Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

BrandonBay86

Users with multiple accounts talking to themselves here gets tiring.

derekon

BrandonBay86 wrote: »

Users with multiple accounts talking to themselves here gets tiring.

Exactly......the cold weather has not even started!

D

TTLF

Zogabomb wrote: »

Very wintry TV forecast on RTE, they are still predicting snow showers in the East on Monday & Tuesday with more more significant snowfall later in the week!

It's good news from that part, my only issue is the "In the East" which could really be anywhere from Wexford to Louth. Just hope wind directions on the day are more favourable for us anyway in North Leinster (S Dub -> Louth) between those days, otherwise it'll be disappointing to what we could've expected.

I'm very curious why a warning hasn't been issued yet but thinking back, I don't think we got any warning for the East until the night before the BFTE... :pac:

Here's to hoping it works in our favour, and the Low on Thursday works well too...

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

These EC46 updates sure do change alot, and now we see a change in the Met Eireann monthly to go with it, if its right we can forget about a high being positioned in a favourable position to bring snowy cold our way. A poor update if your after snow, but good if you want saturated land to dry out, and want dry weather in general. It's funny that right at the end the risk of wintry precipitation increases.


Week 2 (Monday 15 February to Sunday 21 February)



Low pressure over the Atlantic and high pressure over Europe for this week will bring a change compared to the previous week. Temperatures will recover to more normal levels for the time of year as the airmasses affecting Ireland become somewhat milder. Precipitation amounts will increase to slightly above average for most of the country as more mobile weather systems affect Ireland. The main potential hazards for this week are wind and rainfall.





Week 3 (Monday 22 February to Sunday 28 February)



High pressure to the north looks set to extend over Ireland for this period. This will lead to generally settled conditions with drier than average conditions and temperatures around normal for the time of year. However, given the calm conditions, there is the risk of some frost at night and mist and fog also.





Week 4 (Monday 01 March to Sunday 07 March)



High pressure looks likely to decline to the northwest over this period, with low pressure over southwestern Europe. This will bring colder temperatures across Ireland as the airflow becomes mainly northeasterly. However, it will also bring generally drier than normal conditions across most of the country, though showers may feed into eastern and northeastern areas at times. With cold temperatures, there is potential for some wintry flurries in the east and northeast, with the risk of frosty nights.

Those EC monthly charts are not worth the money. They are notoriously crap and get it wrong very much more often than they do right. I sincerely hope that those monthly forecast from Met Eireann are not based solely on what these charts show, because if they are, then they are not worth the digital paper they are printed on.

Scubadevils

The challenge with this form of habit is that the final component of a habit loop is 'reward'... so that typically means in the case of cold weather/snow:

1. The cue: its winter and its getting colder, check boards.
2. Craving: snow would be amazing, I love the cold weather and remember '82
3. Response: exciting charts! terrible charts... oh, exciting again, keep going!
4. Reward: the snow

The problem is that number 4 doesn't happen that often so the loop rarely gets to complete and repeat - I guess many of us are stuck in very long habit loops where step 4 only kicks in every few years! I of course want step 4 but I do enjoy the hunt too, it's always interesting to witness the sheer complexity involved in getting all of the ingredients in place and the vast knowledge here and on NW etc.

ninebeanrows

Again 18z building the Scandinavian high more at 90hrs

Gonzo

The models currently show very little precipitation for my area here in Meath at the moment for right now, but it's been raining most of the past hour or two. Goes to show the models are already underestimating what is happening here right now.

Brendan offaly

Gonzo wrote: »

The models currently show very little precipitation for my area here in Meath at the moment for right now, but it's been raining most of the past hour or two. Goes to show the models are already underestimating what is happening here right now.

The very same in Tullamore. Light rain on and off but enough to make some surfaces white if it was snow.

Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

The models currently show very little precipitation for my area here in Meath at the moment for right now, but it's been raining most of the past hour or two. Goes to show the models are already underestimating what is happening here right now.

I'd say that your area is one of the more favoured going by current projections.

mickger844posts

Gonzo wrote: »

The models currently show very little precipitation for my area here in Meath at the moment for right now, but it's been raining most of the past hour or two. Goes to show the models are already underestimating what is happening here right now.

