Are we there yet? Your second Travel Megathread (threadbans in OP}

TobyHolmes

colmtheperson wrote: »

A highly transmisable virus that causes a deadly disease that our health service is nowhere near capable of dealing with - if he wasn't worried and recommending extreme advice I'd be extremely worried

i agree his advice is his advice and really his advise is really for the government to enable it to make decisions with a nuanced approach taking into consideration all of society - but again its all about presentation. and they are presenting it in such a doom and gloom kind of way - they may as well have a sign on the street that says the end is nigh.


people are abiding by restrictions but they would feel better about it if things were presented to them so they dont feel like its all so fruitless. i think that is what our fellow poster means when they are saying they feel like an irish son who cant do anything right.



present it in a better manner. stop allowing the media to scaremonger on your behalf and let us all feel like we have a future and there is a light at the end of the tunnel.


thats not what is happening right now.

Northernlily

TheDriver wrote: »

It's getting scarily close to pushing people to rebellion.
Gemma and John rallying the troops could get a lot more behind them on this occasion.
It feels like over reaching by Gardai and Govt.
Look at the French rebellion or animal farm, there's a time the people react back.
Getting sick of the "it's a pandemic" is a good enough reason to not question anything

That group of followers they have got significantly bigger with each phase of this thing. There is a lot more with them now than there was of the raving lunatics protesting outside Google that's for sure.

yoshimitsu

yoshimitsu wrote: »

Those above are all good reasons... to convince a judge, to obtain a court order, to legally request that information. This is what I said:



"So if the dental clinic releases that information without a court order that specifies how that data will be used, who will see it and how/where/how long it will be stored for, they would get into deep poo poo in Spain."

I didnt say that Guardai cannot obtain that info, simply that they cant obtain without providing proper justification that it is for one of the reasons detailed above.


Do you think officer Patty O'Brien can call up any clinic in Spain (or anywhere else) and just say "hand over your clients'/prospective clients' data, by the powers vested in me under article 23 of GDPR!!"? :D:D You need a court order; and you need to put a bit more tobacco in whatever it is that you're smoking



Do you think Patty O'Brien can call up any establishment asking for CCTV footage without any form of justification, just a phone call saying he's law enforcement? :D:D


How about officer Patty O'Brien unilaterally deciding he wants the registration details, pseudonyms, IP addresses of anybody that posts to the "Are we there yet? Your second Travel Megathread", because he personally suspects it may lead to "preventing, detecting, investigating or prosecuting criminal offences".

Do you think all that is required is a phone call to Boards.ie repeating Niner's comment "GDPR specifically doesnt apply for law enforcement purposes [...] plain and simple! Hand over the data at once!" :D:D You guys watch way too much bad TV



Back to why this is relevant to the travel thread: This whole story of Roberta Beccaris, office manager of a dental clinic in Tenerife, volunteering to hand over data belonging to clients/prospective clients to the Gardai is a witch hunt. Guardai may be able to obtain a court order for that establishment but try replicating it for the 1000s of clinics (dental or otherwise) in 1000s of holiday destinations across Spain... again not impossible but v v unlikely.

A better use of all that human effort would be to set up a functioning domestic contact tracing system which is line 1, page 1, chapter 1 of the "how to deal with a pandemic" playbook (a book written by China, S. Korea, Japan who have dealt with epidemics before) and instead, 12 months into it, we still haven't been able to put one together.



"...but it's the people going to Tenerife/Lanzarote jeopardizing our lives and our freedoms!! Look over there people, don't look over here!!"

The foolishness is mind blowing. Gardai obtain data almost daily based on a written request which does not require a warrant or court order because of exactly what I stated.

All it requires, if you bothered your ass to investigate the matter even as far as the data protection commissioners own website, is for the data controller to be satisfied that the request is genuine and for law enforcement purposes. In practice, it usually requires a written request stating that the request is made within the terms of section 41,b.

A warrant is not needed. Again, do you think Gardai obtain warrants for every single bit if cctv they collect?

So best if you stop with the bar room lawyer, it's wrong.

fran38

fran38 wrote: »

So as it stands, the Gardai can fine someone 500e just for breaking the 5k limit, raising to 2000e if someone decides to go ahead and get on the plane. They could face a criminal charge on their return. Is this in force already ? Or is it in waiting once the mandatory quarantine hotels are set up?

No, that's not how it stands. In fact, it's totally wrong.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Which would be turned over - the Charter of Fundamental Rights and the European Convention on Human Rights have primacy over national laws, not to mention the fundamental freedom of movement.

It is absolutely bonkers.

