Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

pauldry

One thing I very much dont like is this 5K limit.

Instead of being able to get to the beach for a walk which is 10k away Im sitting at home picking up germs. Why is Ireland the only country in the world that has this? Why dont we do the night curfews like other countries?

Is it coz that Lehane buck on the news who stands outside all time time would be out of a job?

MerlinSouthDub

eagle eye wrote: »

A big increase in referrals is a concern.

Not it if it doesn't turn into a big increase in cases....

Lucas Hood

Benimar wrote: »

Tomorrow is an important day I feel. Some of Monday’s referrals may be tested Tuesday. Results got today, which are the numbers reported tomorrow.

Hopefully people heeded the early warning on the 11th and have pulled back a bit. Might stop the increase.

I would be worried if the positivity rate was increasing but it is staying the same generally.

Messi19

pauldry wrote: »

Yesterday had 150 more swabs than cases so could be the guts of 700 cases today.

Wednesday is often bump day

redmgar

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I very much like this stat

Still though, June/July can't come soon enough

Is the the amount of tests irrelevant?
The only number that's is of any consequence is the positive cases?

Rebelbrowser

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

If you have symptoms they want you under care from your doctor.

If you don't have a doctor you need to get one.

Not show up at a test centre and self treat.

Makes sense but still think most people will be surprised by that. They will need to publicly explain the thinking behind these pop up centres to get people to go

RebelButtMunch

redmgar wrote: »

Is the the amount of tests irrelevant?
The only number that's is of any consequence is the positive cases?

No, the more you test the more you find. So testing lots not only saves lives, but also gives us an idea of the positivity rate, and the more we do that, the more we can be confidant of that rate.

TobyHolmes

predictions for 5th April restrictions?

Level 3 county wide lockdown with hospitality opened?

how likely?

timsey tiger

pauldry wrote: »

Yesterday had 150 more swabs than cases so could be the guts of 700 cases today.

Could be the guts of 850 today.

ShineOn7

redmgar wrote: »

The only number that's is of any consequence is the positive cases?

Some would argue the only number that's is of any consequence is the positivity rate

And - in some ways - they'd have a point tbh

But sure, who the fcuk knows at this stage

Normal One

I reckon that some overly cautious hay-fever sufferers are ringing their doc who in turn sends them for a test. That's where the increase in tests and referrals is coming from.

redmgar

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

No, the more you test the more you find. So testing lots not only saves lives, but also gives us an idea of the positivity rate, and the more we do that, the more we can be confidant of that rate.

Fair enough.
Realistically, the only thing ending restrictions is the vaccine. We are just going to plod on for the next couple of months under levels 4/5 until a mix of the summer and the vaccine brings back normality.

MrMusician18

Normal One wrote: »

I reckon that some overly cautious hay-fever sufferers are ringing their doc who in turn sends them for a test. That's where the increase in tests and referrals is coming from.

The question is that resulting in the detection of near asymptomatic cases that would've been missed?

Jim_Hodge

TobyHolmes wrote: »

predictions for 5th April restrictions?

Level 3 county wide lockdown with hospitality opened?

how likely?

Very unlikely.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Makes sense but still think most people will be surprised by that. They eill need to publicly explain the thinking behind these pop up centres to get people to go

Yeah. I'm not sure myself what the goal is for these centres.

People in high risk areas can get a test if they want one and they don't normally qualify for testing.

I'm not sure who they want to use these.

I'd only get it if I felt I was a contact that slipped through the cracks. For example there's I share an office with someone. We are socially distanced enough and have screens not to be contacts but 8 hours a day fairly close to each other and breathing the same air.

If he tests positive I would get a test to check the situation.

Benimar

TobyHolmes wrote: »

predictions for 5th April restrictions?

Level 3 county wide lockdown with hospitality opened?

how likely?

Not likely at all.

Level 5 adjusted for Construction, underage sport and movement on the 5km will be it I'd imagine.

titan18

I'd love to know unique people diagnosed with covid rather than cases. Be interesting to see are people testing positive multiple times cos the PCR test is still picking up old covid in them from months ago. With the mass testing of certain places, someone could be coming back positive multiple times.

Theboinkmaster

TobyHolmes wrote: »

predictions for 5th April restrictions?

Level 3 county wide lockdown with hospitality opened?

how likely?

Level 3 5th April? Zero chance.

I hope for optics they call it level 4 and announced:

- 5km limit gone
- constructions re-open
- outdoor sports re-open
- people can meet outdoors
- resume click and collect

I think that would be enough to get people motivated that we're making progress and also keep numbers to a manageable level.

Then 5th May you'd consider level 3 with outdoor dining and opening up non-essential retail again.

