Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

brookers

EMPotatohands wrote: »

Really hope we get enough for a decent snowman and snowball fight in Ballyfermot because I’ve yet again promised my 4 yr old a “good bit” of snow even though 2 weeks ago we got none here and loads of Dublin had a ball. I’ll never learn!! I’m always showing her pics of the fun we had in 2018 but she doesn’t actually remember it no matter how much she lets on ��

Hope you and your 4 year old get all the snow. I grew up in the mountains of Wicklow and remember making a snowman outside at about 7 in the morning with only my pjs on, nobody knew I was there. My mother found me later that morning, my hands raw and red. Another time I dragged a glass windscreen from an old crock of a car up to the top of mountain and flew down on it on the snow, bumping over rocks not covered by the blizzard, my mother gave out yards and said my bottom could have been sliced open. We had lost sheep in drifts and lots of hardship, frozen water for the cattle and no electricity and snowed in for days with limited supplies but we were used to it.

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Hopefully by Tuesday some extra drying and the higher intensity of the streamers will aid accumulations.

If we don't get a more easterly feed we are out of the game for showers anyhow in Dublin, much of Meath and Kildare. This would be annoying. Great for the border counties though.

Gonzo

Heavy showers in the Irish sea are already making their progress here, of course what falls tonight and tomorrow will be of rain away from high ground.

A fairly lengthy streamer style bands of rain stretching from Manchester, clipping the southern tip of the IOM and making inroads to Dundalk. Another pulse from North Wales heading for Dublin/Wicklow.

Gonzo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If we don't get a more easterly feed we are out of the game for showers anyhow in Dublin, much of Meath and Kildare. This would be annoying. Great for the border counties though.

that's a fairly heartbreaking chart. Yesterday I was in the firing line, today it's looking very poor indeed, still time for a change between now and Monday.

Chalkitdown147

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If we don't get a more easterly feed we are out of the game for showers anyhow in Dublin, much of Meath and Kildare. This would be annoying. Great for the border counties though.

That was going to be my next question to GL. What's it saying re wind direction?? I see Met UK (MET eireann too) have it easterly throughout the week but by the looks of things that cold from is coming a north east direction

Kermit.de.frog

Gonzo wrote: »

that's a fairly heartbreaking chart.

Tell me about it

Still time to avoid!

Kermit.de.frog

It does correct a bit south again but still...any southeasterly element would be annoying

Dazler97

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If we don't get a more easterly feed we are out of the game for showers anyhow in Dublin, much of Meath and Kildare. This would be annoying. Great for the border counties though.

Wow can't believe Dublin is missing out on that, its like I've had cardiac arrest I'm shocked, even more so because even I'm getting snow according to that map

Mimon

Dazler97 wrote: »

Wow can't believe Dublin is missing out on that, its like I've had cardiac arrest I'm shocked, even more so because even I'm getting snow according to that map

Surely these are rough representations of the most probable of possible outcomes. Would imagine still all to play for in all of the Eastern side of the country.

ari101

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If we don't get a more easterly feed we are out of the game for showers anyhow in Dublin, much of Meath and Kildare. This would be annoying. Great for the border counties though.

*snip: see chart above

Normally I'm not too bothered either way about snow (unless I have travelling to do, sorry, but it is true), but I'm invested now, and will be mighty disappointed if we don't get some good big fluffy stuff that sticks (in Dublin)

Come on NE/ENE winds, and the required temp differential, and the pretty purple on the 850 hPa maps, and all the other stuff that goes over my head but sounds great when the people who know talk about it.

Rougies

Still way too early in the game to be pinpointing the favoured areas for streamer activity, the charts will wobble a bit. But in saying that, as a Dubliner the current charts are making me nervous.

YanSno

I don't know where you are getting the south easterly, winds 10m are ENE and E throughout until Late Wednesday night

Gonzo

Rougies wrote: »

Still way too early in the game to be pinpointing the favoured areas for streamer activity, the charts will wobble a bit. But in saying that, as a Dubliner the current charts are making me nervous.

If the current charts verify there won't be much snow in Leinster from streamers, most of it heading into Country Down and maybe parts of Louth. Over the past 3 days it's changed from a north-easterly to an easterly and now a south-easterly.

Hopefully between Monday and Wednesday we get variable easterlies to give most places a chance.

sean555

Cold hanging on that bit longer again on the GFS 18z.

