Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

ArthurDayne

Windmill100000 wrote: »

I really don't see many places willing to defy restrictions and open up now. There was talk about it on here after the beautician in Dublin opened, but that resulted in nothing.

People have done a lot to keep numbers down and I think most people are prepared to keep doing so. I am not seeing anything to show that people will change now as hospital numbers reduce and people get vaccinated.

Of course I 100% could be wrong, this is just my opinion, but I personally don't see anything happening while the situation is improving.

Really can’t say I agree with this. Both my parents and one living grandparent (all in the North) have been vaccinated and it has certainly made them more relaxed and indeed has made me more relaxed in going to see them — not quite physical contact but certainly more relaxed. They have all received the first dose Pfizer vaccine and the data is showing a very good level of protection some 2-3 weeks after getting it.

People do not abide by laws more so than they abide by risk. That takes two forms: (i) the risk which the law is designed to prevent and (ii) the risk of prosecution or hindrance by authorities for breaking a law. Even with first dose vaccines, people will deem that the risk which the restrictions are designed to prevent has been lessened in terms of seeing family etc, which will make them less inclined to comply. It then becomes a question of whether the authorities will try to ramp up policing and enforcement — which might be very difficult.

Obviously I can’t say for sure, but I think it seem dubious to conclude that the level of compliance will not correlate to a descending level of risk.

gozunda

darconio wrote: »

Funny you mention that because they didn't think twice about reverting the already ridiculous relaxation of restrictions during xmas to level 5 when the numbers rose, but the other way around of course doesn't work

Is it funny?

The figures you gave were from a single day. Planning for covid both here and elsewhere is not based on just one days data set.

Are you're saying restrictions were never lowered last year?

SAMTALK

darconio wrote: »

Which part of : can you explain me why non-essential business are closed?
If I am safe shopping for groceries, why suddenly I am in danger shopping for a pair of shoes in the same store in the aisle beside the lettuce?

I would imagine it's to stop browsing. Go to any clothes shop and you will have people rambling around just having a look.

Go do your grocery shopping, it's get what you need and out

TonyMaloney

darconio wrote: »

It was of course an exaggeration Tony, but after spending one year in lockdown, more than half of which in full level 5, and they are still telling us that the april surge will collapse the health system, I am not sure what they could implement if not more restrictions.
But you either don't have the capacity or more likely the will, to understand any of it.

https://www.thejournal.ie/coronavirus-22-march-5388039-Mar2021/

Of the cases notified today:

258 are men / 262 are women
79% are under 45 years of age
The median age is 28 years old
242 in Dublin, 36 in Meath, 30 in Offaly, 29 in Kildare, 25 in Wicklow and the remaining 158 cases are spread across 20 other counties.

I will ask you again: based on the above numbers when can we start putting in place a plan of "living with covid"?
How many vulnerable live in Ireland? because last time I checked it has the youngest population in Europe, what else are we supposed to do to make sure the non-vulnerable can have a resemblance of normal life? 0 covid isn't it? Sorry, not going to happen, in the meantime they have destroyed the livelihood of an entire nation, many families reached the point of no return and many business will never reopen.

I explained this all to you the other day using official data. Nothing has changed. It still applies.

**** it. I'll have one more go.
Do you know what EU country is leading the race in vaccinations?

Hungary. They bought up a load of Russian doses early on and are quite a bit ahead of most other countries.





Now by your logic, as Hungary have a significant proportion of their elderly population vaccinated they should be ale to open up and "live with the virus".
Unfortunately that's not the case at all. They've had a terrible time over the last 12 months, but never worse than right now.

They're now back in lockdown.

Windmill100000

ArthurDayne wrote: »

Really can’t say I agree with this. Both my parents and one living grandparent (all in the North) have been vaccinated and it has certainly made them more relaxed and indeed has made me more relaxed in going to see them — not quite physical contact but certainly more relaxed. They have all received the first dose Pfizer vaccine and the data is showing a very good level of protection some 2-3 weeks after getting it.

