Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Neddyusa

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

One thing that might help the odd light flurry making it over to the west from this set up is the saturated land at the moment. Dry air and a keen breeze will likely help evaporation and maybe keep some of the showers sustained a bit longer as they track westwards. The worst case scenario though, and one that is far more likely, is that it will just keep a sustained layer of low cloud on the go.

Yep - give me a blue sky anticylone with a sharp frost anyday over what's forecast for us in Connacht.

Bitter wind and grey skies. :cool:

The only silver lining being that we (just might) get three days without rain out of it.

Humberto Salazar

I think Thursday will be the most interesting day next week. I was hoping for two or three battleground scenarios this time but we'll get only one. It could be disruptive if charts remain the same.

Oneiric 3

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I agree with this, but I have read before that the Vue can over do heat in summer and cold in winter. If this is true, perhaps this could be due to is relatively small screen size as it seems much smaller than the classic V2?

I've both and found them pretty much the same sitting side by side for a while
Not tested in extreme heat but in frosty nights

ninebeanrows

Not too much of a signal for showers from the Irish Sea on latest EC, there are some, especially after Monday lunchtime, seems most stay north of Skerries with the current flow.

TheMilkyPirate

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

One of the best free sources from the Icelandic Met. Scroll down to "Líkan: ecm0125" and seek out the north Atlantic maps:

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/spakort/

Sample:

Perfect thanks

TTLF

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Not too much of a signal for showers from the Irish Sea on latest EC, there are some, especially after Monday lunchtime, seems most stay north of Skerries with the current flow.

was saying earlier, goes to a E SE flow which isn't good for most in wicklow, Dublin and kildare I think,

Apparently the 6 news said it would be NE/E winds throughout those days so i guess it's just another evolution of the winds and only a possible outcome

nacho libre

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

I think Thursday will be the most interesting day next week. I was hoping for two or three battleground scenarios this time but we'll get only one. It could be disruptive if charts remain the same.

With the Vortex dropping deep cold into North America, we were never likely to get two or three battlegrounds events out of this. What we have seen is that this vortex movement has also come at precisely the wrong time as it over rides the likely consequences of the mjo moving to phase 8. Had that happened this low might have under cut to prolong the cold spell. Instead it will most likely stall out west, but throw up heights from Iberia over us which bring back south westerlies. You should try and enjoy what might be instead of focusing too much on whats not going to happen.

KingdomRushed

With the ECM and other such models it is quite rare for them to pick up irish sea streamers properly so I wouldn't worry too much. The pressure looks low enough to deliver in my opinion. And if uppers are scraping -10 should be ok. I think the first night of 2018 cold snap delivered a significant snow event across ****in meath and kildare and at the time many on here felt it wouldn't. I think uppers may have been lower though. -12 to -14 perhaps

KingdomRushed

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

I think Thursday will be the most interesting day next week. I was hoping for two or three battleground scenarios this time but we'll get only one. It could be disruptive if charts remain the same.

I think so too. And I think it will be colder than currently showing. ECM looks good

Chalkitdown147

TTLF wrote: »

was saying earlier, goes to a E SE flow which isn't good for most in wicklow, Dublin and kildare I think,

Apparently the 6 news said it would be NE/E winds throughout those days so i guess it's just another evolution of the winds and only a possible outcome

EDIT: Realize you work for MÉT EIREANN. Well... hopefully it changes...

ESE will hit Kildare, most of west/norrh Dublin. It's true north remember so an ESE won't have much impact on the counties mentioned apart from poor oul Wicklow

TTLF

KingdomRushed wrote: »

With the ECM and other such models it is quite rare for them to pick up irish sea streamers properly so I wouldn't worry too much. The pressure looks low enough to deliver in my opinion. And if uppers are scraping -10 should be ok. I think the first night of 2018 cold snap delivered a significant snow event across ****in meath and kildare and at the time many on here felt it wouldn't. I think uppers may have been lower though. -12 to -14 perhaps

Issue this time is more the wind direction from the Easterly rather than precipitation I think, as sea shadows etc become an issue, but that can change and usually does from run to run so we'll just have to see...

