Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

King of Spades

John.Icy wrote: »

Those ICON charts looks fairly bang on considering what the steering winds will be doing most of the time.

Louth, Down, Meath, North Dub (maybe Lusk northward), Wexford, Waterford and Cork the favoured spots.

Mid and South Dublin best hope we get a better ENE feed at times to give us a chance. Not looking great right now but some time to go still.

Feeling fairly confident of some decent snow here at 500ft and 20 miles from the coast in central Meath from tomorrow evening. We usually do well in these set ups.

Gaoth Laidir

It really doesn't matter what Met Éireann are saying now. It will make no difference to what we'll get and it's not like we're in for a 2018 or 2010, which would warrant advanced warning alright. A few sleet or snow flurries, more in some places than another, is fairly routine and non-disruptive, especially as everyone is now locked within 5 km. We're not in Hokkaido.

igCorcaigh

Larbre34 wrote: »

Met É are notoriously conservative. And I don't blame them.

Theres no point droning on about snow for days in advance as you just lose people's interest. 48 to 24 hours out you say, 'right, fair bit of snow coming to the east etc, don't travel, stock up, check on the elderly.' They'll be briefing the National Directorate for Emergency Management and that message in turn will be blended with sensible precautions around Covid protocols.

Can you remember the red warning when there was all the government figures lined up and all business closed in 2018 for Storm Emma!

Different times!

Gonzo

King of Spades wrote: »

Feeling fairly confident of some decent snow here at 500ft and 20 miles from the coast in central Meath from tomorrow evening. We usually do well in these set ups.

the northern half of Meath should do ok, it's all looking a bit hit and miss for the southern half of Meath. At the moment i'm going for conservative estimates of between 2 and 5cm for south Meath and up to 10cm for north Meath. Keeping my estimates low for a reason, hopefully we will be pleasantly surprised. I'd be very happy with 10cm.

igCorcaigh

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It really doesn't matter what Met Éireann are saying now. It will make no difference to what we'll get and it's not like we're in for a 2018 or 2010, which would warrant advanced warning alright. A few sleet or snow flurries, more in some places than another, is fairly routine and non-disruptive, especially as everyone is now locked within 5 km. We're not in Hokkaido.

Quoted for truth. Let's see how it plays out my friend GL!

Larbre34

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Can you remember the red warning when there was all the government figures lined up and all business closed in 2018 for Storm Emma!

Different times!

Very different forecast.

I do remember driving over to work on the first morning on it and it taking hours, only to arrive and promptly get sent home on a red warning!

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It really doesn't matter what Met Éireann are saying now. It will make no difference to what we'll get and it's not like we're in for a 2018 or 2010, which would warrant advanced warning alright. A few sleet or snow flurries, more in some places than another, is fairly routine and non-disruptive, especially as everyone is now locked within 5 km. We're not in Hokkaido.

True but Ireland and even a little snow is chaotic. I suppose a lot of people being at home and not at workplace/school is a plus.

Nqp15hhu

lucernarian wrote: »

Does Castor Bay in Northern Ireland not do radiosonde soundings any more? Or am I not seeing the relevant data for there out of blindness?

The cold air is not here yet.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/sondage_display.php?id=3918&map=2&date=1612566000&map2=2

Look at midnight.

lucernarian

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It really doesn't matter what Met Éireann are saying now. It will make no difference to what we'll get and it's not like we're in for a 2018 or 2010, which would warrant advanced warning alright. A few sleet or snow flurries, more in some places than another, is fairly routine and non-disruptive, especially as everyone is now locked within 5 km. We're not in Hokkaido.

Would there be an exception to this in the case of Louth/Meath? The forecasts do seem consistent with at least an orange alert, similar to what the UKMO has issued for the coast of East Anglia. But in saying that, they've settled on yellow for most of the British coast so arguably there's no reason for more of a warning level for here than there.

derekon

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Snow is hardly a ‘rarity’ in Dublin, certainly not common but rarity is a stretch. Have woken up to snow 4 times in Dublin this winter alone, one of which was 6cm of snow just two weeks ago and I am not in one of the traditional snowier parts of Dublin.

Exactly Slasher!! Snow is a rarity in Rome, Dublin not so much!!! The city is actually one of the best places in Ireland for snow, particularly when we get an easterly in winter, for obvious reasons! You can never bet against snow any winter in Dublin. It is always a realistic possibility. And gives one a wee bit of hope every winter!

