COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Strazdas

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

If they'd gone 55+ (like France), that would bring in another 300,000 people for AZ. Surprised they've gone to 60

On the other hand, it's almost a stroke of luck that only about 20% of Irish people are getting AZ - makes it much easier to manage.

Turtwig

Strazdas wrote: »

As far as I know, no person who has received an AZ vaccine has developed blood clots after the second dose - therefore getting the follow up AZ dose 12 weeks later should not be an issue, no matter what their age.

Problem is very few have gotten a second dose. Not enough to make a like for like comparison with the first dose. It'd be a while yet before risk for second dose is quantified.

stephenjmcd

Strazdas wrote: »

Not necessarily - their attitude is that the vaccines are all in and around the same standard in terms of effectiveness, so they can give the over 60s any vaccine and whatever is available (as the first dose).

Would be surprised now if an operational decision wasn't taken to reduce the use of Pfizer to ensure the supply is there to move to the 50-59 age group in the next few weeks.

Moderna don't deliver in big numbers & J&J aren't going to deliver in big numbers for a while yet

Deeper Blue

What about people under 60 that have already gotten one dose of AZ?

This is also going to cause an enormous headache in that the 60-69 group likely won't have their second dose until August/September.

Meanwhile basically every other adult age group will in theory (if supplies hold up) be covered by two doses or single dose J & J before them...

Strazdas

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Highly unlikely to be honest.

We're down to the age 70 bracket now so there's only 60-69 to be called forward that could now get AZ. It's not going to take months to get them done

But there must be many hundreds of thousands of people in Ireland in that bracket - most people are not dead by the age of 70.

Also, there appears to be no issue with giving AZ as a second dose (so all of those hundreds of thousands will require their second dose).

Miike

Deeper Blue wrote: »

What about people under 60 that have already gotten one dose of AZ?

No one knows at the moment. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if when the announcement is officially made that they don't even reference this specific issue.

funnydoggy

How far could this set us back?

Cork2021

How much slower will it be now?
Looking at in now only positive I can see is that the younger generation will he fully vaccinated faster, the generation under 45 which is driving case numbers! But have we enough??

brendanwalsh

At this stage AstraZeneca is absolutely fcking worthless.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

This is also going to cause an enormous headache in that the 60-69 group likely won't have their second dose until August/September.

Meanwhile basically every other adult age group will in theory (if supplies hold up) be covered by two doses or single dose J & J before them...

I very much doubt they'd leave the 60-69 group waiting just so they could use up all AZ doses. We know we'll have a surplus of vaccines at the end of this, and it's likely AZ will make up the majority of those. They'll be donated to Covax.

Strazdas

funnydoggy wrote: »

How far could this set us back?

Not that much I would think. The main people disrupted will be under 60s with underlying conditions, but it shouldn't take 'too' long to divert vaccine supplies in the various different directions.

GLaDOS

Is the NIACs recommendation likely to be implemented as is, or is there room for leeway?

Over 60s seems a bit over-cautious for me.

Turtwig

Miike wrote: »

No one knows at the moment. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if when the announcement is officially made that they don't even reference this specific issue.

They should at least offer you the choice of getting your next dose as AZ. Mix and match could throw up another very rare reaction for all we know and where would that leave the programme?

KrustyUCC

We were due 813,000 AZ on Q2

Now they can only be used in 60-69 year olds

Disaster when reopening economy is linked to vaccination program

ACitizenErased

Strazdas wrote: »

Not that much I would think. The main people disrupted will be under 60s with underlying conditions, but it shouldn't take 'too' long to divert vaccine supplies in the various different directions.

Where exactly is it supposed to go when the over 60s are done? I don't understand why you're downplaying this so much

brendanwalsh

Anyone who got their first Az shot would rightly refuse the second shot at this point too

ACitizenErased

brendanwalsh wrote: »

Anyone who got their first Az shot would rightly refuse the second shot at this point too

why?