CIARAN_BOYLE

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Some would argue the only number that's is of any consequence is the positivity rate

And - in some ways - they'd have a point tbh

But sure, who the fcuk knows at this stage

Anyone judging based on positivity rate should have a better positivity rate in mind than the one we get.

If there's 3,000 unprompted tests in these new walk in test centres there might be 1 positive and the national positivity rate would be dragged down.

Our positivty rate is now 0.4% less even though nothing real has changed. Therefore let's open the pubs.

RebelButtMunch

TobyHolmes wrote: »

predictions for 5th April restrictions?

Level 3 county wide lockdown with hospitality opened?

how likely?

No idea, but what I would like is for the schools to fully reopen (after Easter break). That would give my child back some semblance of normal life and society.

After that, I'd like open air dining. Mandatory masks in indoor spaces. Retail click and collect. No travel restrictions within Ireland.

Give that a couple more weeks and then kids sports, contact training, but in Pods.

copeyhagen

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Level 3 5th April? Zero chance.

I hope for optics they call it level 4 and announced:

- 5km limit gone
- constructions re-open
- outdoor sports re-open
- people can meet outdoors
- resume click and collect

I think that would be enough to get people motivated that we're making progress and also keep numbers to a manageable level.

Then 5th May you'd consider level 3 with outdoor dining and opening up non-essential retail again.

that would make way too much sense.. cafes and retail should be open NOW

covidrelease

Benimar wrote: »

Hopefully people heeded the early warning on the 11th and have pulled back a bit. Might stop the increase.

I hope people gave them the proverbial 2 fingers and went out and enjoyed themselves rather than being mentally beaten into submission with the endless cycle of whinging, moaning and negativity.

Benimar

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Anyone judging based on positivity rate should have a better positivity rate in mind than the one we get.

If there's 3,000 unprompted tests in these new walk in test centres there might be 1 positive and the national positivity rate would be dragged down.

Our positivty rate is now 0.4% less even though nothing real has changed. Therefore let's open the pubs.

Yes, this is the issue. If todays tests are based on referrals then 3.4% isn't bad in context. However, if there was mass testing of nursing homes accounting for a couple of thousand tests and a handful of cases, the 'real' rate among people being referred is higher.

A split between referrals and serial tests would be nice info to have.

Eod100

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

If you have symptoms they want you under care from your doctor.

If you don't have a doctor you need to get one.

Not show up at a test centre and self treat.

Could be, just wonder how many will go if they dont have symptoms.

muddypuppy

TobyHolmes wrote: »

predictions for 5th April restrictions?

Level 3 county wide lockdown with hospitality opened?

how likely?

Not a chance in hell. I personally expect Level 4+ (Level 4 with outdoor hospitality closed), and a rolling easing of the restrictions (so maybe 5k limit on the 5th of April, then outdoor gatherings/click and collect a couple of weeks later)

TobyHolmes

muddypuppy wrote: »

Not a chance in hell. I personally expect Level 4+ (Level 4 with outdoor hospitality closed), and a rolling easing of the restrictions (so maybe 5k limit on the 5th of April, then outdoor

gatherings/click and collect a couple of weeks later)

when do you think we will have level 3?

TobyHolmes

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

No idea, but what I would like is for the schools to fully reopen (after Easter break). That would give my child back some semblance of normal life and society.

After that, I'd like open air dining. Mandatory masks in indoor spaces. Retail click and collect. No travel restrictions within Ireland.

Give that a couple more weeks and then kids sports, contact training, but in Pods.

this country is so frustrating. the politicians cant make proper sensible decisions

RebelButtMunch

TobyHolmes wrote: »

when do you think we will have level 3?

I think the idea's of strict definitions of levels is gone out the window. You'd be better off wondering about specifics like 'when is retail/sport/not working from home happening. -that's just my2cent

titan18

titan18 wrote: »

I'd love to know unique people diagnosed with covid rather than cases. Be interesting to see are people testing positive multiple times cos the PCR test is still picking up old covid in them from months ago. With the mass testing of certain places, someone could be coming back positive multiple times.

There is a protocol around that

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/outbreakmanagementguidance/PCR%20weak%20results%20guidance.pdf

In general, someone who has had a previous positive test should not be retested within 12
weeks unless they develop symptoms. This statement encompasses people who are identified as close contacts of COVID-19 cases but who are noted to have tested positive in the previous
12 weeks

muddypuppy

TobyHolmes wrote: »

when do you think we will have level 3?

If I was a betting man, I would say middle/end of May, but that's mostly a gut feeling. If we get another surge it might be later. If vaccinations ramp up and there is a drastic drop in deaths/hospitalizations it might be earlier.
Some things will probably open earlier than other things, like outdoor dining is probably going to open earlier than gyms.

