Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

DaSilva

robbiezero wrote: »

"Designed for gibbering simpletons" is what I said.

Boggles wrote: »

Exactly, so if people are obeying these rules they are effectively gibbering simpletons or weak minded and afraid?

No, he said designed, not obeyed by simpletons.
The restrictions are definitely done to guide those who cannot appropriately measure risk themselves.

Take the heavily discussed 5km rule here and all the scenarios people are pointing to to show its purpose. For me personally, this restriction is only a punitive measure as I am careful about this disease already. If I want to meet with people who are vulnerable I always go into complete lockdown myself and avoid all contact with others for at least 2 weeks. Due to the simplistic measures "designed for simpletons" I am unable to meet with some of them outside (due to being beyond 5km), but I am able to meet with others, despite the fact that if I simply followed the restrictions alone, I would be at greater risk as they do not state that I should completely isolate beforehand.

the kelt

Dickie10 wrote: »

Lads im no cheerleaader for NYPHET or government but the measures are working, hospitalizations just now begging to drop again as are deaths and ICU numbers , i think if we just hold the restrictions til May 1st llike i said a few times, then numbers in hospitaal and ICU will plummet. Forget about counting cases, we could have 500 cases a day in mid summer without any deaths and maybe only 10 -15 in ICU. in that case everything should be open, no pressure on health systems

Yet we continue to broadcast and uses cases as a barometer, every day.

To be honest i wouldnt have an issue if they said we are holding the current restrictions until after the May Bank Holiday and will review the data then.

But they need to communicate the data, they need to indicate what they are looking for and what levels they need to be at. Hospital numbers, icu numbers, R number, deaths etc and then they need to communicate what they plan to do, vaccination numbers and expectations etc.

The "arrah sure we'll see in a few weeks" approach is the biggest bloody issue at the moment

For example Denmark have said they are planning to have all over 50's vaccinated by the end of May so restrictsions to be gradually lifted on a 2 week review basis in April and May.

Ireland plan, "sure, em, arrah sure we'll see!"

Russman

lawred2 wrote: »

Well let's have your reasons as to why "it wouldn't work here" then...

Its an opinion, the nordics and indeed many countries are a simply different culture to us, neither better nor worse, just different. We imo have a way more laissez faire attitude to rules than many of our European counterparts.

I'd suggest that we were trusted with Level 3 in December and that didn't go great when people were let off the leash. People having 30 close contacts in two days wouldn't really earn much trust.
That's not to suggest I don't think we should be in level 3 shortly or that level 5 should be continued.

FintanMcluskey

Dickie10 wrote: »

Lads im no cheerleaader for NYPHET or government but the measures are working, hospitalizations just now begging to drop again as are deaths and ICU numbers , i think if we just hold the restrictions til May 1st llike i said a few times, then numbers in hospitaal and ICU will plummet. Forget about counting cases, we could have 500 cases a day in mid summer without any deaths and maybe only 10 -15 in ICU. in that case everything should be open, no pressure on health systems

Talk to you in June Dickie.

When we’re still in level 5 just in case

Riodej1578

Boggles wrote: »

It's factual information about the goals set out in this phase of reopening and which ones have been achieved.

Or would you prefer if we just call politicians and NPHET names?

Just putting NPHET and politicians in the same sentence as meeting goals set out doesn't sit right.

Unfortunately, too much damage has been done by them as it is.

Boggles

DaSilva wrote: »

If I want to meet with people who are vulnerable I always go into complete lockdown myself and avoid all contact with others for at least 2 weeks.

That's super, but you do know the majority of people can't actually do that?

Restriction are for population level not for every single different scenario that is unique to an individual.

uli84

Shops like Penneys etc have already been closed for seven of the last 12 months, Like seriously (?) is it really so much more dangerous to go to Penneys than to Aldi?

_Kaiser_

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

McConkey on his usual long Covid spiel on NT just now but rightly (and surprisingly) called out by Ciara for moving the goalposts - complete with loud sigh as she did so - and that the social contract wasn't to protect people from long covid, but to limit deaths and hospital overrun.

I wouldn't agree with her on many things but she's spot on here, as well as her earlier point that the daily obsession about case numbers (included media reporting in that) is only worrying people more and affecting mental health.

Fair play to her as well that she didn't give him the last word either.

Not only Ciara, I thought Micheal McDowell spoke very well in that segment.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

So everyone in the country who are trying to stick by the restrictions are simpletons?

Lol.