Which part do you believe is being breached? Details now, not a general comment

Del Griffith

TheDriver wrote: »

It's getting scarily close to pushing people to rebellion.
Gemma and John rallying the troops could get a lot more behind them on this occasion.
It feels like over reaching by Gardai and Govt.
Look at the French rebellion or animal farm, there's a time the people react back.
Getting sick of the "it's a pandemic" is a good enough reason to not question anything

I'd love someone, anyone, competent to take an strong alternative stand to the plan of never ending lockdowns and restrictions. I'd be out there behind them, first in line.

Just not crazy Gemma.

faceman

TobyHolmes wrote: »

happy with lockdown...... people are ABIDING by it - that doesnt equate to happiness

Given the stubbornness with the daily figures I’m not sure how many are abiding by it

Santan

Imagine if I told you last January that this time next year you could face prison for going on a holiday, and some people think this is ok. I wonder is anything off limits for these people, what restrictions or penalties would be too much.

Happydays2020

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

No, that's not how it stands. In fact, it's totally wrong.



Which part do you believe is being breached? Details now, not a general comment

You see the post in isolation - that one was in respect to penal provisions for breach of 5km limits. Proportionality is an important aspect in EU law.

What I also said yesterday was that the fines are probably ok now (although differences in normal 5km and airport 5km may be a problem) but the fines for travelling to the airport will not hold up if inter-county travel is allowed in Ireland.

As a general point, that law is on shaky ground on any level. A poor case and a good challenge in front of a sympathetic judge and cases will be thrown out - and it would be a challenge in the Court of Appeal.

Happydays2020

faceman wrote: »

Given the stubbornness with the daily figures I’m not sure how many are abiding by it

The cases are still on a downward trajectory. 15 - 20% week on week. A degree of the stubbornness is due to the resumption of testing of close contacts.

I posted elsewhere but here are the last six Sunday’s.....

January 10th - 4842
January 17th - 3231
January 24th - 1910
January 31st - 1414
February 7th - 1024
February 14th - 788

faceman

Happydays2020 wrote: »

The cases are still on a downward trajectory. 15 - 20% week on week. A degree of the stubbornness is due to the resumption of testing of close contacts.

I posted elsewhere but here are the last six Sunday’s.....

January 10th - 4842
January 17th - 3231
January 24th - 1910
January 31st - 1414
February 7th - 1024
February 14th - 788

Given the strictness of level 5 that’s not an impressive drop. The rate of progress is slowing down

SusanC10

Thoughts on being able to realistically travel abroad (EU) with kids for a Holiday in Summer 2022 ?
I have given up on 2021.

TheDriver

SusanC10 wrote: »

Thoughts on being able to realistically travel abroad (EU) with kids for a Holiday in Summer 2022 ?
I have given up on 2021.

Ah will you stop

RobitTV

UK: 'Clear sense of direction' on summer holidays promised next week

The foreign secretary says that Boris Johnson will give people more information on whether they'll be allowed to take trips at home or abroad, when he makes his big announcement on Monday.

"The prime minister will set out the roadmap on 22 February, I think that will give people a clear indication," Mr Raab told LBC.

"We appreciate right now lots of people want to book that time away with their loved ones, with their families. I think it’s difficult to do it right now because of the lack of certainty.

"We'll get a clearer sense of direction when the PM stands up and gives it on Monday."

Sky Updates

josip

Happydays2020 wrote: »

The cases are still on a downward trajectory. 15 - 20% week on week. A degree of the stubbornness is due to the resumption of testing of close contacts.

I posted elsewhere but here are the last six Sunday’s.....

January 10th - 4842
January 17th - 3231
January 24th - 1910
January 31st - 1414
February 7th - 1024
February 14th - 788

You've taken point figures for the above list, if you take 7 day rolling averages, it smooths out the anomalies.

(Sorry, I don't know how to do a boards table/chart, I'm stuck with Excel and imgur)
Daily numbers are from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/ireland?country=~IRL

Until 4 days ago the week on week decrease was going well, >25%.
However that changed fairly dramatically and has since been consistently under 15% and decreasing.




Yesterday's 4.91% figure shouldn't be taken too seriously yet; the 543 cases from the 9th has a big impact, even on the averaged numbers. But I think it's safe to say that the weekly change is now down to 10% and it's trend is decreasing, not static.

What this means for all of us is fairly significant.
The target they have set us before they ease their restrictions are 100 cases per day.
If the week on week reduction is 20%, then that target would be achieved by the 18th of April.

Locked up for another 2 months would be pretty horrendous, but they probably see it as not unachievable.

(blue values are historical calculated data, orange values are projections based on a 20% weekly decrease)


If however the weekly decrease remains at 10%, Relaxation Day gets delayed to late June.



