COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Irish Stones

seamie78 wrote: »

yeah as you are using the lowest possible figure you can come up with as opposed to predicted supplies, also the figure you quote of 220 is an average per day so therefore it the 93 you quote from sunday is completely irrelevant

It is not.
The average figure of the past 7 days is a little lower than 1.5 million, and it's the highest average so far.
Because the next supplies will be fewer than the expected, I don't think it'll be any improvement of that number, so it still applies as an average weekly roll out.
But I want to help you and say that, because the intervention of a magic event from the deep space, the average roll out will up to 2 million a week. What does that change in the calculation? It will still take a year to complete the 80% of the population, so, the best case scenario is that we are in April 2022... not much earlier, I'd say.

seamus

is_that_so wrote: »

A lot of countries are using MVCs only. We've all sorts on the go at present so it takes time to collate.

Indeed. I understand the GP-led approach for the over-70s, but I've heard so many anecdotes of GP surgeries with a haphazard approach to scheduling that I'm starting to think that the MVC approach should have been taken from the start. Acquire patient lists from GPs, send everyone to MVCs.

Any road, as you say hopefully we'll get our numbers more up-to-date as we move to phase 2 of the rollout.

Responder XY wrote: »

I think this raises an interesting (although possibly hypothetical question) - if a vaccine is proven to be safe and effective, but the trials were not conducted to the ethical standards that they should have been, should it be used.

There are international laws and agreements about this stuff. I don't know the full details. After WWII a LOT of medical research data was collected from German and Japanese facilities. To say it was gathered unethically is to put it very mildly.
Officially it was destroyed, never to be used. Though I expect it exists in some top-secret archive somewhere.
My personal feeling is that it should have been allowed to be used, provided that it was only used for beneficial purposes; new treatments for conditions, etc. To destroy it means that those who suffered in the experiments, suffered for nothing.
But I certainly can see the argument for not using it either.

In the Sputnik case though, the effectiveness of the vaccine and the ethics behind how the trial was conducted, are not mutually exclusive. That is, if large portions of the trial cohort were not volunteers, or if they were selected from specific populations (such as military and prisoners), then it calls into question the validity of the data overall. You cannot be sure that the results obtained through the use of forced participants, will be replicated if the vaccine is to be used among the general population.

seamie78

Irish Stones wrote: »

It is not.
The average figure of the past 7 days is a little lower than 1.5 million, and it's the highest average so far.
Because the next supplies will be fewer than the expected, I don't think it'll be any improvement of that number, so it still applies as an average weekly roll out.
But I want to help you and say that, because the intervention of a magic event from the deep space, the average roll out will up to 2 million a week. What does that change in the calculation? It will still take a year to complete the 80% of the population, so, the best case scenario is that we are in April 2022... not much earlier, I'd say.

as you say highest so far, its increasing all the time.........im leaving it at that

funnydoggy

My other half is getting her first vaccine on Tuesday. I'll be another good while given I'm not vulnerable and I'm in the 30~ age bracket but at least she'll be getting her shot soon

CIARAN_BOYLE

snotboogie wrote: »

If the millionth vaccine is adminstered today, we should have something like 5k for the bank holiday and 30k each for Tuesday and Wednesday. 1 million also gets us to 20 shots per 100.

I still have no idea why we seem to be the only developed country to update numbers 3 days behind the actual date? Every other country is only about 24 hours behind in reporting...

A lot of other countries are reporting vaccines administered like we report our deaths.

Reports of 200,000 vaccines administered were received on Monday while we report vaccinations on a day.

In the UK for example if a gp practice is vaccinating 5 days a week but an admin person comes in and fires a report on Friday all those vaccines are reported as being given on Friday.

Our figure for Friday vaccines is reported later but it actually ties in with vaccinations done on Friday.

stephenjmcd

Appintment booking for 65-69 begins week of 19th April

https://twitter.com/PTHosford/status/1379768420598738945?s=19

stephenjmcd

Expected deliveries Q2 and what arrived in Q1 from Dept of Health.

So dose number 1 million arrived last Wednesday and should be used probably by today. Its good going from arrival to distribution

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1379770370434158595?s=19

Strazdas

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Appintment booking for 65-69 begins week of 19th April

https://twitter.com/PTHosford/status/1379768420598738945?s=19

Oh right, that's interesting - the portal takes appointments by age and each age group then waits its turn for the portal to open for them.

vienne86

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Appintment booking for 65-69 begins week of 19th April

https://twitter.com/PTHosford/status/1379768420598738945?s=19

Well we were told it would be availabe BEFORE 19th April.......I wonder when vaccination will actually begin.

Wolf359f

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Appintment booking for 65-69 begins week of 19th April

https://twitter.com/PTHosford/status/1379768420598738945?s=19

1.7 mil vaccinated in May based off a supply of 1.25mil in May.
Something doesn't add up there.

ixoy

My Dad got his first shot at the weekend so that now means I'm the only one in my immediate family without a vaccine

lbj666

Wolf359f wrote: »

1.7 mil vaccinated in May based off a supply of 1.25mil in May.
Something doesn't add up there.

Likely that he's may and June mixed up, ah he's a tryer
Am I right in saying we are getting similar amount of Jansen in July and Jun like 400k. With the rest having a similar sustained supply in July. So whatever slippage in targets by end of June would be mopped up quiet fast in July.

