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COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP
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It's based on eligible/adult population.
So it would be a jump from about 10% to 19%
I think. It's hard when they start using different % based on total population or adult population.
Personally I would prefer they stick to % of total population, which is more relevant for herd immunity, but with them being unfairly compared to other countries whose % is based on those presently eligible for vaccination, I can see why they highlight the 19%.0 -
Is 850k still the goal for April? We have only done 80k in the first 6 days. That leaves us 770 to do in 24 days. That's an average of 32k per day. However there are 6 weekend days left. If we continue to average 5k per day on weekends we will need to average 41k per day on weekdays to reach 850k this month.
Even if we up the weekends to 10k, we still need to average 40k on weekdays.
Summary, the weekends are killing us at the moment and we will struggle to meet 850k in April at our current rate, especially if as I expect, we only hit 30k on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
1.5 million total by the end of the month, or 600k total for April looks far more likely to me at the moment. We are going to either have to stop the weekend delays and match them to weekdays or start pulling out some 50k days to make up for the shortfall. I don't see either happening. A 50k day puts us at 1 per 100, that is globally notable and would put us top of the world in administration. Even 5 back to back 40k days would put us among the world's best.0 -
...BERLIN (Reuters) - Global supply chains for making COVID-19 vaccines have been disrupted by U.S. restrictions, creating headaches for companies seeking to build production in Europe, according to one of the founders of Germany’s Curevac.
Florian von der Muelbe said in a newspaper interview that he was hopeful Curevac’s vaccine candidate would win emergency European approval this quarter and confirmed a forecast that it would produce 300 million doses this year.
He added, however, that vaccine makers seeking to build production in Europe were at a serious disadvantage because suppliers in the United States were required under the Defense Production Act to meet the needs of the home market first.
“Global supply chains are disrupted,” von der Muelbe, now Curevac’s chief production officer, told the Rheinische Post in an interview published on Wednesday.
“Be it chemicals, equipment, filters or hoses: U.S. manufacturers are obliged first to meet American demand, and that means we are slipping down the list.”
Curevac is already producing its vaccine candidate, which is based on messenger RNA (mRNA) technology, at its plant in Tuebingen, Germany.
It has just struck a partnership with Swiss contract manufacturer Celonic Group, adding to earlier alliances with Novartis AG, Bayer AG, Fareva, Wacker and Rentschler Biopharma SE.0 -
I think cohort 4 has been a bit of a mistake, we're just not digitised enough to roll out an ambiguous group quickly, would have been better to either just go with age based, or go with strict criteria that doesn't change (where that criteria is that you're identified by a certain date which would have avoided all the people who remembered they had a chronic illlness but haven't been getting treated for it)
I dont agree entirely... reading across the boards covid thread and having family friends neighbours in that cohort and people I know working with(ngos) or/treating them.. Some gps and hospital consultants and even ngo's have definitly been more organised than others in getting their lists together and in some instances personally contacting the patients/clients.
Maybe they ones that havn't been able to needed more logistical/organisational help or extra staff especially GP's.
Note that if on the medical card and you have a chronic illnesss you maybe waiting years to see a consultant and also once you have seen one if there is more than a set time for example two years between appointments... you have to apply again via your gp or go to a and e..
You take care of yourself with both medicines you are on and personal care and do everything in your power to stay stablised with your issue and then for whatever reason you go downhill and then you have to start the referral process over again or end up on a and e.( a great other option is the specialised eye public a and e in cork/dublin as time is parmount incases as in a extremely short time you can lose sight forever)
And remember the effects of lockdown this year on outpatient appointments especially first timers or those with the gap have been impacted in the public system.
And most people dont just remember they have a chronic illness at the last moment either they are not educated/unsure re their diseases ramifications or are waiting up to 4 years for an outpatients public appointment or just trying to get on with life the best the can especially in the public system.
So a lot of people especially in waiting on public healthcare apointments are in limbo between their gp and consultant/specialist.
This needs to change and digital is not the be all..you might be able to word search..but this does not replace the need to personally know your patient well or read through their notes or check with them/hospital/gp for an update.
If you choose a cut of date that puts non private patients at a disadvantage..also for example their has been changing to the cut off point re the weight issue and many more have fallen into that catorgory this year working from home or due to stress for example caring for relatives/losing a job etc....where as the asthma at risk cohort has been narrowed etc. And with some patients in cohort 4 timing of the injection in relation to their medication protocol can be important for example RA patients and immunosupressants. Decisions also had to be made is it safe enough for this person to have it in the GPs versus a hospital...etc
Many countys public wait lists are 2 to 4 years orthopedic/neurology/rhuematoid/immunology/obesity clinic etc and I am sure others here can add more to that list. eg needed orthapedic appointment private/public consultant told me either 2/4 weeks wait private or up to 2 years public even though my career/future depended on the issue.