You are correct, I remember at about 3am the snow really started to rise and it was bucketing down here in S.Dublin anyway. Was completely taken off guard by it. I have the rise recorded too.. I posted the video before here but I'll do it again, really showed the power streamers have...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmJhfmPyyxM&ab_channel=Vxlks

TTLF

Chalkitdown147 wrote: »

ESE will hit Kildare, most of west/norrh Dublin. It's true north remember so an ESE won't have much impact on the counties mentioned apart from poor oul Wicklow

Probably south dublin too if you're saying west then...
Although wouldn't the ESE affect North Dublin bc of Anglesey?

Dazler97

TTLF wrote: »

Probably south dublin too if you're saying west then...

I think he means South West Dublin then into kildare

PokeHerKing

TTLF wrote: »

was saying earlier, goes to a E SE flow which isn't good for most in wicklow, Dublin and kildare I think,

Apparently the 6 news said it would be NE/E winds throughout those days so i guess it's just another evolution of the winds and only a possible outcome

EDIT: Realize you work for MÉT EIREANN. Well... hopefully it changes...

Met Eireanns 5 day forecast map has it E/Ne from Sunday through Wednesday with the greater Dublin area and large chunks of the East Coast under continuous streamer action

Larbre34

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Met Eireanns 5 day forecast map has it E/Ne from Sunday through Wednesday with the greater Dublin area and large chunks of the East Coast under continuous streamer action

Magnificent.

Just filled the freezer and all the major alcohol groups. Bring it on TF.

Chalkitdown147

Dazler97 wrote: »

I think he means South West Dublin then into kildare

Yes sorry! How nice is this tho, having a conversation about weather, bouncing opinions off each other and no one getting annoyed ðŸ˜ðŸ˜

Drumpot

When they say east coast do they mean south east or north east? I’m more north near Drogheda but we usually get very little as IOM seems to relieve the clouds of snow!

lucernarian

Drumpot wrote: »

When they say east coast do they mean south east or north east? I’m more north near Drogheda but we usually get very little as IOM seems to relieve the clouds of snow!

From a lot of personal experience, the IOM thing is very overstated - both 2010 and 2018 brought very disruptive snow in and around there. Upper wind direction fluctuates and where one stretch gets it all one day, the next day the showers might head elsewhere.

Also the UK Met office show convergence zones in the North sea on their weather charts and I suspect these are responsible for some of what we see in the Irish Sea too. The north Wales coast could amplify these effects in an easterly wind also.

You'll see streamers coming in off the North Sea into England next week but there will be gaps between them too. And it won't be because there's a pesky island 100 km away in the sea

Dazler97

Chalkitdown147 wrote: »

Yes sorry! How nice is this tho, having a conversation about weather, bouncing opinions off each other and no one getting annoyed ðŸ˜ðŸ˜

Yes I agree, it's just a waste of energy, the weather is my biggest thing think its because of the autism but no point on arguing etc

John.Icy

I'd just relax with worrying about the winds and where the snow will end up for now.

Models were saying mostly E/ENE this morning. Latest guidance has some ESE in there too (but not for the whole Sun-Wed period) due to the low sliding Tuesday coming closer than previous runs. Probably will get a mix of directions in the end. Would equal lower accumulations but better overall spread.

Clearly a fluid situation and we are probably another day or so away from getting a more solid picture on where we are looking for shower activity.

Lucernarian is also right above. The IOM shadow etc. are annoying but I can't remember between 2010 or 2018 where someone ended up under it 100% of the time. It varies. Even without any shadows, you end up with thin strips of precip. coming ashore at the best of times that leave you high and dry while down the road is getting pasted. Such is the nature of these things. If this was a solid one day event fair enough, being left dry will be no craic. But we got Sunday night till maybe Wednesday at this.

