Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

Gaoth Laidir

Meteorite58 wrote: »

No, It is just a 24 hr model.

30 hours

Meteorite58

AROME's current take on it, chart is for cumulative snow. hail, graupel and doesn't take into account melt or what is washed out, looking very wet along the South coast.

Looking at the WRF and it is showing mostly higher elevation snow and very light in general at ground level.

GFS in general quite light in most places apart from higher elevations.

Gaoth Laidir

12Z ECMWF simulated radar from now to Saturday night. Really reduces to light intensity overnight tomorrow and Friday morning. Just a centimetre ot two at best for the a lot of the midlands and northern Leinster. The ICON Flash would seem similar.

Meteorite58

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

30 hours

Whoops....


https://meteologix.com/ie

European HD Flash (ICON-EU) (intermediate deadlines, 1 day)
This product displays output from a special model that can adapt to rapidly changing weather situations. The model can be run every three hours to provide the most updated information both to forecasters and to you. It is run at a high resolution but only for Europe and it only goes out 30 hours into the future.

ninebeanrows

Any snow in Dundalk tonight?

DOCARCH

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Any snow in Dundalk tonight?

You tell us?

Tyrone212

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Latest UKV model animation for tomorrow snowfall.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DonegalWeatherC/status/1359582324363509761

How well does UKV perform? I've only noticed it recently. And on that one occasion it was a good bit off.

derekon

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

12Z ECMWF simulated radar from now to Saturday night. Really reduces to light intensity overnight tomorrow and Friday morning. Just a centimetre ot two at best for the a lot of the midlands and northern Leinster. The ICON Flash would seem similar.

1cm or 2cm? This is the “significant” snowfall that was flagged by Met Éireann last week?

Outrageous altogether that it has come down to a bit of snizzle tomorrow night!

GL, thank you for your posts. They make horrific reading for snow lovers but you are only saying it as it is.

Do you see any strong potential for snow in Leinster on Friday night?

When I say “snow”, I don’t mean snizzle and I mean something above the 1cm mark, which is paltry.

Thanks

D

Calibos

My expectations remain rock bottom based on those precipitation animations for Coastal Wicklow. A cm or two of a dusting by Friday Morning thats melted by noon at best. I don't trust any of the numbers as its likely that the pixel size issue talked about earlier will mean the higher amounts in the Wicklow mountains appear to cover Coastal Wicklow but in reality the precipitation will be light near the coast as it evaporates to nothing in that dry SE'rly flow by the time it gets this far north.

ninebeanrows

DOCARCH wrote: »

You tell us?

Apologies, posting in wrong thread...radar says yes but no obs! if there is nothing there, those crumbles on the radar to the east of Lambay definitely won't amount to much:P

noobsnow95

I noticed that on a lot of the precipitation charts and in general limerick City and central Limerick tends to show very little in terms of accumulations compared to west and east limerick. Does the Shannon have a big impact on this or would the lower altitude be the main reason? Would i be right to suggest that Limerick City will receive very little in terms of lying snow tomorrow and a quick turn to sleet in early afternoon?

Meteorite58

So after taking in all the models I am thinking ( just my opinion out of an interest ) it is perhaps going to snow lightly in general 1 to 3 cm or thereabouts, patchy, a few areas could get 5cm or so, good coatings on high ground and inland hilly terrain of up around 10 cm or so. Windy with a lot of snow and wintry precipitation swirling about and bitter cold.

Initially quite wintry in Southern areas and turning increasingly to sleet and rain as the day progresses more so towards coastal areas ( will stay very wet here for much of the weekend leading to possible floods )



Temperatures rising slowly in the SW into Fri, elsewhere widespread frosts or close to freezing later Thursday night into Fri, a lot of the country staying cold on Fri away from the SW. Thinking there could be lying snow away from coasts into early Friday especially hilly terrain. Rain on Fri should take care of snow left in most areas apart from the North Midlands perhaps, NE and perhaps parts of the E where it looks like getting wintry again and possibly turning to snow. Models currently showing the possibility of a good dump of snow in N Leinster , North Midlands perhaps and Ulster late Fri and more so into early Sat, following rain later Sat and Sun could wash this out fairly quickly.

Looking quite windy at times over the weekend, SE to S and SW on Sunday, could see 12 or 13C by Sunday afternoon.