And while we are at another little gem re covid..no post covid viral clinic in many countys you are refered back to a and e...see posts on boards elsewhere and I confirmed this talking to local HCWs.
In summation digitisation(and most gps are computerised) helps a little re narrowing numbers but reading through patients files needs a specialised human eye which takes time and staff and then following up ....and decisions on patients waiting for hospital appointments takes more time in public system due to waiting list backlogs in some areas..and puts them at a disadvantage to private patients.
If totally age based that puts younger high risk people who have maybe up to 50 years of life expectancy at a disadvantage or doubly if in the public system... if we were to do that whst the heck as all the sacrifice of the last year been about..numerous times during the year they have played second fiddle already.
And remember these treatments/injections anyhow are mean to be more useful to high risk persons in them avoiding hospital/severe illness than others in a pure age based system who really dont need them as critically ..if they are young and healthy.
Anyhow apologies re post rambles a bit...a lot of this information has been posted here before on this thread if you were to amalgate previous posts especially earlier on.0 -
stephenjmcd wrote: »What's in the vials is not what was submitted to the Lancet so no point in throwing in a link to the BBC which quotes it, its pretty straightforward to understand.
Slovakia expected x in the vials they've looked at it and tested it and got y.
What's so hard to understand?
In all likelihood the discrepancies would have zero impact on the efficacy of the vaccine. There is a good reason why manufacturers a required to produce evidence that the batch is what it says it is however . Have a look at the Hepirin scandal where manufacturers went outside the normal supply chains and received fake active ingredient, or the silicon implants scandal, where manufacturers again sourced components outside normal supply chains and ended up implanting industrial grade rather than medical grade silicon in many people. I would suggest there is a good chance what ever discrepancy exists is related to the sourcing of component used in formulation by a contract manufacturer.0 -
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I dont agree entirely... reading across the boards covid thread and having family friends neighbours in that cohort and people I know working with(ngos) or/treating them.. Some gps and hospital consultants and even ngo's have definitly been more organised than others in getting their lists together and in some instances personally contacting the patients/clients.
Maybe they ones that havn't been able to needed more logistical/organisational help or extra staff especially GP's.
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Great post speckle. I'd add one point which is it seems the changing cohort requirements are not clear enough in some cases. For example the immunocompromised section states:treatment: - included but not limited to Cyclophosphamide, Rituximab, Alemtuzumab, Cladribine or Ocrelizumab in the last 6 months
I've seen several posts from people on "other" immunosuppressive meds who have received a vaccine (or at least an appointment) but one of the largest public Rheumatology departments in the country told me today that they are only including patients receiving the named medications! Seems to be completely up to the individual department/consultant.0 -
I think cohort 4 has been a bit of a mistake, we're just not digitised enough to roll out an ambiguous group quickly, would have been better to either just go with age based, or go with strict criteria that doesn't change (where that criteria is that you're identified by a certain date which would have avoided all the people who remembered they had a chronic illlness but haven't been getting treated for it)
Have to disagree. They're the group after over 70s most likely to require hospitalisations. The more of these you identify and vaccinate the better. Working them in parallel with all the other cohorts is the way to go.
Going solely age based before supply ramped up wouldn't ease the burden on the health services as efficiently.0 -
snotboogie wrote: »Is 850k still the goal for April? We have only done 80k in the first 6 days. That leaves us 770 to do in 24 days. That's an average of 32k per day. However there are 6 weekend days left. If we continue to average 5k per day on weekends we will need to average 41k per day on weekdays to reach 850k this month.
Even if we up the weekends to 10k, we still need to average 40k on weekdays.
Summary, the weekends are killing us at the moment and we will struggle to meet 850k in April at our current rate, especially if as I expect, we only hit 30k on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
1.5 million total by the end of the month, or 600k total for April looks far more likely to me at the moment. We are going to either have to stop the weekend delays and match them to weekdays or start pulling out some 50k days to make up for the shortfall. I don't see either happening. A 50k day puts us at 1 per 100, that is globally notable and would put us top of the world in administration. Even 5 back to back 40k days would put us among the world's best.
I believe so. I've heard that the first supplies of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine are expected here in the next seven days (earlier than was anticipated).0 -
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Lucas Hood wrote: »Were only expecting 40000 from J&J in April according to Dept of Health.
