Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Steopo

d51984 wrote: »

Dublin 5 and I can smell the snow!

Only yellow snow smells :-)

Bitter out there now with the wind chill, not 2010 levels with icicles & frozen footpaths but maybe that’s next week :-)

compsys

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Met Éireann usually issues the warnings when the event is underway ....
Better chance of being right then.

In fairness a lot could go wrong between now and Thursday. I think we forget how variable our little climate is.

The conditions for snow in Ireland are usually on a knife edge at the very best of times.

Any other country could probably forecast a snow storm with good confidence at least 72 to 96 hours in advance - in Ireland you just can't.

Met Eireann would be crazy to issue a snow warning for Thursday now imo. It could still easily be just a rain event or even remain cold with the low pressure missing us entirely.

Already their earlier warnings for significant accumulations in the East from Mon to Wed look to be wrong.

I'd imagine they're conscious not to get it wrong again.

If I were them I'd issue something on Tuesday morning after the latest ECM run at the earliest.

Darc19

So based on the posts in the last couple of hours, there's as much chance of any serious snow before Thursday as there is of warm sunshine.

And even Thursday is now in doubt.

Basically a boring, cold & damp week?


And it looked so promising

Nqp15hhu

Well this Tuesday the UTV weather said the snow risk had gone and we would just have rain. Instead we got at least 2-3 inches at altitude.

So they definitely do get it wrong. Recently most of the errors have been down to precipitation intensity and location.

Gonzo

looks like there might be snow flurries now in Louth if the Netweather radar is correct, looks very light stuff so it may not even be visible.

Slashermcguirk

Light snow forecast tomorrow and moderate accumulations on Tuesday in the east

Darc19 wrote: »

So based on the posts in the last couple of hours, there's as much chance of any serious snow before Thursday as there is of warm sunshine.

And even Thursday is now in doubt.

Basically a boring, cold & damp week?


And it looked so promising

typhoony

compsys wrote: »

In fairness a lot could go wrong between now and Thursday. I think we forget how variable our little climate is.

The conditions for snow in Ireland are usually on a knife edge at the very best of times.

Any other country could probably forecast a snow storm with good confidence at least 72 to 96 hours in advance - in Ireland you just can't.

Met Eireann would be crazy to issue a snow warning for Thursday now imo. It could still easily be just a rain event or even remain cold with the low pressure missing us entirely.

Already their earlier warnings for significant accumulations in the East from Mon to Wed look to be wrong.

I'd imagine they're conscious not to get it wrong again.

If I were them I'd issue something on Tuesday morning after the latest ECM run at the earliest.

the colder air has only just arrived and we're still waiting on more unstable air to arrive in the early on Monday morning,too early to write-off signficant snow.

Captain Snow

Darc19 wrote: »

So based on the posts in the last couple of hours, there's as much chance of any serious snow before Thursday as there is of warm sunshine.

And even Thursday is now in doubt.

Basically a boring, cold & damp week?


And it looked so promising

Its going to get cold. ( It Has).

There will be wintery showers. ( They Have started ).

Some will get Snow. ( East Coast starting off ).

Some will get alot of Snow. ( When/If the front stalls over certain parts of the country Thursday /Friday).

Models are becoming very Dynamic. ( Upgrades ? Down Grades....).

Changing every 4 Hours approximately.

Enjoy the Roller Coaster. :)

Cloudio9

OneEightSeven wrote: »

Every time we get an easterly, I always hear a relentless, eerie roar coming from the eastern sky. It sounds like a waterfall or a swollen river in the distance. Might have something to do with all of the tall trees behind my house, but it's not even windy out.

How far are you from the coast? there’s a great roar off the Irish Sea in north county Dublin tonight.

So tonights EC. Lifts away the cold uppers by Friday but keeps the surface cold especially in the East
By Tuesday you're probably going to see it keep us into the colder uppers Friday and the weekend and probably stall that front somewhere to the soutb
Thats the amount of day to day change we've been seeing to now so I'd not be surprised

ninebeanrows

A vague idea of where some snow might be lying by midday Wednesday

Holy Duck

Gonzo wrote:

looks like there might be snow flurries now in Louth if the Netweather radar is correct, looks very light stuff so it may not even be visible.

