The GOP Primary 2024

StringerBell

Rjd2 wrote: »

To play Devil's advocate the numbers with Hispanics especially males were encouraging, so I do think the party itself is aware its over reliant on a shrinking demo and of course the boomers of 2021 are more liberal than boomers of previous years.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/us/politics/latino-voters-democrats.html

So I do think Hispanics will be targeted even more so than previously so not a huge shock to see someone like De Santis one of the favs for 2024.

Trump actually slightly toned down the xenophobia compared to 2016 so even he got the memo.

Was it all Hispanics? Or Florida Hispanics?

Biden apparently had a problem with Hispanic voters also and there would be another couple of factors I'd want to take into account there but I guess it would be better to compare the trend between 2012 -2016 - 2020 and then 2024 and you will have a decent sample size to identify the trends in the voting block over time.

Rjd2

StringerBell wrote: »

Was it all Hispanics? Or Florida Hispanics?

Biden apparently had a problem with Hispanic voters also and there would be another couple of factors I'd want to take into account there but I guess it would be better to compare the trend between 2012 -2016 - 2020 and then 2024 and you will have a decent sample size to identify the trends in the voting block over time.

Of course, Il try and dig out a recent article which went into depth.

Their is no such thing as a perfect candidate, Biden may not have done as well some would have liked with minorities but ultimately he was the perfect candidate when it came to more centerist college educated white voters.

Regarding Florida Hispanics v the rest,,,I dunno maybe Jorge Masvidal going all Trump may have been a factor?:pac:

But crap jokes aside, Hispanics are as complex as any demographic, Florida is an issue right now for the Dems but somewhere like Arizona its a much more positive story.

Itssoeasy

StringerBell wrote: »

Was it all Hispanics? Or Florida Hispanics?

Biden apparently had a problem with Hispanic voters also and there would be another couple of factors I'd want to take into account there but I guess it would be better to compare the trend between 2012 -2016 - 2020 and then 2024 and you will have a decent sample size to identify the trends in the voting block over time.

It was the one thing all campaign that the trump campaign actually got some head way on with the “joe Biden is a socialist” taking point. Now, the fact that Biden isn’t a socialist as many would see it isn’t the point, but socialism is a four letter word in Florida Hispanics and for understandable reasons. Compared to 2016 where trump got all this rubbish to stick to Hillary Clinton(although it was easier and Hillary Clinton wasn’t that great a candidate) the trump campaign bar this one group were able to get anything to stick.

Rjd2

I don't think they broke through with the Biden is a socialist line, because even if you are watching Fox 24/7 that's far fetched.

I think what they were able to do was tie the likes of AOC close to him and the "defund the police" slogan was a gift from the Gods for the GOP.

I know they didn't want to actually defund the police, but once you have to explain a slogan for Joe Bloggs you know you have ****ed up.

Biden as a candidate they haven't been able to land any sort of attack on him , the initial "Sleepy Joe" line failed because so many people are exhausted by Trump so a more laid back President for the masses was very appealing, and when you have to change your line of attack from "Biden is a socialist" to "he is a puppet of socialists" its a problem.


When it comes to 2022, the likes of AOC and Pelosi will be used as the targets, doubt they will hardly bother with Biden tbh which itself is telling.

Itssoeasy

Rjd2 wrote: »

I don't think they broke through with the Biden is a socialist line, because even if you are watching Fox 24/7 that's far fetched.

I think what they were able to do was tie the likes of AOC close to him and the "defund the police" slogan was a gift from the Gods for the GOP.

I know they didn't want to actually defund the police, but once you have to explain a slogan for Joe Bloggs you know you have ****ed up.

Biden as a candidate they haven't been able to land any sort of attack on him , the initial "Sleepy Joe" line failed because so many people are exhausted by Trump so a more laid back President for the masses was very appealing, and when you have to change your line of attack from "Biden is a socialist" to "he is a puppet of socialists" its a problem.


When it comes to 2022, the likes of AOC and Pelosi will be used as the targets, doubt they will hardly bother with Biden tbh which itself is telling.

It was puppet of socialists. You’re right and it did work but didn’t affect the election result.

That’s one issue I do have with AOC and those progressives, because while I may agree broadly with their positions, I do find the way they convey those positions to be haphazard and as you say, if you’re explaining you’re in trouble. It’s clear there are issues with policing in America and you’d have to blind to not see it, but using phrases like defund or in some cases disband(which is just so stupid) the police was just an awful stance to take. And as you say we know they don’t want to defund the police but perception matters.

theguzman

Trump Snr will be elected and Tucker Carlson as the VP.

