Tbf I presumed the "build up thread" was to keep chat and memes out of the main model threads.

munsterlegend

Reversal wrote: »

Just to be clear only mention of 'dusting' from Met Eireann is for Sunday night, before the main streamer activity is expected to develop. You are deliberately misrepresenting the ME forecast.

I think the previous mention of any substantial snow was from Wednesday on. They haven’t gone past Tuesday in latest forecast as huge uncertainty with that second low in the Atlantic and just how far north it will make it.

Funsterdelux

Pangea wrote: »

But even on a straight easterly direction you would think Sligo would get some as there is still a good portion of Irish Sea adjacent.

Topography might have something to do with it to. Fairly flat/low lying from Dublin to Galway. But say from Louth to Sligo you have a lot of hilly terrain.

Just a thought

endainoz

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Morning all.

I’m in the NW so not entering into the will it/won’t it snow debate but I was wondering what the temperature will be like in the NW region next week? Will there be ice on the roads? Have carers so trying to forward plan a bit if the roads are too bad for them to get here.

Thanks

I think it's a little early to speculate on actual temperatures just yet. Maybe come back and check the forecast towards the end of the weekend.

Little snowy old me

Little snowy old me wrote: »

It's the uncertainty. On Wednesday, many on here thought this cold event was locked in. Some in here had very upbeat and hyped up forecasts. If people like myself weren't passionate about weather then we wouldn't be in here, we wouldn't be posting about how disappointed we are etc. Yet we get attacked for expressing that disappointment. I want snow. I want to see these predictions and snow forecasts by those in here materialise.

Also you ask 'what the f*** are people complaining about?'.... read your own summary....littered with uncertainty... 'pot luck, 'could', ' probable'.... its a good summary but you can see how it doesn't exactly instil confidence.

Now I'm going to go away for two days and I will return when we are closer to this spell. I hope we all get something out if it, be it snow, frost or just a refreshing ice day. Good luck to all.

Replying to this post here,it was posted in the model thread
The snow is certain
What's not certain is where the showers are
The pot luck is certain,do you know what showers are?
There is confidence that there is going to be a lot of snow especially in parts of Leinster

AuntySnow wrote: »

In a nutshell
Very cold sunday-weak wintry streamers
Mon-wenesday increasingly heavy streamers for many but not all
Some seeing several cm's/white outs/temporary blizzards
Ice days probable for some
Pot luck as to who sees little or none in the favoured areas
Spell of continuous snow possible for many Thursday that could stall leaving some under heavy snow for several hours under a front that may not actually progress fully through meaning rain on its southern side or a thaw for all but this is unresolved as its FI still (but a likely outcome)
What the **** are people complaining about?

Paso Fino

I'm on the East Coast and would honestly be delighted with a few cm - makes up for the awful murky winter we had last year!

spoonerhead

This is so exciting, predicting streamers is more like lake effect snow rather than the usual Atlantic fronts. So expect the GFS and other models to undervalue the amount places will get. During 2010, streamers would pop up very close to the east coast and dump enormous amounts very quickly. I remember following small showers on the radar around Holyhead, which then formed trains that ran from Dublin to Galway!

As with these things, a breakdown will come. However from what I’ve seen the models are “wanting” the normal west to east flow back. So hopefully we can push out the Atlantic for even another few days, 3-5 days of cold and snow is enough for me!

SouthWesterly

Paso Fino wrote: »

I'm on the East Coast and would honestly be delighted with a few cm - makes up for the awful murky winter we had last year!

Problem is that it has to melt and ground around North kerry is already saturated