Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Slashermcguirk

Rain turns to snow from Sunday evening. Otherwise that chart would be suggesting rain for Ireland and UK

Chong wrote: »

Latest harmonie from Met.ie reporting rain now till Monday


https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1358035671051608067?s=21

HansKroenke

Chong wrote: »

I want snow it’s a welcome distraction but the likes of the Met seem like they are on another planet.

I also want snow and have been too excited about it. But it is clear that Met Éireann are not forecasting it, unfortunately.

cuores

Just had a thought. With all the remote learning for schoolchildren we have probably seen the end of 'snow days'. Schools can just pivot to online for status red warnings. My kids were less than impressed when I suggested this to them!!

Zogabomb

HansKroenke wrote: »

No use of the words "snow" or "accumulations" in any of the Met Éireann forecasts. It's important to note that.

Edit: apart from Sunday night where a light dusting of snow is mentioned.

Monday: Scattered wintry showers will continue to move in from the Irish Sea onto eastern and northern coasts. Bright or sunny spells developing generally and staying mainly dry elsewhere. Daytime temperatures of 1 to 3 degrees in moderate to fresh easterly winds.

Monday night: Wintry showers will become more frequent and push further inland later in the night. Very cold with clear spells and lowest temperatures of minus 3 to zero degrees with a widespread sharp frost under clearing skies. Mainly moderate easterly winds, fresh to strong in the southwest.

Tuesday: Staying very cold with temperatures through the day of plus 1 to 3 degrees in fresh easterly winds, strong on southern coasts. Wintry showers will continue to feed in from the east, affecting mainly the northeast and east with some accumulations possible. More isolated showers will reach further inland. Very cold overnight again with lowest temperatures of minus 4 to zero degrees with severe frost and ice causing hazardous conditions. Winds will ease overnight with fog developing.

Wednesday: Further wintry showers will occur through Wednesday. Daytime temperatures only reaching 2 or 3 degrees for much of the country. Light to moderate easterly winds will freshen on Atlantic coasts towards the evening as a band of rain arrives from the southwest, gradually extending into much of Munster overnight, preceded by falls of sleet and snow. Another very cold night with lowest temperatures of minus 4 to zero degrees.

Further outlook: Very windy on Thursday with further falls of sleet and snow over much of the country, with more persistent rain developing in the southwest. Temperatures will increase towards the weekend.

Slashermcguirk

Then why are met Éireann forecasting snow from Sunday evening onwards?

HansKroenke wrote: »

I also want
snow and have been too excited about it. But it is clear that Met Éireann are not forecasting it, unfortunately.

Villain

Chong wrote: »

Latest harmonie from Met.ie reporting rain now till Monday


https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1358035671051608067?s=21

That version doesn’t show snow it only shows precip, the version that has the rain and snow layers shows snow pushing in from Sunday night. Mainly North Leinster from Dublin upwards for now.

munsterlegend

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Then why are met Éireann forecasting snow from Sunday evening onwards?

Got him there.

Rougies

Chong wrote: »

Latest harmonie from Met.ie reporting rain now till Monday


https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1358035671051608067?s=21

That's just a precipitation chart, it doesn't show the precip type.

Here's an example of their rain/snow chart.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1351894701205573632/photo/1

HansKroenke

Zogabomb wrote: »

Monday: Scattered wintry showers will continue to move in from the Irish Sea onto eastern and northern coasts. Bright or sunny spells developing generally and staying mainly dry elsewhere. Daytime temperatures of 1 to 3 degrees in moderate to fresh easterly winds.

Monday night: Wintry showers will become more frequent and push further inland later in the night. Very cold with clear spells and lowest temperatures of minus 3 to zero degrees with a widespread sharp frost under clearing skies. Mainly moderate easterly winds, fresh to strong in the southwest.

Tuesday: Staying very cold with temperatures through the day of plus 1 to 3 degrees in fresh easterly winds, strong on southern coasts. Wintry showers will continue to feed in from the east, affecting mainly the northeast and east with some accumulations possible. More isolated showers will reach further inland. Very cold overnight again with lowest temperatures of minus 4 to zero degrees with severe frost and ice causing hazardous conditions. Winds will ease overnight with fog developing.

Wednesday: Further wintry showers will occur through Wednesday. Daytime temperatures only reaching 2 or 3 degrees for much of the country. Light to moderate easterly winds will freshen on Atlantic coasts towards the evening as a band of rain arrives from the southwest, gradually extending into much of Munster overnight, preceded by falls of sleet and snow. Another very cold night with lowest temperatures of minus 4 to zero degrees.

Further outlook: Very windy on Thursday with further falls of sleet and snow over much of the country, with more persistent rain developing in the southwest. Temperatures will increase towards the weekend.

