Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Rebelbrowser

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Not a great EC for longer term cold. Eeeek

Yeah, not liking this. Not sure we ever even get -8s here in south Munster.

Little snowy old me

bb1234567 wrote: »

Is this snow event legit now? Or is there still a chance of it falling through? Just gotta say, quite surprised by how sudden all this is!

It appeared to be legit up to this afternoon but I'm not liking the tone in the models thread. Some are beginning to say things are downgrading... fingers crossed that it's just a wobble in the models this evening.

ZX7R

Little snowy old me wrote: »

It appeared to be legit up to this afternoon but I'm not liking the tone in the models thread. Some are beginning to say things are downgrading... fingers crossed that it's just a wobble in the models this evening.

Downgrading for the longevity of the cold spell.
Your still going to get 3 or 4 days

Reckless Abandonment

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Not a great EC for longer term cold. Eeeek

Damm I just finished counting my chickens...

On a serious note. Snow from Sunday to Wednesday I'd take your arm off for that.

D9Male

Yes, I said it earlier. But this evolution is very messy. I trust GFS in these setups. For sure there is a risk that we are not getting sufficient heights built to the north. There is very good potential still in the medium term, but we have to be realistic and note there is a real prospect of a short-lived snap. With southerly air possibly encroaching by Wednesday.

But the early part of next week should be fun.

Little snowy old me

ZX7R wrote: »

Downgrading for the longevity of the cold spell.
Your still going to get 3 or 4 days

Unfortunately there is a tendency for breakdowns in cold spells to arrive on time or get brought forward. We may be lucky to get a mere 3 days out of this. Also, I doubt I'll see snow in Donegal. But I will still enjoy the cold frosty weather. I wish everyone in the east good luck getting some snow.

pistolpetes11

Little snowy old me wrote: »

It appeared to be legit up to this afternoon but I'm not liking the tone in the models thread. Some are beginning to say things are downgrading... fingers crossed that it's just a wobble in the models this evening.

You need to understand the model thread , the tone flips and flops as per the run , some folks are looking for the long entrenched cold which is why the tone will be down when FI is showing a breakdown ,

Rite now we are looking good for a decent cold spell , who knows what will happen out in FI or if there is decent snow cover on the ground , might entrench the cold more .

Personally I tend not to react on run to run variances as it would drive you crazy

Captain Snow

https://www.thejournal.ie/weather-cold-snow-5344352-Feb2021/

Its in the News now

Nqp15hhu

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Fair enough, but it would be nice to get some decent temps for the rest of us to remember this easterly by. ICON, which handles temps fairly OK and which only goes out to 120hrs, has minima something akin to a flat tyre on Mon morn:



Perhaps once the colder air become entrenched in the days after, that something a bit more compelling regarding temps will be in the offing.

My forecast shows a lot of cloud. So perhaps that’s the cause of the poor minima.

Sleety_Rain

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Not a great EC for longer term cold. Eeeek

Depends if those lows slide,they probably will

ayjayirl

So when is the snow likely to start in Leinster? Monday?

ayjayirl

ayjayirl wrote: »

So when is the snow likely to start in Leinster? Monday?

Possibly Saturday evening
Probably by Sunday evening

Humberto Salazar

Poor ECM. Was hoping for a stream of LP systems undercutting and sliding south enhancing snow activity. But we get typical storms pushing milder gale force winds at the end of the run. This might be a three day wonder now. Earlier, it looked like a prolonged spell. It can change but we need a lot of luck now. I'm crushed.

nacho libre

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Poor ECM. Was hoping for a stream of LP systems undercutting and sliding south enhancing snow activity. But we get typical storms pushing milder gale force winds at the end of the run. This might be a three day wonder now. Earlier, it looked like a prolonged spell. It can change but we need a lot of luck now. I'm crushed.