Turtwig

We need the official statement. I'd be stunned if cohort 4 and 7 are restricted from AZ. It may be RTÉ getting the lines crossed.

salmocab

Deeper Blue wrote: »

What about people under 60 that have already gotten one dose of AZ?

They have to send it back.

Miike

Turtwig wrote: »

They should at least offer you the choice of getting your next dose as AZ. Mix and match could throw up another very rare reaction for all we know and where would that leave the programme?

Mix and match hasn't been studied at all. We have zero trial data using mRNA vaccines as a prime booster and J&J is currently under review for clotting events. If it's going to be J&J just give me my second AZ dose.

I either want the option of having my second dose or else having a full schedule of Pfizer or Moderna (not a single dose prime booster). I'm willing to perish on that rock too. I work in a high risk clinical environment. I want assurances that I'm being offered the opportunity to mount a robust immune response based on evidence and not whim.

Klonker

Strazdas wrote: »

Not necessarily - their attitude is that the vaccines are all in and around the same standard in terms of effectiveness, so they can give the over 60s any vaccine and whatever is available (as the first dose).

But if they can't use Astra for the under 60s and the give the over 60s whatever is available first then we will end up with a load of unused Astra vaccines and our schedules will be pushed out at least a few weeks. If NIAC said under 50s we probably wouldn't have this issue.

I'd love to know how they came to this decision. Is it that much more prevalent in people in 50s rather than 60s?

Russman

GLaDOS wrote: »

Is the NIACs recommendation likely to be implemented as is, or is there room for leeway?

Over 60s seems a bit over-cautious for me.

I think the CMO can override or at least amend it, but going against expert advice isn't something to be taken lightly if its purely in the interests of expediency.

Really surprised they went with 60s, I was expecting 50s or maybe even 40s.

ShadowTech

This is too much! In the last week I've lost the ability to travel to see my family abroad thanks to the imposition of MHQ and I have no idea if/when this will change and now the advice for AZ is so conservative it will almost certainly slow down the vaccination program again. Vaccines are the only hope we've been offered for a return to normality and now they want to limit one of the handful that we have in any substantial quantities to a cohort of people who have largely already been vaccinated!!

How about this? Those of us who are under 60 and would happily trade 10 years of our lives to be able to sit in a theatre again, have a pint with friends, go to a shop without a mask, and travel abroad can sign a waiver and still get AZ so that all of us can get out of this nightmare as soon as possible. I will happily risk the 0.001% chance of a severe side-effect instead of the 100% chance of continuing to exist the way we've been doing for the last year! :mad:

Rebelbrowser

Turtwig wrote: »

They should at least offer you the choice of getting your next dose as AZ. Mix and match could throw up another very rare reaction for all we know and where would that leave the programme?

Rte.ie report is based on a NIAC meeting this morning but they say a further meeting is ongoing to sign off. But obviously that second meeting may not go as rte suggested - seems to me that rte.ie could yet have jumped the gun here.

Strazdas

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Where exactly is it supposed to go when the over 60s are done? I don't understand why you're downplaying this so much

Don't forget everyone has to be vaccinated twice. Let's say they do 350k people : that's immediately 700k AZ doses taken care of.

KrustyUCC

KrustyUCC wrote: »

We were due 813,000 AZ on Q2

Now they can only be used in 60-69 year olds

Disaster when reopening economy is linked to vaccination program

300k 60-69 year old - 600k doses
233k already administered as first doses - bulk of these have not received 2nd dose - that's most of the 813k used up.

And its likely that guidance will be refined at some stage as more is understood about the potential adverse effects and the subsets of the population potentially impacted

RavenBea17b

Sanjuro wrote: »

My mam's friend has a GP who has never computerised. Does everything with paper and pencil. Real old school type. Unsurprisingly, it's been absolute chaos trying to get his patients vaccinated. Said friend is 75. Not a sign of getting even the first dose so far.

