Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Cluedo Monopoly

Holy sleet but MTs forecast is epic!

Really looking forward to the next few days!

Tyrone212

mcburns07 wrote: »

Hmm I wonder whose forecasting knowledge is superior? There's some awful ****e posted in these threads but that's right up there.

There's nothing in current guidance to support those totals and models have been consistently showing small amounts of snow for Monday and Tuesday. Certainly no 30cm.

Look you can think it's ****e if you want but I'm afraid it's just reality that it isn't supported by the models.

Calibos

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Holy sleet but MTs forecast is epic!

Really looking forward to the next few days!

...if you live in Meath or Louth

The chan chan man

Pardon my ignorance but who is MT and where can i find these forecasts?

ninebeanrows

ninebeanrows wrote: »

ICON showing potential for the Cardigan Bay shower to set up for Costa del Arklow

We might just miss it if it does
Due east is the llewlyn peninsula at the north of cardigan
Shortest hop to Wales there is

munsterlegend

Tyrone212 wrote: »

There's nothing in current guidance to support those totals and models have been consistently showing small amounts of snow for Monday and Tuesday. Certainly no 30cm.

Look you can think it's ****e if you want but I'm afraid it's just reality that it isn't supported by the models.

Are models not poor in picking out streamer activity? It will be hit and miss but some area will be the sweet spot probably.

Tyrone212

Tyrone212 wrote: »

There's nothing in current guidance to support those totals and models have been consistently showing small amounts of snow for Monday and Tuesday. Certainly no 30cm.

Look you can think it's ****e if you want but I'm afraid it's just reality that it isn't supported by the models.

The Irish sea can be a special beast of its own though
Its always under played in models in my experience, we'll see what happens this time

igCorcaigh

The chan chan man wrote: »

Pardon my ignorance but who is MT and where can i find these forecasts?

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2055579971/493/#post116182946

PokeHerKing

Tyrone212 wrote: »

There's nothing in current guidance to support those totals and models have been consistently showing small amounts of snow for Monday and Tuesday. Certainly no 30cm.

Look you can think it's ****e if you want but I'm afraid it's just reality that it isn't supported by the models.

The Irish sea will do its thing when the cold hits us. Science and history tells us this. There will be favoured areas depending on wind direction who will get large dumping off streamers.

Tyrone212

AuntySnow wrote: »

The Irish sea can be a special beast of its own though
Its always under played in models in my experience, we'll see what happens this time

A non emotive response, thanks . Yes we'll see but nothing supports those totals currently in the models. I hope he's right but fear he's not by a long way. We'll agree to disagree.

Reckless Abandonment

Looking at the GFS 6z the wind direction will change as the low goes under. Looks like all along the east coast is in with a shot.

Humberto Salazar

I don't see the big snow totals either, but snow is a nowcast thing sometimes and streamers can build up. We will see who is right. MT seems to see the streamer events as the bigger event than Thursday or Wednesday evenings frontal zone. All to play for. I'm keeping an open mind. For a while anyway.

Slashermcguirk

The Irish Sea produces a lot of snowfall and for some reason time and again the weather models don’t pick these streamers up. Saw it in 2010 and 2018 where they just bubble up in the Irish Sea often it seems out of nowhere. The weather models struggle with them, it’s very strange but they are hard to predict. Look at 2 weeks ago where here in D5 had no snow forecast and we ended up under heavy snowfall for nearly 6 hours and we had about 6cm of snow on the coast. None of the models picked these up properly. If you land in the sweet spot for steamers it’s jackpot

Tyrone212 wrote: »

There's nothing in current guidance to support those totals and models have been consistently showing small amounts of snow for Monday and Tuesday. Certainly no 30cm.

Look you can think it's ****e if you want but I'm afraid it's just reality that it isn't supported by the models.

TTLF

How do we think wind direction looks like today guys? I know it's subject to change but we seem alright for a NE/ENE/E until Wednesday on most models I think for Dublin

the ICON-EU precip range has showers piling into E coast from Lower Wicklow to Louth and a small sea shadow for the direct middle of Wicklow... am I interpreting this correctly? :pac:

Rebelbrowser

Can't help but notice those pouring cold water here are generally located 100km+ from the east or south coasts.....

TTLF

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

The Irish Sea produces a lot of snowfall and for some reason time and again the weather models don’t pick these streamers up. Saw it in 2010 and 2018 where they just bubble up in the Irish Sea often it seems out of nowhere. The weather models struggle with them, it’s very strange but they are hard to predict. Look at 2 weeks ago where here in D5 had no snow forecast and we ended up under heavy snowfall for nearly 6 hours and we had about 6cm of snow on the coast. None of the models picked these up properly

Sorry I don't mean to correct you, but from what I remember you were under that band from roughly 8:30-11:30/12pm... You got about 5-6cm locally in only 3 hours! which is impressive and shows streamers real strength! :D

Gaoth Laidir

I don't want to speak for MT here but I do note that in the US (and maybe Canada), when they speak of total snow they are referring to the sum of the hourly snowfall figures, not necessarily the snow depth at any one time (which will normally be lower, due to melt, compaction, etc.). So 15 cm could mean e.g. a total of fifteen 1-cm hourly falls spread over a few days, or one 15-cm hourly fall, etc. With wet snow, 1 cm works out at about 0.1 mm water equivalent, which is very possible. Drier snow is even less.