Indeed, but it seems deliveries of all vaccines will be higher here in April than they were in March : ramping up across the board.0 -
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Pharmacists probably could have identified those in cohort 4 or 7 quicker based on prescriptions.
Seems there's alot of paperwork involved with prescriptions until you get to the chemist when it's finally entered into a computer system (based on my experience only)
They have the capability to identify, contact and administer a vaccine for those cohorts.
Agree with identitfy( but HSe already privy to that info) but not necessarily adminster..as people change pharmacist over the years.. would they nessesarily know you had a previous adverse reaction of what type... or your vaccinations optimal timing if on immunosuppressants for RA? Or that you might be hospitalised at the moment or bedbound or fallen into obsese cohort or had a previous covid infection. Definitely part of the picture but I would prefer to have at a mininum a GP around at the time of injection..This very different than an annual influenza injection for the high risk cohort...that is not saying it wont change in the future re adminstration....There may also be a liability issue?0 -
I'm sure flu vaccines also have adverse reactions.0
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Why has AZ 12 week and PFizer 4 - is there a real answer to this question can anyone tell me
Because there's only so much time and data that can happen.
Aside from anything else the variables of gender, age and weight will have a huge impact on which is marginally more effective than the other depending on timing of the jab.
We see it with other jabs, the gaps are the gaps, that's the accepted way to do it. Once it works then fine.
Otherwise you'd have to run multiple trials in multiple places at multiple times in order to find which gap provides the absolute best reaction. If there's a big difference in gender/age then you might have to run more trials all over again.
In the trials for Covid jabs the number of cases in the placebo groups were very small so even one in the dosed group could lead to a method being written off in favour of a different gap.
It's a problem in science and medicine where everything is "by the book". I, a 20+ stone man with asthma get the same dose of antibiotics and steroids as women half my weight get for a chest infection. Does that make sense? Not particularly but that's the level that was tested so that's the box that's ticked.
Things are more wooly and rough around the margins than people like to admit and so they cling to box-ticking and list checking.0 -
My Father is 64.
He has some sort of immune condition but the doctor has not attached a label to it. As such it doesn't count as a risk factor for covid. 6 blood tests over the last 18 months showing chronically low white blood cell counts.
He had an unknown viral infection about 18 months ago that had him spend 6 weeks in hospital.
He is also epileptic and on strongly dailly medicines for that. After a seizure he tends to be confused for a period of 10-15 minutes. He wouldn't be able to follow social distancing during this confusion.
He is also on a waiting list for a knee replacement. His doctor has suggested that it would be wise to delay any operation until he has been vaccinated as he may need residential rehab.
He also has intermittent back problems although that shouldn't have any impact on vaccination.
His GP today said there's no chance he will be vaccinated until the 18-64 year old group is being done. His doctor had previously told him he would be in one of the risk groups.
Sometimes it feels very frustrating.0 -
Anyone any idea how many people are in cohort 8 (adults 16 - 64 in long term care)? I imagine many of them were probably already covered through cohorts 4 and 7. I don't know if "long term care" includes prisons or is that the parallel cohort to cohort 9 (living in crowded accommodation). Looking the delivery numbers for April and how many have already been vaccinated, I'm of the opinion we could have first dosed everyone in cohorts 1-7 by end of April.
(My assumptions:
105k people in cohort 1
245k people in cohort 2
500k people in cohort 3
350k people in cohort 4/7 combined
250k people in cohort 5/6 combined).0 -
CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »He had an unknown viral infection about 18 months ago that had him spend 6 weeks in hospital.
Covid was in Europe as far back as November 20190 -
snotboogie wrote: »Is 850k still the goal for April? We have only done 80k in the first 6 days. That leaves us 770 to do in 24 days. That's an average of 32k per day. However there are 6 weekend days left. If we continue to average 5k per day on weekends we will need to average 41k per day on weekdays to reach 850k this month.
Even if we up the weekends to 10k, we still need to average 40k on weekdays.
Summary, the weekends are killing us at the moment and we will struggle to meet 850k in April at our current rate, especially if as I expect, we only hit 30k on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
1.5 million total by the end of the month, or 600k total for April looks far more likely to me at the moment. We are going to either have to stop the weekend delays and match them to weekdays or start pulling out some 50k days to make up for the shortfall. I don't see either happening. A 50k day puts us at 1 per 100, that is globally notable and would put us top of the world in administration. Even 5 back to back 40k days would put us among the world's best.