I also noticed that Level 4 as currently published on the gov website doesn't allow outdoor "social gathering" but allow outdoor "organized gathering" up to 15 people, so I expect that to be changed and to have social gathering of 2 households allowed.

TobyHolmes

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

I think the idea's of strict definitions of levels is gone out the window. You'd be better off wondering about specifics like 'when is retail/sport/not working from home happening. -that's just my2cent

basically when can I check into a hotel and get a break from the same 4 walls thats what i want to know. even if its the hotel across the street.

TobyHolmes

muddypuppy wrote: »

If I was a betting man, I would say middle/end of May, but that's mostly a gut feeling. If we get another surge it might be later. If vaccinations ramp up and there is a drastic drop in deaths/hospitalizations it might be earlier.
Some things will probably open earlier than other things, like outdoor dining is probably going to open earlier than gyms.

I also noticed that Level 4 as currently published on the gov website doesn't allow outdoor "social gathering" but allow outdoor "organized gathering" up to 15 people, so I expect that to be changed and to have social gathering of 2 households allowed.

may sounds so far away

Theboinkmaster

muddypuppy wrote: »

I
I also noticed that Level 4 as currently published on the gov website doesn't allow outdoor "social gathering" but allow outdoor "organized gathering" up to 15 people, so I expect that to be changed and to have social gathering of 2 households allowed.

They need to update the current level 1-5 document.

titan18

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is a protocol around that

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/outbreakmanagementguidance/PCR%20weak%20results%20guidance.pdf

Fair enough. Hopefully they're doing that. Just seems like we'd end up with duplicate positive cases otherwise.

CIARAN_BOYLE

TobyHolmes wrote: »

basically when can I check into a hotel and get a break from the same 4 walls thats what i want to know. even if its the hotel across the street.

Late May or early June when a sufficient amount of the population is vaccinated to drive transmission down or when the population buys into restrictions and actually drives cases down.

CIARAN_BOYLE

titan18 wrote: »

Fair enough. Hopefully they're doing that. Just seems like we'd end up with duplicate positive cases otherwise.

The old dead virus only really shows up as a 'positive' under an excessive number of cycles which gets retested.

Eod100

Normal One wrote: »

I reckon that some overly cautious hay-fever sufferers are ringing their doc who in turn sends them for a test. That's where the increase in tests and referrals is coming from.

Get hay-fever myself but hadnt noticed much pollen yet but could be the start alright

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

A big increase in referrals is a concern.

I was referred for test Sunday - negative result 25 hours after referral. Pretty much knew it wasn't covid but had some of the symptoms and kids in school so thought it best to get tested rather than send kids in and hope. I also know of multiple people with some covid like symptoms who tested negative recently. There is another virus doing the rounds which is undoubtedly bumping up the referrals.

If you look at the seasonal influenza sentinel testing data you will see that positive rate for adenovirus has gone from 0% in week 8 and 9 to 6.9% in week 10, admittedly off low numbers of tests, but there is definitely something

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/influenza/seasonalinfluenza/surveillance/influenzasurveillancereports/20202021season/

Idjit

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Yeah. I'm not sure myself what the goal is for these centres.

I'd only get it if I felt I was a contact that slipped through the cracks. For example there's I share an office with someone. We are socially distanced enough and have screens not to be contacts but 8 hours a day fairly close to each other and breathing the same air.

If he tests positive I would get a test to check the situation.

This is my exact situation and why I'm going to attend my local walk in testing centre. I was in my office with a colleague on Friday who started feeling ill and has since tested positive, HSE don't consider me a close contact because I wasn't within two meters of him for more than 15 minutes... But we were breathing the same air all day.

I rang my gp to arrange a test for my own peace of mind and was basically told if the HSE don't consider me a close contact and I have no symptoms then they can't help me.

So for situations like these I'm grateful they've arranged the pop up centres.

is_that_so

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Yeah. I'm not sure myself what the goal is for these centres.

People in high risk areas can get a test if they want one and they don't normally qualify for testing.

I'm not sure who they want to use these.

I'd only get it if I felt I was a contact that slipped through the cracks. For example there's I share an office with someone. We are socially distanced enough and have screens not to be contacts but 8 hours a day fairly close to each other and breathing the same air.

If he tests positive I would get a test to check the situation.

These centres seem like an attempt to scoop up more cases quickly and to try to figure out why these areas remain high. It's a good move IMO and we haven't had a new tool since they started weekly testing in certain sectors. If rapid tests are shown to be up to it, you'd expect them to play a bigger part too.

