Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

Plumbthedepths

Can't see that Israeli Covid study being very popular here.

dominatinMC

plodder wrote: »

The vaccines are still effective against it, albeit at a reduced level. But, that is self-evidently not the same thing as saying it's 'equivalent to a new virus'.

The reduction in efficacy will be reflected in a higher level of hospitalisations than expected. So I don't see why we can't have a target based on level of hospitalisations.

Are you sure about this? From what I've seen, the vaccines still prevent serious illness to a very good extent. Yes, the efficacy is slightly reduced (from a really high level) but that refers to protection against minor symptoms. Too many obsesssing over efficacy numbers when the metric that matters is hospitalisations

is_that_so

Faugheen wrote: »

But what has happened is that close contacts in a household has gone from 1 in 5 before the new variant to 1 in 3 among those with B1.1.7 as Glynn pointed out last night. That’s a stark increase and points to a much higher transmissibility. With our R number hovering from 0.6 to 0.8 for the last few weeks, there is method to Philip Nolan’s modelling as well especially since it hasn’t been dropping as B1.1.7 became more dominant.

Yeah that just makes it the dominant strain and yet cases are falling. It's still not that claimed 70%, which was a wild guess in the first place.

I have learnt to take what NPHET say with a pinch of salt. They may not want zero COVID but they do want to get close to zero risk and they use the science to support that.

Back in October Glynn approved Level 3 on a Thursday but by Sunday NHPET were at Level 5 and as much as like Nolan, the numbers have been way off at times, due as he says himself to the very nature of modelling itself. What they have is a risk-averse Taoiseach, who will follow to the letter what they say. Now he won't even pin them to indicators and we are now back to the perception that NPHET are running the country.

Boggerman12

Leo on again and no hope being given.it’s sad.what’s the pint of living anymore.

Faugheen

Faugheen wrote: »

But what has happened is that close contacts in a household has gone from 1 in 5 before the new variant to 1 in 3 among those with B1.1.7 as Glynn pointed out last night. That’s a stark increase and points to a much higher transmissibility. With our R number hovering from 0.6 to 0.8 for the last few weeks, there is method to Philip Nolan’s modelling as well especially since it hasn’t been dropping as B1.1.7 became more dominant.

Before the new variant everyone could socialise and were spending less time at home, after the new variant they couldn't and are all couped up together for longer periods

harr

I won’t get into the details of the U.K. variant as I don’t know enough about it . But MM speech last night definitely had the desired effect in frightening the life out of Some people.
My mam rang me last night , a grandparent who like many others hasn’t seen some grand kids In months or seen her friends. Was very upset and was wondering if it pointless now going for her vaccine in a few week when it doesn’t work against the new virus and also very upset at the talk of further lock downs next winter even after the government said this current lockdown must be the last.

big syke

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Can't see that Israeli Covid study being very popular here.

Its not peer reviewed, too small, etc etc?

JRant

dominatinMC wrote: »

Then explain how the narrative has gone from "we need to keep strain off the hospital system" to "zero covid". That seems like a big change in direction to me.

Which has been said ad nauseam since the start of this. Now, I understand it is very hard to predict the future in a pandemic, but these seem like empty, hollow words when you have Fergal Bowers tweeting about potential restrictions next Winter. Final lockdown, eh? :rolleyes:

The plan for using restrictions during the coming Winter is actually in the 60 page document they released yesterday. There was no exit strategy given yesterday, which indicates they don't actually have one.

harr

harr wrote: »

I won’t get into the details of the U.K. variant as I don’t know enough about it . But MM speech last night definitely had the desired effect in frightening the life out of Some people.
My mam rang me last night , a grandparent who like many others hasn’t seen some grand kids In months or seen her friends. Was very upset and was wondering if it pointless now going for her vaccine in a few week when it doesn’t work against the new virus and also very upset at the talk of further lock downs next winter even after the government said this current lockdown must be the last.

Mine is the same. She won’t take a vaccine now after what those muppets Staines and McConkey said on Matt Cooper the other night about the vaccines not working

They have blood on their hands IMO, and are completely blind to it

dominatinMC

JRant wrote: »

The plan for using restrictions during the coming Winter is actually in the 60 page document they released yesterday. There was no exit strategy given yesterday, which indicates they don't actually have one.

If that's the case, that's truly depressing.

plodder

dominatinMC wrote: »

Are you sure about this? From what I've seen, the vaccines still prevent serious illness to a very good extent. Yes, the efficacy is slightly reduced (from a really high level) but that refers to protection against minor symptoms. Too many obsesssing over efficacy numbers when the metric that matters is hospitalisations

That's exactly my point. For targets, what we should care about is the number of people going into hospital, not R numbers, nor even number of cases at the end of the day (though they are an argument for being cautious when re-opening).