And the models are notoriously bad at forecasting streamers. I feel conditions in the Irish Sea will be ripe for showers to develop. Nowcast obviously but i'm quietly confident many will see some action.

Calibos

Most other knowledgable folk here seem to bow to GL’s expertise....but de man from del monte, he say flurries/no snow?!?!

JanuarySnowstor

18z is serious now for Thursday
Widespread heavy snow and red warning stuff!
On to the 00zs

Dazler97

Speak Now wrote: »

It's a bit more complicated than that.

Yes I agree

Gonzo

GFS 18z keeping Leinster in the -9/-10 upper air for a few hours longer on Thursday compared to the 12z. The low is making slower progress east and plenty of snow through the midlands, leinster and west. The way this is going this low is being pushed west with each run.

If the GFS keeps this trend going tomorrow and Monday there is every possibility it will either stall over Ireland or not even make it into the country.

Zogabomb

Thursday is looking like a snow day based on the latest GFS, each run is slowing down the Atlantic. Looks like there could be heavy snow for most of the country based on that run.

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

18z is serious now for Thursday
Widespread heavy snow and red warning stuff!
On to the 00zs

Not like you to be mentioning the ‘red’ word!

Kermit.de.frog

If it's red stay in bed

Jizique

Zogabomb wrote: »

Thursday is looking like a snow day based on the latest GFS, each run is slowing down the Atlantic. Looks like there could be heavy snow for most of the country based on that run.

BBC weather before ten had Thursday as a bit of a nothing happening day before the Atlantic takes over; very different to what they were saying yday.
Need to wait for Gerry at one tomorrow and weather for the week ahead

Kunta Kinte

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I missed you all to much.

Of course you did.:rolleyes:

Gonzo

The front stalls over Leinster, produces 12 to 14 hours of snow and then fizzles out and winds go back into the east. A few flurries still going Friday morning.

If this happened it would be an orange level warning at the very least and possibly red.

Jizique

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If it's red stay in bed

Can’t do that if working from home!
No excuses

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

The front stalls over Leinster, produces 12 to 14 hours of snow and then fizzles out and winds go back into the east. A few flurries still going Friday morning.

If this happened it would be an orange level warning at the very least and possibly red.

Kermit.de.frog

Here comes the beast. This would like going from the frying pan straight in to the fire. Temperatures low throughout all next week and weekend

Dazler97

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If it's red stay in bed

If it's yellow let it mellow

pad199207

pad199207 wrote: »

JanuarySnowstor

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021020618/gfs-0-174.png?18
OMG!!!!!

ffarrell7

Scubadevils wrote: »

The challenge with this form of habit is that the final component of a habit loop is 'reward'... so that typically means in the case of cold weather/snow:

1. The cue: its winter and its getting colder, check boards.
2. Craving: snow would be amazing, I love the cold weather and remember '82
3. Response: exciting charts! terrible charts... oh, exciting again, keep going!
4. Reward: the snow

The problem is that number 4 doesn't happen that often so the loop rarely gets to complete and repeat - I guess many of us are stuck in very long habit loops where step 4 only kicks in every few years! I of course want step 4 but I do enjoy the hunt too, it's always interesting to witness the sheer complexity involved in getting all of the ingredients in place and the vast knowledge here and on NW etc.

2010 and 2018 brought weeks of heavy snow to Dublin....... Much more than 1982.....

thatsmighty

Bbbrrrrrrrr

Gonzo

next Wednesday to Friday are bordering on ice days for much of Leinster combined along with potentially disruptive snow from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning.

Health warnings tho, another couple of runs that stall the Atlantic with each run and we may not even get the frontal event.

giveitholly

Gonzo wrote: »

next Wednesday to Friday are bordering on ice days for much of Leinster combined along with potentially disruptive snow from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning.

Health warnings tho, another couple of runs that stall the Atlantic with each run and we may not even get the frontal event.

Just Leinster or could parts of Munster and connacht get in on the action?