Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

AloKildare

I'm afraid that wind direction will kill our chances of decent snow here in Kildare.
I would prefer a good auld NE wind, but beggers can't be choosers!
I will take whatever comes my way and if it is 2cm or 10cm I will be happy.
Snow is not common here in Ireland, so we should be grateful for what we get!!

Dazler97

Rougies wrote: »

Ah yeah, makes sense. That will give Oneiric 3 an aneurysm.

Why's that

Larbre34

AloKildare wrote: »

I'm afraid that wind direction will kill our chances of decent snow here in Kildare.

At some point in the next week I strongly suspect you'll do well.

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Think that was based on 12z model guidance (probably in both cases), 18z GFS showing more of a cold gradient wind from southeast, rather than being right under high pressure, so would qualify that comment as being subject to revision -- if the model trends continue and don't begin to backtrack to earlier guidance which of course is always the risk.

This no-mild-incursion second and third cold wave outcome is only the 18z GFS don't forget, not saying it's impossible but we await the 00z guidance for a bit more confidence in it at least.

Hope we don't crash the internet tomorrow.

Ah yes we can be 100 per cent certain the next GFS run will bring us back to reality with a bang . I just hope it still shows a good frontal snow event on Thursday before things turn milder

Goldengirl

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Hi everyone. Am in SCD and got my food and grog delivered yesterday. Enough for a week lol.. I’m ready. But that usually means that nothing will happen.

But here we go anyway!

South City Dublin?

Charles Babbage

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Of course Dublin is in the firing line with an east/North East wind. Always is with that set up.

Wicklow/Kildare as well.....

Louth/Meath never seem to do as well with an east/north east wind....

There is a (Isle of) Man sheltering them.

kittyn

Here is a really good synopsis of how things are looking from an old member here, Snowbie ðŸ‘ðŸ»

https://youtu.be/i8w3R9gCUK8

lucernarian

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Great-looking snow sounding from the GFS for Thursday evening. That would produce heavy whiteout conditions if it verified.

It's saturated but also doesn't look to support below zero air temps at the lowest level.

Danno

mickger844posts wrote: »

I said it a few days ago that this deep cold is not so easy to shift. This was when the models were showing a breakdown on Wednesday. Now that is pushed back to Thursday with major question marks if it will happen at all. The morning runs will be very interesting and thats an understatement.

Spot on, take a look at Scotland, they're in the freezer since New Year's Day. The only difference now is the block of cold is shifting a few hundred miles SW to encompass a fair chunk of Ireland.

Why can't the boundary form over Ireland? Dare I say, it seems a fairly plausible outcome considering what has played out over the last six weeks.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

Ah yes we can be 100 per cent certain the next GFS run will bring us back to reality with a bang . I just hope it still shows a good frontal snow event on Thursday before things turn milder

The models have been showing the potential for Thursday for a while now, so I ask, what is so special about the GFS 18z run in this regard? Something curious is going on here about that particular run and the almost hivemind reaction to it. What gives?

Dazler97

Amsterdam is getting pasted snow at the moment - 3c

Danno

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The models have been showing the potential for Thursday for a while now, so I ask, what is so special about the GFS 18z run in this regard? Something curious is going on here about that particular run and the almost hivemind reaction to it. What gives?

It's the optimism! We crave it!

I think alot of the more experienced posters are thinking that the models are coming round to the SSW evolution and are finally reflecting that.

Oneiric 3

Rougies wrote: »

Ah yeah, makes sense. That will give Oneiric 3 an aneurysm.

BrandonBay86

Dazler97 wrote: »

Amsterdam is getting pasted snow at the moment - 3c

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/netherlands/north-holland/amsterdam-dam-square.html

Oneiric 3

Danno wrote: »

It's the optimism! We crave it!

I think alot of the more experienced posters are thinking that the models are coming round to the SSW evolution and are finally reflecting that.

I'm talking about Thursday. What was in the charts that everyone was getting on down with that wasn't shown in runs over the last few days?

Billcarson

nacho libre wrote: »

Ah yes we can be 100 per cent certain the next GFS run will bring us back to reality with a bang . I just hope it still shows a good frontal snow event on Thursday before things turn milder

I'm hanging on to the hope that it wont turn all that milder or more especially imby here in the east perhaps I'm straw cluching but I'm taking each day as it comes.