860k was the target but it seems to have been revised upwards a bit.
Note delivery does not equal vaccinations. If 150k doses arrive very late in the month then it is hard to expect them to be all used. However we will be carrying over doses from last month so that will offset some of that.
Weekends aren't the issue - supply of vaccines are. The vaccines we do have in stock are been held for a special cohort that is proving hard to identify. Once the supply issue is addressed, which is happening, then we will see high vaccination figures throughout the week.0 -
[Deleted User] wrote: »Because there's only so much time and data that can happen.
Aside from anything else the variables of gender, age and weight will have a huge impact on which is marginally more effective than the other depending on timing of the jab.
We see it with other jabs, the gaps are the gaps, that's the accepted way to do it. Once it works then fine.
Otherwise you'd have to run multiple trials in multiple places at multiple times in order to find which gap provides the absolute best reaction. If there's a big difference in gender/age then you might have to run more trials all over again.
In the trials for Covid jabs the number of cases in the placebo groups were very small so even one in the dosed group could lead to a method being written off in favour of a different gap.
It's a problem in science and medicine where everything is "by the book". I, a 20+ stone man with asthma get the same dose of antibiotics and steroids as women half my weight get for a chest infection. Does that make sense? Not particularly but that's the level that was tested so that's the box that's ticked.
Things are more wooly and rough around the margins than people like to admit and so they cling to box-ticking and list checking.
This is an inaccurate post.
The Oxford trials initially tried short dosing intervals but werent getting the desired antibody responses. So they tried other intervals.
Medication such as steroids are frequently adjusted by weight. In fact, the dosages are usually given as mg per 5 kg of body weight. (Nurses btw are amazing here they usually calculate this stuff on the fly.)
Other factors such as individuals bloods levels, medication, previous illnesses are all taken into account when determining medication and dosage.0 -
I've seen several posts from people on "other" immunosuppressive meds who have received a vaccine (or at least an appointment) but one of the largest public Rheumatology departments in the country told me today that they are only including patients receiving the named medications! Seems to be completely up to the individual department/consultant.
That is what I have noticed too, my Dad has rheumatoid arthritis and takes Humira (Adalimumab) which wasn't on any list I could find and his consultant had told him that he was not in cohort 4.
But, then his GP rang this morning and told him to expect an appointment to get AZ within the next 24hrs.
I think this proves the difficultly in identifying all those in cohort 4 and further shows the decision to move to an age based approach after this cohort was the correct decision.CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »My Father is 64.
He has some sort of immune condition but the doctor has not attached a label to it. As such it doesn't count as a risk factor for covid. 6 blood tests over the last 18 months showing chronically low white blood cell counts.
He had an unknown viral infection about 18 months ago that had him spend 6 weeks in hospital.
He is also epileptic and on strongly dailly medicines for that. After a seizure he tends to be confused for a period of 10-15 minutes. He wouldn't be able to follow social distancing during this confusion.
He is also on a waiting list for a knee replacement. His doctor has suggested that it would be wise to delay any operation until he has been vaccinated as he may need residential rehab.
He also has intermittent back problems although that shouldn't have any impact on vaccination.
His GP today said there's no chance he will be vaccinated until the 18-64 year old group is being done. His doctor had previously told him he would be in one of the risk groups.
Sometimes it feels very frustrating.
I felt the same frustration, but hopefully it'll be very soon for your father too.0 -
stefanovich wrote: »Covid was in Europe as far back as November 2019
Wasn't covid. Definitely not.
The symptoms didn't match.0 -
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CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »Wasn't covid. Definitely not.
The symptoms didn't match.
A lot of the symptoms are not widely publicised. Rash, stomach pains etc...0 -
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has anyone tried this: https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/ireland-vaccine-queue
Apologies if its already been posted
The supply issue is a load of BS in my opinion, the HSE have ****ed this up as they still dont have their logistics squared away.
This calculator is fairly simple maths, currently uses a vaccination rate of 137K per week and an uptake rate of 74%, which we hit last week but I dont think we'll be able to do it consistently. The fact that its not consistent tells you they haven't got their ducks in a row logistically.
Based on me having no underlying conditions or no special case and currently being in my late 40s this predicts I will get my first vaccination late July early August.
If I was 25 it will be November!
Its been almost 4 months of "the vaccines are coming lads", the vaccines are there, they just haven't setup the infrastructure to handle giving them out. Its always someone else's issue.