You're not exactly best placed to complain about broad, ridiculous generalisations :pac:

gozunda

the kelt wrote: »

Yep,

The funniest comparison with other countries is the one where "no point in comparing us to Sweden, we are too different etc etc"

And invariably a few posts later we get "but Brazil, look at Brazil, we could definitely be like them if we arent careful"

Yeah. But the most hilarious are where we get the 'whaaaa look at the UK rolling back all their restrictions (even where that's not the case ) because they're way ahead in vaccinations - We're not - but we should do what they're doing anyway"

Boggles

the kelt wrote: »

For example Denmark have said they are planning to have all over 50's vaccinated by the end of May so restrictsions to be gradually lifted on a 2 week review basis in April and May.

Primarily for those vaccinated.

That's a pertinent caveat.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0324/1205761-coronavirus-ireland/

Well-buried at the bottom:

The pandemic is likely to disrupt cancer care services for around two years overall, according to oncologist Professor Seamus O'Reilly.

Speaking on RTE's Morning Ireland, he said given that Ireland is behind the UK in its vaccination programme, the disruption to services here is going to continue for longer than the nine months projected by the HSE.

Prof O'Reilly said the National Cancer Institute last year modelled what a six-month disruption to breast and colorectal cancer care would lead to, and this model indicated an increased mortality for the next ten years.

robfowler78

uli84 wrote: »

Shops like Penneys etc have already been closed for seven of the last 12 months, Like seriously (?) is it really so much more dangerous to go to Penneys than to Aldi?

I understand why shops and other places need to be lockdown and others don’t in fact it makes sense. It’s the length of the lockdown that is the issue and the slow reopening. It creates demand which leads to crowds etc.

Telling people at Xmas that there would be a lockdown in Jan was madness it just made people take risks that I believe they might not have taken only for that message to be out there.

robfowler78

robfowler78 wrote: »

Telling people at Xmas that there would be a lockdown in Jan was madness it just made people take risks that I believe they might not have taken only for that message to be out there.

European countries are currently going through the B117 wave we had in December/January, regardless of their prior level of restrictions. There's no clear evidence that the relaxation of restrictions around Christmas caused the wave, just a lot of "Of course it did! Look at the numbers coming down now!"

There seems to be a lot of naive wishful thinking that we can just be good enough and follow the rules enough and the virus will leave us alone. But that's not how viruses work. The harder we lock down, the more evolutionary pressure we put on the virus to mutate into a more transmissible variant.

growleaves

Oft, in the Stilly Night
by Thomas Moore

Oft, in the stilly night,
Ere slumber’s chain has bound me,
Fond memory brings the light
Of other days around me;
The smiles, the tears,
Of boyhood’s years,
The words of love then spoken;
The eyes that shone,
Now dimm’d and gone,
The cheerful hearts now broken!
Thus, in the stilly night,
Ere slumber’s chain hath bound me,
Sad memory brings the light
Of other days around me.

When I remember all
The friends, so link’d together,
I’ve seen around me fall,
Like leaves in wintry weather;
I feel like one
Who treads alone
Some banquet-hall deserted,
Whose lights are fled,
Whose garlands dead,
And all but he departed!
Thus, in the stilly night,
Ere slumber’s chain has bound me,
Sad memory brings the light
Of other days around me.

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

European countries are currently going through the B117 wave we had in December/January, regardless of their prior level of restrictions. There's no clear evidence that the relaxation of restrictions around Christmas caused the wave, just a lot of "Of course it did! Look at the numbers coming down now!"

There seems to be a lot of naive wishful thinking that we can just be good enough and follow the rules enough and the virus will leave us alone. But that's not how viruses work. The harder we lock down, the more evolutionary pressure we put on the virus to mutate into a more transmissible variant.

There's a mountain of evidence actually

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

European countries are currently going through the B117 wave we had in December/January, regardless of their prior level of restrictions. There's no clear evidence that the relaxation of restrictions around Christmas caused the wave, just a lot of "Of course it did! Look at the numbers coming down now!"

There seems to be a lot of naive wishful thinking that we can just be good enough and follow the rules enough and the virus will leave us alone. But that's not how viruses work. The harder we lock down, the more evolutionary pressure we put on the virus to mutate into a more transmissible variant.

Its like taking credit for an eclipse.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0324/1205761-coronavirus-ireland/

Well-buried at the bottom:

This has been an exercise in destroying tomorrow to make today slightly more pleasant.

The day the last restriction lifts (and the media focus on the next crisis that requires absolutely zero journalistic skills) is when the fire is out and the embers of the economic and health ruins of the nation can be sifted through to try to access the damage.

Damage, Ireland brought upon itself, while on a one nation crusade to ensure it topped the table for economic, educational and health service postponement throughout this crisis

DaSilva

Boggles wrote: »

That's super, but you do know the majority of people can't actually do that?

Restriction are for population level not for every single different scenario that is unique to an individual.