The reduction in efficacy could end up being quite small.

All I'm saying is that variants may have an effect, but they are not an argument for abandoning hard targets.

Plumbthedepths

harr wrote: »

I won’t get into the details of the U.K. variant as I don’t know enough about it . But MM speech last night definitely had the desired effect in frightening the life out of Some people.
My mam rang me last night , a grandparent who like many others hasn’t seen some grand kids In months or seen her friends. Was very upset and was wondering if it pointless now going for her vaccine in a few week when it doesn’t work against the new virus and also very upset at the talk of further lock downs next winter even after the government said this current lockdown must be the last.

The whole point of last night was for Martin to clean up the fückery Martin and his minions have made of communications with the public instead he introduced something which is an outright lie and further muddied the waters.
The opening up of the country has been handed over to Nphet. I would suggest expecting being able to go on a holiday this summer in Ireland may lead to disappointment. You might get to walk down the bikini section in Penny's at the end of August.

timmyntc

big syke wrote: »

Its not peer reviewed, too small, etc etc?

No its massive in scope, its just that the outcome is quite positive - seems some posters wish to downplay the effectiveness of vaccines

is_that_so

plodder wrote: »

Seems to me the situation is either:

a) NPHET have target metrics but they don't want to share them in case they have to be changed, or

b) they don't have target metrics and they don't know how we are going to get out of this

There was a sense back in October that they were forced into suggesting 100 cases a day and will not do that again. I'm more inclined to look at hospitals than cases. The concern though is that community spread may still play a far bigger part in the decision making and a scenario of 0 COVID hospital cases but 1,000 daily cases could still see them recommend that restrictions be maintained.

shinzon

People screaming for a plan when everyone knows you cant plan where a pandemic is concerned is a pointless exercise. I firmly believe that the only plan they have is get people vaccinated and hopefully that sorts the whole thing out and we get back to normality.

The government cant trust the populace, give an inch and theyll take a 1000 miles, so until theres a critical mass vaccinated this will be the normal.

Shin

Faugheen

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Before the new variant everyone could socialise and were spending less time at home, after the new variant they couldn't and are all couped up together for longer periods

Yes that is true, but we truly don’t know when the new variant actually arrived here. I think the first cases were confirmed around Christmas time but it could have been earlier than that (not based on any scientific data, just me looking at potentials so you can take that statement with a pinch of salt).

That’s also a fault in the contact tracing system. You could have contracted the virus in the pub but if you don’t show symptoms for 3 or more days afterwards, then who you were with that day makes no difference. Contact tracing purely focuses on who you may have passed it on to in the preceding two days rather than where you may have been infected.

podgeandrodge

........."THOUSANDS of healthcare staff who answered the HSE's 'Be on Call for Ireland' initiative will have to go through the application process again if they want to work as Covid-19 vaccinators.

Information provided by medical workers who applied to the initiative almost a year ago and were not recruited to work in Covid-related roles is now deemed out of date and the Garda vetting forms submitted have expired."

Sofa King Great

Faugheen wrote: »

One out of every 5 close contacts in a home setting we’re getting infected with the virus before B1.1.7

Since B1.1.7, it’s now one in every 3 close contacts getting infected.

Ronan Glynn said it last night.

Could this also be to do with more people spending longer at home (schools/workplaces/sports all closed) and less ventilation in the home due to the fact that it is winter?

Doctor Jimbob

Faugheen wrote: »

And this is an equivalent to a new virus such as its behaviour, do you not see that to be the case?.

You tried the very same points last night when I put it to you why this was like a new virus and you came back with ‘why are schools opening then?’ And you eventually admitted you hadn’t been listening or paying attention at all to what NPHET has been saying (and that’s fair enough, I only watch the briefings because their communications are far better than the government on this).

Ronan Glynn spoke about the potential of new variants in August and he was laughed out of the room by many on here. Now those same people, following a Christmas where a new, more transmissive and more deadly variant of the virus took hold, are sneering at anyone who tries to make it sound like the big deal that it actually is.

Fact of the matter is nearly everything Ronan Glynn said would happen if we let our guard down has happened, and the government takes a lot of responsibility for that especially around travel into the country.

No, I don't. It's a new variant of the same virus. We have had several of those since this all began without any talk of calling it a new virus.

I have no idea why you're bringing Ronan Glynn talking about new variants into it, it just comes across as an attempt to undermine my point by referring to the fact I haven't been keeping up with the briefings lately to be honest. I'm not denying that the new variant exists. What Ronan Gylnn said sounds entirely reasonable. Did he at any point refer to it as 'like a new virus'?

plodder

Faugheen wrote: »

It’s the former I reckon. They’ve spoken before about anticipatory behaviour among people if it’s getting close to certain metrics.