People do not abide by laws more so than they abide by risk. That takes two forms: (i) the risk which the law is designed to prevent and (ii) the risk of prosecution or hindrance by authorities for breaking a law. Even with first dose vaccines, people will deem that the risk which the restrictions are designed to prevent has been lessened in terms of seeing family etc, which will make them less inclined to comply. It then becomes a question of whether the authorities will try to ramp up policing and enforcement — which might be very difficult.

Obviously I can’t say for sure, but I think it seem dubious to conclude that the level of compliance will not correlate to a descending level of risk.

I was replying to a comment about businesses defying restrictions.

I agree as more people are vaccinated people will be meeting up more. If cases do rise though in the meantime we won't be relaxing much in the way of restrictions. It's certainly been the case since Christmas and I dont see that position changing. People can come on here and say they are meeting x,y, z amount of people. Work away, I say, but if lockdown is extended as a result of rising numbers they had better be prepared to live with the consequences of a further extended lockdown till numbers drop.

copeyhagen

whats the odds on the barbers opening in next 2 weeks? fairly low?!

i know most people i know have been getting it done in barbers houses lately, but i have been doing my own. not great by any stretch but does the job. dont want to do it now if they could open in april.

so the alternative is another home job or go barbers house.

darconio

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I explained this all to you the other day using official data. Nothing has changed. It still applies.

**** it. I'll have one more go.
Do you know what EU country is leading the race in vaccinations? [....]

Thanks for the attempt, so can you confirm that according to you the only viable solution is level 5 and full lockdown until the whole population is vaccinated?
And once the whole population is vaccinated can you confirm there won't be a new strain that will render every effort up until that date futile?
In the meantime 99% of the population won't be affected by this strain or any strain, if not with non-existent or mild flu symptoms.

Captain_Crash

SAMTALK wrote: »

I would imagine it's to stop browsing. Go to any clothes shop and you will have people rambling around just having a look.

Go do your grocery shopping, it's get what you need and out

The Dunnes in Rathfarnham has half the isles blocked off, you can buy a jacket and nice T-shirt, and you can even browse the household section and buy clocks and cushions, but you can’t buy a pair of tracksuit bottoms or hoodie? It just doesn’t make sense! You can buy glasses and plates etc, but go across the road to home store and more and you can’t buy the very same items because covid...!

I get the logic of essential items but in practice is simply doesn’t work and just piles the same number of people into fewer shops and smaller spaces! Why do Homestore say you can’t buy a cup and saucer but Dunnes next door say you can? Does anyone even really know?

copeyhagen

Captain_Crash wrote: »

The Dunnes in Rathfarnham has half the isles blocked off, you can buy a jacket and nice T-shirt, and you can even browse the household section and buy clocks and cushions, but you can’t buy a pair of tracksuit bottoms or hoodie? It just doesn’t make sense! You can buy glasses and plates etc, but go across the road to home store and more and you can’t buy the very same items because covid...!

I get the logic of essential items but in practice is simply doesn’t work and just piles the same number of people into fewer shops and smaller spaces! Why do Homestore say you can’t buy a cup and saucer but Dunnes next door say you can? Does anyone even really know?

i needed some daytime t shirts from dunnes few weeks ago. round necks you can buy fine, but polo t shirts are a no :pac:

i just went under their tape barrier, picked my few items and brought them to the checkout. i was afraid they wouldnt scan, but low and behold the lady never said anything and i went on my way. riddled with covid obv.

Loafing Oaf

copeyhagen wrote: »

whats the odds on the barbers opening in next 2 weeks? fairly low?!

batman_oh

Bridge93 wrote: »

I think what pisses me off the most is the lack of practical thinking being shown by those in charge. Vaccines are annoying but somewhat stuck by the EU and its dealings and lockdowns are awful obviously.