I call bull**** on the Ministers assertion that 80% of adults who want one will be offered one by the end of June. We'll get news on some other supply issues at the end of April or early May I predict.0 -
Oh ffs. That's been posted many many times and it's total bull**** piece of ****.0
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That is what I have noticed too, my Dad has rheumatoid arthritis and takes Humira (Adalimumab) which wasn't on any list I could find and his consultant had told him that he was not in cohort 4.
But, then his GP rang this morning and told him to expect an appointment to get AZ within the next 24hrs.
I think this proves the difficultly in identifying all those in cohort 4 and further shows the decision to move to an age based approach after this cohort was the correct decision.
Yeah this is similar to my meds (I'm on a combination of secukinumab and methotrexate) so it looks like it's up to the GP now. Unfortunately they told me earlier this week that they haven't even looked at cohort 4 yet as they are expecting to be vaccinating over 70s for another 2-3 weeks.
I agree that the age based approach is better as identifying all of the previously planned cohorts was going to be a nightmare.0 -
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has anyone tried this: https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/ireland-vaccine-queue
Apologies if its already been posted
The supply issue is a load of BS in my opinion, the HSE have ****ed this up as they still dont have their logistics squared away.
This calculator is fairly simple maths, currently uses a vaccination rate of 137K per week and an uptake rate of 74%, which we hit last week but I dont think we'll be able to do it consistently. The fact that its not consistent tells you they haven't got their ducks in a row logistically.
Based on me having no underlying conditions or no special case and currently being in my late 40s this predicts I will get my first vaccination late July early August.
If I was 25 it will be November!
Its been almost 4 months of "the vaccines are coming lads", the vaccines are there, they just haven't setup the infrastructure to handle giving them out. Its always someone else's issue.
I call bull**** on the Ministers assertion that 80% of adults who want one will be offered one by the end of June. We'll get news on some other supply issues at the end of April or early May I predict.
It's been around a few months and it's a load of rubbish, has been discussed here before. Anyone can input whatever numbers they want into it and it doesn't take into account any increase in supply at all.
Nothing more to say about it really0 -
So I have a 1 in 250,000 chance of developing a serious blood clot condition when getting two shots of AZ...
whereas I had a 1 in 10,000 chance of developing blood clots (which in all cases can be serious) when taking the contraceptive pill. Which I took every day for 20 years.
And I have 1 in 1,000 chance of developing a blood clot when taking a long haul flight.
This panic is nonsense. Give me the AZ (or whatever you have) please.0 -
has anyone tried this: https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/ireland-vaccine-queue
Apologies if its already been posted
The supply issue is a load of BS in my opinion, the HSE have ****ed this up as they still dont have their logistics squared away.
This calculator is fairly simple maths, currently uses a vaccination rate of 137K per week and an uptake rate of 74%, which we hit last week but I dont think we'll be able to do it consistently. The fact that its not consistent tells you they haven't got their ducks in a row logistically.
Based on me having no underlying conditions or no special case and currently being in my late 40s this predicts I will get my first vaccination late July early August.
If I was 25 it will be November!
Its been almost 4 months of "the vaccines are coming lads", the vaccines are there, they just haven't setup the infrastructure to handle giving them out. Its always someone else's issue.
I call bull**** on the Ministers assertion that 80% of adults who want one will be offered one by the end of June. We'll get news on some other supply issues at the end of April or early May I predict.
So you are saying that Ireland and all the other 26 countries in the EU are all simultaneously lying and involved in a big over up of how many vaccines are available?
That would require tens of thousands of people to toe the same line to keep that lie going.0 -
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has anyone tried this: https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/ireland-vaccine-queue
Apologies if its already been posted
The supply issue is a load of BS in my opinion, the HSE have ****ed this up as they still dont have their logistics squared away.
This calculator is fairly simple maths, currently uses a vaccination rate of 137K per week and an uptake rate of 74%, which we hit last week but I dont think we'll be able to do it consistently. The fact that its not consistent tells you they haven't got their ducks in a row logistically.
Based on me having no underlying conditions or no special case and currently being in my late 40s this predicts I will get my first vaccination late July early August.
If I was 25 it will be November!
Its been almost 4 months of "the vaccines are coming lads", the vaccines are there, they just haven't setup the infrastructure to handle giving them out. Its always someone else's issue.
I call bull**** on the Ministers assertion that 80% of adults who want one will be offered one by the end of June. We'll get news on some other supply issues at the end of April or early May I predict.
Why 137k per week?
"ill believe the random calculator created on the internet that assumes everything stays the same as now rather than real projections, from all over Europe that are matching the actual vaccination ramp"0
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