Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

YanSno

compsys wrote: »

More like 7 to 8º.

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperature-de-la-mer.php?region=uk

M2 Buoy is at 8.9c currently

TTLF

YanSno wrote: »

Convection will still occur Irish sea temp is around 9-10c, 850mbar at around -8 to -10. Temp difference around 20c which is enough instability for lake effect. As I said before North Dublin to Dundalk will see snow with accumulations.

unfortunate for the south dubs like myself this winter but I wouldn't rule anything out tbh, and Thursday is looking finnneee

Gaoth Laidir

lucernarian wrote: »

Inversion layer seems to be closer to 600 hPa at least. But more concerning to me is the lack of saturation at any level. It's a far drier forecast than I expected for that place at that time but still, the resolution for this model just isn't adequate enough to reflect likely conditions by this time. We need to be closer to the event when Euro4 and HIRLAM can give us some more realistic expectations

The inversion starts just below 700 hPa.

The model should still be able to give a fair approximation of moisture levels. Today's actual 12Z thete-e analysis is fairly consistent with what was forecast 3 days ago, meaning it's got the combination of temperature and moisture more or less correct.

SouthWesterly

3.5c and clear skies in North kerry.

JanuarySnowstor

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/gruns/2021020618/icon-1-114.png?06-18
18z icon colder again for Thursday morning
Widespread snow across the South!!

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/gruns/2021020618/icon-1-114.png?06-18
18z icon colder again for Thursday morning
Widespread snow across the South!!

These Atlantic fronts rarely work out for us down South. I will believe it when I see it snowing outside my window!

Oneiric 3

Short vidja showing 850 temp patten over the last couple of days:

https://imgur.com/a/eVI2QYF

You note that, even though it is the exact same air mass, that the colder temps are making quicker inroads into the greater NE region of Europe due to confluence, than it does as it tries to spill out of the western Scandic region which is currently under an area of atmospheric diffluence.

JanuarySnowstor

[PHP][/PHP]

munsterlegend wrote: »

These Atlantic fronts rarely work out for us down South. I will believe it when I see it snowing outside my window!

Your always full of confidence ml
Please don't ever pilot a plane low on fuel lol

munsterlegend

munsterlegend wrote: »

These Atlantic fronts rarely work out for us down South. I will believe it when I see it snowing outside my window!

Rarely, but when they do it’s proper blizzard.

JanuarySnowstor

Met Eireann up shortly @ rte
I guarantee they will upgrade their thoughts on south coast !!

Little snowy old me

Crikey. I don't know what to think based on many of the posts here this evening. Nothing much for even the east although it appears its all eyes on Thursday. Even here in Donegal we could see some snow for a while.

Looking forward to the hard dry cold weather. Hopefully it will last a few days and lift the water from the land.

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

[PHP][/PHP]
Your always full of confidence ml
Please don't ever pilot a plane low on fuel lol

Come on you know it always look great on paper/charts until about 12/24 hours out!

Humberto Salazar

It's a pity we're going to miss out this time but our westerly position with vast ocean around us make it difficult for icy east winds to work. We get the odd memorable event to dine out on for years, and other ones get quickly forgotten. A minor event nothing more. Another winter that disappointed.

Oneiric 3

ECMWF snow totals in graph form for Dunsany. It is little interesting to see that the operational run regarding these is consistently below the actual ensemble mean.



Just looking at that graph at face value, it seems that no option is off the table, whether that be snow apocalypse or no snow dismay.


Edit, and this one is for Bray, home of Mr. IoM Shadow. Showing less snow generally than Dunsany, but showing potential for snow nonetheless:

JanuarySnowstor

munsterlegend wrote: »

Come on you know it always look great on paper/charts until about 12/24 hours out!

Only joking , yes things never certain
18th gfs now rolling

Irish Steve

nacho libre wrote: »

I'm not sure we'll even seen a frontal event at this stage. The dream scenario would be some progress over the country, then a stall ,which leads to a 16 hour heavy snowfall, before it all heads back south again. If Carlsberg did Irish weather that is what would happen!

We've been in Ireland over 30 years, and this happened in 1978 in a little town called Wellington in Somerset, between Exmoor and the Blackdown Hills, a frontal system came up over the South West peninsula, and then stalled around Salisbury, and then came back down again the following evening. Didn't snow continuously, but when it did, spectacular was the only way to describe it.

We were the last car to move down our road for 4 days, and I parked it in my usual spot next to the house. The following morning, it was buried up to the windows, and the road (14 Ft wide) between us and the houses opposite had a drift on it that was about 1 Mtr deep, though we could see the tarmac outside the window.

The next evening it came back and repeated the process, with the result that the next morning, the car was not visible, apart from a big mound on the roof, and the second entrance to the house, in a corner, was completely buried to above the top of the door, because of the way the snow had drifted into the corner. The drift in the road was now nearly 2 metres, and nothing moved down the road for the next 4 days.

