Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

hmmm

is_that_so wrote: »

I disagree on the truth thing BTW, especially if it is no changes till May. Restrictions that people begin to ignore are really not worth the paper they are written on and there is no truth that anyone can produce about vaccines apart from we're not getting any this week.

What would you do if you were in their shoes?

If the figures start going up, and you want people to go back to where they were in January/February in terms of contacts, you can't start talking about easing restrictions. You can't even hint at it I think.

Natterjack from Kerry

ArthurDayne wrote: »

the rights of Irish people to move freely in their own country.
The travel restrictions are a fundamental undermining of constitutional rights.

Whence this right you speak of ?

In what way ?

Natterjack from Kerry

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

So the UK government has urged its citizens not to book foreign holidays amid fears of new stains that can evade the vaccine.

Is that it so?

Is is going to be like this forever?

Years and years of new strains and restrictions.

Yes, thats right. Decades, Centuries even. Until the end of time. Correct.

is_that_so

hmmm wrote: »

What would you do if you were in their shoes?

If the figures start going up, and you want people to go back to where they were in January/February in terms of contacts, you can't start talking about easing restrictions. You can't even hint at it I think.

Ease some things. I agree on the resumption of construction and outdoor meetings, 5km out to 20km preferably, but adjusted nonetheless. That's all, other things can come at intervals after that. Cases are going to rise anyway but hospitalisations will be a far better indicator. They really can't rely on people to respect these restrictions until May.

RGS

hmmm wrote: »

The government went with the "will of the people" at Christmas and made an absolute pigs ear of it.

Christmas was a mess created by NPHET who demanded level 5 in October, the day holohan returned to work, even though the rest of NPHET 2 days earlier were happy with level 3.

We went into level 5 in October and got a minor release for 3 weeks in December, with the promise we would be back in level 5 in January.

It was hinted that October level 5 was needed to have a meaningful Christmas. The government knew that they could not retain level 5 for the entirety of December so tried, IMO, to ease restrictions in a controlled way to try and keep some control, but messed it up.

But government is about making decisions based on information and evidence available. Just because you took decision A and the outcome was Z, does not mean making decision A again will result in decision Z again especially as the factors and evidence now are different. We have vaccines now which we didnt have in December.
Infections among our HCWS has dropped significantly since vaccination, which tallies with the info from the UK.

We are in a different and better place than last december and that must be factored into the government decision making but it appears we are ignoring the evidence.

Natterjack from Kerry

Boggerman12 wrote: »

People are already mixing and meeting up

So making it doubly impossible to have any relaxations of restriction from Apr 5th. The compliant must pay for the sins of the non compliant.

eagle eye

Gael23 wrote:

Went to visit my vaccinated grandparents yesterday. Not one checkpoint on the 30 minute drive each way

Is there many cases in that county?

CIARAN_BOYLE

RGS wrote: »

Christmas was a mess created by NPHET who demanded level 5 in October, the day holohan returned to work, even though the rest of NPHET 2 days earlier were happy with level 3.

Its not like Nphet didn't advise increasing restrictions previously.

The Thursday recommendation that you call happy to remain at level 3 was more along the line of

Given that we have already reccommended raised restrictions and you have rejected our advice we don't see sufficient new evidence that additional restrictions are needed that we would expect you to review your decision. Therefore we do not reccommend increased restrictions at this time.

Tony then came in on Sunday with the boys said increased restrictions weeks ago. You ignored them. They said the position hadn't changed on Thursday. Well Thursdays numbers were crap, Fridays numbers were crap and Saturdays numbers were crap. The situation has only gotten worse.

ArthurDayne

hmmm wrote: »

What would you do if you were in their shoes?

If the figures start going up, and you want people to go back to where they were in January/February in terms of contacts, you can't start talking about easing restrictions. You can't even hint at it I think.

