Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

munsterlegend

Calibos wrote: »

If the ECM has taught me anything......its the days of the week in French!!

Bien sûr.

ffarrell7

Of course Dublin is in the firing line with an east/North East wind. Always is with that set up.

Wicklow/Kildare as well.....

Louth/Meath never seem to do as well with an east/north east wind....

Humberto Salazar

Can we fast forward to Thursday, fascinated to see what happens with the front? Not disregarding the streamers entirely but for 80 per cent of us, a dusting of snow or less seems more likely than not. Frontal snow presents a much more enticing prospect.

Calibos

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Of course Dublin is in the firing line with an east/North East wind. Always is with that set up.

Wicklow/Kildare as well.....

Louth/Meath never seem to do as well with an east/north east wind....

..but the models the last few days are showing a due Easterly....putting most of Dublin, all of Wicklow and North Wexford in the Anglesey and Wales Shadows. These areas have to hope its wrong and its more of an ENE flow or if it is an Easterly that conditions are such that the stretch from Cardigan Bay is enough to generate useful streamers. Even then Dublin might still be out of luck due to Anglesey but Wicklow and North Wexford would fare better.

PokeHerKing

The entire East coast is in the firing line of an easterly, the clue us in the name.

nacho libre

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Can we fast forward to Thursday, fascinated to see what happens with the front? Not disregarding the streamers entirely but for 80 per cent of us, a dusting of snow or less seems more likely than not. Frontal snow presents a much more enticing prospect.

I'm not sure we'll even seen a frontal event at this stage. The dream scenario would be some progress over the country, then a stall ,which leads to a 16 hour heavy snowfall, before it all heads back south again. If Carlsberg did Irish weather that is what would happen!

davidsr20

redsteveireland wrote: »

Nice dry day in Galway before the cold arrives, got the whole garden tidied up finally. Looking forward to watching this develop over the few days.

Are we going to get anything this far west?

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

I'm not sure we'll even seen a frontal event at this stage. The dream scenario would be some progress over the country, then a stall ,which leads to a 16 hour heavy snowfall, before it all heads back south again. If Carlsberg did Irish weather that is what would happen!

Hey that’s my joke!

Calibos

PokeHerKing wrote: »

The entire East coast is in the firing line of an easterly, the clue us in the name.

...and it’ll be shooting blanks if you are due west of the Isle of Man or Wales in a pure Easterly airflow as there isnt enough sea Fetch for major convection due west of those locations. Why do you think many if us are fretting about the exact wind direction being forecast and IOM and Wales Shadows?

That said, its absolutely possible the models are wrong, even a few degrees can make all the difference and we end up with en ENE and Dublin/Bray/Wicklow goes from having the shortest see fetch possible in an Easterly because of Anglesey, to having the longest sea fetch in the whole Irish sea all the way to Morecambe Bay/Blackpool in a ENE’rly

Billcarson

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Can we fast forward to Thursday, fascinated to see what happens with the front? Not disregarding the streamers entirely but for 80 per cent of us, a dusting of snow or less seems more likely than not. Frontal snow presents a much more enticing prospect.

Frontal snow is only any use in this situation if it stalls. I'd rather it stayed away if it doesn't. Snow to rain is just p***k teasing stuff imo.

Chalkitdown147

Calibos wrote: »

..but the models the last few days are showing a due Easterly....putting most of Dublin, all of Wicklow and North Wexford in the Anglesey and Wales Shadows. These areas have to hope its wrong and its more of an ENE flow or if it is an Easterly that conditions are such that the stretch from Cardigan Bay is enough to generate useful streamers. Even then Dublin might still be out of luck due to Anglesey but Wicklow and North Wexford would fare better.

Was just looking at photos from 28th Feb 2018, before storm Emma and where I am (Clonee) we got a good dump of snow from a straight easterly. I do know Lucan also got some but not as much. Then Emma came in and lashed everywhere but I'd say you could draw a line across Dublin splitting it in half, top part snow, bottom part struggling in a straight easterly

blackvalley

Hi.
For all those that understand such things what is your opinion of Ventusky as a forecasting app.
Use it myself and its hit and miss . Graphics are nice though.:)

PokeHerKing

Calibos wrote: »

...and it’ll be shooting blanks if you are due west of the Isle of Man or Wales in a pure Easterly airflow as there isnt enough sea Fetch for major convection due west of those locations. Why do you think many if us are fretting about the exact wind direction being forecast and IOM and Wales Shadows?