Only happened once in the nearly 20 years we lived there, anything that could move was used to clear the roads, JCB diggers, and things like crawler bulldozers. One road that was cleared by a track based machine, he took a short cut on the way home, following the phone wire pole line, and it was only a few weeks later that he realised that one of the shortcuts went off road, and over a shortcut around a bend, when he looked more closely, the snow in the cutting at that point was over 5 Mtrs deep, admittedly a big drift, but that was the nature of that event.

5 days later, the cold block broke down, and the atlantic won again, and it thawed within 36 hours, which caused other problems with river levels, but it was definitely a snow event to remember.

Nearest I've seen in Ireland was March 3rd 2018, I had to go to Kilbride to feed a friend's cat, he was away at the time, and the normal trip time from Ashbourne is about 10 minutes. On that day, it took close on 2 hours, the only route in that wasn't blocked by 2 mtr drifts was a back road around the back of Hollystown, and the 2 hours was in a 4x4, only tractors and 4 x 4 could get through that day. The roads were open again 2 days later, though some of the bigger drifts took a long time to melt.

As for this week, who knows, it seems that the models are struggling to decide the outcome of what's about to happen, even with the high power computers they have now, forecasting weather is still a very imprecise science, and maybe that's just as well, though there are times when it would be nice to be able to book a holiday and know what the weather was going to do.

Enjoy the roller coaster folks.

Little snowy old me

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

It's a pity we're going to miss out this time but our westerly position with vast ocean around us make it difficult for icy east winds to work. We get the odd memorable event to dine out on for years, and other ones get quickly forgotten. A minor event nothing more. Another winter that disappointed.

Agree. So much potential just beyond our reach. The disappointment is palpable. I was looking through posts from earlier and things were so optimistic and certain and now it's all slipping away on the last leg. Terrible.

bazlers

Good night before i start making a noose...torturous :eek:

munsterlegend

Like clockwork. Were the two days actually up?

BrandonBay86

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

It's a pity we're going to miss out this time but our westerly position with vast ocean around us make it difficult for icy east winds to work. We get the odd memorable event to dine out on for years, and other ones get quickly forgotten. A minor event nothing more. Another winter that disappointed.

Hopefully your spirits get lifted one day

Humberto Salazar

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Agree. So much potential just beyond our reach. The disappointment is palpable. I was looking through posts from earlier and things were so optimistic and certain and now it's all slipping away on the last leg. Terrible.

I tried the optimistic approach for a few posts, but having looked at the charts over the day its clear that away from Eastern UK, we'll only see a little snow anywhere. Thursday is still up for grabs for a while, but the Atlantic is like the bookies at a racecourse. Ultimately it always wins.

BrandonBay86

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Agree. So much potential just beyond our reach. The disappointment is palpable. I was looking through posts from earlier and things were so optimistic and certain and now it's all slipping away on the last leg. Terrible.

Just depressing isn’t it.

giveitholly

Met Eireann still bigging up widespread snow on Thursday

JanuarySnowstor

Excellent forecast from Michelle
She really went for it on Thursday!!

average_runner

Is Monday snow and Tuesday snow now gone for Dublin?

Little snowy old me

munsterlegend wrote: »

Like clockwork. Were the two days actually up?

I missed you all to much.

Zogabomb

Very wintry TV forecast on RTE, they are still predicting snow showers in the East on Monday & Tuesday with more more significant snowfall later in the week!

KathleenF

Brendan offaly wrote: »

The problem is this Forum. I am the last week looking at posts on here and if I’m honest it’s a bit depressing. We are all self isolating in my house for another week so all I have been doing is logging in here every 20 mins driving myself mad.
Addictive or what. ??
You can’t beat the days of getting your weather at 1pm ,6pm and 9pm or the farming forecast on a Sunday.
Less stress and much more reliability than all the (experts) here. The rainfall radar is also a brilliant tool available to everyone.
Let’s just get outside and enjoy whatever happens and if doesn’t snow this week bring on that warmer late feb sunshine.

Nonsense - I got my normal weather forecast from RTÉ etc but I get the inside scoop here esp re storms/snow. Bought a snow shovel on the strength of the expertise here pre 2018 event and I was the toast of the neighbourhood when we eventually got snowed in.

Zogabomb

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Agree. So much potential just beyond our reach. The disappointment is palpable. I was looking through posts from earlier and things were so optimistic and certain and now it's all slipping away on the last leg. Terrible.

You do know it hasn't happened yet yeah?

derekon

Zogabomb wrote: »

Very wintry TV forecast on RTE, they are still predicting snow showers in the East on Monday & Tuesday with more more significant snowfall later in the week!

Great to hear.......but slightly at odds with the doom merchants on here tonight who seem to know more than our national meteorological service!

D