Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

ninebeanrows

OMG Claire Byrne is going with the 'new' variant in LA!

Some nice evidence of the vaccine impact

timmyntc

seamus wrote: »

They're all interconnected. A rise in cases leads shortly to a rise in hospital numbers, leads shortly to a rise in ICU numbers.

If you're monitoring hospital numbers to make decisions, then by the time you've detected a rise in hospital numbers it's already too late.

This is not a million miles off various concepts that exist in software engineering; the best way to ensure that a critical target is being met is to monitor everything downstream of that target. If you only monitor the critical target, then you will only detect when you miss that target. If you monitor the downstream metrics, you can take action to prevent missing the target.

In this case the "critical" metric is as you say, the hospital numbers. The downstream metrics are the whole pile of data we've been looking at; positivity rates, GP referrals, close contact numbers, mobility data, etc.

Yes but you have to recognise the impact vaccines will have on hospitalisations - the conversion rate from cases to hospitalisations will start to trend lower as more vaccines are administered, particularly in elderly & vulnerable groups.

As the most at risk groups are vaccinated we wont see anything like the previous surges in hospital admissions, cases will start to become largely irrelevant/it will take a much higher threshold of cases to start to put strain on the health service.

CoronaBlocker

lawred2 wrote: »

and about 2 responses down

https://twitter.com/davecoghlan/status/1364491425187041282?s=20

And I believe Claire Byrne is about to cover the Californian dose now too... they really should pull it now - but of course they won't/

plodder

seamus wrote: »

They're all interconnected. A rise in cases leads shortly to a rise in hospital numbers, leads shortly to a rise in ICU numbers.
If you're monitoring hospital numbers to make decisions, then by the time you've detected a rise in hospital numbers it's already too late.

But, the interconnection is different pre vaccine as compared with post vaccine. It is likely that an increase in cases after we are mostly vaccinated, will result in a much smaller increase in hospitalisations.

This is not a million miles off various concepts that exist in software engineering; the best way to ensure that a critical target is being met is to monitor everything downstream of that target. If you only monitor the critical target, then you will only detect when you miss that target. If you monitor the downstream metrics, you can take action to prevent missing the target.

In this case the "critical" metric is as you say, the hospital numbers. The downstream metrics are the whole pile of data we've been looking at; positivity rates, GP referrals, close contact numbers, mobility data, etc.

I agree with that. I never said you stop testing for the virus because come next Winter we really don't know what is going to happen (unless we stay locked down until then). There will be an increase in cases definitely and maybe some kind of limited measures will be needed. If the vaccines did their job, then after a week maybe we can relax again.

D.Q

lawred2 wrote: »

and about 2 responses down

https://twitter.com/davecoghlan/status/1364491425187041282?s=20

Even the way he phrases it sounds like a presenter in a second rate gameshow. "meet the new strain muahahaha"

RTE are a joke, all the variant talk is so exhausting. I know they are of concern, but everything is so so hypothetical at this time that its a waste of energy thinking about it. Its clear as day this is their new angle for engagement and clicks but I can't help but get sucked in.

Just when I thought I was out.. they pull me back in

Boggerman12

Clare Byrne once again bigging up bs from Tomas Ryan about the so called California variety and her contributor slapping it down and calling out Ryan.but she having none of it.

MethMartin

shinzon wrote: »

Not really the populace went ape**** at Christmas pretty much sums up whats happening now with lockdown

Shin

Firstly, I personally don't know anyone who went 'ape sh*t' over Xmas. Most people just visited their families, and went for dinner etc. Like normally things humans do!

But even if some people did go 'ape sh*t' - have you ever thought about their reasoning? We have the longest lockdown in Europe, and everyone knew that the lockdown was going to start again right after Xmas.

Happydays2020

Boggerman12 wrote: »

Clare Byrne once again bigging up bs from Tomas Ryan about the so called California variety and her contributor slapping it down and calling out Ryan.but she having none of it.

Best to start complaints to RTÉ editorial board and the regulator.

Nermal

Turtwig wrote: »

The health service did not cope. This is the most dangerous misconception of them all. It'll be months, if not years, before it's fully recovered.

So what?

We spend over €20BN on health in a normal year, way more than we should given the age profile of our population.

Our response to this crisis effectively added €50BN to that.

How much do you want us to spend?

Lockdowners think our resources are infinite.

speckle

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Some nice evidence of the vaccine impact

would some of that impact be shared with the high numbers of HCWs that already had the virus.. ie so its a combination of natural and vaccine immunity? And can it be at roughly percentaged for both?

Jinglejangle69

Pat Kenny laying into the minister about our slow approach to everthing including quarantine.

Really is a joke how slow we are.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Cork2021 wrote: »

RTE journalist scaremongering who would’ve guessed!!

https://twitter.com/boucherhayes/status/1364487026448478215?s=21

There is justifiable concern about variants.

This is one reason I suspect that people who receive the Astra Zenaca vaccine will be offered a "booster" when mass vaccination completes and that j&j will end up being a two shot vaccine.

The efficacy from Pfizer and Moderna are so good that reduced efficacy will still be an awesome vaccine.