YanSno

As mentioned days ago that south easterly dry air will weaken and dissipate the precipitation as it moves up along the country. Most models are leaning towards very light and patchy precipitation, 1cm - 5cm along south, south east, Midlands and 1cm - 2cm east that if the band even makes it that far east which am still in doubt. I'm bit more confident about Friday night into Saturday morning along the eastern half of the country, all parameters seems to be good for snow. Tomorrow night we should have a better idea how things will evolve for the weekend.

pad199207

I’ve now given in completely to the Wicklow mountain shadow

Not expecting anything here tomorrow

ZeroSum76

Meteorite58 wrote: »

So after taking in all the models I am thinking ( just my opinion out of an interest ) it is perhaps going to snow lightly in general 1 to 3 cm or thereabouts, patchy, a few areas could get 5cm or so, good coatings on high ground and inland hilly terrain of up around 10 cm or so. Windy with a lot of snow and wintry precipitation swirling about and bitter cold.

Thanks for the summary. That would do nicely if it panned out. I hope everyone gets something! I'd take 2cm at this stage !

Darc19

derekon wrote: »

1cm or 2cm? This is the “significant” snowfall that was flagged by Met Éireann last week?


D

6 days ago you said


"Met Éireann just confirming Ireland shouldn’t be too impacted by snow. The UK will take the brunt of it"

So in effect, met eireann were spot on.

Oneiric 3

pad199207 wrote: »

I’ve now given in completely to the Wicklow mountain shadow

Not expecting anything here tomorrow

You live in south Dublin I think, so you never know, a big eddy might form north of the Wicklow Mts and swirl snow back your way.

Davaeo09

Slightly annoyed at myself for getting carried away with my beliefs the Inland South East would do better tomorrow. But no, it looks like those that already had some, get more (Thursday night) and once again I am left cursing my luck in Kilkenny.

Gaoth Laidir

derekon wrote: »

1cm or 2cm? This is the “significant” snowfall that was flagged by Met Éireann last week?

Outrageous altogether that it has come down to a bit of snizzle tomorrow night!

GL, thank you for your posts. They make horrific reading for snow lovers but you are only saying it as it is.

Do you see any strong potential for snow in Leinster on Friday night?

When I say “snow”, I don’t mean snizzle and I mean something above the 1cm mark, which is paltry.

Thanks

D

I reckon we'll see that Friday night front stall a bit or at least be slower as the cold air pushes back westwards. I wouldn't be surprised to see this reflected in overnight models. If that does happen then maybe we could get a better stab at some actual accumulations instead of dustings.

It's all about the finer details now, but we're lacking a lot of upper data from aircraft so it's not as clear as it probably would have been back in 2018. I would like to have seen an 18Z balloon launch from Valentia today but they're still at the two per day.

Humberto Salazar

I don't know if there is a snow shadow in Offaly but I'm sure it'll work tomorrow.

pad199207

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

I don't know if there is a snow shadow in Offaly but I'm sure it'll work tomorrow.

It keeps away the rain so it will definitely keep away the snow!

Kermit.de.frog

Davaeo09 wrote: »

Slightly annoyed at myself for getting carried away with my beliefs the Inland South East would do better tomorrow. But no, it looks like those that already had some, get more (Thursday night) and once again I am left cursing my luck in Kilkenny.

Kilkenny looks good for snow to me. At least 3 - 5 cm possible.

colmwexford

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Kilkenny looks good for snow to me. At least 3 - 5 cm possible.

Could inland Wexford get something similar?

M.T. Cranium

If snow does turn out to be relatively light then freezing rain could show up in a few parts of the inland south and southeast, also some distance inland in Galway. That is of course the worst of winter hazards for driving, so I hope it isn't going to materialize.

Can see the odds are something like this on the snow --

heavier outcomes (5-10 cm local 15) about 20% chance

general 2-5 cm in snow zones, local 10 has about 50% chance

general trace to 2 cm with local 5 has about 20% chance

almost complete non-event has about 10% chance

_ but those odds could change before the event starts. Not all indicators are negative which is why one or two models have a bit more snow than others.

Which forum regular will report the most snow at their home location? I think the leading candidates might be robertkk, mountainyman, lolie in cavan, and whoever lives on the east side of the Wicklow mountains. Danno in with a shout if the snow is a bit heavier than some expect (heavier it turns out, the better lowland areas will be doing). This speculation applies to round one only, round two could go to Tyrone posters -- I don't know if we have any regular posters in Monaghan.