Lucas Hood

Idjit wrote: »

This is my exact situation and why I'm going to attend my local walk in testing centre. I was in my office with a colleague on Friday who started feeling ill and has since tested positive, HSE don't consider me a close contact because I wasn't within two meters of him for more than 15 minutes... But we were breathing the same air all day.

I rang my gp to arrange a test for my own peace of mind and was basically told if the HSE don't consider me a close contact and I have no symptoms then they can't help me.

So for situations like these I'm grateful they've arranged the pop up centres.

I'll be getting a test myself in tallaght just to be safe later this week.

But in that circumference of yours I'd have been ringing back saying you now and symptoms no harm in knowing one or the other.

covidrelease

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Late May or early June when a sufficient amount of the population is vaccinated to drive transmission down or when the population buys into restrictions and actually drives cases down.

What kind of a ridiculous statement is that?

When there was ~8000 cases a day people responded and yesterday there was just 371 cases.

How do you think that happened?

Messi19

In relation to the walk in test centres and needing to be 16 or older does that mean parents can't take the kids?

TobyHolmes

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Late May or early June when a sufficient amount of the population is vaccinated to drive transmission down or when the population buys into restrictions and actually drives cases down.

sorry - what has everyone been doing for the past year.

stop blaming the population for bad policy making
look at US - some of the population are complete ijiots but there the country is over 100 million people vaccinated and people have curvews as opposed to lockdown.
meanwhile here in ireland - us ijiots cant even go more than 5km and we are being told its becuase you are not behaving
spare me the catholic pious guilt we are all supposed to have

is_that_so

covidrelease wrote: »

What kind of a ridiculous statement is that?

When there was ~8000 cases a day people responded and yesterday there was just 371 cases.

How do you think that happened?

Where we stand now is that they are very pleased with that effort but are equally reluctant to agree to relaxing restrictions off these current numbers. At the same time they may well accept that they have no option to agree to changes with compliance falling, hence the ongoing "do a little better" barracking.

CIARAN_BOYLE

TobyHolmes wrote: »

sorry - what has everyone been doing for the past year.

stop blaming the population for bad policy making
look at US - some of the population are complete ijiots but there the country is over 100 million people vaccinated and people have curvews as opposed to lockdown.
meanwhile here in ireland - us ijiots cant even go more than 5km and we are being told its becuase you are not behaving
spare me the catholic pious guilt we are all supposed to have

Cases are rising over the last few weeks. If people were buying into the restrictions I would imagine that they wouldnt have stalled.

I know it's hard to buy in for so long but if we dont I can't see there being change.

Mobility and interactions has definitely increased since January. At that time average close contacts for each case was less than 2. As of last Thursday it was just less than 3.

Cases over the last 7 days are up on the previous 7 days.

covidrelease

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Cases are rising over the last few weeks. If people were buying into the restrictions I would imagine that they wouldnt have stalled.

I know it's hard to buy in for so long but if we dont I can't see there being change.

Mobility and interactions has definitely increased since January. At that time average close contacts for each case was less than 2. As of last Thursday it was just less than 3.

Cases over the last 7 days are up on the previous 7 days.

No reason not to allow an easing 3 weeks ago, construction could have gone back, like the rest of the world, click and collect non essential retail, own county travel etc.

Unfortunately, due to the incompetence of the government and NPHET they failed to accept the effort people made and have gone and pissed everybody off.

If cases are rising its due to incompetence.

TobyHolmes

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Cases are rising over the last few weeks. If people were buying into the restrictions I would imagine that they wouldnt have stalled.

I know it's hard to buy in for so long but if we dont I can't see there being change.

Mobility and interactions has definitely increased since January. At that time average close contacts for each case was less than 2. As of last Thursday it was just less than 3.

Cases over the last 7 days are up on the previous 7 days.

reality is this is the best they are going to get from people so they (the government who we have hired to represent our collective interests) have to come up with an option other than keeping us locked up until we are all vaccinated. as at this rate it will be another year. and i guarantee we will have lost half of our minds by then.

covidrelease

TobyHolmes wrote: »

reality is this is the best they are going to get from people so they (the government who we have hired to represent our collective interests) have to come up with an option other than keeping us locked up until we are all vaccinated. as at this rate it will be another year. and i guarantee we will have lost half of our minds by then.

Sadly we are dealing with incompetence on a grand scale, with no understanding of human nature.

iamwhoiam

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Late May or early June when a sufficient amount of the population is vaccinated to drive transmission down or when the population buys into restrictions and actually drives cases down.

Buys in ? We have bought in for a full year now and waiting for the Government to buy in to their part . So no the public wont buy in for much longer and honestly can anyone blame them ?