COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Danzy

Polar101 wrote: »

Wouldn't really be the biggest surprise news of the decade, if that was the case.

I still don't see Sputnik being a big hit in the west.

If it works it should be a big hit.

Russia, America , Britain treated the development of vaccines as a war effort.

Given the economic cost it is.

No rush, we'll see how it goes approach of Europe is only going to do significant long-term damage to European countries.

seamie78

Irish Stones wrote: »

Generally it's a little slower during the weekends, so I'd say that it's more like 120k-150k per day during the weekends.
On Easter day it was just 93k. On Monday, the figure was just 160k, if I don't go wrong.
So this matches what I said in my previous post "a little over 1 million". Let's say 1.5 million per week, it takes 33 weeks to hit 50 millions (33 weeks are 8 months), but we have to consider the second shots (another 33 weeks?), and we're at 16 months, that is July/August 2022.



Are you still saying I'm wrong?

yeah as you are using the lowest possible figure you can come up with as opposed to predicted supplies, also the figure you quote of 220 is an average per day so therefore it the 93 you quote from sunday is completely irrelevant

ixoy

Danzy wrote: »

If it works it should be a big hit.

If it works, if people believe in it (look at AZ as to how people can lose faith in a Western vaccine) and, crucially, if they can manufacture enough supply then it might be a big hit.

Cork2021

Hopefully this is the end of all the AZ crap!

https://twitter.com/ema_news/status/1379712539722981376?s=21

Russman

Honestly I don't think there's a snowball's chance in he1l that Sputnik will be rolled out in Ireland ever. We have more than enough supply due from western companies, even if AZ were to go completely t1ts up.

eagle eye

Cork2021 wrote:

Hopefully this is the end of all the AZ crap!

If they didn't have answers two days ago then I doubt it.

lbj666

Cork2021 wrote: »

Hopefully this is the end of all the AZ crap!

https://twitter.com/ema_news/status/1379712539722981376?s=21

Somehow i doubt it will put an end to it.

Van.Bosch

936,087 doses administered as at Sunday 4th - increase of 3,763 since the day before.

1huge1

Van.Bosch wrote: »

936,087 doses administered as at Sunday 4th - increase of 3,763 since the day before.

Between that and the 8,446 doses administrated on Saturday, I find that quite frustrating, we know massive supplies have come into Ireland in the last week that have yet to be used.

Assume GPs aren't vaccinating on weekends? Is that good enough (if we have the supply).

Sanjuro

1huge1 wrote: »

Between that and the 8,446 doses administrated on Saturday, I find that quite frustrating, we know massive supplies have come into Ireland in the last week that have yet to be used.

Assume GPs aren't vaccinating on weekends? Is that good enough (if we have the supply).

Easter Saturday and Sunday. Expect smaller than usual numbers for tomorrow too considering they'll be the numbers for Easter Monday.

CrabRevolution

Deleted User wrote: »

Theyve won.

Know when your beaten.

They are getting herd immunity benefits as we speak which gives them options and relief from pandemnic now. Look at the state they were in this time last year. We are probably benefiting from our nearest neighbour looking very much under control.

Not so much herd imunity.with us at 13%.

Cases will probably be on the floor everywhere in europe come June due to seasonality of virus anyhow.The benefit they have over us and europe now brings respite to their population, to politicians, to businesses.

You're right on that one any way; they have double our death rate and there's no way we'll ever catch them.

JDD

Van.Bosch wrote: »

936,087 doses administered as at Sunday 4th - increase of 3,763 since the day before.

How many do you think we'll get vaccinated this week? This is the first week of the "ramp up" right?

And, if we now have a plentiful supply of vaccines, shouldn't we see little by the way of variation of numbers being vaccinated during the week as opposed to weekends?

Last question, have the HSE actually published how many new vaccinators they have hired since January?

eoinbn

VonLuck wrote: »

I always wondered about that. Surely during a pandemic administering vaccines should be maintained at the same level over weekends. Is this factored in to the weekday figures i.e. they administer more Mon-Fri to account for a reduction at the weekend?