But i just cant understand the thinking of NEPHET and the Givt to fight on with the same message. They keep saying they know people are fed up and tired of lockdown. Then show it. I find it infuriating how they clearly know people arent listening anymore yet instead of trying to find a practical solution to keep cases as low as possible while accepting the reality of the situation, they just parrot the same message 4/5/6 months later about not leaving the house/5km etc etc. Look outside your ****ing windows and join the real world. Your message has lost, re-evaluate and come back with something that might work because Level 5 will not anymore, people are done

Dubliners have been allowed to leave the county something like 5 of the last 180 days. And they just expect people will be able to deal with this stuff indefinitely without any hope offered?

And it's likely to be at least mid to late July before we get to level 2 so that will be Dubliners unable to leave their county for not far off 10 months at that stage. But sure other countries have restrictions too so it's perfectly acceptable apparently.

ArthurDayne

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I explained this all to you the other day using official data. Nothing has changed. It still applies.

**** it. I'll have one more go.
Do you know what EU country is leading the race in vaccinations?

Hungary. They bought up a load of Russian doses early on and are quite a bit ahead of most other countries.





Now by your logic, as Hungary have a significant proportion of their elderly population vaccinated they should be ale to open up and "live with the virus".
Unfortunately that's not the case at all. They've had a terrible time over the last 12 months, but never worse than right now.

They're now back in lockdown.

Hmm, I get your point here but I’m not sure if you’re applying much of a sense of nuance to this data. It seems like they only really started accelerating their vaccine rollout (relative to ours that is) in the last 2 weeks or so — and therefore these graphs might not provide a fair picture for maybe another couple of weeks or so and provided they maintain that trajectory of rollout. My understanding is that they are using Russian and Chinese vaccines too which have not been approved by the EU, so it will be interesting how the efficacy of those vaccines pans out. The efficacy of the vaccines being used elsewhere in Europe and further afield has been scientifically tested and data is promising in the real-world experience.

Like if we were to combine a face value reading of those charts with the point you seem to be trying to extract from them, you’d almost invariably have to be arguing that the vaccines aren’t worth a s***e (or at least the ones Hungary is using).

Windmill100000

Captain_Crash wrote: »

The Dunnes in Rathfarnham has half the isles blocked off, you can buy a jacket and nice T-shirt, and you can even browse the household section and buy clocks and cushions, but you can’t buy a pair of tracksuit bottoms or hoodie? It just doesn’t make sense! You can buy glasses and plates etc, but go across the road to home store and more and you can’t buy the very same items because covid...!

I get the logic of essential items but in practice is simply doesn’t work and just piles the same number of people into fewer shops and smaller spaces! Why do Homestore say you can’t buy a cup and saucer but Dunnes next door say you can? Does anyone even really know?

Maybe not all Dunnes are monitoring numbers. I've not seen mine jam-packed at all during lockdown.

Dealz is also open. It stocks books, homeware but also toiletries and food. I'm pretty sure its the "food" that has kept them open.

The HorsesMouth

batman_oh wrote: »

And it's likely to be at least mid to late July before we get to level 2 so that will be Dubliners unable to leave their county for not far off 10 months at that stage. But sure other countries have restrictions too so it's perfectly acceptable apparently.

Honestly..where do you get this from? You have no reason, belief or evidence to say we won't be in level 2 until mid to late July.

Busi_Girl08

Has there been any mention of lifting the rule on having to pay a booking deposit before viewing a house? I know some estate agents are talking about continuing with it either way but has there been any mention of it?

SAMTALK

Captain_Crash wrote: »

The Dunnes in Rathfarnham has half the isles blocked off, you can buy a jacket and nice T-shirt, and you can even browse the household section and buy clocks and cushions, but you can’t buy a pair of tracksuit bottoms or hoodie? It just doesn’t make sense! You can buy glasses and plates etc, but go across the road to home store and more and you can’t buy the very same items because covid...!

