Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Tyrone212

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Ecm snow accumulation at T120

North leinster and South East Ulster with a dusting.

Greatest depth 0.8 inch north leinster. 2cm

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/ireland/snow-depth-in/20210210-1200z.html

They tend to get streamers wrong. That’s enough for me anyhoo. I just need enough to get the kids into snowball fights and snowmen building.

TTLF

Quick Question here:

I'm A Bit worried about ECM's wind direction though and the lack of a deeper cold pool for troughs over the Irish sea for streamers but it's still 3 days away so.. likely to change?

The Snow depths on the chart posted by Tyrone don't look great from streamers either since the direction doesn't give great streamers...

lucernarian

[Deleted User] wrote: »

All that was ever guaranteed was the 3-4 day cold and snow event which is still happening.

There's nothing in that Met Éireann advisory that rules in or out whether they are expecting a major snow event, only that snow showers can be expected. What sounds like a major event will vary from person to person, you know like opinions generally.

Still an exciting start and looks like the first advisory with more to come. But nothing is ever guaranteed in weather forecasting.

Oneiric 3

One thing that might help the odd light flurry making it over to the west from this set up is the saturated land at the moment. Dry air and a keen breeze will likely help evaporation and maybe keep some of the showers sustained a bit longer as they track westwards. The worst case scenario though, and one that is far more likely, is that it will just keep a sustained layer of low cloud on the go.

lucernarian

lucernarian wrote: »

Where have Met Éireann used or described a "major snow event" in that alert???

The thread title hasn’t said that. It’s not even coloured yet. Not even level 1.

A few people have maybe said it based on their reading of the models. That’s fairly standard on weather threads.

Dazler97

Dial Hard wrote: »

I live about five minutes from the Hellfire Club normally. Came down to my family home in Templeogue for lockdown but I'm sorely tempted to move back home this weekend...

Yes but what if its too deep that you can't get down to your family, yes I would love to see the view from hell fire, that would be amazing

lucernarian

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

One thing that might help the odd light flurry making it over to the west from this set up is the saturated land at the moment. Dry air and a keen breeze will likely help evaporation and maybe keep some of the showers sustained a bit longer as they track westwards. The worst case scenario though, and one that is far more likely, is that it will just keep a sustained layer of low cloud on the go.

My understanding was that for the same parcel of air passing over water, moister air was better in the first place for shower generation. Overly dry air prolongs the sea fetch needed (and events like 2010 supported what I understood). There's energy involved in evaporating water before convection can do its job of generating snow showers. Typically, moist air is gonna be warmer air in these setups but I'm not sure if the converse will mean lots of snow.

Dazler97

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The thread title hasn’t said that. It’s not even coloured yet. Not even level 1.

A few people have maybe said it based on their reading of the models. That’s fairly standard on weather threads.

Exactly i agree completely, I'm estimating 15cm of snow on lower levels and 40cm up the Mountains, again that's just my opinion and I hope I'm right.

Squidvicious

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Ecm snow accumulation at T120

North leinster and South East Ulster with a dusting.

Greatest depth 0.8 inch north leinster. 2cm

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/ireland/snow-depth-in/20210210-1200z.html

That emphasises that there are no guarantees about how much snow we'll get. However, those charts are unreliable at this range and especially when it's convective snowfall you're talking about. So I certainly wouldn't be writing anything off yet based on those charts.

squarecircles

More widespread snow on thursday.

Michelle dillion on 6.1 forecast.

lucernarian

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The thread title hasn’t said that. It’s not even coloured yet. Not even level 1.

A few people have maybe said it based on their reading of the models. That’s fairly standard on weather threads.

Are you replying to the right post?

What was I was discussing was the met eireann advisory and how significant it might be - it didn't imply any major snow event was expected, just my 2c.

Nqp15hhu

TTLF wrote: »

Quick Question here:

I'm A Bit worried about ECM's wind direction though and the lack of a deeper cold pool for troughs over the Irish sea for streamers but it's still 3 days away so.. likely to change?

The Snow depths on the chart posted by Tyrone don't look great from streamers either since the direction doesn't give great streamers...

There is a deep cold pool. It will be -9c to -11c for 4 days at 850hPa, all showers will be of snow.

Nqp15hhu

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

One thing that might help the odd light flurry making it over to the west from this set up is the saturated land at the moment. Dry air and a keen breeze will likely help evaporation and maybe keep some of the showers sustained a bit longer as they track westwards. The worst case scenario though, and one that is far more likely, is that it will just keep a sustained layer of low cloud on the go.

I am wondering if that is why the minima are so poor?

Wine Goddess

squarecircles wrote: »

More widespread snow on thursday.

Michelle dillion on 6.1 forecast.

Beat me to it!!!!

And she said showers from an East/NE direction......

*rubs hands together, turns cartwheels......etc.

Oneiric 3

AuntySnow wrote: »

Ecm is a cracker in my opinion
Very close to the Gem
-11 850's over munster and south leinster as late as wenesday
Further day of the breakdown and a snowier one for many

You're easily pleased.

Dazler97

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Beat me to it!!!!

And she said showers from an East/NE direction......

