Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Gaoth Laidir

lucernarian wrote: »

It's saturated but also doesn't look to support below zero air temps at the lowest level.

It has a surface temperature of -0.4 °C. The whole sounding is below zero.

John.Icy

Billcarson wrote: »

Great forum that was. Especially around the cold spell of dec 2010

Brilliant. Didn't have the huge numbers boards had but it had pretty much all the big cheeses present and was a great little place.

I wonder how the live chat feature would work on boards

Bloody court cases and restraining orders for the arguing that would ensue I'd say.

bb1234567

BrandonBay86 wrote: »

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/netherlands/north-holland/amsterdam-dam-square.html

Eerily quiet! Oops nearly asked a COVID related question(about their curfew)

Fuzzyduzzy

Going to Dublin for work on Tuesday hopefully it's not like driving through Antarctica

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The models have been showing the potential for Thursday for a while now, so I ask, what is so special about the GFS 18z run in this regard? Something curious is going on here about that particular run and the almost hivemind reaction to it. What gives?

Some runs were not looking all that great in terms of a frontal snow event. This run is. Also it extends the cold spell, with a possible reload after a short milder blip. It also shows the potential for this to be the appetizer before the main course. Even GL described it as a great run, but with the disclaimer that it's the pub run. So i don't think it's a hive mind mentality at all for people be excited about it.

smellyoldboot

cfresident wrote: »

Are you going off their app and the images it shows? Their 9 o’clock news update talked about snow showers starting in the east coast Sunday night.

The local forecast in their app seems to regularly contradict their actual forecasts.

Their text more or less aligns:

Tomorrow, Sunday will be another mostly cloudy day, with just a few bright or sunny spells breaking through. It will be dry again across much of the province, but isolated showers will occur in southern coastal areas. A cold and breezy day, with highest temperatures of 3 to 5 degrees in moderate to fresh easterly winds.

Wednesday: Further wintry showers will occur through Wednesday. Daytime temperatures only reaching 2 or 3 degrees for much of the country. Light to moderate easterly winds will freshen on Atlantic coasts towards the evening as a band of rain arrives from the southwest, gradually extending into much of Munster overnight, preceded by falls of sleet and snow. Another very cold night with lowest temperatures of minus 4 to zero degrees.

Further outlook: Very windy on Thursday with further falls of sleet and snow over much of the country, with more persistent rain developing in the southwest. Temperatures will increase towards the weekend.

Charles Babbage

BrandonBay86 wrote: »

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/netherlands/north-holland/amsterdam-dam-square.html

Dam snow!



Will it be cold enough for the Elfstedentocht?

Nqp15hhu

The cold air is taking quite a while to filter in... should’ve been here by now.

sicknotexi

Dazler97 wrote: »

Amsterdam is getting pasted snow at the moment - 3c

Amsterdam always gets pasted. Amirite?

sicknotexi

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The cold air is taking quite a while to filter in... should’ve been here by now.

I was just gonna post that there was a noticable drop in temps here. It's creeping in.

Nqp15hhu

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Met Eireanns now says it will be bone dry and only a small bit cold(2/3) until Thursday and Friday when it will piss rain for 2 days solid. Sounds realistic tbh.

2c is quite cold for a maximum temperature. Should mean it’s around 1c for most of the day.

Nqp15hhu

sicknotexi wrote: »

I was just gonna post that there was a noticable drop in temps here. It's creeping in.

It’s not. I’m still waiting on temps dropping.

Holy Duck

Nqp15hhu wrote:

The cold air is taking quite a while to filter in... should’ve been here by now.

Taking a while to clear customs

Nqp15hhu

Danno wrote: »

Spot on, take a look at Scotland, they're in the freezer since New Year's Day. The only difference now is the block of cold is shifting a few hundred miles SW to encompass a fair chunk of Ireland.

Why can't the boundary form over Ireland? Dare I say, it seems a fairly plausible outcome considering what has played out over the last six weeks.

There was a boundary of air masses over the island a few times recently.

Donegal Storm

John.Icy wrote: »

Brilliant. Didn't have the huge numbers boards had but it had pretty much all the big cheeses present and was a great little place.

I wonder how the live chat feature would work on boards

Bloody court cases and restraining orders for the arguing that would ensue I'd say.

What happened to IWN in the end? I was a regular for years but stopped visiting when I moved abroad and it was gone by the time I moved back home

Danno

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The cold air is taking quite a while to filter in... should’ve been here by now.

The last of the North Sea mild sector from last week is being washed out now... It shouldn't take long more.

I'd hazard a guess come 6AM in your location you'd start to fell the full effects of this.

sicknotexi

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

It’s not. I’m still waiting on temps dropping.

It has got colder where I'm at anyway.

gimpotronitus

Am I the only one who wonders why met.ie lumps Dublin in with "Leinster" or the "east" on their forecasts? Seems very generic, lazy and unprofessional to me. I mean there is 1.3m people living in Dublin. Can they not give us an accurate forecast?