CrabRevolution

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It was puppet of socialists. You’re right and it did work but didn’t affect the election result.

That’s one issue I do have with AOC and those progressives, because while I may agree broadly with their positions, I do find the way they convey those positions to be haphazard and as you say, if you’re explaining you’re in trouble. It’s clear there are issues with policing in America and you’d have to blind to not see it, but using phrases like defund or in some cases disband(which is just so stupid) the police was just an awful stance to take. And as you say we know they don’t want to defund the police but perception matters.

If I didn't know better I'd have thought "Defund the Police" was a Springtime for Hitler name, in that they named it so badly because they actually want it to fail. It really is a name that clearly came straight from a college environment or a fringe grouping, that should have been repackaged and given a more palatable title when adopted by more mainstream politicians. Short of "Fund the criminals" they really couldn't have chosen a name that would turn people off it quicker and make it easier for their opponents to fight it.

Tell me how

CrabRevolution wrote: »

If I didn't know better I'd have thought "Defund the Police" was a Springtime for Hitler name, in that they named it so badly because they actually want it to fail. It really is a name that clearly came straight from a college environment or a fringe grouping, that should have been repackaged and given a more palatable title when adopted by more mainstream politicians. Short of "Fund the criminals" they really couldn't have chosen a name that would turn people off it quicker and make it easier for their opponents to fight it.

'Defund the police' in the way the term came in to the public consciousness last summer grew from placards at protests more so than it did as some sort of strategic policy from progressives within the Democratic party.

This article shows just how complex the concept is and while various commentators and policy people have been aware of it and have been involved in the discussions of advantages and disadvantages around the concept for years, the term as it was used throughout last year certainly wasn't part of a Democratic PR drive. Many progressives who ended up discussing it publicly were asked about the phrase rather than they introducing it or launching it or anything like that.

rossie1977

Trump will win and lose multiple states he won last general election in 2024 like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina.

Nody

rossie1977 wrote: »

Trump will win and lose multiple states he won last general election in 2024 like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina.

I think Florida is lost to the Democrats due to the Cuba hispanics who'll simply see Democrats = Castro basically. A few decades from now and that may change once the generation who fled and their hardcore children has started to mellow out.

Brussels Sprout

I think Ohio is a lost cause to the Democrats too if Trump is the nominee. It's very difficult to see Trump winning any of the states that he lost in November though unless the Republicans engage in large scale voter suppression - they have clearly come to that conclusion too since they are attempting exactly that in pretty much every state that they control.

Brussels Sprout

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I think Ohio is a lost cause to the Democrats too if Trump is the nominee. It's very difficult to see Trump winning any of the states that he lost in November though unless the Republicans engage in large scale voter suppression - they have clearly come to that conclusion too since they are attempting exactly that in pretty much every state that they control.

They'll do everything they can but it won't take much.
Anything except a booming economic recovery from Covid and the GOP will sweep back in in 4 years with just about anyone as the candidate. Even with a good recovery I can see people turning back to the GOP. Tends to be the pattern, have the Democrats turn things around, get the GOP to mess things up again, rinse and repeat.

Brian?

Bobtheman wrote: »

I think Mike Pence will easily get the nomination for three main reasons

He has a good base in the Republican Party (Evangelicals)
He can position himself as Pro and Anti Trump. Trump only turned on Pence when he didn't do something that was constitutional--stop results being certified.
Obviously, a lot of this will depend on Trump's influence. I see it declining.
While I think Trump will run-he won't get the nomination. More **** on him will come out about him the next few years. He will be damaged goods by 2024.

I don’t give Pence a chance at all. He won’t get the Trump vote, he “betrayed” Trump. He may get the evangelical vote, but that’s likely to split in the primaries as they’re all go botherers. He definitely doesn’t appeal to the middle once the general comes around.

The only way I can see Pence get the nomination is if Biden has a 70% approval rating and no one has a hope of beating him. Then Pence can be sent out as a sacrificial lamb.

Inquitus

Don't underestimate Tucker Carlsen if he decides to run, he is one of the main conduits speaking to Trump's base, he has the highest watched show on Cable and can use that as a platform. If he decides to run in the primaries, I think he could be dangerous....

Quin_Dub

Inquitus wrote: »

Don't underestimate Tucker Carlsen if he decides to run, he is one of the main conduits speaking to Trump's base, he has the highest watched show on Cable and can use that as a platform. If he decides to run in the primaries, I think he could be dangerous....

The second he declares (if he does , which he won't) he'll have to resign from Fox immediately.

Geraldo mentioned on air a few weeks ago that he was considering a Senate run and he was called into the office and told that he'd have to resign immediately if he was running.