They realise that they will completely 'lose the dressing room' if they try to keep us restricted until then.
But the alternative may not be palatable for them; they'd have to change their relaxation criteria.
Their job involves numbers and projections and trends and models.
They've known this for the past few days and that's why their tone during the briefings has changed.

For them, the next couple of weeks, are crucial.

TobyHolmes

RobitTV wrote: »

UK: 'Clear sense of direction' on summer holidays promised next week

The foreign secretary says that Boris Johnson will give people more information on whether they'll be allowed to take trips at home or abroad, when he makes his big announcement on Monday.

"The prime minister will set out the roadmap on 22 February, I think that will give people a clear indication," Mr Raab told LBC.

"We appreciate right now lots of people want to book that time away with their loved ones, with their families. I think it’s difficult to do it right now because of the lack of certainty.

"We'll get a clearer sense of direction when the PM stands up and gives it on Monday."

Sky Updates

wouldnt that be nice if our government could give us a sense of direction with this whole thing - instead of issuing statements through the media to the effect of dont expect to have staycations in 6 months. its a JOKE

faceman

faceman wrote: »

Given the strictness of level 5 that’s not an impressive drop. The rate of progress is slowing down

But sure everyone is ignoring level 5!!
That's why

RobitTV

I wouldn't be worried when the government says 'It's unlikely travel will happen this summer' - that only means families who will be unable to afford the PCR tests. Couples or single people will most likely be able to travel without the huge expense. It would be way too expensive this year for a family of four. Some families might pay though.

The reality is by the summer the EU will be reopening for tourism and business. It does not matter what NPHET or the Irish government think about that. They aren't of any concern in Europe.

Holohan can spend the whole summer repeating himself like a robot. It won't make a difference.

Happydays2020

josip wrote: »

You've taken point figures for the above list, if you take 7 day rolling averages, it smooths out the anomalies.

(Sorry, I don't know how to do a boards table/chart, I'm stuck with Excel and imgur)
Daily numbers are from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/ireland?country=~IRL

Until 4 days ago the week on week decrease was going well, >25%.
However that changed fairly dramatically and has since been consistently under 15% and decreasing.




Yesterday's 4.91% figure shouldn't be taken too seriously yet; the 543 cases from the 9th has a big impact, even on the averaged numbers. But I think it's safe to say that the weekly change is now down to 10% and it's trend is decreasing, not static.

What this means for all of us is fairly significant.
The target they have set us before they ease their restrictions are 100 cases per day.
If the week on week reduction is 20%, then that target would be achieved by the 18th of April.

Locked up for another 2 months would be pretty horrendous, but they probably see it as not unachievable.

(blue values are historical calculated data, orange values are projections based on a 20% weekly decrease)


If however the weekly decrease remains at 10%, Relaxation Day gets delayed to late June.



They realise that they will completely 'lose the dressing room' if they try to keep us restricted until then.
But the alternative may not be palatable for them; they'd have to change their relaxation criteria and they seem fairly attached to that.

Their job involves numbers and projections and trends and models.

They've known this for the past few days and that's why their tone has changed.

For them, the next couple of weeks, are crucial.

Fair point on using ‘point’ figures but I did not overstate the decrease either.

Thanks - that is excellent data.

TobyHolmes

bubblypop wrote: »

But sure everyone is ignoring level 5!!
That's why

really? EVERYONE is ignoring it?

DessieJames

RobitTV wrote: »

I wouldn't be worried when the government says 'It's unlikely travel will happen this summer' - that only means families who will be unable to afford the PCR tests. Couples or single people will most likely be able to travel without the huge expense. It would be way too expensive this year for a family of four. Some families might pay though.

The reality is by the summer the EU will be reopening for tourism and business. It does not matter what NPHET or the Irish government think about that. They aren't of any concern in Europe.

Holohan can spend the whole summer repeating himself like a robot. It won't make a difference.

he does that anyway, like a broken record he is.

100% going abroad this summer, went away last year without any isuses and will do the same this year, only this time we'll probably have to go and back via Belfast,leave the scaremongering and doom merchants at home and get away from it all.

TobyHolmes

TobyHolmes wrote: »

really? EVERYONE is ignoring it?

Huge amount of people then.
Better?

TheDriver

DessieJames wrote: »

he does that anyway, like a broken record he is.

100% going abroad this summer, went away last year without any isuses and will do the same this year, only this time we'll probably have to go and back via Belfast,leave the scaremongering and doom merchants at home and get away from it all.

If holohan holds that line, it'll be a very bumper year for Derry and Belfast airports.
NI will be totally aligning themselves with UK, not us.
I also wonder how they'll police all our airports? Can't see local Kerry cops dishing out fines at Farranfore to people they probably know.