D

snowstorm445

Looking very cold here in Brussels this week. Temperatures not getting above -3C by day on Tuesday and Wednesday and falling down to -9 or -10 at night. Some snow tonight into tomorrow but mainly dry after that. A bit nippy to say the least!

Keeping an eye on things in Ireland too, my brother is in Drogheda at the moment so expecting him to do quite well from the snow at least. Not sure about the rest of the family down in Cork. Fingers crossed everyone gets a bit!

lucernarian

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The cold air is not here yet.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/sondage_display.php?id=3918&map=2&date=1612566000&map2=2

Look at midnight.

I think you've completely misinterpreted what I said. Castor Bay radiosonde data isn't displayed in the charts GL used, as GL and I both pointed out

Slashermcguirk

Hokkaido is a remarkable location for snow. Their sea effect snow is unrivalled. They get literally metres of snow every winter. It has to be one of the snowiest places on Earth in terms of sheer quantities. You kind of don’t expect it in Japan but then you see how long Japan is and how close northern Japan is to the likes of Russia and north east China which in itself gets serious cold winter temps

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It really doesn't matter what Met Éireann are saying now. It will make no difference to what we'll get and it's not like we're in for a 2018 or 2010, which would warrant advanced warning alright. A few sleet or snow flurries, more in some places than another, is fairly routine and non-disruptive, especially as everyone is now locked within 5 km. We're not in Hokkaido.

Gonzo

GFS going for a widespread snow event on Thursday.



However I would issue much caution with this. The most likely scenario right now is snow at first and then turning to rain as it clears with milder air moving swiftly across the country. This event has been trending colder and colder with each run as this frontal system struggles to bring in the milder air. There is a small chance this could stall over the country, not letting in any mild air but I think the mild will win eventually. It appears that the mild may not get into the UK at all from this and another cold reload is possible for them. Will be interesting model watching over the next 4 days to see what progress this frontal system makes, there is even a small chance the frontal system may not even reach us and we stay in the cold spell instead.

snowstorm445

derekon wrote: »

Exactly Slasher!! Snow is a rarity in Rome, Dublin not so much!!! The city is actually one of the best places in Ireland for snow, particularly when we get an easterly in winter, for obvious reasons! You can never bet against snow any winter in Dublin. It is always a realistic possibility. And gives one a wee bit of hope every winter!

D

In fairness if you've moved to Dublin in the last few years it has become increasingly uncommon. Plenty of winters over the past decade have had no easterly incursions at all, just the odd stray shower from a northwesterly. I was living in Dublin from 2014 until 2020 and I think Feb 2018 was the only time snow managed to stick around for longer than an hour or two.

But you're definitely right, when easterlies happen Dublin really is in the sweet spot!

igCorcaigh

Yeah, i see Cork getting big snow and then quickly rain. Slushy mess.:(

But what do I know?

CirrusBusiness

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It really doesn't matter what Met Éireann are saying now. It will make no difference to what we'll get and it's not like we're in for a 2018 or 2010, which would warrant advanced warning alright. A few sleet or snow flurries, more in some places than another, is fairly routine and non-disruptive, especially as everyone is now locked within 5 km. We're not in Hokkaido.

That's our next cold spell the following week :-D ;-)

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

True but Ireland and even a little snow is chaotic. I suppose a lot of people being at home and not at workplace/school is a plus.

I think some places at lower levels could see between 5 and 10 cm by Wednesday. 2010 and 2018 has resulted in people having unrealistic expectations- before those events we would all be happy at the prospect of a modest covering.

Slashermcguirk

Again it comes down to where in Dublin, weather in both winter and summer can be bizarrely localised. During the warm May last year places like Dublin airport recording 23 degrees and Phoenix park 27 degrees. Equally in winter you could speak to someone in south or west Dublin getting several cm of snow on any given winter and where I am nothing. For such a small county we have a really localised climate, two weeks ago showed that with lots of snow in some parts and virtually nothing 10km away

snowstorm445 wrote: »

In fairness if you've moved to Dublin in the last few years it has become increasingly uncommon. Plenty of winters over the past decade have had no easterly incursions at all, just the odd stray shower from a northwesterly. I was living in Dublin from 2014 until 2020 and I think Feb 2018 was the only time snow managed to stick around for longer than an hour or two.