The over 70's are currently been done by GP's. You can't expect them to work 12/7 for months on end - especially when there is no real need at the moment as
we are still limited by supply and will be until June. We have had days where we have hit 30k because supply has allowed us. Our biggest Pfizer delivery to date has been ~90k. We can go through that in 3-4 days even without most MVC's.
Once the MVC open up nationwide then we can expect more consistent numbers throughout the week.

JDD wrote: »

How many do you think we'll get vaccinated this week? This is the first week of the "ramp up" right?

And, if we now have a plentiful supply of vaccines, shouldn't we see little by the way of variation of numbers being vaccinated during the week as opposed to weekends?

I am not sure the ramp-up will happen this week or next. I expect that it will be April 19th onwards. I might be wrong but BioNtech aren't scheduled to start shipping doses until the second half of the month. Maybe Pfizer have improved their output or have different contract priorities for Q2.

Danzy

JDD wrote: »

How many do you think we'll get vaccinated this week? This is the first week of the "ramp up" right?

And, if we now have a plentiful supply of vaccines, shouldn't we see little by the way of variation of numbers being vaccinated during the week as opposed to weekends?

Last question, have the HSE actually published how many new vaccinators they have hired since January?

200k a week vaccinated and that's just by GPs, readily doable and exceeded in the past with flu Jabs.

Half a million a week with vaccination centres and the staff won't be rushed.

seamus

JTMan wrote: »

Does not sound like the EMA will approve Sputnik V soon.

Which is what Russia wants. They're using Sputnik as a political game for them. They want to prove there an anti-Russia bias in the EU.

A rough glance at the data suggests that Sputnik isn't a particularly good vaccine, the trial data is not rigorous and was suspiciously gathered. So we probably don't want it anyway, but to dismiss it out of hand would be a bad idea on a number of fronts.

The European Commission will put pressure on the EMA to drag out the approval process as long as possible, and eventually approve Sputnik, but only after it's become obsolete.

JDD wrote: »

How many do you think we'll get vaccinated this week? This is the first week of the "ramp up" right?

Every week until June at least we should beat the previous week. So if it was 135k last week, we can expect more than that this week.

The ramp-up in supply is continuous. They're projecting 860k doses in April, but that's not 215k each week. It'll be (for example) 150k in the first week, ramping up to 280k in the last week. This will continue on through to June. I'd say by late June we'll be doing 400k-500k doses a week.

eoinbn

seamus wrote: »

Every week until June at least we should beat the previous week. So if it was 135k last week, we can expect more than that this week.

The ramp-up in supply is continuous. They're projecting 860k doses in April, but that's not 215k each week. It'll be (for example) 150k in the first week, ramping up to 280k in the last week. This will continue on through to June. I'd say by late June we'll be doing 400k-500k doses a week.

There is no evidence of that. Supply won't be getting better every week. The overall trend will be upwards but some weeks will be lower than previous weeks. J&J look like they will supply some weeks and not others - like AZ. It is unlikely that we will get more doses this week than last week.

Van.Bosch

JDD wrote: »

How many do you think we'll get vaccinated this week? This is the first week of the "ramp up" right?

And, if we now have a plentiful supply of vaccines, shouldn't we see little by the way of variation of numbers being vaccinated during the week as opposed to weekends?

Last question, have the HSE actually published how many new vaccinators they have hired since January?

The jump in supply or the big delivery was AZ, GPS are doing Pfizer mainly. The AZ is being distributed by the HSE directly.

The numbers are disappointing alright but I’d hope to see some big big numbers for Tuesday and Wednesday onwards. I’d also like to see the end of 3,000 a day on Sunday’s. The previous rationale was that all the vaccines were given out by then but if that’s not the case anymore with increased supply, then Sunday should be no different than Wednesday, right?

Gael23

Van.Bosch wrote: »

936,087 doses administered as at Sunday 4th - increase of 3,763 since the day before.

1huge1c wrote: »

Between that and the 8,446 doses administrated on Saturday, I find that quite frustrating, we know massive supplies have come into Ireland in the last week that have yet to be used.

Assume GPs aren't vaccinating on weekends? Is that good enough (if we have the supply).

Given that there were 3 bank holidays I think we need to cut some slack this weekend

Melanchthon

franciscanpunk wrote: »

Fair enough it doesnt affect me but if i was your local supermarket worker, family member, doctor, etc I would feel that not only are you putting yourself at unnecessary greater risk you would also be putting me at extra risk too.