So I would imagine he didn't mean depth of lying snow when he said 15 or up to 30 cm. I can't see that happening from streamers at all.

Chalkitdown147

TTLF wrote: »

How do we think wind direction looks like today guys? I know it's subject to change but we seem alright for a NE/ENE/E until Wednesday on most models I think for Dublin

the ICON-EU precip range has showers piling into E coast from Lower Wicklow to Louth and a small sea shadow for the direct middle of Wicklow... am I interpreting this correctly? :pac:

It's been chopping and changing everyday and looks like Sunday night before the experts can get a handle on it. Of course all depends on the low approaching but by the looks of the models over the last few hours it seems to me (and I'm faaaar from an expert) that your correct in a E ENE trend

Slashermcguirk

Snow stopped around 1.30pm

TTLF wrote: »

Sorry I don't mean to correct you, but from what I remember you were under that band from roughly 8:30-11:30/12pm... You got about 5-6cm locally in only 3 hours! which is impressive and shows streamers real strength! :D

TTLF

Chalkitdown147 wrote: »

It's been chopping and changing everyday and looks like Sunday night before the experts can get a handle on it. Of course all depends on the low approaching but by the looks of the models over the last few hours it seems to me (and I'm faaaar from an expert) that your correct in a E ENE trend

yeah that's what I was thinking... if it's E that's a bit meh for me in SCD, but I believe ENE should be fine for streamers right? The wind will change anyhow and probably go NE at times for 1-2 hours also, so we'll just wait and see I guess.

TTLF

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Snow stopped around 1.30pm

oh that's pretty interesting... I was under a little streamer activity from roughly 11-1:00pm but when it started coming down, it was too warm to stick by that point, pretty to document, but disappointed on the inside...

The Oort Cloud

8am on tuesday is looking very good for north county Dublin, the Swords area looks very promising, It's going to be a good one starting on tuesday morning for this area and Balbriggan will be hit with plenty of good snow according to the latest models.

ninebeanrows

Slight movement from the GFS this morning with the cold giving more of a fight and that Scandinavian High beginning to build,

Rebelbrowser

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

My rough and rather childish looking interpretation of the models this morning.
Snow showers pretty much guaranteed in most eastern and northern areas during the early part of next week, and less so further west.

Oneiric, well done on the drawing as it seems to help those new to the forum to understand things. BUT, from all the models, the views of the more expert on here and MTs forecast, think that 90% band should keep going 50km inland all the land around to the Beara Peninsula. Saying the Wexford, Waterford and Cork coasts have the same chance of snow as the Midlands is not true on the models at all. From my IMBY perspective, the concern for a lot of the east coast is whether the have a 150km or whatever fetch given wind direction, but the South coast has a minimum 350km fetch and up to a 500km fetch in South easterlies. My big concern increasingly is wind speed both in terms of streamers forming and then quickly passing through. But again that's where a min 350km fetch becomes invaluable. Right now I'm not sure I'd swop my location here 10km from the Cork coast with anywhere else in Ireland for snow potential on Mon to Wed (though the Leinster east coast definitely better for Sunday and, potentially, to stay the right side of the breakdown on Friday.....)

Gaoth Laidir

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Well for Monday he says

"accumulations of 5-8 cms will be fairly widespread, and 10-15 cms possible"

And then mentions 20 to 30cm for Tuesday.

Personally I can't see that happening. 5-8 cm yes, but much higher than that, maybe high ground near the east coast (like Mount Oriel in Collon) but not to low levels.

squarecircles

[IMG]]https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20210206/06/117/prectypeuktopo.png[/IMG]

Kermit.de.frog

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Slight movement from the GFS this morning with the cold giving more of a fight and that Scandinavian High beginning to build,

Yeah this is still in flux. I don't think this cold spell will end on Thursday or Friday. Could be wrong.

squarecircles

Gaoth Laidir

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Oneiric, well done on the drawing as it seems to help those new to the forum to understand things. BUT, from all the models, the views of the more expert on here and MTs forecast, think that 90% band should keep going 50km inland all the land around to the Beara Peninsula. Saying the Wexford, Waterford and Cork coasts have the same chance of snow as the Midlands is not true on the models at all. From my IMBY perspective, the concern for a lot of the east coast is whether the have a 150km or whatever fetch given wind direction, but the South coast has a minimum 350km fetch and up to a 500km fetch in South easterlies. My big concern increasingly is wind speed both in terms of streamers forming and then quickly passing through. But again that's where a min 350km fetch becomes invaluable. Right now I'm not sure I'd swop my location here 10km from the Cork coast with anywhere else in Ireland for snow potential on Mon to Wed (though the Leinster east coast definitely better for Sunday and, potentially, to stay the right side of the breakdown on Friday.....)

350 km of fetch along the south is an awful lot for low levels to be expected to support snow. The coldest uppers and hence heaviest showers will be in the northern half of the country. Down south you have not only warmer uppers but also warmer seas and closer proximity to residual slop from the current low that's moving away from us.

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

350 km of fetch along the south is an awful lot for low levels to be expected to support snow. The coldest uppers and hence heaviest showers will be in the kort here half of the country. Down south you have not only warmer uppers but also warmer seas and closer proximity to residual slop from the current low that's moving away from us.

And then you go and ruin it all..