*rubs hands together, turns cartwheels......etc.

Wish I was in firhouse for that, hopefully it makes it to the northwest, sadly its to turn back to rain after Thursday if I'm not mistaken

Oneiric 3

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I am wondering if that is why the minima are so poor?

Very probably, but consider that we still got close to -6.0c in strong winds and heavy cloud back during the easterly of 2018.

Danno

MOD NOTE: Had to remove around 25 posts on here since this morning - please folks, keep it country and less of the bickering. I want to enjoy the build up to this event like most on here and don't want to be wasting my time deleting off topic posts.

Now onwards and upwards on the rollercoaster. Whether or not we get 3cm or 33cm, just enjoy another occasion of snow in Ireland, and I hope everyone gets a slice of the action.

Humberto Salazar

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Ermm I disagree. This is nothing more than precautionary advice. And that's what I said, there is no threat of a major winter snow event. Which is what you want, but unfortunately not what your getting.

[..grabs Humberto by the lapels and shakes him violently...]
"It's going to SNOW! HEAVY, DEEP, SNOW! Say it dammit!!"

tikkamark

Squidvicious wrote: »

I was having a look back at charts from the Beast. I'm in the South East. While I understand all the concern about wind direction, we managed to get a couple of inches of snow here on an easterly before the main event with Emma on the Thursday. In fact the first snow showers arrived here in the Tuesday evening and continued through Wednesday. Straight east shouldn't be ideal for me yet it delivered in 2018. More knowledgeable heads may have an explanation for it but to my mind, it goes to show how unpredictable forecasting rainfall/snowfall can be.

If my memory serves me right we had a lot of cold dry days prior to Emma’s arrival so the ground was dust dry then Emma was a Storm that pushed up from Italy to Spain and France itself a rare occurrence

Danno

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I am wondering if that is why the minima are so poor?

Yes indeed, drier air will lose any daytime heating much easier. In the absence of any breeze, cold pooling and greater temperature drops will result if under clear skies.

During the BFTE build up here we recorded Ireland's coldest temperature of -9.7c for the Winter 2017-18 season. This was caused by winds dropping off and skies clearing over snow-covered ground.

Johnstown in Kilkenny got the clear slot too and dropped to -12.1c but that was recorded on a Vantage Vue so isn't *official*. The cold temperatures recorded by such devices should be allowed to be evaluated because if they are decently sited they cannot under-record cold by much really.

TheMilkyPirate

Are there precip charts for the ECM? Or are they behind a paywall

tikkamark

Danno wrote: »

MOD NOTE: Had to remove around 25 posts on here since this morning - please folks, keep it country and less of the bickering. I want to enjoy the build up to this event like most on here and don't want to be wasting my time deleting off topic posts.

Now onwards and upwards on the rollercoaster. Whether or not we get 3cm or 33cm, just enjoy another occasion of snow in Ireland, and I hope everyone gets a slice of the action.

This and the technical thread were ruined as soon as the cold spell news hit the media....I really enjoyed the knowledgeable people share the technical information up until that point!
I know for a fact there was folks predicting this since early January with the sudden stratospheric warming event,i for one appreciate there efforts and look forward to anything other than the relentless rain we have been getting the past few weeks!

giveitholly

tikkamark wrote: »

This and the technical thread were ruined as soon as the cold spell news hit the media....I really enjoyed the knowledgeable people share the technical information up until that point!
I know for a fact there was folks predicting this since early January with the sudden stratospheric warming event,i for one appreciate there efforts and look forward to anything other than the relentless rain we have been getting the past few weeks!

+1 on this and some posters can't use the quote button properly

Oneiric 3

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Are there precip charts for the ECM? Or are they behind a paywall

One of the best free sources from the Icelandic Met. Scroll down to "Líkan: ecm0125" and seek out the north Atlantic maps:

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/spakort/

Sample:

Oneiric 3

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You're easily pleased.

Horses for courses Mrs

murfo

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You're easily pleased.

if it was easy to get a few cm's of snow in this country, there wouldn't be 66 pages of a dedicated thread. white flakes matter!

Nqp15hhu

Danno wrote: »

Yes indeed, drier air will lose any daytime heating much easier. In the absence of any breeze, cold pooling and greater temperature drops will result if under clear skies.

During the BFTE build up here we recorded Ireland's coldest temperature of -9.7c for the Winter 2017-18 season. This was caused by winds dropping off and skies clearing over snow-covered ground.

Johnstown in Kilkenny got the clear slot too and dropped to -12.1c but that was recorded on a Vantage Vue so isn't *official*. The cold temperatures recorded by such devices should be allowed to be evaluated because if they are decently sited they cannot under-record cold by much really.

I was referring to poor minima as in only -2c or -3c.

https://twitter.com/Schafernaker/status/1357771654961766408?s=09

Oneiric 3

Danno wrote: »

The cold temperatures recorded by such devices should be allowed to be evaluated because if they are decently sited they cannot under-record cold by much really.

I agree with this, but I have read before that the Vue can over do heat in summer and cold in winter. If this is true, perhaps this could be due to is relatively small screen size as it seems much smaller than the classic V2?