They’re right as well, but I wouldn’t criticise the public too much on that because it’s only human nature.

So, there's no plan then except for - open the schools and hope for the best, and then just tune into NPHET every day for more information.

Or there is a plan, but we can't be told, because we'll lose the run of ourselves

mohawk

Faugheen wrote: »

He said it is ‘equivalent to a new virus’, not that it actually is a new virus, which I think is a very accurate reflection on B117.

It’s not accurate in relation to the B117 variant. Plenty of data out there to suggest the vaccines will work against it. Are Healthcare workers getting Covid in same numbers for example? Given how widespread the variant is its very positive that we aren’t seeing lots of doctors saying they are getting patients that previously had a a different variant getting the B117 variant.

They choose their words carefully when writing a speech. ‘Equivalent to a new virus’ was trying to convey a message and the message sounds like we are practically back to square one.

MM would want to look at his communication and that of his cabinet because if they keep going many will feel like there is no point to vaccines.

Turtwig

podgeandrodge wrote: »

........."THOUSANDS of healthcare staff who answered the HSE's 'Be on Call for Ireland' initiative will have to go through the application process again if they want to work as Covid-19 vaccinators.

Information provided by medical workers who applied to the initiative almost a year ago and were not recruited to work in Covid-related roles is now deemed out of date and the Garda vetting forms submitted have expired."

That shouldn't be surprising. If I recall correctly after 6 months of any recruitment campaign you have to dump all personal data other than a candidates contact details. Even this you require a justification for keeping.

That's my understanding anyway of the rules pre GDPR. Open to correction on that and on how it's now.

is_that_so

shinzon wrote: »

People screaming for a plan when everyone knows you cant plan where a pandemic is concerned is a pointless exercise. I firmly believe that the only plan they have is get people vaccinated and hopefully that sorts the whole thing out and we get back to normality.

The government cant trust the populace, give an inch and theyll take a 1000 miles, so until theres a critical mass vaccinated this will be the normal.

Shin

Yeah but you need a plan of how to vaccinate, not really happening just yet despite the impressive Martin percentages and it's months away. You're right about the populace but they are human and lowering compliance is a risk from now on in the face of no real end to this.

timmyntc

shinzon wrote: »

People screaming for a plan when everyone knows you cant plan where a pandemic is concerned is a pointless exercise. I firmly believe that the only plan they have is get people vaccinated and hopefully that sorts the whole thing out and we get back to normality.

The government cant trust the populace, give an inch and theyll take a 1000 miles, so until theres a critical mass vaccinated this will be the normal.

Shin

You're totally right Shin - we actively should not plan at all because a pandemic is subject to change. Just as people never make outdoor plans because the weather is changeable and they might get wet :rolleyes:

God give me strength - they should do more planning not less! And in case things dont go to plan, you have a plan B!

CalamariFritti

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

This is exactly wAl Ryan will run with it and it will be all over the media now.

Al the while there isn't even any evidence that its even more contagious. Its like Chinese Whispers. Things become true when enough people just repeat it often enough.

We're back to weapons of mass destruction.

timmyntc

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Al the while there isn't even any evidence that its even more contagious. Its like Chinese Whispers. Things become true when enough people just repeat it often enough.

We're back to weapons of mass destruction.

Someone should really report Ryan's appearance on the radio to the BAI.

shinzon

timmyntc wrote: »

You're totally right Shin - we actively should not plan at all because a pandemic is subject to change. Just as people never make outdoor plans because the weather is changeable and they might get wet :rolleyes:

God give me strength - they should do more planning not less! And in case things dont go to plan, you have a plan B!

Just asking here but were 11 months in dont you think at this stage there would have been a plan b c d e or even f.

In the governments thinking vaccination=normality, thats it thats the plan always has been not sure what magic wand people think the government has.

Shin

AdamD

shinzon wrote: »

People screaming for a plan when everyone knows you cant plan where a pandemic is concerned is a pointless exercise. I firmly believe that the only plan they have is get people vaccinated and hopefully that sorts the whole thing out and we get back to normality.

The government cant trust the populace, give an inch and theyll take a 1000 miles, so until theres a critical mass vaccinated this will be the normal.

Shin

This is such a disgraceful attitude. The role of government is to earn the trust of the people, not the other way round. They serve the people of the country, not the other way round.

Maxface

The 'plan' appears to be we will not be making any major changes to/from level 5 until April 5th and it's unlikely we will be making any major changes after that. Some plan allright.

shinzon

AdamD wrote: »

This is such a disgraceful attitude

Not really the populace went ape**** at Christmas pretty much sums up whats happening now with lockdown

Shin