Apologies, I didn't pick up on Tuesday.

So we have a "light dusting" on Sunday night, "wintry showers" Monday, "some accumulations possible" on Tuesday (hazardous conditions overnight but more to do with ice I read that as), "wintry showers" Wednesday, band of rain in munster on Wednesday after sleet and snow showers. Outlook for Thursday is snow and sleet showers but persistent rain and rising temperatures by the weekend.

Reading the detailed forecast again, I'm still not seeing Met Éireann giving any decent snow forecast beyond the fact it will be extremely cold until Thursday/Friday but milder by the weekend with some wintry showers, possible small accumulations possible for a day.

Edit: a light dusting on Sunday night and some accumulations possible Tuesday in the East and North East appear to be the only indications of snow, according to ME.

John.Icy

Those ICON charts looks fairly bang on considering what the steering winds will be doing most of the time.

Louth, Down, Meath, North Dub (maybe Lusk northward), Wexford, Waterford and Cork the favoured spots.

Mid and South Dublin best hope we get a better ENE feed at times to give us a chance. Not looking great right now but some time to go still.

Chong

Rougies wrote: »

That's just a precipitation chart, it doesn't show the precip type.

Here's an example of their rain/snow chart.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1351894701205573632/photo/1

Thank you I stand corrected and learning.

lucernarian

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

You do make a good point about that nearby low going under on Tuesday. It may interfere and cut off any convection for the South...yes it could also be sleety by the coast with uppers a tad higher than 2018. Saying that 2018 it snowed on the beach and it was almost March so I do think we are right side of marginal even at the coast. What's more important for places like Cork City is its very hilly and hilly areas should see snow. I think we could see a lot of soft hail / graupel in this type of setup

That's my expectation, as in those conditions even 1km from the coast would be a bit colder, and it wasn't marginal in 2018 there. Whatever about the coasts, I'd be personally excited if living in Cork - but amounts are too early to call yet.

Zogabomb

HansKroenke wrote: »

Apologies, I didn't pick up on Tuesday.

So we have a "light dusting" on Sunday night, "wintry showers" Monday, "some accumulations possible" on Tuesday (hazardous conditions overnight but more to do with ice I read that as), "wintry showers" Wednesday, band of rain in munster on Wednesday after sleet and snow showers. Outlook for Thursday is snow and sleet showers but persistent rain and rising temperatures by the weekend.

Reading the detailed forecast again, I'm still not seeing Met Éireann giving any decent snow forecast beyond the fact it will be extremely cold until Thursday/Friday but milder by the weekend with some wintry showers, possible small accumulations possible for a day.

I'm seeing the most wintry forecast since 2018...

lucernarian

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Latest wet-bulb temperatures. A lot of slop to get rid of before the colder air over the North Sea can make inroads. Need that low over the UK to gtfo.

12Z soundings of 925 hPa (~650-700 m) 850 and 700 hPa temperatures.

Does Castor Bay in Northern Ireland not do radiosonde soundings any more? Or am I not seeing the relevant data for there out of blindness?

Slashermcguirk

Best to wait until tomorrow for met Éireann forecast as they tend to not go into detail more than a few days out. I would think they will have a better feel for the coming days by tomorrow afternoon. They are not going to panic people by calling a massive snowstorm until they are confident exactly where and when. Wednesday / Thursday fall into that category being 4-5 days away. They seem to be suggesting some accumulations in the east by Tuesday night but something much bigger could follow after that. That’s my take on it anyway, some places might have a light snow cover by Monday

HansKroenke wrote: »

Apologies, I didn't pick up on Tuesday.

So we have a "light dusting" on Sunday night, "wintry showers" Monday, "some accumulations possible" on Tuesday (hazardous conditions overnight but more to do with ice I read that as), "wintry showers" Wednesday, band of rain in munster on Wednesday after sleet and snow showers. Outlook for Thursday is snow and sleet showers but persistent rain and rising temperatures by the weekend.

Reading the detailed forecast again, I'm still not seeing Met Éireann giving any decent snow forecast beyond the fact it will be extremely cold until Thursday/Friday but milder by the weekend with some wintry showers, possible small accumulations possible for a day.

HansKroenke

Zogabomb wrote: »

I'm seeing the most wintry forecast since 2018...

To be fair, 2018 was a freak event, for Dublin anyway where snow is such a rarity.