BrandonBay86

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Met Eireanns now says it will be bone dry and only a small bit cold(2/3) until Thursday and Friday when it will piss rain for 2 days solid. Sounds realistic tbh.

zzzz

John.Icy

kittyn wrote: »

Here is a really good synopsis of how things are looking from an old member here, Snowbie ðŸ‘ðŸ»

https://youtu.be/i8w3R9gCUK8

Holy moly. Throwback to the good ol' IWN forum. Little 13 year old me thought the OG Snowbie was a god. Filled my little brain with so much knowledge. Did not know he was still doing his thing. Thanks Kittyn. An IWN head yourself if I remember.

Maybe I should take my "Iceman" name out of retirement

kittyn

John.Icy wrote: »

Holy moly. Throwback to the good ol' IWN forum. Little 13 year old me thought the OG Snowbie was a god. Filled my little brain with so much knowledge. Did not know he was still doing his thing. Thanks Kittyn. An IWN head yourself if I remember.

Maybe I should take my "Iceman" name out of retirement

Ah no way 🤣🤣🤣 I was yep and miss it badly 🙈 He is still as knowledgeable as ever!

Rebelbrowser

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'm talking about Thursday. What was in the charts that everyone was getting on down with that wasn't shown in runs over the last few days?

Oneric, a few days ago by lunch time on Thursday there were 4c uppers over Leinster as the low raced through Ireland and went on its way unhindered through the UK. That's the difference. It is unrecognisable from that now. The trend suggests that it may just stall, retreat, and drop shed loads of snow along the way. Even over you!

Dazler97

BrandonBay86 wrote: »

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/netherlands/north-holland/amsterdam-dam-square.html

Thank you so much, your a star 🌟🌟

Billcarson

John.Icy wrote: »

Holy moly. Throwback to the good ol' IWN forum. Little 13 year old me thought the OG Snowbie was a god. Filled my little brain with so much knowledge. Did not know he was still doing his thing. Thanks Kittyn. An IWN head yourself if I remember.

Maybe I should take my "Iceman" name out of retirement

Great forum that was. Especially around the cold spell of dec 2010

Rebelbrowser

Billcarson wrote: »

I'm hanging on to the hope that it wont turn all that milder or more especially imby here in the east perhaps I'm straw cluching but I'm taking each day as it comes.

As King February you of all people must believe.....

lucernarian

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The models have been showing the potential for Thursday for a while now, so I ask, what is so special about the GFS 18z run in this regard? Something curious is going on here about that particular run and the almost hivemind reaction to it. What gives?

It's called the pub run for many years now 😅

kittyn

Billcarson wrote: »

Great forum that was. Especially around the cold spell of dec 2010

You are right to keep that hope alive ...... Watch the link I posted 😉

cfresident

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Met Eireanns now says it will be bone dry and only a small bit cold(2/3) until Thursday and Friday when it will piss rain for 2 days solid. Sounds realistic tbh.

Are you going off their app and the images it shows? Their 9 o’clock news update talked about snow showers starting in the east coast Sunday night.

The local forecast in their app seems to regularly contradict their actual forecasts.

Danno

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'm talking about Thursday. What was in the charts that everyone was getting on down with that wasn't shown in runs over the last few days?

I think it's the promise that the warm sector will occlude, stall and then push back west. This wasn't within an asses roar of happening in previous runs which showed an Atlantic assault from Wednesday, right now we're into Thursday with an Atlantic system loosing it's oomph!

Billcarson

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

As King February you of all people must believe.....

Lol,I'd give it 50/50 for now. But yes I always thought feb was the month to watch out for or at least more so then jan.

Spanish Eyes

Goldengirl wrote: »

South City Dublin?

S cointy Dublin. Lol. With a Dort accent too.

Just had a power cut. Thank god the phone was charged for the flashlight, and the power bank was full too. Can’t be too prepared! Candles banned here when my sister destroyed the coffee table with one. Anyway have nothing to light them with.

Oneiric 3

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Oneric, a few days ago by lunch time on Thursday there were 4c uppers over Leinster as the low raced through Ireland and went on its way unhindered through the UK. That's the difference. It is unrecognisable from that now. The trend suggests that it may just stall, retreat, and drop shed loads of snow along the way. Even over you!

No, both the ECM and GFS have been showing this for the last 2 or 3 days at least, with a fair dumping of snow for pretty much all on Thursday