Thought I was seeing things, but your right, just had a heavy fall of invisible stuff. ( Sorry, couldn't resist)

TheMilkyPirate

Darc19 wrote: »

So based on the posts in the last couple of hours, there's as much chance of any serious snow before Thursday as there is of warm sunshine.

And even Thursday is now in doubt.

Basically a boring, cold & damp week?


And it looked so promising

The forecast for Thursday hasn't got any worse, it's getting better if anything.

tikkamark

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I see the ECM has upped the streamer potential from tomorrow. Could be a few cms in the east.

The streamer action is showing up very strong on the gfs on windy app Tuesday and Wednesday for the east

brianthomas

Chalkitdown147 wrote: »

Seems east coast radar is fecked whats the best alternative to follow possible precipitation??? Apologise in advance if answered already

Rain Today is a good site.

mcburns07

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I've been staying quiet today because confidence is seeping away a small bit
Reasons:
- subtle changes in uppers Mon to Wed while still very cold are slightly higher than yesterday's show
- Perhaps linked to this ppn is a little less especially for those of us in the South
- Met Eireann see very little snow before Thursday
( I kid you not I actually nodded off during the 630pm broadcast)
- While Thursday might deliver for further North I don't see anything for the South coast apart from maybe a sleety wet mix.

So still all to play for but small nudges give me doubts on snow further South.

Very pessimistic about our chances now too. Expecting nothing in coastal east Cork.

AuntySnow

AuntySnow wrote: »

So tonights EC. Lifts away the cold uppers by Friday but keeps the surface cold especially in the East
By Tuesday you're probably going to see it keep us into the colder uppers Friday and the weekend and probably stall that front somewhere to the soutb
Thats the amount of day to day change we've been seeing to now so I'd not be surprised

The low will head back to the US soon enough. If trends continue.

ninebeanrows

ninebeanrows wrote: »

A vague idea of where some snow might be lying by midday Wednesday

Some flurries blowing about here near Arklow at the moment
Flakes not grains

m17

Ballymun February 1982 let's hope for more of the same this week

cherryghost

A few snow flurries in Clondalkin this evening.

notwhoyouthink

To quote Lenny Kravitz, it ain't over till its over :cool:

CrowdedHouse

ninebeanrows wrote: »

A vague idea of where some snow might be lying by midday Wednesday

Good stuff nothing near me

TECH85

Going off most recent guidance anyone care to share what they think might happen with the low approach later in the week ? I know its a few days out and all up in the air at the moment :-)

wicklowdub

Little flurries of graple in Shankill again. Bitter cold wind and can hear the roar from the Sea.

gozunda

Paso Fino wrote: »

My unscientific observation is that the weather is going to be bitter with rain/sleet/snow tonight - the cat is refusing to step out the door!

I am close enough to Dublin airport though, latest METAR is 2 degrees, DP -4 degrees, 21kt E winds

Trust the cat. Cats know things we don't...

snowstorm445

Been snowing consistently here in Belgium for about 24 hours, mostly light and very fine powdery snow as well. Will probably clear up tomorrow and remain dry for the coming week. Could fall as low as -12C on Tuesday or Wednesday, as if COVID wasn't reason enough not to venture outside. :eek:

Natterjack from Kerry

Not really up on all the tech talk, but trying to catch up : are 'streamers' the last hope of the desperate ?

Donegal Ken

Status Yellow warnings for snow and ice for Eastern parts are likely to be issued Monday morning by Met Éireann. They will be likely updated on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday playing it day by day. I think if parts of the east start to see good accumulations they will then be at risk of a updated orange warning.

Thursdays events will most likely see warnings issued Wednesday morning. And based on the current model outputs for Thursday into Friday your looking at a high orange or red Snow/ice warning for places especially in parts of the North Connacht, Ulster and Leinster.

Low temperature warnings also most likely will be issued.

I think come tomorrow morning and afternoon they will pick up the pace.

TTLF

Surprised to see small ongoing flurries here in SCD. Very light in nature ofc, but very intriguing to see none the less. Radar's show nothing but there are flakes in the wind...

you can really hear that wind roar though, I live in a valley and outside the front upper bedroom there's a crane I can see well to the right which is being used to build the house up there, and it's actually swaying a bit in the wind! :eek:

Fics

The lamppost out my East facing window has been shaking steadily for the last hour or two, some strong gusts out there!

I'm about 1km in from the coast (Meath).