E/NE/SE my point being the entire East coast has a ticket in an easterly.

TTLF

Chalkitdown147 wrote: »

Was just looking at photos from 28th Feb 2018, before storm Emma and where I am (Clonee) we got a good dump of snow from a straight easterly. I do know Lucan also got some but not as much. Then Emma came in and lashed everywhere but I'd say you could draw a line across Dublin splitting it in half, top part snow, bottom part struggling in a straight easterly

It's because most places in south Dublin will struggle from the Anglesey shadow in Wales. Turn that wind ENE or NE Dublin will be good, ENE can be an issue for more southern parts of S Dublin, like where SuperCell lives for example, or Bray, but can be fine for places probably north of Dundrum if the direction is fine, considering if the shower is beefy enough it'll cover a larger area.

But yeah, the timeline I'm seeing at the moment is that winds go from a NE to an ENE from Monday, turn more E Tuesday as the low passes below Ireland before turning more ENE/possibly NE again, and then when the low arrives Wednesday they turn SE, The South of Dublin will do good in a SE fetch, but the North of Dublin will be under the Wales shadow I believe.

But this is all up for debate ofc, it can change and we can't anticipate where showers will hit on the coasts like today, didn't expect as much rain showers I got... It depends on the intensity the Irish Sea fires up to I guess.

EDIT: Another shower here now! I thought we were done for the night here honestly... Love how Dublin is currently in the best position possible for streamers and it's all cold rain... just our luck I guess

redsteveireland

davidsr20 wrote: »

Are we going to get anything this far west?

As it stands, we are relying on good strong streamers from the Irish sea for the early part of the week, its anyone's guess how likely that is. Then later in the week we may have a chance from the frontal event that may or may not happen, that's how vague it is right now. It will be cold, and nice weather for getting out doors at the very least, besides the wind chill that is.
IMO.

Dazler97

I just hope Carrick on Shannon get some snow on Thursday

Davaeo09

Deleted User wrote: »

No snow here this eve. Not a single flake. What's going on? Absolute joke of a ramped up thread. Some people need to take a long hard look at themselves.

(Just wanted to be the first to get that in)

first and last I hope

RugbyLad11

TTLF wrote: »

It's because most places in south Dublin will struggle from the Anglesey shadow in Wales. Turn that wind ENE or NE Dublin will be good, ENE can be an issue for more southern parts of S Dublin, like where SuperCell lives for example, or Bray, but can be fine for places probably north of Dundrum if the direction is fine, considering if the shower is beefy enough it'll cover a larger area.

But yeah, the timeline I'm seeing at the moment is that winds go from a NE to an ENE from Monday, turn more E Tuesday as the low passes below Ireland before turning more ENE/possibly NE again, and then when the low arrives Wednesday they turn SE, The South of Dublin will do good in a SE fetch, but the North of Dublin will be under the Wales shadow I believe.

But this is all up for debate ofc, it can change and we can't anticipate where showers will hit on the coasts like today, didn't expect as much rain showers I got... It depends on the intensity the Irish Sea fires up to I guess.

EDIT: Another shower here now! I thought we were done for the night here honestly... Love how Dublin is currently in the best position possible for streamers and it's all cold rain... just our luck I guess

It's been raining pretty much the whole day in West Dublin. But I bet the precipitation will vanish once the cold air sets in:rolleyes:

Sammy2012

Live on the wexford/wickloe border and we had a wet morning and a wet afternoon/evening. Was lovely in the early afternoon, the sun was even out for a while.

konman

nacho libre wrote: »

I'm not sure we'll even seen a frontal event at this stage. The dream scenario would be some progress over the country, then a stall ,which leads to a 16 hour heavy snowfall, before it all heads back south again. If Carlsberg did Irish weather that is what would happen!