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If snow does turn out to be relatively light then freezing rain could show up in a few parts of the inland south and southeast, also some distance inland in Galway. That is of course the worst of winter hazards for driving, so I hope it isn't going to materialize.

Can see the odds are something like this on the snow --

heavier outcomes (5-10 cm local 15) about 20% chance

general 2-5 cm in snow zones, local 10 has about 50% chance

general trace to 2 cm with local 5 has about 20% chance

almost complete non-event has about 10% chance

_ but those odds could change before the event starts. Not all indicators are negative which is why one or two models have a bit more snow than others.

Which forum regular will report the most snow at their home location? I think the leading candidates might be robertkk, mountainyman, lolie in cavan, and whoever lives on the east side of the Wicklow mountains. Danno in with a shout if the snow is a bit heavier than some expect (heavier it turns out, the better lowland areas will be doing). This speculation applies to round one only, round two could go to Tyrone posters -- I don't know if we have any regular posters in Monaghan.

AUNTY lives on the east side of the wicklow mtns
Place called Arklow


(Dp's sub minus 6c today with a strong wind off the Sea here,..doesn't happen often)

Snowbie

Weather forecast done for tomorrow if anyone is interested. I reckon this has upgraded over previous runs. South midlands at risk of highest totals. Fridays event into Saturday morning, Ulster and N Leinster most at risk for now.

https://youtu.be/-FO7MRsCxpE

JanuarySnowstor

I don't think there is any chance of freezing rain MT.
We havent seen a decent frost in over a week as it's been dull and cloudy. The ground is actually milder than average.

I see Met Eireann have kept the warnings at yellow!!
Will it prove to be case

Gonzo

Not expecting much myself here in south Meath, all models are showing between nothing and trace amounts of snow for this area by tomorrow night.



Hirlam and Arpege fails to get any precipitation in this part of Meath and indeed Dublin before Friday.

GFS shows trace amount getting here before tomorrow night.

For Friday/Saturday
Icon is showing a narrow channel of a snow hollow between north Dublin, crossing over south-east Meath and down into Offaly.



Based on the Icon i'll be lucky to see more than 1 or 2cm by Saturday morning.

GFS is similar, a snow hollow over south Meath and north Kildare, barely anything on current output. less than 1cm.



Arpege is a bit better for Saturday morning, but still a snow hollow, maybe 1 to 3cm.



WRF same story, very little other than misty snizzle for this area on Friday night into Saturday morning.



I wouldn't be surprised if this gets downgraded more tomorrow as this is continuing to get downgraded on each run.

barney 20v

AuntySnow wrote: »

AUNTY lives on the east side of the wicklow mtns
Place called Arklow


(Dp's sub minus 6c today with a strong wind off the Sea here,..doesn't happen often)

I reckon we're in with a decent shout here on the Blackstairs Mountain.
35 km inland, 3.5 km from the mountain itself and at 150 m asl.

We're one of the best places on the east coast historically for snow events (after the wicklow mountains)

Dispite all the variences in models and even shorterm forecasts we've stayed consistently at risk from this front moving in tomorrow.

My 12 year old has her toboggan ready to go!

Cw85

Dewpoint of -6 at my station in Carlow Town. Definitely the coldest night so far. Should get some decent snow in this part of the country tomorrow

JanuarySnowstor

Anyone have the current dew points?

DellyBelly

colmwexford wrote: »

Could inland Wexford get something similar?

Maybe but I think you might be fortunate and miss out on anything too bad.

DellyBelly

DellyBelly wrote: »

Maybe but I think you might be fortunate and miss out on anything too bad.

It’s the cold rain guy! Huzzah.

Tyrone212

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Anyone have the current dew points?

https://meteologix.com/ie/observations/ireland/dewpoint/20210210-2100z.html

JanuarySnowstor

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Anyone have the current dew points?

My station right now in Arklow

Snowbie

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Anyone have the current dew points?

-3.4C Dp

SleetAndSnow

Anything currently falling in Cork City is currently very wet and sleety. Are we already in a warmer airmass? Not boding well for tomorrow at all

Gaoth Laidir

Cork's TAF has just been amended at 9 pm to account for the snow falling there now. Forecast to fall up to midnight. Still no difference to tomorrow's precipitation; light rain from 7 am, with some periods of sleet mixed in from 10 am.

