Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Isle of Man Shadow and the Welsh shadow showing up well on the 06z gfs
Looking good for Dublin
Not so good for the Aunty further down the East Coast
Sth Wexford waterford and Cork coasts looking good Tuesday

Squidvicious

Reversal wrote: »

Just to be clear only mention of 'dusting' from Met Eireann is for Sunday night, before the main streamer activity is expected to develop. You are deliberately misrepresenting the ME forecast.

First off, why would I "deliberately misrepresent" anything? It's not like I'm on commission or something. Did it cross your mind that my post could be my honest opinion? I posted a link to let people decide themselves anyway so it's not like I was concealing the ME forecast. To my mind, Met Eireann isn't expecting much(certainly for the first half of the week) and my post was in reply to somebody who said that ME were forecasting significant accumulations. There is absolutely no suggestion of significant accumulations in the current forecast. Which isn't to say that we definitely won't have significant accumulations.
If you read my earlier post, I also said that it's hard to forecast convective shower activity several days in advance. You mention streamers. They may or may not develop but ME haven't forecasted anything like that yet. As I said though, they are hedging their bets to some degree as they suggest the possibility of more widespread shower activity Tuesday.

HansKroenke

Will be getting the weekly shop done Sunday morning this weekend (Dublin based). Need to top up on coffee and some frozen vegetables since Sunday night onwards for 3 days at least it looks like we'll have snow. Excited WFH so can actually enjoy it!

GooglePlus

HansKroenke wrote: »

Will be getting the weekly shop done Sunday morning this weekend (Dublin based). Need to top up on coffee and some frozen vegetables since Sunday night onwards for 3 days at least it looks like we'll have snow. Excited WFH so can actually enjoy it!

Do you think it could be significant enough to impact travel or are you just playing it safe? Would love a dumping.

GooglePlus

GooglePlus wrote: »

Do you think it could be significant enough to impact travel or are you just playing it safe? Would love a dumping.

In Dublin from Tuesday quite possibly ,North and Central leinster meath kildare area south Louth and points inland of there on a reducing scale
Short term risk of big disruption midlands north temporarily including Dublin Thursday but that latter bit subject to change
The above is my best guess as of this morning
I may change that view

Funsterdelux

GooglePlus wrote: »

Do you think it could be significant enough to impact travel or are you just playing it safe? Would love a dumping.

You shouldnt hold it in, or perhaps eat more fibre.

Tyrone212

Update from met.ie

SUNDAY NIGHT: Very cold with a widespread frost and ice. Scattered wintry showers will move into the east with a dusting of snow possible. Lowest temperatures of -3 to +1 degrees in moderate easterly winds.

MONDAY: Scattered wintry showers will continue on Monday and Monday night, mainly affecting the east and along north coasts. Bitterly cold with daytime temperatures of 1 to 3 degrees and night-time lows of -3 to 0 degrees, in moderate to fresh east to northeast winds.

TUESDAY: Temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to Monday, but there will be an added wind-chill factor as easterly winds increase fresh and gusty. Wintry showers in the east and near northern coasts at first, but extending to other areas later.

TUESDAY NIGHT: A bitterly cold night with widespread frost and ice as temperatures fall to between -4 and 0 degrees. Most parts of the country will hold dry, with clear spells across the northern half of the country, where temperatures will be lowest. Some wintry showers will be possible in the east and north.

Sounds like a yellow warning for some as it stands.

Zogabomb

Just heard on Newstalk that Met Eireann are briefing Local Authorities about a potential snow event next week. Are they expecting the cold to put up more of a fight I wonder?

Kevhog1988

Hi all, Just in relation to North Kildare how likely are we to get a big amount of snow?. Have sheep in fields and will get sheds ready to take them off the land if its going to be serious during next week. Understand its a bit of an unknown but would the tell tale signs at this stage be for heavy snow fall?. Will need to do the preparation at the weekend if so. Thanks in advance.

munsterlegend

Zogabomb wrote: »

Just heard on Newstalk that Met Eireann are briefing Local Authorities about a potential snow event next week. Are they expecting the cold to put up more of a fight I wonder?

Will likely be snow in most populated area of this island the east coast so makes sense.

Zogabomb

munsterlegend wrote: »

Will likely be snow in most populated area of this island the east coast so makes sense.

I got the feeling it was about the Atlantic weather front meeting the cold air later next week.

Cork2021

Zogabomb wrote: »

I got the feeling it was about the Atlantic weather front meeting the cold air later next week.

It’s something to keep an eye on. Met Eireann have either been told they’ve been too cautious or over the top. They’ll update forecasts as they see them, but it does sound as if they see something we don’t. Especially if briefing local authorities on a possible significant snow event next week.

munsterlegend

Zogabomb wrote: »

I got the feeling it was about the Atlantic weather front meeting the cold air later next week.

Yeah no harm I suppose. As to what happens with that frontal event next Wednesday/Thursday won’t be clear for a few more days. Will it just blast through on current track? Stall? Or drift further south/north? All to be confirmed.

ninebeanrows

Greater Dublin area seems primed for decent streamer action from lunchtime Monday until Wednesday. Latest models would point to disruption, fairly widespread 10cm cover by Wednesday morning

Kevhog1988

Kevhog1988 wrote: »

Hi all, Just in relation to North Kildare how likely are we to get a big amount of snow?. Have sheep in fields and will get sheds ready to take them off the land if its going to be serious during next week. Understand its a bit of an unknown but would the tell tale signs at this stage be for heavy snow fall?. Will need to do the preparation at the weekend if so. Thanks in advance.

I would make the preparations because the risk in your area is high enough
If it doesn't happen, happy days for you but it's a strong enough risk

HansKroenke

GooglePlus wrote: »

Do you think it could be significant enough to impact travel or are you just playing it safe? Would love a dumping.