You could gaurantee it would stall if it was to be all rain.

lucernarian

Calibos wrote: »

...and it’ll be shooting blanks if you are due west of the Isle of Man or Wales in a pure Easterly airflow as there isnt enough sea Fetch for major convection due west of those locations. Why do you think many if us are fretting about the exact wind direction being forecast and IOM and Wales Shadows?

I'm skeptical this time about the IoM making a big difference in the scheme of things, after all you can see gaps in shower trains in e.g. the North sea where there are no islands of note between Denmark/Norway and Britain - and wind directions are going to fluctuate over next week.

I wonder if what was seen in 2010 (the IoM shadow) could be better explained by coastal convergence forcing the development of showers either side of the island, upstream of the Irish coast. Maybe someone here knows more on this subject

Danno

Mimon wrote: »

Polish friend was saying that legally you have to shovel the footpath in front of your house. What do old people or people unable to do it manage? Pay the local kids?

Believe it or not, there was a precedent set here years ago when someone slipped on semi-cleared ice/snow and sued.

There was a mis-conception going around that anyone who cleared ice/snow outside their homes on public paths/roads were liable if somebody was injured from sub-standard work.

I think it was either 2009 or 2010 during the brutal winter that the then minister had to clarify the situation telling the Irish public that they could clear snow/ice with indemnity. Perhaps there was some legislation passed, I'm not sure.

Soon after, local county councils deposited salt piles for locals to work out of and to spread voluntarily in their areas. I know in my local town we all got together clearing paths for the elderly. TV3 even interviewed us on the news during Feb 2018!

Snowbiee21

Sunday-Wednesday definitely a downgrade IMO. We are relying on the odd streamer to deliver the goods ( which isn’t necessarily guaranteed depending on wind direction)

kittyn

Chalkitdown147 wrote: »

Was just looking at photos from 28th Feb 2018, before storm Emma and where I am (Clonee) we got a good dump of snow from a straight easterly. I do know Lucan also got some but not as much. Then Emma came in and lashed everywhere but I'd say you could draw a line across Dublin splitting it in half, top part snow, bottom part struggling in a straight easterly

I beg to differ ...... Back in 2018 the snow plough got stuck up where I am and a tractor had to pull it out

John.Icy

lucernarian wrote: »

I'm skeptical this time about the IoM making a big difference in the scheme of things, after all you can see gaps in shower trains in e.g. the North sea where there are no islands of note between Denmark/Norway and Britain - and wind directions are going to fluctuate over next week.

I wonder if what was seen in 2010 (the IoM shadow) could be better explained by coastal convergence forcing the development of showers either side of the island, upstream of the Irish coast. Maybe someone here knows more on this subject

IOM mostly irrelevant for the upcoming spell. Not because it won't exert a shadow, but in an E or ENE it would end up over Down and I don't know how many posters we have up there

IOM more of an issue in a NE wind because then you're talking about rather populated areas at risk like Dublin, Kildare etc.. Also on here someone before has traced the shadow in a NE wind not to the IOM but further back and the Pennines, so there probably is some debate on whether the full blame is on the IOM at times.

EDIT: I'm not 100% it was the Pennines, but that's the only thing that is jumping into my mind.

PokeHerKing

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Sunday-Wednesday definitely a downgrade IMO. We are relying on the odd streamer to deliver the goods ( which isn’t necessarily guaranteed depending on wind direction)

We were always relying on streamers and they are guaranteed. Wind direction decides were they go.

sryanbruen

Deleted User wrote: »

No snow here this eve. Not a single flake. What's going on? Absolute joke of a ramped up thread. Some people need to take a long hard look at themselves.

(Just wanted to be the first to get that in)

TimeOutLadsPlease!

Mimon

highdef wrote: »

Today is Saturday Feb 6th. Did you even read the title of this thread?

Woosh

Gaoth Laidir

Base reflectivity (simulated radar) and 850-hPa steering winds from 12Z tomorrow to early Thursday. Very light precipitation making some inroads towards the midlands at times as the steering flow varies from ENE Monday/Tuesday to more easterly on Wednesday.

daydorunrun

Drove from Galway to Wexford Today. The country is totally sodden. Flood planes flooded, fields waterlogged, bogs overflowing- as these easterlies continue across the country from the coast they will continue accumulate moisture extending streamers further inland- I christen it Bog Effect Snow ™