How on earth in this day and age, is the GP practice not computerised. Surely when hospital tests, medication is ordered etc. That is shocking!!

ACitizenErased

Strazdas wrote: »

Don't forget everyone has to be vaccinated twice. Let's say they do 350k people : that's immediately 700k AZ doses taken care of.

What about after that?

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Where exactly is it supposed to go when the over 60s are done? I don't understand why you're downplaying this so much

Exactly this, I'd love to know where people think the supplies are supposed to go.

Any dose 1 now for anyone over 60 should be primarily AZ, if not it's a waste of supply. If it's going to be Pfizer, Moderna or J&J for u60 only then leave them for the u60 now.

It was Pfizer or Moderna only for over 70 due to the initial AZ advice, now pivot it around.

None of this is ideal and either way it delays things somewhere along the line.

Shocked that they went with 60 tbh, expected somewhere in the middle between some other EU countries and the UK, thought maybe 40 or so

Strazdas

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What about after that?

Once we run out of people to vaccinate with AZ, then we officially have a surplus of it. But that surely will not happen any time before summer. Around 3m adults have not received a vaccine of any description yet.

Sofa King Great

[Deleted User] wrote: »

300k 60-69 year old - 600k doses
233k already administered as first doses - bulk of these have not received 2nd dose - that's most of the 813k used up.

And its likely that guidance will be refined at some stage as more is understood about the potential adverse effects and the subsets of the population potentially impacted

That would potentially mean some over 60s waiting until June to get their first AZ vaccine and second in September.

KrustyUCC

Deleted User wrote: »

300k 60-69 year old - 600k doses
233k already administered as first doses - bulk of these have not received 2nd dose - that's most of the 813k used up.

And its likely that guidance will be refined at some stage as more is understood about the potential adverse effects and the subsets of the population potentially impacted

Good luck selling AZ again to other ages after this

There was already a good portion of people wary of taking it

This new advice from NIAC will amplify concerns

Klonker

Deleted User wrote: »

300k 60-69 year old - 600k doses
233k already administered as first doses - bulk of these have not received 2nd dose - that's most of the 813k used up.

And its likely that guidance will be refined at some stage as more is understood about the potential adverse effects and the subsets of the population potentially impacted

So you're saying we should not give any 60-69 any other vaccines? This would mean a lot of people under 60 will be vaccinated before this group as the 60-69 group will be waiting on the Astra supply.

I'm not disagreeing but this is the tough decision now that government or however will have to make. Either what I outlined above or give out doses as they come in, meaning we'll have a load of Astra left over pushing our overall timeline out.

ACitizenErased

This could be Fergal Bowers jumping the gun, wouldn't be the first time he has done it. Hope he's wrong.

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

This could be Fergal Bowers jumping the gun, wouldn't be the first time he has done it. Hope he's wrong.

It'll probably be the recommendation, up to the CMO and the Dept of Health now (including the minister) . I'd be surprised if they went against them

funnydoggy

I think I broke my fingers crossing them so quickly :pac:

SusanC10

ACitizenErased wrote: »

This could be Fergal Bowers jumping the gun, wouldn't be the first time he has done it. Hope he's wrong.

Why are you thinking that RTE jumped the gun ?

funnydoggy

SusanC10 wrote: »

Why are you thinking that RTE jumped the gun ?

Fergal Bowers usually does, to be fair

Turtwig

SusanC10 wrote: »

Why are you thinking that RTE jumped the gun ?

No official statement from NIAC. That's jumping the gun regardless of what the statement when released entails.

SusanC10

funnydoggy wrote: »

Fergal Bowers usually does, to be fair

Oh OK. I got an RTE alert on my phone.

Sofa King Great

ACitizenErased wrote: »

This could be Fergal Bowers jumping the gun, wouldn't be the first time he has done it. Hope he's wrong.

Its fairly reckless if that is the case as it will have a real impact on vaccine take up

hmmm

I'd take AZ in a heartbeat if it meant I could get a vaccine sooner.