Red Silurian

TobyHolmes wrote: »

i agree his advice is his advice and really his advise is really for the government to enable it to make decisions with a nuanced approach taking into consideration all of society - but again its all about presentation. and they are presenting it in such a doom and gloom kind of way - they may as well have a sign on the street that says the end is nigh.


people are abiding by restrictions but they would feel better about it if things were presented to them so they dont feel like its all so fruitless. i think that is what our fellow poster means when they are saying they feel like an irish son who cant do anything right.



present it in a better manner. stop allowing the media to scaremonger on your behalf and let us all feel like we have a future and there is a light at the end of the tunnel.


thats not what is happening right now.

So you're saying he's correct but he needs to present his findings in a more fluffy way? I'd like that myself but almost 4,000 people have died of the same disease in the last 11 months and over 500 people a day still succumb to the disease so I'm not sure how he can present that in a better manner

If people were abiding by the restrictions then we would have had 0 cases for the last 9 months, the fact of the matter is that yesterday 744 new cases were announced, that's 744 people who were within 2m of somebody else

Red Silurian

TobyHolmes wrote: »

wouldnt that be nice if our government could give us a sense of direction with this whole thing - instead of issuing statements through the media to the effect of dont expect to have staycations in 6 months. its a JOKE

This is the same govt who ignore NPHET advice, who advise against international travel but create a green list, create a 5 level 'living with covid' plan then instead of following it they proceed to use levels 3+, 4+, 3- and most recently 5+

I think it's fair to say communication isn't their strong point

TobyHolmes

colmtheperson wrote: »

This is the same govt who ignore NPHET advice, who advise against international travel but create a green list, create a 5 level 'living with covid' plan then instead of following it they proceed to use levels 3+, 4+, 3- and most recently 5+

I think it's fair to say communication isn't their strong point

yeah - i wonder do they pat themselves on the back and say good job - or is it a bit like a duck - calm on the service and frantically peddling under the water.

gozunda

DessieJames wrote: »

he does that anyway, like a broken record he is.

100% going abroad this summer, went away last year without any isuses and will do the same this year, only this time we'll probably have to go and back via Belfast,leave the scaremongering and doom merchants at home and get away from it all.

Ye might have fun and games trying that tbf.

Spain and a host of other countries look like introducing a vaccine requirement for those arriving for holidays

And if you're planning on flying out of Belfast - a lot of countries have restrictions on travel from the UK due to the risk of new covid strains . Will that change? Who knows.


https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/spain-plans-to-establish-vaccination-certificate-to-recover-tourism-sector/

TobyHolmes

colmtheperson wrote: »

So you're saying he's correct but he needs to present his findings in a more fluffy way? I'd like that myself but almost 4,000 people have died of the same disease in the last 11 months and over 500 people a day still succumb to the disease so I'm not sure how he can present that in a better manner

If people were abiding by the restrictions then we would have had 0 cases for the last 9 months, the fact of the matter is that yesterday 744 new cases were announced, that's 744 people who were within 2m of somebody else

no im saying 1. its his advice 2. the govt take that advice and apply it in a nuanced way. 3. That govt advice is then communicated to the public in a way that is not bleak, dark, gloomy and a throwback to the days of the old catholic ireland in that we are all sinners and we have sinned and we need to obey. there is a way to present it.

Red Silurian

TobyHolmes wrote: »

yeah - i wonder do they pat themselves on the back and say good job - or is it a bit like a duck - calm on the service and frantically peddling under the water.

I like the link you made between ducks and our govt, they're about as useful as each other in our dáil haha

On the point of communication though, Jacinda Ardern has a bachelor of communication studies in politics and public relations, makes you wonder doesn't it?

TheDriver

gozunda wrote: »

Ye might have fun and games trying that tbf.

Spain and a host of other countries look like introducing a vaccine requirement for those arriving for holidays

And if you're planning on flying out of Belfast - a lot of countries have restrictions on travel from the UK due to the risk of new covid strains . Will that change? Who knows.


https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/spain-plans-to-establish-vaccination-certificate-to-recover-tourism-sector/

It will when Spain replies mostly on German and British tourists for their cash.

I don't see how vaccine passports will work, they'll be easily forged etc. And what about kids?

Red Silurian

TheDriver wrote: »

It will when Spain replies mostly on German and British tourists for their cash.

I don't see how vaccine passports will work, they'll be easily forged etc. And what about kids?

I would think that if the Spanish vaccinate their own people then vaccine passports wouldn't matter too much, same for the UK and Ireland, I think if the UK meet their vaccination targets you could consider a holiday in Cornwall? You can get some very nice weather there in August