I think there does need to be some recognition of the nature of Christmas though. Even in a normal year people are mixing and piling into shops, dinners, houses etc much more than they do at any other time of the year.
Part of the frustration is that the government is constantly using the Christmas break as a means of justifying the ongoing severity of the restrictions when there is very reasonable grounds for saying that giving people a phased bit of leeway is not necessarily the same as just opening everything at what is by far the most sociable (and most of it done indoors in cold weather) time of the year. It is also not beyond the realms of reason to question whether having a 6 week lockdown prior to December actually fuelled people’s desire to make the most of what everyone presumed would be a small window of freedom.

But the government seems too caught up in the almost zero-risk tolerance assumption that the nature of how people behave during Christmas would directly translate to this time of year too. Every time the risk tolerance goes up though, people pretend to be surprised by cases rising, the media goes mad, lockdown is employed again — and then lockdown is invariably hailed as the saviour. So reopening measures are applied and are never really given a chance to develop.

Qiaonasen

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

So the UK government has urged its citizens not to book foreign holidays amid fears of new stains that can evade the vaccine.

Is that it so?

Is is going to be like this forever?

Years and years of new strains and restrictions.

Quite likely looking at restrictions for the next few years. The more we mix the more likely we get a problematic variant.
For some context. Historially many virus pandemics have lasted 2-3 years. Others have lasted a decade or two. We just have to wait and see. Either way we just have to get over it. It's an act of nature.

Also the whole of Europe is only now getting the UK variant so it's gonna be a hell of a summer on the continent.

is_that_so

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Its not like Nphet didn't advise increasing restrictions previously.

The Thursday recommendation that you call happy to remain at level 3 was more along the line of

Given that we have already reccommended raised restrictions and you have rejected our advice we don't see sufficient new evidence that additional restrictions are needed that we would expect you to review your decision. Therefore we do not reccommend increased restrictions at this time.

Tony then came in on Sunday with the boys said increased restrictions weeks ago. You ignored them. They said the position hadn't changed on Thursday. Well Thursdays numbers were crap, Fridays numbers were crap and Saturdays numbers were crap. The situation has only gotten worse.

But what Tony didn't tell Stephen was that Level 5 was on the table and they blindsided the government with a letter that would be leaked without hesitation. They lost a lot of brownie points in some quarters over all of that and it led directly to the Cabinet COVID sub-committee.

hmmm

ArthurDayne wrote: »

there is very reasonable grounds for saying that giving people a phased bit of leeway is not necessarily the same as just opening everything at what is by far the most sociable (and most of it done indoors in cold weather) time of the year.

I'd have agreed with you up to about a week ago, but the fall in cases seems to have stalled and we have just sent nearly a million kids back into schools. It looks obvious to me that we are only about to head in one direction (hopefully I'm wrong).

Eventually the vaccines will allow us outrun this, but I don't see what room the government has to maneuver. We were in a better place back in Christmas, they relaxed measures while there was a clear fall in the number of cases.

I think some outdoor recreation should never have been banned/blocked (golf, hiking, tennis etc.), but even there I realise there were problems (e.g. car-pooling, indoor gatherings).

gozunda

ArthurDayne wrote: »

You call it rubbish but you then do precisely the very thing I touched on in my post — you move the debate to the question of whether the travel restrictions are justified or not. I specifically said that this was not the point being contested, I was contesting your attempts to dress up the travel restrictions as being not that bad despite the fact that they are an unprecedented level of restriction on the ability of Irish people to move freely in their own country.

So I would remind you that in the course of this conversation you’ve gone from saying that the restrictions are not a travel restriction at all (which is completely wrong) to now moving the goalposts to a different debate and calling my post rubbish.

You said in an earlier post that you were tired of ‘endless rubbish’ on this thread. But if you want high-quality discussion, you have to build it on an a foundation of good faith. What is the point in trying to debate with someone on the proportionality and justifiability of the travel restrictions if they are trying to argue that they are hardly restrictions at all?

You might check -there was no movement
of the discussion simply a statement of fact about what the 5km restriction entails. It was your comment that was involved in some quite spectacular goalpost relocation maneuvers. Up to and including bringing in the British army (that was the 'rubbish' bit I referred to btw) and positing that a temporary 5km restriction being - according to your argument a "fundamental undermining of constitutional rights".