Welcome back Humberto. I hope you found the culprit who hacked your account earlier:D

ninebeanrows

EC really only has snow showers into Leinster from around 3am Monday through till 1800 Tuesday, then there is the first attempted breakdown into Wednesday bringing some snow to Munster before heavy rain preceded by snow extends north on Thursday

ZX7R

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Unfortunately there is a tendency for breakdowns in cold spells to arrive on time or get brought forward. We may be lucky to get a mere 3 days out of this. Also, I doubt I'll see snow in Donegal. But I will still enjoy the cold frosty weather. I wish everyone in the east good luck getting some snow.

Today is the first mind day I've had for about two weeks, big taw on at the moment
We had about 18cm of snow build up over that period.

Slashermcguirk

You are referring to weather about 7 days away, that’s very hard to predict in even normal weather. We seem to have the early days locked in which is the main thing now

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Poor ECM. Was hoping for a stream of LP systems undercutting and sliding south enhancing snow activity. But we get typical storms pushing milder gale force winds at the end of the run. This might be a three day wonder now. Earlier, it looked like a prolonged spell. It can change but we need a lot of luck now. I'm crushed.

Sleety_Rain

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

EC really only has snow showers into Leinster from around 3am Monday through till 1800 Tuesday, then there is the first attempted breakdown into Wednesday bringing some snow to Munster before heavy rain preceded by snow extends north on Thursday

Un thanked
Concerning I suppose as its not a bad little model at 4 days out
However if incoming Atlantic visitors head southeast, different story
I don't like adding an if this goes here and that goes there but up against that wall of dense air and form to date,talkng beyond 144hrs is iffy yet (maybe)

ninebeanrows

AuntySnow wrote: »

Un thanked
Concerning I suppose as its not a bad little model at 4 days out
However if incoming Atlantic visitors head southeast, different story
I don't like adding an if this goes here and that goes there but up against that wall of dense air and form to date,talkng beyond 144hrs is iffy yet (maybe)

In 2018, the 36 hours of streamer snow was much nicer up this way than Storm Emma, even with 36 hours of good lake effect potential one can easily get 10-20cm.

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

Welcome back Humberto. I hope you found the culprit who hacked your account earlier:D

Definitely reset his password and back with us again!

lucernarian

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

In 2018, the 36 hours of streamer snow was much nicer up this way than Storm Emma, even with 36 hours of good lake effect potential one can easily get 10-20cm.

30cm is quite possible in that timeframe.

Holy Duck

No need to be looking for a puncture while the tyre is full of air

esposito

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

In 2018, the 36 hours of streamer snow was much nicer up this way than Storm Emma, even with 36 hours of good lake effect potential one can easily get 10-20cm.

The one disappointing aspect to Storm Emma is that the snow was like dust. Tiny grains. No thanks. Prefer the bigger flakes

Kermit.de.frog

esposito wrote: »

The one disappointing aspect to Storm Emma is that the snow was like dust. Tiny grains. No thanks. Prefer the bigger flakes

Snow grains build up very quickly. Catches a lot of people out because they assume it's rain.

Ursulal

Brz555 wrote: »

I remember during the BFTE the streamers made it as far west as Galway city, we got plastered before Emma even hit. Was just constant conveyor from east to west on the radar.

Outside Loughrea 2nd of March 2018

Gonzo

esposito wrote: »

The one disappointing aspect to Storm Emma is that the snow was like dust. Tiny grains. No thanks. Prefer the bigger flakes

I remember there were times it almost looked like rain, the flakes were indeed tiny. At the same time dinner plates are great to look at but those are usually from marginal conditions where it can turn back to sleet at any point. December 2010 had lovely flakes, decent size powder flakes.

At the moment this cold spell is looking like a February 2009 to me. Two to three days of streamers. The wind could be slightly variable too so hopefully those dreaded shadows don't stay in the one place for too long.

kegg

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Poor ECM. Was hoping for a stream of LP systems undercutting and sliding south enhancing snow activity. But we get typical storms pushing milder gale force winds at the end of the run. This might be a three day wonder now. Earlier, it looked like a prolonged spell. It can change but we need a lot of luck now. I'm crushed.