I ask nearly every week but is there any sign of Pfizer updating the dosage interval based on UK data? whatever about at risk, it's overkill for any non risk groups that end up getting it with a 4 week gap.

astrofool

lbj666 wrote: »

Likely that he's may and June mixed up, ah he's a tryer
Am I right in saying we are getting similar amount of Jansen in July and Jun like 400k. With the rest having a similar sustained supply in July. So whatever slippage in targets by end of June would be mopped up quiet fast in July.

I ask nearly every week but is there any sign of Pfizer updating the dosage interval based on UK data? whatever about at risk, it's overkill for any non risk groups that end up getting it with a 4 week gap.

I haven't heard any update on the Pfizer schedule, which data are you referring to specifically? Anything I've seen from the UK so far tended to be from a mix of vaccines, so was hard to draw any conclusions from (other than vaccines work great).

Champagne Sally

How long to folks reckon each 5 yr group will take? I see 65-69yr olds, portal opening 19th April so I'm just trying to work through the numbers. Two weeks for that group would that be too short do you reckon?

I suppose it depends on how many are in each group.

Russman

Champagne Sally wrote: »

How long to folks reckon each 5 yr group will take? I see 65-69yr olds, portal opening 19th April so I'm just trying to work through the numbers. Two weeks for that group would that be too short do you reckon?

I suppose it depends on how many are in each group.

There was a piece at the weekend by someone in the Sunday Business Post (think it was quoted on here a few pages back) where she reckoned that the 45-55 year old group would have their first dose by end of May.
I was a little surprised it would be that soon tbh but great if it is.

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/mark_coughlan/status/1379772733513474048?s=21

dominatinMC

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://twitter.com/mark_coughlan/status/1379772733513474048?s=21

Good to see BioNTech as the workhorse, who would have thought it back in December. That in itself kind of epitomises how dynamic the whole situation is. I know all vaccines are great, and the one you are offered is the best one for you, but BioNTech really is the gold standard at the moment. Studies show it reduces transmission, works against "variants of concern", etc.

Micky 32

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1379756117262209026?s=21

PhoenixParker

Champagne Sally wrote: »

How long to folks reckon each 5 yr group will take? I see 65-69yr olds, portal opening 19th April so I'm just trying to work through the numbers. Two weeks for that group would that be too short do you reckon?

I suppose it depends on how many are in each group.

Very quick.

They’ll be using AZ.
Up to end March we had received 340k doses.
To date we’ve used 205k.
There are 135k doses in the country and another 224k due by month end.

To date, AZ is mostly for cohort 4 which is really tough to identify people in.
No second doses of AZ will be due until May.

The whole of 65-69 is 200-225k people. Looks like plan is to mostly use MVCs which will be quick.

If a 65+ year old wants it, they should have it by end of April, maybe week 1 May.

Champagne Sally

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://twitter.com/mark_coughlan/status/1379772733513474048?s=21

Thanks for that ACE, I've done the maths and the difference between the two estimates is 133,875 with Mark's original being overstated by this amount. The main reason is Astra Zenaca he says deliveries of 958,550 vs Governments estimate of 813,000. Are the Government just being cautious? We shall see.

There's been a report in Germany today that some of their April delivery of Moderna has been cancelled, can't be sure there's any truth to it yet or if it may also impact other EU countries

https://www.businessinsider.de/politik/deutschland/moderna-lieferung-von-bis-zu-878-000-impfstoff-dosen-geplatzt/

patnor1011

And nobody knows if AZ will be still used as this vaccine only have emergency use approval and EMA is starting to crack.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-vaccin-idUSKBN2BT1ER

Behind paywall but full article can be found on other sites.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/oxford-pauses-dosing-in-trial-of-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-in-children-teenagers-11617729303

lbj666

astrofool wrote: »

I haven't heard any update on the Pfizer schedule, which data are you referring to specifically? Anything I've seen from the UK so far tended to be from a mix of vaccines, so was hard to draw any conclusions from (other than vaccines work great).

I thought there were phase 4 studies in the UK specifically for Pfizer.

lbj666

patnor1011 wrote: »

And nobody knows if AZ will be still used as this vaccine only have emergency use approval and EMA is starting to crack.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-vaccin-idUSKBN2BT1ER

Behind paywall but full article can be found on other sites.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/oxford-pauses-dosing-in-trial-of-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-in-children-teenagers-11617729303

It has emergency approval in the UK, full approval by the EMA.

stephenjmcd

Wolf359f wrote: »

1.7 mil vaccinated in May based off a supply of 1.25mil in May.
Something doesn't add up there.

Journalist has corrected himself

https://twitter.com/PTHosford/status/1379793842652774405?s=19

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/DarrenGBNews/status/1379795796057542660?s=20

ACitizenErased

Live:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R44xKGOZ0kQ

stephenjmcd

EMA’s safety committee (PRAC) has concluded today that unusual blood clots with low blood platelets should be listed as very rare side effects of Vaxzevria (formerly COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca).

https://twitter.com/EMA_News/status/1379794539456688137?s=19

ACitizenErased

169 cases in EU reporting database of the clots out of 34 million doses administered

ACitizenErased

UK MHRA have announced they are offering vaccines other than AstraZeneca to Under-30s.