Oneiric 3

Short vid showing how this pattern has been setting itself up over the last couple of days:

https://i.imgur.com/RXQrEgY.mp4

Gonzo

YanSno wrote: »

I don't know where you are getting the south easterly, winds 10m are ENE and E throughout until Late Wednesday night

UKMO/Icon/GEM/ECM is south-easterly. Wales kills the showers for most of Leinster except the very far north.

Arpege and perhaps the GFS is more promising for Meath/Dublin.

Still time for all this to change between now and Monday.

downburst

So many easterlies have a NE aspect to them over the years. I’m hoping for a just south of easterly here in Louth as the mourne mountains so often get in the way. Great dew points, maybe pressure a little high, but hoping for the best here. Too early to tell of course. By the way I’ve been on Netweather since 2007, haven’t involved myself on this site as I’ve too much respect for Roger.

nacho libre

Dazler97 wrote: »

Wow can't believe Dublin is missing out on that, its like I've had cardiac arrest I'm shocked, even more so because even I'm getting snow according to that map

So am I, but i doubt very much that chart will verify as is. I expect it to remain dry here.

esposito

Rougies wrote: »

Still way too early in the game to be pinpointing the favoured areas for streamer activity, the charts will wobble a bit. But in saying that, as a Dubliner the current charts are making me nervous.

This would be a cruel blow if Norn Iron and the border counties got all the streamers. If would be another kind of horror show (not the blowtorch southwesterlies one)

JanuarySnowstor

For Cork a southeasterly nudge is great news as it's brings snow showers across the South coast much like 2018. Gfs now showing prolonged showers hitting the Cork area early Tuesday.
Thursday still up for grabs as the cold fights much harder against the Atlantic

YanSno

Gonzo wrote: »

UKMO/Icon/GEM/ECM is south-easterly. Wales kills the showers for most of Leinster except the very far north.

Arpege and perhaps the GFS is more promising for Meath/Dublin.

Still time for all this to change between now and Monday.

ECMWF, GFS, Arpege has ENE and E throughout. The low sliding down on Tuesday will bring more of a ENE component. Am confident this will be the case, north of Malahide to Drogheda in the firing line.

mickger844posts

Fetch will be all important of course but way to early to call. ENE and East seem like the form horse to Tuesday with maybe Wednesday before a slight SE eliment comes inrto the mix. As is normally the case in these set ups it will be a nowcast situation. One thing i'm sure of is that the Irish Sea will be alive with activity and some lucky folks will do very well.

downburst

YanSno wrote: »

ECMWF, GFS, Arpege has ENE and E throughout. The low sliding down on Tuesday will bring more of a ENE component. Am confident this will be the case, north of Malahide to Drogheda in the firing line.

I’M hoping it works out

Gonzo

GFS 18z certainly gives more hope for snow in Leinster from streamers , it's nowhere as grim as the Icon Chart.

That frontal system for Thursday is primarily snow for midland, northern and eastern areas. Flakes could persist into Friday morning.

Oneiric 3

Best maps to look at for shower travel are the 700 hPa ones, and I remember reading before that showers tend follow streamlines at that level. 850 hPa streamlines are more in unison with cloud base (or lower cloud) direction of travel.

Nqp15hhu

Looking at the 18Z icon. The 200 metre freezing level gets into Northern Ireland during Sunday. So the cold has been “upgraded” (slightly) from that standpoint.

Temps will be barely above freezing with that.

dak

I have been a member of boards since 2006 and an occasional poster to the weather forum... I check Mt's daily forecast daily for years.

What I notice over the last year and not just on boards but on other social media is that there is an increasing amount of antagonism and arguements rather than mutual respect and debate about other people's opinion.

I think lock downs and covid have given us all short fuses when confronted with an alternative view to our own. I have even seen it in this thread after reading every post since it started.

Think we should all chill out, pause before we post and remember this weather forum is a place to express our excitement over weather especially snow but not one to kill each other over it.

There are more serious issues in life to deal with!

But let's keep wishing for but waiting for all our snow dreams to come true next week! Where ever you are! ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

Chalkitdown147

Is there anyone keeping tabs on how much the models are chopping and changing?? It's literally every 2nd release. We've gone from a ENE, due E to a SE wind direction and now back to ENE. That should tell us all what's happening, the models are really struggling to nail this one down completely. Exciting times ahead

Mount Vesuvius

As Paddy says , Best to look at the 700hpa , charts for wind direction for clouds as this is the middle layer just over 3000 metres high.

Oneiric 3

This site is so fecking buggy. Almost impossible to use.