Agreed when you see posts like this

beggars_bush wrote: »

Many people think their life has ended as they cannot go shopping, go into a pub for a pint or out for a meal in a restaurant

You can see that there are people that obviously don't know anybody forced to sit on the PUP loosing money due to the restrictions (while knowing they will likely have a bigger tax bill when work does start).

The impact of shut downs are in no way equally spread.

VonLuck

eoinbn wrote: »

The over 70's are currently been done by GP's. You can't expect them to work 12/7 for months on end - especially when there is no real need at the moment as
we are still limited by supply and will be until June. We have had days where we have hit 30k because supply has allowed us. Our biggest Pfizer delivery to date has been ~90k. We can go through that in 3-4 days even without most MVC's.
Once the MVC open up nationwide then we can expect more consistent numbers throughout the week.

Well if the supply was there I would hope that there would be a push for GP's to go the extra mile and work weekends for a few weeks until the over 70's are finished and the remaining vaccines can be administered by others. But if the supply is the only limiting factor then I guess there's no need.

ek motor

Gael23 wrote: »

Given that there were 3 bank holidays I think we need to cut some slack this weekend

Why ? Is it not imperative to get the vaccines out asap regardless of bank holidays ?

IngazZagni

VonLuck wrote: »

Well if the supply was there I would hope that there would be a push for GP's to go the extra mile and work weekends for a few weeks until the over 70's are finished and the remaining vaccines can be administered by others. But if the supply is the only limiting factor then I guess there's no need.

Supply is clearly still the issue. My local GP said there is no point in doing vaccinations at weekends yet because they can easily administer all the vaccines they get on weekdays. That might change soon. I heard yesterday was their busiest day yet.

Russman

FWIW its worth my GP is doing vaccinations on Thursdays and Saturdays at the moment (seemingly that's dictated by deliveries). My father has an appointment for Saturday afternoon for his first shot (age 76).

snotboogie

If the millionth vaccine is adminstered today, we should have something like 5k for the bank holiday and 30k each for Tuesday and Wednesday. 1 million also gets us to 20 shots per 100.

I still have no idea why we seem to be the only developed country to update numbers 3 days behind the actual date? Every other country is only about 24 hours behind in reporting...

leahyl

Mum got a call from GP this morning - getting her first dose on the 16th April

snotboogie

snotboogie wrote: »

If the millionth vaccine is adminstered today, we should have something like 5k for the bank holiday and 30k each for Tuesday and Wednesday. 1 million also gets us to 20 shots per 100.

I still have no idea why we seem to be the only developed country to update numbers 3 days behind the actual date? Every other country is only about 24 hours behind in reporting...

I might be wrong but I don't think GPs presently have access to any kind of central data registry for Covid vaccines, so they are recording doses on their own first and then submitting the data to the HSE to record.

is_that_so

snotboogie wrote: »

If the millionth vaccine is adminstered today, we should have something like 5k for the bank holiday and 30k each for Tuesday and Wednesday. 1 million also gets us to 20 shots per 100.

I still have no idea why we seem to be the only developed country to update numbers 3 days behind the actual date? Every other country is only about 24 hours behind in reporting...

A lot of countries are using MVCs only. We've all sorts on the go at present so it takes time to collate.

Sweet.Science

Seems like the UK are having big supply issues at the moment

Interesting that they are going ahead with opening up from Monday

zuutroy

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Seems like the UK are having big supply issues at the moment

Interesting that they are going ahead with opening up from Monday

Full crowd of 1000 allowed in for the World Snooker Final in <4 weeks time.

Responder XY

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/eu-regulator-to-probe-ethical-standards-of-sputnik-vaccine-trials-1.4530866

I think this raises an interesting (although possibly hypothetical question) - if a vaccine is proven to be safe and effective, but the trials were not conducted to the ethical standards that they should have been, should it be used.

To use it is to overlook poor ethics in the testing, but to not use it means less people would be protected against covid (hypothetically assuming limited supply of other vaccines meaning this one would boost supply)

I'd say that as long as it's effective and safe it should be used, the greater ethical issue would be to not use it. But does anyone know how regulators will view that?