Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

snowstorm445

Snow has already arrived here in Belgium, wasn't due until sometime tomorrow morning Although with the COVID curfew starting in half an hour going out and walking around in it mightn't be the smartest idea.

The cold is heading Ireland's way!

Mimon

munsterlegend wrote: »

I am well aware of that but I don’t think any chart shows any great streamer activity at the moment. Of course charts get it wrong and can change.

Fair enough. I'm probably being optimistic in that the charts are underplaying the potential of the streamers like they have in the past.

Oneiric 3

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Wind chill feel from an easterly is far more easy to deal with than the usual chill from the west.

Can't wait for this winter to be over. While it may have been on the chilly side a lot of the time, I don't recall any notable weather event during it. Not even a lousy named lousy storm. I intend spending the spring and summer doing up the back garden and am dying to get at it at this stage.

It’s been pretty good here in the east. 2 snow days for me. Some frost. An ice day. Or maybe two. Some dry cold weather ahead, maybe some snow in the next week. Then ME predict a long drying spell.

lucernarian

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

One example of the best soundings from just off the Drogheda coast on Tuesday morning. Very shallow convection, capped by a strong subsidence inversion from around 700 hPa, with barely any CAPE for surface parcels cold enough for snow. Light sleet or snow/snow grains would likely be the most common form of precipition with this.

Inversion layer seems to be closer to 600 hPa at least. But more concerning to me is the lack of saturation at any level. It's a far drier forecast than I expected for that place at that time but still, the resolution for this model just isn't adequate enough to reflect likely conditions by this time. We need to be closer to the event when Euro4 and HIRLAM can give us some more realistic expectations

Daz_

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Snow has already arrived here in Belgium, wasn't due until sometime tomorrow morning Although with the COVID curfew starting in half an hour going out and walking around in it mightn't be the smartest idea.

The cold is heading Ireland's way!

Nah , it isn’t really ...

ninebeanrows

Sleet already falling in the London area, they in for a nice treat next few days. I have not dared to take a peek over on NW.

Reckless Abandonment

So -10 850z aren't enough to kick the Irish sea into life.??

Dazler97

I know it's been raining all day in Dublin(for a change) and all I can say is if that was snow there would probably be 10cm on the ground by now

Snowbiee21

Hate to be the one to say it, but looks game over really:o.
Signals yesterday showed more chances for snow showers to develop into the greater Dublin area, but latest guidance suggests showers this week which will be light will miss dublin and head north of us! Our best chance looks like thursday, but even that far out is still in an unreliable timeframe..:rolleyes:

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

. Then ME predict a long drying spell.

These EC46 updates sure do change alot, and now we see a change in the Met Eireann monthly to go with it, if its right we can forget about a high being positioned in a favourable position to bring snowy cold our way. A poor update if your after snow, but good if you want saturated land to dry out, and want dry weather in general. It's funny that right at the end the risk of wintry precipitation increases.


Week 2 (Monday 15 February to Sunday 21 February)



Low pressure over the Atlantic and high pressure over Europe for this week will bring a change compared to the previous week. Temperatures will recover to more normal levels for the time of year as the airmasses affecting Ireland become somewhat milder. Precipitation amounts will increase to slightly above average for most of the country as more mobile weather systems affect Ireland. The main potential hazards for this week are wind and rainfall.





Week 3 (Monday 22 February to Sunday 28 February)



High pressure to the north looks set to extend over Ireland for this period. This will lead to generally settled conditions with drier than average conditions and temperatures around normal for the time of year. However, given the calm conditions, there is the risk of some frost at night and mist and fog also.





Week 4 (Monday 01 March to Sunday 07 March)



High pressure looks likely to decline to the northwest over this period, with low pressure over southwestern Europe. This will bring colder temperatures across Ireland as the airflow becomes mainly northeasterly. However, it will also bring generally drier than normal conditions across most of the country, though showers may feed into eastern and northeastern areas at times. With cold temperatures, there is potential for some wintry flurries in the east and northeast, with the risk of frosty nights.

Reckless Abandonment

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

So -10 850z aren't enough to kick the Irish sea into life.??

Not when it's too windy
The air passes over the potential fetch too quickly
We'll see

Dazler97

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

So -10 850z aren't enough to kick the Irish sea into life.??

Well according to this website, the Dublin sea temperature is 8.3c

Brendan offaly

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Hate to be the one to say it, but looks game over really:o.
Signals yesterday showed more chances for snow showers to develop into the greater Dublin area, but latest guidance suggests showers this week which will be light will miss dublin and head north of us! Our best chance looks like thursday, but even that far out is still in an unreliable timeframe..:rolleyes:

Wait and see and be optimistic. There’s precipitation falling right now blowing in from Dublin through Kildare Meath and Offaly. A bit of a waste because it’s rain but if continues when temps drop tomorrow there will be lying snow.

Snowbiee21

Brendan offaly wrote: »

Wait and see and be optimistic. There’s precipitation falling right now blowing in from Dublin through Kildare Meath and Offaly. A bit of a waste because it’s rain but if continues when temps drop tomorrow there will be lying snow.

GL has explained why rain streamers have developed, different set up to this week unfortunately

ninebeanrows

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Sleet already falling in the London area, they in for a nice treat next few days. I have not dared to take a peek over on NW.

Yeh. I noticed that at the end of the rugby. It was mostly rain but I could see some flakes. And it will get colder there.