Why are you crushed? You may get 3 days of snow while here in mayo looks like nothing. Maybe you aimed too high with your "1947esque" comment a day or 2 ago.

The chan chan man

My money’s on about 1-2cm of snow in Dublin Monday which will be gone by Tuesday

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

I remember there were times it almost looked like rain, the flakes were indeed tiny. At the same time dinner plates are great to look at but those are usually from marginal conditions where it can turn back to sleet at any point. December 2010 had lovely flakes, decent size powder flakes.

At the moment this cold spell is looking like a February 2009 to me. Two to three days of streamers. The wind could be slightly variable too so hopefully those dreaded shadows don't stay in the one place for too long.

We did well in Feb 2009 here in Dublin 16 so would take something similar next week.

Am hoping we get a more prolonged spell than 2-3 days but if it does get milder from Thursday next week hopefully it’s only temporarily as per Met Éireann monthly outlook.

SEPT 23 1989

The 2018 snow was like getting sand blasted it took your breath away in the wind if you didn't have your mouth covered

Holy Duck

The chan chan man wrote:

My money’s on about 1-2cm of snow in Dublin Monday which will be gone by Tuesday

Bit below the belt there bucko

redsteveireland

esposito wrote: »

The one disappointing aspect to Storm Emma is that the snow was like dust. Tiny grains. No thanks. Prefer the bigger flakes

Can't remember which event but we had the biggest clumps of snow I have ever seen floating down from the sky, huge powdery clumps of dry snow, good for nothing.

gerrybhoy

The chan chan man wrote: »

My money’s on about 1-2cm of snow in Dublin Monday which will be gone by Tuesday

Bit late for tonight's Lotto numbers so any chance of Fridays euromillions numbers ta

bazlers

AuntySnow wrote: »

Possibly Saturday evening
Probably by Sunday evening

Same time as superbowl right on kick off

ninebeanrows

There is reasonable support for it to turn less cold from around Wednesday but still a fair few members holding it cold so very uncertain and will likely flip back and forth between now and then.

In meantime seems growing confidence that we get 850s of -8 of below from around Sunday evening to Tuesday night. A snow window depending on how the Irish Sea behaves.

Slashermcguirk

Is it not almost pointless to forecast beyond Tuesday anyway, there is no way that a forecast in these types of conditions could be accurate 7 days out. I think Sunday and Monday is close enough for pretty good accuracy but after that we probably won’t know until about Friday evening.

pauldry

Phone has 3c 2c and 3c as temperature in Sligo Sunday Monday Tuesday then 7c for all the days after. It's not really a surprise if it gets downgraded. Sure were well used to it. However no snowy spells anywhere seem to last too long nowadays so even one or two days of heavy snow would be enough.

During the Beast my daughter was sick of it after 2 hours

mcburns07

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

The 2018 snow was like getting sand blasted it took your breath away in the wind if you didn't have your mouth covered

Can't say I have prior experience of being sand blasted so i'll take your word for it :pac:

Little snowy old me

There's a change in mood. Some very doom and gloom posts. I can feel myself getting downbeat.....

bosco12345

Little snowy old me wrote: »

There's a change in mood. Some very doom and gloom posts. I can feel myself getting downbeat.....

If you followed the technical thread, the models chop and change so much it's just 50/50 really what happens after day 4/5. I'd take all the doom and gloom posts with a pinch of salt as were pretty much locked in to a good cold spell from Sunday - Wednesday with a high chance of snow in the eastern half of the country, I'd take that anyday

EMPotatohands

pauldry wrote: »

Phone has 3c 2c and 3c as temperature in Sligo Sunday Monday Tuesday then 7c for all the days after. It's not really a surprise if it gets downgraded. Sure were well used to it. However no snowy spells anywhere seem to last too long nowadays so even one or two days of heavy snow would be enough.