I mean no offense to Wicklow, Wexford or Louth but the sheep and cows are more impacted by weather there than people are.

Nqp15hhu

Danno wrote: »

The last of the North Sea mild sector from last week is being washed out now... It shouldn't take long more.

I'd hazard a guess come 6AM in your location you'd start to fell the full effects of this.

Would’ve expected humidity and temps to be lower than 3c right now. That’s what the models showed.

Nqp15hhu

gimpotronitus wrote: »

Am I the only one who wonders why met.ie lumps Dublin in with "Leinster" or the "east" on their forecasts? Seems very generic, lazy and unprofessional to me. I mean there is 1.3m people living in Dublin. Can they not give us an accurate forecast?

I mean no offense to Wicklow, Wexford or Louth but the sheep and cows are more impacted by weather there than people are.

The Dublin area isn’t that large of a area, so the weather isn’t going to vary that much.

Davaeo09

Regarding the comment above. Weather might not vary that much, snow accumulations do and certainly will vary.

gimpotronitus wrote: »

Am I the only one who wonders why met.ie lumps Dublin in with "Leinster" or the "east" on their forecasts? Seems very generic, lazy and unprofessional to me. I mean there is 1.3m people living in Dublin. Can they not give us an accurate forecast?

to answer your question - no for streamers they cannot accurately forecast it. There's plenty of reasons why that have been discussed but the basic gist is it is going to be a local low probability high impact event.
The distance of 1-2km's could see huge changes in amounts for some places.

Tomorrow morning should give a clearer "idea" of where these can pop up but generally radars are poor at picking up convection on the Irish sea. Before you know it your part of Dublin could have a streamer over your head for a any where from 1hour+

It's just too difficult to pin down exact locations for snow here in Ireland. That and how rare it is is the reason, me and many others flock here during events to learn from those more well informed

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

Some runs were not looking all that great in terms of a frontal snow event. .

Most were most were equally, and in some cases, more favorable if that is what you are looking for, so I don't recognise what you are saying here.

The rest of your explanation fails to suffice.

gimpotronitus

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The Dublin area isn’t that large of a area, so the weather isn’t going to vary that much.

Ok, but that does not explain why met.ie Dublin forecasts are lumped in with "the east" or the very broad "Leinster". Tells me nothing where I live in South county Dublin. Thought forecasts were supposed to tell me what weather I should expect.

Nqp15hhu

gimpotronitus wrote: »

Ok, but that does not explain why met.ie Dublin forecasts are lumped in with "the east" or the very broad "Leinster". Tells me nothing where I live in South county Dublin. Thought forecasts were supposed to tell me what weather I should expect.

We have regional forecasts here covering a smaller area. I am not sure why Met.ie doesn’t have regional tv stations or forecasts.

Oneiric 3

Donegal Storm wrote: »

What happened to IWN in the end? I was a regular for years but stopped visiting when I moved abroad and it was gone by the time I moved back home

I bought my weather station off Snowbie I think back in 2008. Still going to strong today! Couple of extremities failed in the meantime as you would expect but it was a clearly a well looked after machine when I got it.

TTLF

gimpotronitus wrote: »

Ok, but that does not explain why met.ie Dublin forecasts are lumped in with "the east" or the very broad "Leinster". Tells me nothing where I live in South county Dublin. Thought forecasts were supposed to tell me what weather I should expect.

I mean in fairness, with streamers they'll just be happening along the coast, we literally cannot tell where showers will pop up, and even so if they do, it's completely based on wind direction, so the generic "east Leinster" has to suffice in this situation because they could occur anywhere between Wexford to Louth...

Met.ie generated computer forecasts (if you're looking at those) are very poor anyway, and typically don't do well if at all for anything in relation to actual weather and changes from run to run. I'd just go off of the text version provided for more accuracy.

In the text provided, they do do Dublin separately, but as seen it only goes out to roughly 48 hours. Just how MÉT works I guess... :pac:

dsaint1

sicknotexi wrote: »

It has got colder where I'm at anyway.

Yeah, but you're not in Limavady so it's not important and does not count.

dak

I have reared 3 children and this thread sometimes reminds me of those years! When it was time to go for a walk we looked outside and put on the appropriate clothing and footwear.. A now cast! We never sat down and discussed the conditions that might exist fora walk that was several days away.

Rearing children is like a forecast.. Except you take it day by day and you don't wish your life away over snow or no snow.

If you live long enough you will experience all that nature throws at you... In the meantime live life and enjoy it!

Nqp15hhu

Always find it odd how these cold air masses flow through at altitude but take so long to mix down to the surface, whilst in continental North America etc the cold air immediately flows through at ground level.

Oneiric 3

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Always find it odd how these cold air masses flow through at altitude but take so long to mix down to the surface, whilst in continental North America etc the cold air immediately flows through at ground level.

Ireland is an island surrounded by warm waters in pretty much every direction. I posted a video animation earlier on showing how this Arctic air mass is filtering through with vexatious ease into NE Europe (huge land mass) but struggling to maintain its intensity once it exits Norway into our watery side.