Anyway there’s a general feeling of Gluckschmerz in this thread.

lucernarian

AuntySnow wrote: »

Not when it's too windy
The air passes over the potential fetch too quickly
We'll see

Anything to be said for potential embedded troughs a la 2005? ^^

Ground pressure is quite a bit lower than some comparable events, upper air temps are good to go and faster ground level wind speeds should reduce modification too.

Still not ruling in or out anything until some higher res mesoscale models come into play as we get closer.

Brendan offaly

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

GL has explained why rain streamers have developed, different set up to this week unfortunately

Streamers are so unpredictable. They can surprise you or upset you. I sat for a whole day before looking at Meath and Laois getting plastered and us in tullamore getting sunshine (IOM shadow). The next day it was all Offaly and Laois. Let’s wait and see.

Rebelbrowser

Soundings for 3 days time are hardly a basis for declaring game over. I remain confident that at least 50% of the population will have lying snow next week.

Reckless Abandonment

Dazler97 wrote: »

Well according to this website, the Dublin sea temperature is 8.3c

Do we not only need about 13 degrees of a difference?

Gaoth Laidir

Calibos wrote: »

So as usual for us its ‘close but no cigar’ Rug pulled out from under us by the charts 24-48 hour out?? All the arguments about wind directions and shadows was moot because despite -10 uppers there is some esoteric variable that didnt fall into place meaning feck all streamers for anyone regardless of sea fetch.

Is that whatit boils down to GL?

Not at all. There will be flurries, frequent in a few places, just probably not of the intensity we'd prefer. I'd be surprised to see much lying snow come Monday as the ground is so wet and warm, but we have three days of a chance to see some flurries so it's not a write-off by any means.

Speak Now

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Do we not only need about 13 degrees of a difference?

It's a bit more complicated than that.

davidsr20

Guys we’ve had so much hype lately followed but huge disappointment. Should we all just give up on this country for snow at this stage. I was so hyped the last few days. And then like always it starts to fall to pieces or am i wrong

YanSno

Convection will still occur Irish sea temp is around 9-10c, 850mbar at around -8 to -10. Temp difference around 20c which is enough instability for lake effect. As I said before North Dublin to Dundalk will see snow with accumulations.

Gaoth Laidir

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Do we not only need about 13 degrees of a difference?

They say we need a 13-degree difference in the bottom 1.5 km of the atmosphere. We will have around 18 degrees in the bottom 1.3 km (850 hPa will be at around 1300 m). More than enough.

compsys

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Hate to be the one to say it, but looks game over really:o.
Signals yesterday showed more chances for snow showers to develop into the greater Dublin area, but latest guidance suggests showers this week which will be light will miss dublin and head north of us! Our best chance looks like thursday, but even that far out is still in an unreliable timeframe..:rolleyes:

I'd be hugely surprised if Thursday comes off. I feel if the cold does stick it'll be because the entire low pressure system and the precipitation stays away.

compsys

YanSno wrote: »

Convection will still occur Irish sea temp is around 9-10c, 850mbar at around -8 to -10. Temp difference around 20c which is enough instability for lake effect. As I said before North Dublin to Dundalk will see snow with accumulations.

More like 7 to 8º.

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperature-de-la-mer.php?region=uk

otherfrog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Not at all. There will be flurries, frequent in a few places, just probably not of the intensity we'd prefer. I'd be surprised to see much lying snow come Monday as the ground is so wet and warm, but we have three days of a chance to see some flurries so it's not a write-off by any means.

Thanks for this, best summation of what to expect

Larbre34

davidsr20 wrote: »

Guys we’ve had so much hype lately followed but huge disappointment. Should we all just give up on this country for snow at this stage. I was so hyped the last few days. And then like always it starts to fall to pieces or am i wrong

You're wrong.

This was never going to be a nationwide event. Myself and others keep saying, people with images of 2010 or 18 in their mind should forget it. What will happen is decent accumulations in the eastern third of the island, and to an extent proximate to the north and south coasts.

The showers may come in spells, accumulations could vary greatly within a short distance, with only upland areas building up constantly until Thursday. On Thursday itself, frontal snow is still a possibility for a lot of the Country, but it may not work out that way and in the end maybe north Leinster and Ulster will see temporary heavy falls before a rapid rise in temperature and a thaw over low land.

But, stay tuned, a few perturbations one way or the other each day could lead to very different outcomes one way or the other.

Brendan offaly

davidsr20 wrote: »

Guys we’ve had so much hype lately followed but huge disappointment. Should we all just give up on this country for snow at this stage. I was so hyped the last few days. And then like always it starts to fall to pieces or am i wrong

The problem is this Forum. I am the last week looking at posts on here and if I’m honest it’s a bit depressing. We are all self isolating in my house for another week so all I have been doing is logging in here every 20 mins driving myself mad.
Addictive or what. ??
You can’t beat the days of getting your weather at 1pm ,6pm and 9pm or the farming forecast on a Sunday.
Less stress and much more reliability than all the (experts) here. The rainfall radar is also a brilliant tool available to everyone.
Let’s just get outside and enjoy whatever happens and if doesn’t snow this week bring on that warmer late feb sunshine.

HansKroenke

davidsr20 wrote: »

Guys we’ve had so much hype lately followed but huge disappointment. Should we all just give up on this country for snow at this stage. I was so hyped the last few days. And then like always it starts to fall to pieces or am i wrong

It's like we need an extreme event like the BFTE to get significant snow that sticks for a few days. The climate is just too mild. The downgrades from ME have been significant the last day or so unfortunately.