We will get over this whatever variants come.

Scuid Mhór

Can anyone give me an ETA on when cohort 7 will be vaccinated?

Doctor Jimbob

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

There is justifiable concern about variants.

This is one reason I suspect that people who receive the Astra Zenaca vaccine will be offered a "booster" when mass vaccination completes and that j&j will end up being a two shot vaccine.

The efficacy from Pfizer and Moderna are so good that reduced efficacy will still be an awesome vaccine.

We will get over this

Concern about variants is justifiable.

Heralding every variant that appears as more dangerous than the last is not.

timmyntc

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

There is justifiable concern about variants.

This is one reason I suspect that people who receive the Astra Zenaca vaccine will be offered a "booster" when mass vaccination completes and that j&j will end up being a two shot vaccine.

The efficacy from Pfizer and Moderna are so good that reduced efficacy will still be an awesome vaccine.

We will get over this whatever variants come.

Concern is fine - but misinformation and scaremongering is unacceptable.

is_that_so

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Pat Kenny laying into the minister about our slow approach to everthing including quarantine.

Really is a joke how slow we are.

Cutting edge Kenny, eh? Who's the minister?

is_that_so

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

Can anyone give me an ETA on when cohort 7 will be vaccinated?

Probably April/May now with the switch.

Scuid Mhór

is_that_so wrote: »

Probably April/May now with the switch.

Thanks! So you reckon that is earlier than it would have been otherwise?

is_that_so

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

Thanks! So you reckon that is earlier than it would have been otherwise?

Well, with the promised 1m+ vaccines a month from April, including hopefully J&J, it seems like the kind of timeline.

Knex*

RTE are akin to the likes of Buzzfeed and their, '5 shocking things living in your home that you never knew about", type crap.

A failing, loss making business who are absolutely desperate for clicks and engagement. They have lost any commitment they may previously have had to sensible, rational and unbiased journalism, and instead look to feed solely off of fear and sensationalism.

They have massively damaged their reputation as a news broadcaster in the last 12 months, and I hope when all is said and done, that the public doesn't forget the unwarranted levels of anxiety and hysteria they fed into Irish homes.

mloc123

Boggerman12 wrote: »

Clare Byrne once again bigging up bs from Tomas Ryan about the so called California variety and her contributor slapping it down and calling out Ryan.but she having none of it.

How will RTE survive after Covid? They have litterally lived off it for a year now...

News almost 100% dedicated to it every day.
Current affairs programs almost always dedicated to it.
Prime time investigates just live in covid wards now?
Even their "light entertainment" late late show has been covid misery porn for a year now

ninebeanrows

mloc123 wrote: »

How will RTE survice after Covid? They have litterally lived off it for a year now...

News almost 100% dedicated to it every day.
Current affairs programs almost always dedicated to it.
Prime time investigates just live in covid wards now?
Even their "light entertainment" late late show has been covid misery porn for a year now

Without Trump and COVID lots of media outlets will really struggle so expect them to cling onto COVID doom until the bitter end.

Sad that most of our citizens live RTE TV and radio so really they will be living in doom for a long time.

Charles Babbage

is_that_so wrote: »

Cutting edge Kenny, eh? Who's the minister?

Charlie McConalogue, not one of the main men.
However Kenny as spot on, the present tardy passing of legislation for quarantine is one of the most striking examples of laziness on the part of the government. This should have been done last March in case of need.

is_that_so

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Charlie McConalogue, not one of the main men.
However Kenny as spot on, the present tardy passing of legislation for quarantine is one of the most striking examples of laziness on the part of the government. This should have been done last March in case of need.

FG were not in favour of quarantine so it was never going to happen. The argument at present is getting it right. If they rushed it Kenny would be on a minister demanding to know why.

mloc123

mloc123 wrote: »

How will RTE survive after Covid? They have litterally lived off it for a year now...

News almost 100% dedicated to it every day.
Current affairs programs almost always dedicated to it.
Prime time investigates just live in covid wards now?
Even their "light entertainment" late late show has been covid misery porn for a year now

what normally happens to parasites when the host dies?

Actually they remind me of a mold that actually becomes a slug just to move to the top of the pile for a new vantage point and best available food source.. yep that's RTE!!

pjohnson

Just saw that the beautician who made her publicity stunt yesterday has now started up a gofundme.

What a surprise. The whole stunt was merely to start grifting.

is_that_so

pjohnson wrote: »

Just saw that the beautician who made her publicity stunt yesterday has now started up a gofundme.

What a surprise. The whole stunt was merely to start grifting.

Yep, grifting to feed her family.

zuutroy

Hopefully a positive in all of this will be the end of RTE. Outside of the website and RTE Gold I haven't gone near their programming in 6 months.

harr

pjohnson wrote: »

Just saw that the beautician who made her publicity stunt yesterday has now started up a gofundme.

What a surprise. The whole stunt was merely to start grifting.

She lost all credibility when we seen Ben Gilroy hanging around her yesterday and that other mad one Dee Wall .
If she wanted public support they aren’t the ones to get it for you. Letting herself be used by those gob****es.