Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Nqp15hhu

Yes I posted about this several times, we had 3-4 inches of snow at altitude on Tuesday. It hasn’t snowed since, nor has it rained since about Friday.

TTLF

Not sure what to make of the farming forecast, however even though it's still uncertain what's happening I did like hearing the "further accumulations of snow/sleet in the East into friday" which could sound like either the low stalling or the colder uppers clinging onto the east... or both!

Kermit.de.frog

AuntySnow wrote: »

3.3c/-0.7c
Arklow
Wind NE 21kmh

Temperature tracking Howth pretty much. 3.2c/-1.6 there.

BringBackMick

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Because right above is a strong inversion, capping convection and therefore limiting snow intensity. It's always been looking that way, which is why the high accumulation totals being mentioned for Monday-Wednesday seem unlikely, imo. Thursday will be a different story.

But isn’t there always a strong inversion in lake effect snow ?

It’s always fairly shallow stuff

highdef

BringBackMick wrote: »

But isn’t there always a strong inversion in lake effect snow ?

It’s always fairly shallow stuff

The inversion is too low to allow decent convection.

Oneiric 3

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

in fact the sun just came out through the clouds.

This'll probably be most of us in the west when the sun eventually does (if it ever does) come out again:

speckle

Not very technically minded when it comes to the weather and need a text interperation to understand...so thanks Gaoth for how to read that particular type of chart earlier in the thread.

Normally only rely on what my senses give me from my surroundings and reading forecasts by boards here or met Ireland or similiar others further afield ...oh and an observatory on the coast (that ones great for myself or telling the folks up country whether to hang out the washing to dry!)

So airing out the house here with all the windows open before the temperatures drop...marginal for snow here but fingers crossed and in the spirit of the thread for you all elsewhere around Ireland

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiSn2JuDQSc

Let it Snow

hollowlands

highdef wrote: »

The photographic evidence begs to differ.

Yeah it's from the start of the week. Do you have a link to that webcam? Can't find it on Google

Slashermcguirk

I love snow but i really hope we don’t get wet snow :-(

I am still convinced we might see some good snow this week

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Wettish snow falling at the Tottenham - WBA match in London now.

lucernarian

John.Icy wrote: »

I'm guessing it's case of in years gone by we approached these things in a much more simplified fashion. Half the snow threads here years ago for NW'rlys used to have no info beyond the 850s looking OK. Worked out some of the time, others not really.

I definitely don't remember all these soundings and analysis of cloudtops and convection potential in the likes of 2010. Maybe a case of all those things fell into place while we all only ever looked at the likes of 850s vs. SSTs saying yes.

But now on an event-by-event basis we go through all that information and not all the pieces of the puzzle are there this time.

Gaoth Laidir's thread from 2019 on what's required for snow in Ireland was a real insight into how complicated it can be and that thread doesn't even get started on cloudntops and convection or wind speeds etc. etc.

Yeah that's a good post. I used a lot of 850 hPa and 700 hPa wind speed charts back then as they were vital in the early days of the outbreak for predicting which places would be under hours of snow. There was also a lot of input from the mesoscale models, harmonie, Euro4 and Hirlam, which I haven't seen much of this time around.

It might be a good lesson for all rampers along the east coast perhaps, but I'll have a look on the PC later at some of the high-res models and see if there's anything interesting in store.

Gaoth Laidir

BringBackMick wrote: »

But isn’t there always a strong inversion in lake effect snow ?

It’s always fairly shallow stuff

No, not necessarily. It was deep cold with steep lapse rates right through the atmosphere, as per this sounding from Albermarle on Nov 30th, 2010.

lucernarian

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Because right above is a strong inversion, capping convection and therefore limiting snow intensity. It's always been looking that way, which is why the high accumulation totals being mentioned for Monday-Wednesday seem unlikely, imo. Thursday will be a different story.

Don't get me wrong, I know there's a lot of snags in what's being forecast over the next 4 days but this didn't stop our infectious enthusiasm earlier this week. The hardest part is getting the cold air here in the first place, so it's strange to clear that hurdle so well without the rest of the pieces coming together.

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Wettish snow falling at the Tottenham - WBA match in London now.

Webcam looking East from the top of the Shard towards Westminster Bridge is showing white rooftops below

https://www.visitlondon.com/things-to-do/sightseeing/london-attraction/webcams-of-london

lucernarian

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

No, not necessarily. It was deep cold with steep lapse rates right through the atmosphere, as per this sounding from Albermarle on Nov 30th, 2010.