May not even have to worry about any of this with how limited some believe snow potential to be

TTLF

Yeah some really lovely possibilities and probably many surprises next week on the weather, makes me excited! Saw the 6.1 news there and the E coast might be primed with showers all day if things go right! I keep underestimating the power of streamers...

I've gone out and taken a few photos for a "Before VS After" shot so I pray to god it snows, but the GDA region looks primed for it.

Really interested on Thursday too... Regardless of it being a possible Snow to Rain event, the 6-ish possible hours of snow would be insane and I'd be out taking tons of photos!

Considering doing another time-lapse again, although I'm not sure when to start it, Sunday night or Monday Afternoon?... :rolleyes:

Burts Bee

I posted yesterday but can anyone give me any hope for limerick/Tipp Borders??

EMPotatohands

Really hope we get enough for a decent snowman and snowball fight in Ballyfermot because I’ve yet again promised my 4 yr old a “good bit” of snow even though 2 weeks ago we got none here and loads of Dublin had a ball. I’ll never learn!! I’m always showing her pics of the fun we had in 2018 but she doesn’t actually remember it no matter how much she lets on ��

Danno

Drumpot wrote: »

When they say east coast do they mean south east or north east? I’m more north near Drogheda but we usually get very little as IOM seems to relieve the clouds of snow!

Met Eireann will generally refer to the island geographically.

East coast is East Antrim down to East Wexford however northeast coast is North and East Antrim and Down, while southeast coast covers south Wicklow, Wexford and east Waterford.

Some counties can transcend boundaries.

Chalkitdown147

Dazler97 wrote: »

Yes I agree, it's just a waste of energy, the weather is my biggest thing think its because of the autism but no point on arguing etc

Your right. Keep the enthusiasm in the weather going and don't let the disagreements sway you from that!! Lamppost watching for the first half of the week should be something to look forward to

SeaFields

EMPotatohands wrote: »

Really hope we get enough for a decent snowman and snowball fight in Ballyfermot because I’ve yet again promised my 4 yr old a “good bit” of snow even though 2 weeks ago we got none here and loads of Dublin had a ball. I’ll never learn!! I’m always showing her pics of the fun we had in 2018 but she doesn’t actually remember it no matter how much she lets on ��

I'm in South Kerry. My kids are buzzing with excitement after hearing it on the news and yet we'll likely get little to none as usual... Enjoy it with your little lady. Special memories!

SleetAndSnow

Is ESE winds not good for us down here in cork too? I remember reading that earlier, or would it have to be purely SE winds really?

During 2018 I remember they came from just below dublin and all the way down, but I doubt that will happen again!

Gaoth Laidir

This was the situation at 18Z. A very sharp frontal zone right through the North Sea. Still a lot of warm moisture to clear from the UK and Ireland over the next day or so to let in the cold from the northeast, but I'm still not convinced that the ground and lowest levels will be dry enough come Sunday and even Monday for snow to stick to any great extent, given the low intensity of the streamers. It would be different if we were already in a cold and dry spell, but right here in Celbridge it's currently foggy with broken skies. I can't see any dry winds to dry that slop away before the arrival of the first streamers.

Hopefully by Tuesday some extra drying and the higher intensity of the streamers will aid accumulations.

925 hPa is at ~650-700 m amsl.

loughside

a marked change in the weather up here, a raw north-easterly has set in, down to 4C (Co. Down)

Dazler97

Chalkitdown147 wrote: »

Your right. Keep the enthusiasm in the weather going and don't let the disagreements sway you from that!! Lamppost watching for the first half of the week should be something to look forward to

Absolutely I'm going to keep up with the weather, I'm not gonna let anyone stop me, I've been interested since aged 7 so 17 years. I'm in Carrick on Shannon but I'll still be lamp post watching on Thursday next as rain pushing in from the southwest should be snow over the country all going well