I don't want to get into a back and forth argument over semantics, but I know not everybody can do that, I didn't say they could.

I was just defending the description of the restrictions being for those cannot appropriately measure risk themselves.

Just think of it like this: If everybody in the country had the education and understanding of NPHET about virology, epidemiology and medicine, do you think a 5km legal restriction would be necessary? No, right? Because people with that understanding would know what constitutes a risk and what doesn't without having to be herded with simplistic rules.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

The harder we lock down, the more evolutionary pressure we put on the virus to mutate into a more transmissible variant.

Huh?

I'm pretty sure the variants of interest have come from places where the virus has been let run rampant.

newport2

the kelt wrote: »

But they need to communicate the data, they need to indicate what they are looking for and what levels they need to be at. Hospital numbers, icu numbers, R number, deaths etc and then they need to communicate what they plan to do, vaccination numbers and expectations etc.

The "arrah sure we'll see in a few weeks" approach is the biggest bloody issue at the moment

This. I think the lockdown would be much easier to work with if goals were set and clear data was communicated, eg to move to level 4, we need to decrease to 3.5% positivity in tests conducted, to < 200 in hospital and < 50 in ICU, or something to that effect. Cases/deaths per day is inconsistent and misleading a lot of the time.

I believe that would also increase pressure on people to comply with the measures. If we were moving steadily towards meeting a goal that everyone knew would move us to a more relaxed level of restrictions, people would be called out for breaching. I don't think they are now, because we are just drifting along towards vague unset targets and nobody has any data to indicate where it eases except unreliable leaks from the government.

Boggles

DaSilva wrote: »

Just think of it like this: If everybody in the country had the education and understanding of NPHET about virology, epidemiology and medicine, do you think a 5km legal restriction would be necessary? No, right? Because people with that understanding would know what constitutes a risk and what doesn't without having to be herded with simplistic rules.

The rules and reasoning are simplistic. But people are still fúcking up the interpretation.

There is a stay at home order, everyone who can apart from the defined reasons should stay at home.

The 5km is the distance is for exercise.

So when someone again and again bleats out 'I can only drive 5KM', short of NPHET getting the crayons what more can they do?

TonyMaloney

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Damage, Ireland brought upon itself, while on a one nation crusade to ensure it topped the table for economic, educational and health service postponement throughout this crisis

Jesus, Fintan, it's been a year. Restrictions protect health care systems and help avoid postponement of treatment.

You can argue that they're not worth it economically if you like, but you can't say that they're not done to protect health systems. This is pretty basic stuff.

growleaves

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

This has been an exercise in destroying tomorrow to make today slightly more pleasant.

The day the last restriction lifts (and the media focus on the next crisis that requires absolutely zero journalistic skills) is when the fire is out and the embers of the economic and health ruins of the nation can be sifted through to try to access the damage.

Damage, Ireland brought upon itself, while on a one nation crusade to ensure it topped the table for economic, educational and health service postponement throughout this crisis

Yep. But you can't force a high standard of living on people. If people want to destroy their prosperity because of a scientific theory then that's that.

Meanwhile lots of financial scams are running in conjunction with the restrictions. Even more than in 2007 it seems to me. The wealthy know how to make money from chaos.

Prices are rock-bottom and interest rates are rock bottom - allowing the wealthy to buy up the world essentially. Farmland being bought up all over the United States and other places by tech oligarchs.

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

Its like taking credit for an eclipse.

This thread would claim the orbit of the moon contributes nothing to the occurrence of a solar eclipse, sure isn't the moon tiny.

growleaves

Boggles wrote: »

Huh?

I'm pretty sure the variants of interest have come from places where the virus has been let run rampant.

I'm not saying you're wrong but do we actually know that?

South Africa had one of the harshest lockdowns in the world.

So did UK. There is political noise about their only starting a week later than other countries but nonetheless it was and is very harsh.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

This thread would claim the orbit of the moon contributes nothing to the occurrence of a solar eclipse, sure isn't the moon tiny.

There is many, yourself included, would agree if NPHET said it later today

BlaktainPicard

Deleted User wrote: »

Lol.

You're not exactly best placed to complain about broad, ridiculous generalisations :pac:

What are you worried about Stu ? since you are immune to captain tripps and all ...

BlaktainPicard

Deleted User wrote: »

This thread would claim the orbit of the moon contributes nothing to the occurrence of a solar eclipse, sure isn't the moon tiny.

disingenuous drivel

colly10

Anyone know if they'll call the minor changes being made in April level 4 or will they continue to call them level 5?

Waiting for the passport office to open so I can get my son a passport, taking a one way flight out till things settle here or there's an actual plan like "X number in hospital means level Y and level Y means these things are open"