You can check if you like but I never discussed 'justifiable' - you did when you speculated on my opinions on that issue

ArthurDayne wrote:

You might believe that this infringement is justifiable or proportionate or whatever 

If your looking for that type of discussion you're in the wrong forum imho. Thanks all the same.

ArthurDayne

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Whence this right you speak of ?

In what way ?

Hi Natterjack, don’t believe I’ve interacted with you on here before.

The right to free movement within the State is an unenumerated right under the Irish Constitution — meaning that it is not mentioned explicitly in the Constitution but is nonetheless recognised by the Irish courts as being a constitutional right flowing from Article 40. Unenumerated rights have the same weight as explicit rights in Irish constitutional law. This particular constitutional right was recognised in the very important Irish Supreme Court case of Ryan v Attorney General [1965] 1 I.R. 294. If you google that casename and citation you should be able to find the case — let me know if you can’t find it.

Like all rights, it is subject to qualifications and must co-exist and be counter-balanced with other rights (such as we are seeing in the Covid crisis, where the imposition of restrictions impinging on the constitutional right to move freely within the State are seen as necessary because of the public health crisis). However, restrictions on rights even for valid or understandable reasons must be proportionate.

It is this question of proportionality where the debate lies — not in the existence of the constitutional right itself or the fact it is being impinged. There just seem to be one or two posters trying to give a “no big deal” impression about the travel restrictions and I just think this is not a correct or honest basis on which to have the debate about the proportionality of the measures.

Locotastic

is_that_so wrote: »

Ease some things. I agree on the resumption of construction and outdoor meetings, 5km out to 20km preferably, but adjusted nonetheless. That's all, other things can come at intervals after that. Cases are going to rise anyway but hospitalisations will be a far better indicator. They really can't rely on people to respect these restrictions until May.

You didn't hear it from me but all of the above already happening. People won't view it as any relaxation as there are quite a few doing these. Along with outdoor training sessions and non essential shops being 'open'.

Just seeing the type of traffic on the roads every morning would indicate that construction is back to almost normal levels. Where I am anyway.

Society will decide how long these restrictions will stay in place, and they are already turning against them through individual behaviours, I mean it's completely impossible to heavily enforce any of these restrictions on a large scale.

Boggerman12

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

So making it doubly impossible to have any relaxations of restriction from Apr 5th. The compliant must pay for the sins of the non compliant.

There isn’t going to be much relaxing of the lockdown because of one man.the most useless Taoiseach we ever had in Martin.nphet knew he’s crap and have him by the short and curlys.

Gael23

Locotastic wrote: »

I haven't met a checkpoint since May and I'm in and out of Dublin 3/4 times a week.

There’s often one on the quay in Dublin just after Houston station

Gael23

eagle eye wrote: »

Is there many cases in that county?

There was 30 yesterday, It went crazy just before Christmas, a little before the whole country did

Locotastic

Gael23 wrote: »

There was 30 yesterday, It went crazy just before Christmas, a little before the whole country did

Interesting, just checked and we've had total of 35 cases in my county over the past fortnight :eek: just shows why there should be differing levels of restrictions regionally, for those who want to follow them anyway.

In other news, quarantine starting from next week https://www.thejournal.ie/mandatory-quarantine-4-5387798-Mar2021/

prunudo

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

https://extra.ie/2021/03/21/must-see/taoiseach-is-out-of-touch-say-ministers-as-new-poll-reveals-increasing-number-turning-against-lockdown



Interesting feedback from the cabinet.

Just going back to this post from earlier. I can't believe the cabinet haven't discussed or even been in a position to discuss the level of restrictions.
One of the most important era's in governance, certaianly since the banking crisis and they don't see fit to discuss the evolving situation or how the public compliance is going. And these are the so called leaders of the country, what a shambles.

irishguy1983

Qiaonasen wrote: »

Quite likely looking at restrictions for the next few years. The more we mix the more likely we get a problematic variant.
For some context. Historially many virus pandemics have lasted 2-3 years. Others have lasted a decade or two. We just have to wait and see. Either way we just have to get over it. It's an act of nature.

