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Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat
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Makes sense
This is different to 2010 though
Winds are very strong so less time to pick up moisture for streamers
Winds lower north of Dublin =better
In 2010 there was little or no wind
One shower train on the 23rd dropped the guts of a foot on Arklow alone
It affected gorey to just north of Arklow (about Jack whites to the end of what used be the Gorey bypass)
It had a curl and was an unforecasted shallow low
It just sat there, then rapidly dried out inland
I actually have video of it here somewhere
There was thunder during it that put out the power again
The thunder was frequent in those 2010 streamers
Ahh yes, I cannot remember what date that was, I was only 8 years old at the time! I think it must've been the 22nd or possibly earlier? I remember the thundersnow quite well, one time was in the afternoon as I was sledding whilst the other one was when I was watching Willy Wonka and the big clap of thunder happened and my sisters and their friends all started screaming and ran back into the cul-de-sac in quite a shock
I loved the snow, but I really think the Thundersnow really enlightened my passion for weather, and then the 2011 Flooding on October 24th when Dundrum Shopping Centre was flooded beyond belief!
I have videos of 2010 but I believe they're on an old janky camera I can't find :pac: I do have many recordings from March 2013 onwards though! I will be also documenting this event, and here's to hope SCD gets some snow at least but I think where I live is in a favourable position because I'm still effected by the NCD snow streamer (I think) on Monday night.
Hopefully you get some of the goods in Arklow too, at times they always seem to be the unfortunate ones...0 -
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Yes but look at the constant train out in the Irish Sea, they have to make landfall somewhere.
You said earlier that all we would get is light convective showers on the East Coast and Bone Dry everywhere else, that is as misleading a forecast as someone predicting 30cm of snow, the reality is probably going to be somewhere in between both forecasts
Bottom line, by Ireland's standards this week is going to be interesting and it's been a super time for weather fans
Some half truths there, try harder. Ready over it again and you'll find you are wrong.
I gave a summary on this morning ecm and that summary is correct
"Ecm summary
A few light flurries for areas exposed to an Easterly and bone dry for the rest of the country until a frontal system crosses the country later in the week"
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/ireland/snow-depth-in/20210211-0000z.html
2cm maximum depth on the island at t120.0 -
Ahh yes, I cannot remember what date that was, I was only 8 years old at the time! I think it must've been the 22nd or possibly earlier? I remember the thundersnow quite well, one time was in the afternoon as I was sledding whilst the other one was when I was watching Willy Wonka and the big clap of thunder happened and my sisters and their friends all started screaming and ran back into the cul-de-sac in quite a shock
I loved the snow, but I really think the Thundersnow really enlightened my passion for weather, and then the 2011 Flooding on October 24th when Dundrum Shopping Centre was flooded beyond belief!
I have videos of 2010 but I believe they're on an old janky camera I can't find :pac: I do have many recordings from March 2013 onwards though! I will be also documenting this event, and here's to hope SCD gets some snow at least but I think where I live is in a favourable position because I'm still effected by the NCD snow streamer (I think) on Monday night.
Hopefully you get some of the goods in Arklow too, at times they always seem to be the unfortunate ones...
See my Frowny face I made from the Raintoday Precip map back in 2010. If I made it on the evening of that event and didn't sit on the screenshot for a few days before editing it...then the file properties tell me it was the 21st December 2010.0 -
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lucernarian wrote: »You'd want to provide some evidence of how ICON behaves in past scenarios to show this tendency to stop at the coast.
The issue with ICON is that it's showing a lot of convective potential - even in areas that are most affected by being downwind of Wales - yet the showers mostly stop on the coast, while other models show more limited shower activity but they do progress e.g. in North Leinster and south Ulster. The problem is that ICON seems to be getting something wrong and that doesn't help the forecast's credibility.
The other issue with your claim is the very chart from the very model that has this tendency to stop showers at the coast. Right beside it, in Britain, it shows snowfall accumulations up to 100km inland from the coast...
For the sake of sanity, everyone should stop looking at minute details of the model output. Those charts posted show 1-hour precip accumulations, not simulated radar, so rain/sleet/snow can still be falling in areas that show no accumulation. The resolution of the global models is not fine enough to resolve individual showers, but taking a look at the larger parameters and filling in the gaps yourself will always produce a more accurate forecast.
Here is an example. Simulated radar (for what it's worth) shows precip falling in the northeast, yet the 1-hour precip accumulation barely registers anything.
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I'm from that part of the world, and there's literally like 10 houses near the top. You have the much more populated areas nearby e.g. in Collon proper which are at about 120-150 metres asl. From my experience, any extra snow comes from the somewhat cooler conditions at higher altitude making marginal events less marginal there (like the Atlantic "warm front" of early Dec 2010 and not from any orographic lift effects.I'm in agreement. Whilst 30cm of lying snow is very unlikely as a result of the snow streamers (the possible frontal event is a different kettle of fish), there is of course the chance depths somewhat approaching it could occur in some localised spots that happen to get stuck in snow trains for lengthy periods of time and are also on high ground. Gaoth Laidir mentioned Mount Oriel (@251m ASL) and going by the current forecast that would be one of the prime spots for greater depths. There are some houses above 220m on that hill and the people living there may well see some very decent snow depths.
Whilst I don't think anywhere will reach 30cm, if your location happens to get stuck in a snow train for a couple of days, it could happen. It's unlikely but as it is plausible, I can't disagree with MTs forecast.
With the conditions not being marginal, I'd suspect many places near Drogheda will report 30cm and more by Thursday. But I'll quote myself here if I'm wrong 0 -
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lucernarian wrote: »I'm from that part of the world, and there's literally like 10 houses near the top. You have the much more populated areas nearby e.g. in Collon proper which are at about 120-150 metres asl. From my experience, any extra snow comes from the somewhat cooler conditions at higher altitude making marginal events less marginal there (like the Atlantic "warm front" of early Dec 2010 and not from any orographic lift effects.
With the conditions not being marginal, I'd suspect many places near Drogheda will report 30cm and more by Thursday. But I'll quote myself here if I'm wrong
What I was referring to was the streamer accumulations up to Wednesday. It's a different story with the frontal band on Thursday.0 -
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Not sure why you quoted me there - my point is that one snapshot from ICON can't really demonstrate anything specific, especially when it's basically contradictory. I have been looking at charts for 15 years, I do know what an accumulation chart isGaoth Laidir wrote: »For the sake of sanity, everyone should stop looking at minute details of the model output. Those charts posted show 1-hour precip accumulations, not simulated radar, so rain/sleet/snow can still be falling in areas that show no accumulation. The resolution of the global models is not fine enough to resolve individual showers, but taking a look at the larger parameters and filling in the gaps yourself will always produce a more accurate forecast.
Here is an example. Simulated radar (for what it's worth) shows precip falling in the northeast, yet the 1-hour precip accumulation barely registers anything.
The global models as a whole don't show significant accumulations in these shower setups for Ireland, and that's because they're not designed to handle this. HIRLAM and Euro4 are two models that are designed to handle it much better.0 -
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lucernarian wrote: »Not sure why you quoted me there - my point is that one snapshot from ICON can't really demonstrate anything specific, especially when it's basically contradictory. I have been looking at charts for 15 years, I do know what an accumulation chart is
The global models as a whole don't show significant accumulations in these shower setups for Ireland, and that's because they're not designed to handle this. HIRLAM and Euro4 are two models that are designed to handle it much better.
No, I didn't mean you were wrong. I was more backing up what you were saying about the global models. People focus too much on a single frame of a single parameter from a single level. Weather is 3D (even 4D).0 -
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