I get the logic of essential items but in practice is simply doesn’t work and just piles the same number of people into fewer shops and smaller spaces! Why do Homestore say you can’t buy a cup and saucer but Dunnes next door say you can? Does anyone even really know?

I agree with you, it doesnt make sense. I think Dunnes are chancing it at this stage.

If all retail was open it would certainly generate a lot of browsing and rambling, cause that's what a lot of people would do to get out of the house and do something

LameBeaver

copeyhagen wrote: »

whats the odds on the barbers opening in next 2 weeks? fairly low?!

i know most people i know have been getting it done in barbers houses lately, but i have been doing my own. not great by any stretch but does the job. dont want to do it now if they could open in april.

so the alternative is another home job or go barbers house.

Zero chance of that happening. You will be cutting your own hair for a long time to come, legally anyway.

Loafing Oaf

ArthurDayne wrote: »

Like if we were to combine a face value reading of those charts with the point you seem to be trying to extract from them, you’d almost invariably have to be arguing that the vaccines aren’t worth a s***e (or at least the ones Hungary is using).

Or that you need to have a much higher proportion of the population vaccinated than Hungary does for the vaccine to have a discernible effect on covid spread.

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Pretty pictures

Nice graphs.

It takes three weeks to build immunity after vaccination.

It takes people about 2-3 weeks to die from Covid.

Hungary and the rest of Europe are currently going through the B117 "spike" we saw in December/January.

Since Hungary's vaccination efforts picked up about three weeks ago, you would expect to start seeing a reduction in ICU admissions and deaths soon, though probably not to pre-B117 levels for some time.

Comparing Hungary to our B117 spike would be more appropriate, FYI, if you're interested in getting things straight.

TonyMaloney

darconio wrote: »

Thanks for the attempt, so can you confirm that according to you the only viable solution is level 5 and full lockdown until the whole population is vaccinated?
And once the whole population is vaccinated can you confirm there won't be a new strain that will render every effort up until that date futile?
In the meantime 99% of the population won't be affected by this strain or any strain, if not with non-existent or mild flu symptoms.

No, that's not my view at all. It's miles away.

I think NPHET, mindful of our crappy hospital capacity, are being very cautious. Perhaps a little too cautious.

For instance there's clearly a lot of people meeting up outside. I've broken that restriction twice in the last month, once meeting the folks in a park, and another having a few cans with a couple of old friends.
Now perhaps I'm projecting as I've broken that rule, but I think NPHET should probably accept that it's happening, and allow it so that they can put some shape on it - numbers of people, locations etc etc

I'd also like to see local restrictions brought in, but on a province rather than county level.

As for reopening, well I think we should be looking to Israel, the UAE, the UK and the US for cues on that.
I don't see us waiting until 80% of the adult population is vaccinated, never mind the entire population, before significant but gradual reopening of sectors happens.

Nobody can guarantee you that a strain won't come along to **** everything up, but that's what the travel restrictions and the mandatory quarantine are in place for.

As to your final claim that 99% of people will be unaffected by covid, well to date it's put almost 6% of all Irish cases in hospital, and the UK's ONS has 10% of all cases suffering with long covid.

The HorsesMouth

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Honestly..where do you get this from? You have no reason, belief or evidence to say we won't be in level 2 until mid to late July.

Yeaaaaah. Been hearing this for a year.

"You have no reason or evidence to say restrictions won't be lessened by [date]."

Said date passes.

Crickets.

Prediction.

"You have no reason or ev..."

It gets old.

titan18

LameBeaver wrote: »

Zero chance of that happening. You will be cutting your own hair for a long time to come, legally anyway.

Ya, just retarded really. Just makes it riskier as we all know barbers and hairdressers are making house calls or clients calling to their house.

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Now perhaps I'm projecting as I've broken that rule, but I think NPHET should probably accept that it's happening, and allow it so that they can put some shape on it - numbers of people, locations etc etc

They should drop the restrictions on meeting outdoors, because it will reduce the number of "secret" indoor meetings, for sure.