Also the whole of Europe is only now getting the UK variant so it's gonna be a hell of a summer on the continent.

A decade or two????!!! Please elaborate!!

is_that_so

Locotastic wrote: »

You didn't hear it from me but all of the above already happening. People won't view it as any relaxation as there are quite a few doing these. Along with outdoor training sessions and non essential shops being 'open'.

Just seeing the type of traffic on the roads every morning would indicate that construction is back to almost normal levels. Where I am anyway.

Society will decide how long these restrictions will stay in place, and they are already turning against them through individual behaviours, I mean it's completely impossible to heavily enforce any of these restrictions on a large scale.

Making things official along with a map of indicators on when other changes could occur should steady things a bit. If it only seems to be 3-4 weeks away enough people will resist. The big challenge for government will be when we get the so-called vulnerable done. If that's in May, there will be no holding a lot of people back.

2009/2010 I thought was the worst in my life when my mother and two beloved aunts died. Yet I had the great succour of relatives and friends which carried me through. I thought 2015/2016 was a particularly tough one too when a close relative died, I underwent two major surgeries, spent time in ICU, weeks in hospital, had a broken foot and a string of other conveniences as well. Yet again with the great support of friends and relatives I was literally carried through this. However 2020/2021 is, in one way, proving one of my worst ongoing nightmares as I live alone and have had bothersome health issues which didn't get properly addressed because of the Covid scenario, and this time there is no succour as everyone else is in a similar situation. It was initially said "we all in this together" but the fact is we are all in this very much individually.

Deeper Blue

Qiaonasen wrote: »

Quite likely looking at restrictions for the next few years. The more we mix the more likely we get a problematic variant.
For some context. Historially many virus pandemics have lasted 2-3 years. Others have lasted a decade or two. We just have to wait and see. Either way we just have to get over it. It's an act of nature.

Also the whole of Europe is only now getting the UK variant so it's gonna be a hell of a summer on the continent.

This virus has been around for one year and we've administered 450 million vaccine doses for it already.

These vaccines are proven to at the very least prevent hospitalisation and death, regardless of the big bad variants.

So why would this go on for longer than 2 years, nevermind "decades"?

is_that_so

Deeper Blue wrote: »

This virus has been around for one year and we've administered 450 million vaccine doses for it already.

These vaccines are proven to at the very least prevent hospitalisation and death, regardless of the big bad variants.

So why would this go on for longer than 2 years, nevermind "decades"?

Another UK expert is on the years crusade.

People may need to wear face coverings and socially distance for several years until we return to normality, a leading epidemiologist has predicted.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56475807

Deeper Blue

is_that_so wrote: »

Another UK expert is on the years crusade.




https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56475807

I think she's been misquoted slightly, she mentions low level restrictions being in place for a few years, but the BBC and Sky seem to have taken that to include social distancing. I'm not sure that's what she meant.

wadacrack

Deeper Blue wrote: »

This virus has been around for one year and we've administered 450 million vaccine doses for it already.

These vaccines are proven to at the very least prevent hospitalisation and death, regardless of the big bad variants.

So why would this go on for longer than 2 years, nevermind "decades"?

Look at Israel. Normal life has basically returned. When a high proportion of people in Europe and here are vaccinated the situation will be obviously much different. International travel is a bit more complicated and may take longer.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Deeper Blue wrote: »

I think she's been misquoted slightly, she mentions low level restrictions being in place for a few years, but the BBC and Sky seem to have taken that to include social distancing. I'm not sure that's what she meant.

Agreed.

I'm expecting significant numbers to wear masks in crowded areas (restrictions for a year or two and voluntarily after that) and to have limits on international travel based on variants of concern for 2-5 years. Probably until we are all fully vaccinated with a booster for variants.

JP Liz V1

360 in hospital

SEPT 23 1989

If we don’t vaccinate 3rd world countries this will be around for years with worse variants than we have now