During the Beast my daughter was sick of it after 2 hours

My phone had it snowing in Ballyfermot for two hours non stop last week and about 8 flakes fell, I don’t think they’re very accurate

Oneiric 3

ECMWF 12z max and min forecast temps for Claremorris met station. -2.0c is the lowest on offer during this 'cold easterly' spell.

https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/5-397000/Ireland/Claremorris

This is simply unacceptable. Roll on next winter.

The chan chan man

Holy Duck wrote: »

Bit below the belt there bucko

What?

Kermit.de.frog

Why are some getting so flustered? Everything is on track. It'll be grand. :cool:

Calm down everyone.

nacho libre

Met EireannMONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 02 FEBRUARY 2021

Week 1 (Friday 05 February to Thursday 11 February)

A strong signal for low pressure dominant to the south and high pressure to the north, meaning Ireland will lie in a mainly easterly airflow. This will lead to below average temperatures for the week. Precipitation will likely be well below average for much of the country though showery conditions will feed into northeastern and eastern coastal counties, with above average precipitations amounts there. With the strong easterly flow, wind-chill will be a big factor for this week, with the potential for winds to impact eastern coasts. Some wintry precipitation is likely, especially in the north and east. Widespread frosts at night, with hazardous conditions where ice forms.



Week 2 (Friday 12 February to Thursday 18 February)

Low pressure in mid-Atlantic will likely extend its influence over Ireland with a mainly southwesterly airflow. This will mark a change from the previous week with temperatures recovering to more normal levels. Precipitation levels will increase to above normal for much of the country. Wind and rainfall are the main potential hazards in this setup.



Week 3 (Friday 19 February to Thursday 25 February)



High pressure to the north looks set to be the dominate feature for the week. This would lead to mainly settled conditions, much drier than average with temperatures around normal.There is a risk of some frosty nights with calm conditions. Mist and fog are possible hazards.



Week 4 (Friday 26 February to Thursday 04 March)



The high pressure is indicated to decline northwards, leading to a northeasterly airflow developing over Ireland. This would likely lead to colder than average temperatures but still predominately drier than average for much of the country with perhaps showers feeding into the northeast and east. Possible hazards are wintry flurries in the northeast and east, frosty nights for much of the country.

Look good for some further snow opportunities throughout the month. I'd love to it to stay cold for a month without interruption, but events like 2009 and 2010 are exceptionally rare. Indeed if i recall correctly even 2009 and 2010 had some milder blips.

ari101

Well we might not get snow worth talking about, but ye sure passed a few hours of boredom for me

Who knew fetch is not just a word for dogs, and I never realised IOM had a shadow?

Way over my head, but the excitement (and possibly mindless optimism?) is palpable and infectious. Despite the fact I can't wear proper snow suitable shoes at the moment, and need new tyres for the car, I'm here rooting for a good accumulation - nuts!

Some lovely throw backs, pic and videos as well as the momentum building charts, must lurk round in here more often

Little snowy old me

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Everything is on track. It'll be grand. :cool:

Calm down everyone.

Steady heads needed.....

Cluedo Monopoly

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Why are some getting so flustered? Everything is on track. It'll be grand. :cool:

Calm down everyone.

I want helicopters falling from the sky!

Reversal

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECMWF 12z max and min forecast temps for Claremorris met station. -2.0c is the lowest on offer during this 'cold easterly' spell.

https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/5-397000/Ireland/Claremorris

This is simply unacceptable. Roll on next winter.

Yeah well there won't be radiative cooling at night as there will be strong winds, cloud cover and fairly persistent percip over Leinster throughout l, so maxes of 1 and lows of -2/-3 that are progged for the east under those conditions are quite cold. Can hardly be compared to a shallow layer of -5 temps just on the surface on a calm clear night. Apples and oranges.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECMWF 12z max and min forecast temps for Claremorris met station. -2.0c is the lowest on offer during this 'cold easterly' spell.

https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/5-397000/Ireland/Claremorris

This is simply unacceptable. Roll on next winter.

That comment is unacceptable paddy1! It's the naughty corner for you bucko:)!

Don't listen to him mr easterly and snow!