The "long covid" thing is odd. It's just post-viral syndrome and not that uncommon with any virus. I don't see why we need a new name.

JRant

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They should drop the restrictions on meeting outdoors, because it will reduce the number of "secret" indoor meetings, for sure.

The "long covid" thing is odd. It's just post-viral syndrome and not that uncommon with any virus. I don't see why we need a new name.

Oh, there's an entire new industry just waiting to get some of that tasty "long COVID" money rolling in.

Windmill100000

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They should drop the restrictions on meeting outdoors, because it will reduce the number of "secret" indoor meetings, for sure.

The "long covid" thing is odd. It's just post-viral syndrome and not that uncommon with any virus. I don't see why we need a new name.

I don't believe that at all. Yes, some people are meeting up secretly. Drop restrictions and almost all (physically able) will be out and about mixing.

TonyMaloney

ArthurDayne wrote: »

Hmm, I get your point here but I’m not sure if you’re applying much of a sense of nuance to this data. It seems like they only really started accelerating their vaccine rollout (relative to ours that is) in the last 2 weeks or so — and therefore these graphs might not provide a fair picture for maybe another couple of weeks or so and provided they maintain that trajectory of rollout. My understanding is that they are using Russian and Chinese vaccines too which have not been approved by the EU, so it will be interesting how the efficacy of those vaccines pans out. The efficacy of the vaccines being used elsewhere in Europe and further afield has been scientifically tested and data is promising in the real-world experience.

Like if we were to combine a face value reading of those charts with the point you seem to be trying to extract from them, you’d almost invariably have to be arguing that the vaccines aren’t worth a s***e (or at least the ones Hungary is using).

My argument wasn't that hungary's vaccines are ****e. My argument is that we are not ready to open up based on simply having vaxed the most elderly cohorts, and I used the EU country that was furthest along with their program as evidence.
Your point that they only overtook us quite recently is a fair one, but doesn't alter mine.

The country that is furthest along with with their program in Europe is not Hungary though. It's Serbia. And they got stuck in to it all quite early. They are hopefully seeing a bit of a vaccine effect on the deaths, but it's not great. Their hospitals are in bad shape too, and they've been back under what appears to be a fairly wishy-washy lockdown since the start of the month.

LameBeaver

SAMTALK wrote: »

I would imagine it's to stop browsing. Go to any clothes shop and you will have people rambling around just having a look.

Go do your grocery shopping, it's get what you need and out

Exactly. The fact that some people can`t understand this (or claim not to) is mind boggling.

Penfailed

Hooked wrote: »

Because... going on personal experience - many members of the Gardaí like to throw their weight about the place - Covid related or not...

It seems to be 'par for the course' at Covid-19 checkpoints! Certainly the ones I've been stopped at.

Every single time I've been stopped, the guards have been sound. So, by that rational, going on personal experience, no members of the Gardaí like to throw their weight around.

gozunda

See the UK is going for a tightening of its current travel restrictions

Health secretary Matt Hancock said the ban on leaving the UK without a reasonable excuse, included in new coronavirus laws coming into force next week, had not changed the road map plans for international travel.

He told Sky News the global travel taskforce would report its findings by the middle of April, with May 17 the earliest possible date in the road map for international travel without a reasonable excuse.

Hancock added: “Now, having said all of that, it is now too early to know where the global travel taskforce will come out and know what the decision will be for May 17.

“The reason for that is that we are seeing this third wave rising in some parts of Europe and we’re also seeing new variants.

“It is very important that we protect the progress that we have been able to make here in the UK

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/how-to-avoid-5000_uk_6059a290c5b6f12839d72a14?4de&utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral

Windmill100000

Windmill100000 wrote: »

I don't believe that at all. Yes, some people are meeting up secretly. Drop restrictions and almost all (physically able) will be out and about mixing.

Difference of opinion is fair enough.

Can you point me to the evidence you have that outdoor spread is a significant problem?