TAF AMD EICK 102100Z 1021/1118 09015KT 9999 FEW020 BKN030
TEMPO 1021/1024 4000 -SHSN BKN012
BECMG 1022/1024 11020G30KT
BECMG 1107/1109 12025G40KT 4000 -RA BKN008
TEMPO 1110/1118 2500 -RASN BKN003=

Recent METARs

METAR EICK 102100Z 12017G29KT 8000 -SHGS BKN016 BKN030 01/M02 Q1017 NOSIG=
METAR EICK 102030Z 11018KT 8000 -SHSN BKN016 BKN030 01/M02 Q1017 NOSIG=

JanuarySnowstor

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Anything currently falling in Cork City is currently very wet and sleety. Are we already in a warmer airmass? Not boding well for tomorrow at all

Bit odd alright but much heavier ppn should away the balance tomorrow

Squidvicious

Looking at some of the current temperatures on the NRA website, I have to say that I am becoming more sceptical about snow anywhere near the South Coast, though I know that the models are showing snow everywhere at least for a while. Generally speaking, temperatures are in the range if 1 to 2 Celsius currently. Given the liklihood of cloudy conditions overnight, it's hard to see temperatures falling much tonight. Winds will pick up considerably so we can't even rely on evaporative cooling to reduce temperatures once the precipitation arrives. I sincerely hope that I'm wrong but I fear that this may be more of an inland affair.

SleetAndSnow

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Bit odd alright but much heavier ppn should away the balance tomorrow

Well it just suddenly went from nearly rain to snow in the the click of a finger and now everythings slowly going white. Very strange.

EDIT: Its going back and forth between the two. Water droplets are pouring down the car one minute and then they are white and the road is white, and then its back to clear as it returns to wet...

Can confirm it is sleeting now

Donegal Ken

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I don't think there is any chance of freezing rain MT.
We havent seen a decent frost in over a week as it's been dull and cloudy. The ground is actually milder than average.

I see Met Eireann have kept the warnings at yellow!!
Will it prove to be case

The west and northwest has seen frost even icicles forming on a beach in Donegal https://twitter.com/DonegalWeatherC/status/1359540213958254593

redsteveireland

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I don't think there is any chance of freezing rain MT.
We havent seen a decent frost in over a week as it's been dull and cloudy. The ground is actually milder than average.

I see Met Eireann have kept the warnings at yellow!!
Will it prove to be case

The garden has gone nice and crispy here in Galway this evening, I have seen a hard frost cleared over night from approaching Atlantic systems in the past, we shall have to wait and see how this transpires.
WFH tomorrow so will be hard to stay focused on work with this unfolding outside the window.

bazlers

Gonzo i think they are over doing the snow hollow to be honest. Looking at Snowbie latest forecast intensity wise it and advancement of front might work in your favour too. Still all to play for.
There is alot of poster here who have invested many many hours in pursuit of snow on this thread. I sincerely hope they get their just rewards.
Unfortunately nature doesnt work that way and can be very cruel:(

Rebelbrowser

AuntySnow wrote: »

AUNTY lives on the east side of the wicklow mtns
Place called Arklow


(Dp's sub minus 6c today with a strong wind off the Sea here,..doesn't happen often)

In fairness Aunty Snow is a new poster with only 500 odd posts who only joined a month or so ago so MT probably doesn't know of him......;)

Donegal Ken

Donegal Ken wrote: »

The west and northwest has seen frost even icicles forming on a beach in Donegal https://twitter.com/DonegalWeatherC/status/1359540213958254593

Beautiful pic
We've had ice anywhere sheltered all day too in sth wicklow ,never thawed
I notice a lot of the Davis stations up your way were below freezing again well before dark

Gaoth Laidir

The 18Z ICON barely has any snow making it past a line from Mullingar to Dublin tomorrow night. It has more of a focus on Saturday now. It also has a mixed bag of almost all weather types possible; rain, snow, freezing rain (red) and even thunderstorms (pink)!

Kermit.de.frog

GFS better precipitation forecast for tomorrow night than latest ICON. This is coming down to real time observations, nowcast.

Rebelbrowser

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

GFS better precipitation forecast for tomorrow night than latest ICON. This is coming down to real time observations, nowcast.

We will keep them coming from under our umbrellas down here from about 9am I suspect....

mickger844posts

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

GFS giving snowfall in the east all day Saturday.

Also better precipitation forecast for tomorrow night than latest ICON. This is coming down to real time observations, nowcast.

Models at this range are only a guide. Its a nowcast for sure. First port of call for me when i wake up tomorrow is check the radar. Best of luck to everyone