I see an inversion there at the 680 hPa level, curiously

Slashermcguirk

Clutching at straws though, looks fairly miserable with no snow on the ground. It’s all or nothing for me. I really dislike that wet snow that doesn’t stick properly, slushy mess and you can’t even make a snowball. I would rather freezing sunny weather than sleety snow like that

AuntySnow wrote: »

Webcam looking East from the top of the Shard towards Westminster Bridge is showing white rooftops below

https://www.visitlondon.com/things-to-do/sightseeing/london-attraction/webcams-of-london

Reckless Abandonment

No warnings for M.E. thats not a good sign.

ninebeanrows

Cold airmass has really arrived into N Dublin now..

Howth 3.2/-1.7

Gonzo

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

No warnings for M.E. thats not a good sign.

too early yet, not much is going to happen until tomorrow. I'd expect a yellow warning at the most for ice and snow. Orange warning maybe on Thursday if the frontal system crosses the country and stalls with snow.

Slashermcguirk

They are giving moderate accumulations in the east by Tuesday, not the worst, if we only got 5cm of snow by Tuesday I wouldn’t say no

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

No warnings for M.E. thats not a good sign.

The One Doctor

lucernarian wrote: »

Don't get me wrong, I know there's a lot of snags in what's being forecast over the next 4 days but this didn't stop our infectious enthusiasm earlier this week. The hardest part is getting the cold air here in the first place, so it's strange to clear that hurdle so well without the rest of the pieces coming together.

Better to be cautious than be over enthusiastic about weather. This is Ireland, not Norway. We're almost always going to have mild weather.

I'm looking forward to a few flakes later in the week because there's three of us in isolation here in the countryside and it's boring, so any distractions are welcome.

Other than that I find the wind storms more interesting than the snow.

Gaoth Laidir

lucernarian wrote: »

Don't get me wrong, I know there's a lot of snags in what's being forecast over the next 4 days but this didn't stop our infectious enthusiasm earlier this week. The hardest part is getting the cold air here in the first place, so it's strange to clear that hurdle so well without the rest of the pieces coming together.

That's just the way it is, I'm afraid. Focusing on just one level (850 hPa) can always give a false sense of security.

For the record, here were reported snow depths from December 2010, the first from early in the month (note the huge difference between Casement and Dublin airport, the streamer effect), the second from Christmas morning. Pretty impressive, though I think that metre of snow at Knock was an error.

Ptrk85

The day of the Easterly has finally arrived, the last 10 days has been a rollercoaster of will it/won't it model watching, it's been a wild ride at times! Altogether it made for great reading and some badly needed escapism from the past 12 month's. Best of luck to everyone, hopefully we all see some snow over the coming week 🙂

thecretinhop

my friend in Kent is getting pasted write now

JCX BXC

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

No warnings for M.E. thats not a good sign.

Advisory in place.

I reckon any warnings, if they will be issued, wouldn't have been until late this evening anyway.

Gaoth Laidir

lucernarian wrote: »

I see an inversion there at the 680 hPa level, curiously

That's insignificant. It's not going to stop any parcels from rising through it.

highdef

hollowlands wrote: »

Yeah it's from the start of the week. Do you have a link to that webcam? Can't find it on Google

https://www.tiitraffic.ie/cams/

CirrusBusiness

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

No warnings for M.E. thats not a good sign.

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

No warnings for M.E. thats not a good sign.

Probably be up later today. Expect to see more around mid-week though. We are already seeing our first heavy snow shower here. (Mt Leinster)

Humberto Salazar

I can hear tumbleweed in the distance, there's not much more to be squeezed out of this 'event'. Be interesting to see GFS's bitter cold easterly for the 20th onwards, or whether that fizzles out too.

highdef

CirrusBusiness wrote: »

Probably be up later today. Expect to see more around mid-week though. We are already seeing our first heavy snow shower here. (Mt Leinster)

Now? There's nothing at all showing up on any of the radars so am confused that there is heavy snow there, or any snow for that matter.

Slashermcguirk

Radars don’t always pick up showers well

highdef wrote: »

Now? There's nothing at all showing up on any of the radars so am confused that there is heavy snow there, or any snow for that matter.