I'm just going off what I've read so far which is that it will be bitterly cold from Sunday with potentially significant snowfalls overnight Sunday. I'm not planning on being snowed in or anything but just for not being able to walk without worrying of slipping on ice and definitely not being able to drive. I just need my coffee and some frozen food so won't need to hit the shops!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/snow-and-sub-zero-temperatures-forecast-for-next-week-1.4476963

mumo3

You can feel the change out there now, just been outside and there is a sharp cold in the air...... but I still refuse to let myself get too excited about it, but there will be many candles lit over the next few days... may even throw in an aul Novena

mumo3

HansKroenke wrote: »

I'm just going off what I've read so far which is that it will be bitterly cold from Sunday with potentially significant snowfalls overnight Sunday. I'm not planning on being snowed in or anything but just for not being able to walk without worrying of slipping on ice and definitely not being able to drive. I just need my coffee and some frozen food so won't need to hit the shops!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/snow-and-sub-zero-temperatures-forecast-for-next-week-1.4476963

I find normally when you see these reports in papers and MET Eireann get excited, its like a jinx!! it seems to just go nowhere

Gaoth Laidir

This is the current 850-hPa situation from today's 12Z balloon ascents. What's nice about these is that they give the dewpoint at that level too, which gives an idea of the dryness and hence the ultimate limit on precipitation totals. On the other hand, dryness at that level also means more vigorous low-level convection, so again, it's a balance of a lot of variables.

Note the -17 dewpoint from the Ekofisk platform balloon in the middle of the North Sea. The actual sounding shows that that's just one limited hydrolapse (dry layer) right at that level. Above and below that layer the dewpoint and hence moisture is much greater. That's why looking at current soundings of what's upstream is so more important than looking at individual frames for 5 days from now.

Note the southeasterly wind direction too, so those cold temperatures are not yet advecting westwards. We need that low over the UK to slide southwards for and drag those winds to a more westerly or southwesterly component over the weekend.

Nqp15hhu

-11c 850hPa and still 1c in Lerwick! It would seem you need far lower for an ice day (not with fog)!

gozunda

mumo3 wrote: »

You can feel the change out there now, just been outside and there is a sharp cold in the air...... but I still refuse to let myself get too excited about it, but there will be many candles lit over the next few days... may even throw in an aul Novena

Its like a beautiful spring day in Cork here ...

sdanseo

GooglePlus wrote: »

Do you think it could be significant enough to impact travel or are you just playing it safe? Would love a dumping.

1mm of snow is enough to send most drivers in Dublin into road rage and clutch-murdering abuses of the accelerator.

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

-11c 850hPa and still 1c in Lerwick! It would seem you need far lower for an ice day (not with fog)!

Depends on the local pressure as well.

Chalkitdown147

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This is the current 850-hPa situation from today's 12Z balloon ascents. What's nice about these is that they give the dewpoint at that level too, which gives an idea of the dryness and hence the ultimate limit on precipitation totals. On the other hand, dryness at that level also means more vigorous low-level convection, so again, it's a balance of a lot of variables.

Note the -17 dewpoint from the Ekofisk platform balloon in the middle of the North Sea. The actual sounding shows that that's just one limited hydrolapse (dry layer) right at that level. Above and below that layer the dewpoint and hence moisture is much greater. That's why looking at current soundings of what's upstream is so more important than looking at individual frames for 5 days from now.

Note the southeasterly wind direction too, so those cold temperatures are not yet advecting westwards. We need that low over the UK to slide southwards for and drag those winds to a more westerly or southwesterly component over the weekend.

This is the content I'm here for!! Help me learn....

So this means that we maybe struggling for precipitation for a big snow event but if the conditions are just right then convection from the Irish sea could be the main producer if snow ie streamers??

munsterlegend

gozunda wrote: »

Its like a beautiful spring day in Cork here ...

Nippy enough out earlier i thought in north cork.

Larbre34

Are the temps dropping earlier than forecast. Yesterday Midday 9C, today Midday 4C where I am?

Nqp15hhu

Larbre34 wrote: »

Are the temps dropping earlier than forecast. Yesterday Midday 9C, today Midday 4C where I am?

No, I am north of you and warmer than that. The cold air will arrive here tomorrow evening and in the early hours further south.

There is a low circulating around the BI, the west of Ireland is under a marginally colder flow, owing to its position on the western side of the low.

Nqp15hhu

Chalkitdown147 wrote: »

This is the content I'm here for!! Help me learn....

So this means that we maybe struggling for precipitation for a big snow event but if the conditions are just right then convection from the Irish sea could be the main producer if snow ie streamers??

Looking at the models Tuesday appears to be the best day for snow showers. Some show the showers penetrating well inland.

munsterlegend

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Looking at the models Tuesday appears to be the best day for snow showers. Some show the showers penetrating well inland.

Yep the GFS did this morning anyway.

Gaoth Laidir

Chalkitdown147 wrote: »

This is the content I'm here for!! Help me learn....

So this means that we maybe struggling for precipitation for a big snow event but if the conditions are just right then convection from the Irish sea could be the main producer if snow ie streamers??

Correct. For the early days of next week it will be purely sea convection that we'll be relying on. TPW (Total Precipitable Water) further upstream over Scandinavia is only of the order of 2 mm or less, meaning that if all the water vapour in the vertical column were to condense out it would only "rain" 2 mm. Very dry. The airmass will, of course, pick up moisture from the seas on its way here.

Chalkitdown147

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Looking at the models Tuesday appears to be the best day for snow showers. Some show the showers penetrating well inland.

The wind speed predicted to be around 15 knots, I think I read somewhere that anything between 20 and 25 are ideal. Will this factor in the intensity of these streamers?? Again sorry for all the noob questions