But you're definitely right, when easterlies happen Dublin really is in the sweet spot!

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

I think some places at lower levels could see between 5 and 10 cm by Wednesday. 2010 and 2018 has resulted in people having unrealistic expectations- before those events we would all be happy at the prospect of a modest covering.

We certainly would especially down in Cork.

sicknotexi

Calibos wrote: »

Its constantly said that the models under estimate streamers.

I assume this means that they are not programmed to take into account every single little variable that can affect their formation and then their intensity.

However, one has to assume that no matter how many variables and conditions are met, THE most important one with the strongest effect is Sea Fetch. So it doesn't matter if every other condition is met, if you don't have the Sea Fetch, none of it really matters.

This is why knowing what direction the wind is blowing at the required level (700-850mb) is so important in order to work out if you have any chance at all of anything decent.

Now even if the precipitation models are not programmed to take into account all the variables (Which is why we can't 100% trust them) surely the one variable guaranteed to be programmed into them right is the Wind direction at the relevant height.

ERGO, if the precipitation models are showing high intensity into Meath and Louth from due East, surely we can at least trust that it got the wind direction at 700-850mb right. What we can't trust is the intensity. Might be overblown, might be under-cooked, the most intense region of precipitation might be a bit further south etc, but broadly speaking the model will have got the general area right.

If the only thing you can trust about the precipitation model is the track/direction of the Streamers than surely experience tells us that most of Dublin and Wicklow will be in the Angelsey/Wales shadow and end up getting SFA.

The overall point I am making is that when some of us see the latest output and have a little moan that it doesn't look like we'll get much if anything, we are told to relax and that the Precipitation models can't be trusted anyway. My point is that surely at the very least the orientation/direction of the Streamers on the Precipitation models can be trusted, in which case we can make educated guesses based on experience which of the various Irish Sea Precipitation Shadows are going to affect us.

Great post. I'm coming to the idea that I will probably not do well here in South Kildare as the winds will not be favourable. Hopefully the wind direction changes from different directions and everyone can get some of the action over the 3/4 days.

Reckless Abandonment

I'd say M.E are as unsure where these streamers might go as we are.
But one thing is for sure the them rain showers are well able to find south dublin ...

ninebeanrows

2 metre wet bulb temperatures will be down to +1 degree by midday tomorrow and will go sub-zero from around 6pm, from then on we will have frozen precipitation and we can look to the Irish Sea to do its job. There will continue to be 10-30 degree shifts in wind-direction and 700/ 850hpa steering flow in the coming output so any current precipitation projections are liable to change significantly.

ZX7R

Where I'm living in Poland the met institute just issued a red weather warning for heavy snow 60 to 80 cm expected tomorrow .

ninebeanrows

ZX7R wrote: »

Where I'm living in Poland the met institute just issued a red weather warning for heavy snow 60 to 80 cm expected tomorrow .

No messing around there:D

TheMilkyPirate

If Thursday is going to be snow to rain which it more than likely will, it would be nice for the snow part of it to be in the daylight hours and then just rain it off as the day comes to a close. People would get a proper snow day and then what will be will be overnight

munsterlegend

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

If Thursday is going to be snow to rain which it more than likely will, it would be nice for the snow part of it to be in the daylight hours and then just rain it off as the day comes to a close. People would get a proper snow day and then what will be will be overnight

The way things are going you’d have to seriously question the inroads of that front into Ireland.

Nqp15hhu

lucernarian wrote: »

I think you've completely misinterpreted what I said. Castor Bay radiosonde data isn't displayed in the charts GL used, as GL and I both pointed out

Not sure what you’re winking at. I’m the one with a Meteorology degree.

gerrybhoy

Nice wee drop in temps since this morning,right chill out there

nacho libre

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

If Thursday is going to be snow to rain which it more than likely will, it would be nice for the snow part of it to be in the daylight hours and then just rain it off as the day comes to a close. People would get a proper snow day and then what will be will be overnight

The way the models have been trending there maybe no frontal event for most of the country. If we were very lucky the front would stall and push back south,but as you say it will more than likely will be a snow to rain event. If it's going to be like last Sunday's quick transition count me out, however with colder air entrenched this is much less likely.