HansKroenke

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Best to wait until tomorrow for met Éireann forecast as they tend to not go into detail more than a few days out. I would think they will have a better feel for the coming days by tomorrow afternoon. They are not going to panic people by calling a massive snowstorm until they are confident exactly where and when. Wednesday / Thursday fall into that category being 4-5 days away. They seem to be suggesting some accumulations in the east by Tuesday night but something much bigger could follow after that. That’s my take on it anyway, some places might have a light snow cover by Monday

I certainly hope it to be the case that they are being conservative until tomorrow, I will be stocking up on cat food, coffee, frozen veg and alcohol anyway today to avoid having to confront the panicked unwashed should they upgrade tomorrow!

nacho libre

Zogabomb wrote: »

Further outlook: Very windy on Thursday with further falls of sleet and snow over much of the country, with more persistent rain developing in the southwest. Temperatures will increase towards the weekend.

They have seemed fairly confident about events after midweek despite some op runs which were less than favourable for frontal snow over recent days. I wonder is this due to forecaster intuition, as well as having access to data we don't see? I presume they and the UKMO share information over events that might cause some level of disruption.

Slashermcguirk

Snow is hardly a ‘rarity’ in Dublin, certainly not common but rarity is a stretch. Have woken up to snow 4 times in Dublin this winter alone, one of which was 6cm of snow just two weeks ago and I am not in one of the traditional snowier parts of Dublin.

HansKroenke wrote: »

To be fair, 2018 was a freak event, for Dublin anyway where snow is such a rarity.

typhoony

I'll be watching closely reports from the east coast of England tomorrow morning especially temperatures, that give us a clearer picture on expected Temps for ourselves late Sunday into Monday morning

lucernarian

HansKroenke wrote: »

I also want snow and have been too excited about it. But it is clear that Met Éireann are not forecasting it, unfortunately.

I don't see that going by their written forecasts. They're not being too specific about it, as these things are hard to predict any more than perhaps hours off. But they do expect snow and some accumulations.

igCorcaigh

Will there be any colour warnings from Met Eireann?

Still just an advisory, but I would expect at least a yellow warning for ice?

munsterlegend

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Will there be any colour warnings from Met Eireann?

Still just an advisory, but I would expect at least a yellow warning for ice?

Probably start being issued from tomorrow onwards or Monday morning.

HansKroenke

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Snow is hardly a ‘rarity’ in Dublin, certainly not common but rarity is a stretch. Have woken up to snow 4 times in Dublin this winter alone, one of which was 6cm of snow just two weeks ago and I am not in one of the traditional snowier parts of Dublin.

Where are you based? I am south dublin city and this is definitely not the situation for us.

Steopo

I see streamers a bit like a garden hose, if you point it at the one spot for a long time u get a puddle that just keeps getting bigger and bigger. The more water pressure and longer u leave hose on the one spot the bigger the puddle. If u move it around a bit you get more of a sprinkler effect & smaller or no puddles.

The wind speed & direction will determine the sea fetch and size of streamers i.e water volume/pressure in the hose

The wind direction will determine where the hose is pointed & the wind variability will determine whether we end up with a sprinkler effect or not.

Given we’re talking about a possible 3 day event there’s a lot of variables there that can have an significant impact on accumulations in one particular area.

What we do know is that the hose is pointed at East Coast (at moment aiming at Dublin/Louth) & due to be turned on late Sun but properly Mon lunchtime. What we’re not 100% sure on is all the other variables. So I’m keeping an open mind on possible accumulations, two weeks ago North County Dublin got 3/4cm of fluffy accumulating snow in several hours from a relatively small system because the wind pushed it onshore & then seemed to stall so very small variables at the right time can make huge difference.

HIRLAM looking good for the show to kick off in Dublin/Louth at lunchtime Monday

Enjoy!

Slashermcguirk

Dublin 5. Two weeks ago, Sutton, Howth, Raheny, donghmede, baldoyle etc got loads of lying snow it wasn’t gone until 3 days later and that wasn’t even built up as going to be a snow event

HansKroenke wrote: »

Where are you based? I am south dublin city and this is definitely not the situation for us.

Larbre34

Met É are notoriously conservative. And I don't blame them.

Theres no point droning on about snow for days in advance as you just lose people's interest. 48 to 24 hours out you say, 'right, fair bit of snow coming to the east etc, don't travel, stock up, check on the elderly.' They'll be briefing the National Directorate for Emergency Management and that message in turn will be blended with sensible precautions around Covid protocols.

Gaoth Laidir

lucernarian wrote: »

Does Castor Bay in Northern Ireland not do radiosonde soundings any more? Or am I not seeing the relevant data for there out of blindness?

Frustratingly it doesn't seem to appear much on the Meteologix maps, but there was one at 12Z today.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2021&MONTH=02&FROM=0600&TO=0600&STNM=03918

Captain Snow

Streamers Get going early. Hail, Sleet then Snow.




Main Event. Massive upgrades coming. That Low may push south again. HP wanting to build down from Scandinavia again.

lucernarian

What model is that?