I know that Captain Hindsights will be all over these decisions in time and NIAC will be in the firing line, but we are in a pandemic. We can't afford to have unused vaccines, even if they have rare side-effects. The Government need to give them some cover here if they need it.

ddarcy

Turtwig wrote: »

We need the official statement. I'd be stunned if cohort 4 and 7 are restricted from AZ. It may be RTÉ getting the lines crossed.

Disagree. If the healthy population is not fit to take it, neither is the vulnerable. A massive lawsuit(s) is lurking if they do. You can’t say a vulnerable group more prone to serious adverse events from the vaccine are grand whereas the normal healthy population are not. If they go this route Solicitors / Barristers will be creaming themselves.

eoinbn

Deleted User wrote: »

300k 60-69 year old - 600k doses
233k already administered as first doses - bulk of these have not received 2nd dose - that's most of the 813k used up.

And its likely that guidance will be refined at some stage as more is understood about the potential adverse effects and the subsets of the population potentially impacted

It is very likely that the people that have gotten the first dose will get something else for the second - unless they are over 60.
You are assuming that we will do all the over 60s with AZ - some won't.
They will be done with what ever is available as they are at a relatively high risk. However the 12 week gap does help.
We should start the 65-69 asap. Use as many AZ for the next month. After that it will just be used for second doses.
If the same thing happens with J&J it will be a big blow.

Klonker

hmmm wrote: »

I'd take AZ in a heartbeat if it meant I could get a vaccine sooner.

I know that Captain Hindsights will be all over these decisions in time and NIAC will be in the firing line, but we are in a pandemic. We can't afford to have unused vaccines, even if they have rare side-effects. The Government need to give them some cover here if they need it.

NIAC and NPHET certainly haven't been trying to make things easy for the government.

Rebelbrowser

SusanC10 wrote: »

Why are you thinking that RTE jumped the gun ?

The report says this "...The group met this morning for a lengthy meeting and a further meeting is under way to agree and sign off on the issue...." which to my mind means no decision has been actually made yet.

Russman

So, if the figures in post #8606 are correct, there are 483,100 people between 60 & 69 in the country. That would mean 966k doses required.
We've already administered 233k AZ - presumably they're mostly first doses, would there be much overlap with the 966k above ?
We'll still probably need around a million AZ shots in total, give or take.

Klonker

Klonker wrote: »

So you're saying we should not give any 60-69 any other vaccines? This would mean a lot of people under 60 will be vaccinated before this group as the 60-69 group will be waiting on the Astra supply.

I'm not disagreeing but this is the tough decision now that government or however will have to make. Either what I outlined above or give out doses as they come in, meaning we'll have a load of Astra left over pushing our overall timeline out.

They will widen the bracket it is available for once more data narrows down the most susceptible groups.

NIAC will be looking at this from the the viewpoint of doing the most good - so restricting in to the younger groups less impacted by covid and using it in the groups most impacted by covid is understandable.
From the publicly available data they could have left it at 50 i think. They could also possibly have delayed any decision for 2 weeks as only the older groups and those at high risk were going to be getting it any way in that time period. I two weeks time a lot more will be known. In the absence of a decision however, hysteria would fill the gap, so is understandable why they moved on this.

stephenjmcd

hmmm wrote: »

I'd take AZ in a heartbeat if it meant I could get a vaccine sooner.

I know that Captain Hindsights will be all over these decisions in time and NIAC will be in the firing line, but we are in a pandemic. We can't afford to have unused vaccines, even if they have rare side-effects. The Government need to give them some cover here if they need it.

Its a very very rare side effect and a very small number of cases relative to the amount of AZ used.

I fail to see how they've come up with this recommendation to be honest.

None of us would take any medication or vaccine if we knew the very very rare side effects to each one.

(queue the replies of this isn't any other medication - they all come with a list of rare side effects)