Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

is_that_so

the kelt wrote: »

Ok so now your speculating as to what might happen because when someone suggested previously it was schools causing the numbers you said

Mother's Day and Paddy's Day activities are being implicated and are far more likely culprits

And then you said the following

People gathering and meeting, sessions etc. All it takes is a small cohort in the most socially active groups and add in a large number of contacts. Almost 25% positivity in contacts will spread it.

Because the above could only happen on Mothers Day and Paddy Day and not EVERY day in schools. People gathering in socially active settings indoors, un masked FIVE days a week couldnt be the reason!!

Sure!!

I'm a fan of Occam's Razor, you're selective in the data you'll believe to the point that all HSE data is fine but that from schools is not. Based on this post you won't be moved from that belief so we'll move on.

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

One thing is for certain, NPHET will almost definitely recommend continuing Lv. 5 restrictions post-April 5.

We are already seeing level 5 prove ineffective. So why bother continuing with it?
If people are acting like we're in level 4 or level 3, you might as well get some economic benefit out of it by actually moving to those levels. To stay in level 5 with poor compliance and cases rising is mad.

Unless they invent a level 6 and deploy the defence forces to force people in their homes, I don't think there will be any reduction in cases.

It's time for a new approach

is_that_so

the kelt wrote: »

So only adults misbehaving that caused our Christmas surge!!!

Ok then!

Schools back, literally thousands more people on the move every day of the week, thousands of students back indoors in crowded classrooms, thousands of teachers back out mobilising again as a result but no, virus only spreads to those behaving badly apparently

You really do have a hang-up about schools, I don't. The schools thread will give you a far better fight on this.

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

Three events last week, two of which could have involved adults behaving badly and yet you're convinced the one that doesn't is to blame despite knowing that adults caused our Christmas surge.

Chris Whitty in the UK speaks openly about how schools reopening will drive up cases, but that that is just something that they have to manage given the importance of having schools open

They treat the population like adults who can handle that truth. I don’t understand why we can’t be treated the same. Or maybe Irish children at different to those in every other country

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

Chris Whitty in the UK speaks openly about how schools reopening will drive up case rates, but that that is just something that they have to manage given the importance of having schools open

They treat the population like adults who can handle that truth. I don’t understand why we can’t be treated the same. Or maybe Irish children at different to those in every other country

Well, you need to disprove the HSE data and assertions then, not quote other jurisdictions.

Rebelbrowser

the kelt wrote: »

And on the flip side in the last week or so numbers have jumped here in Wexford, all from schools.

Multiple cases in 3 schools in my local town alone.

But is this cause or effect? If numbers are rising in a county then numbers will rise in the county's schools too.

The reopening of schools could be the cause, I accept. Some increase from schools reopening seems logical. But if it was the main reason you can't really understand how we have had counties the size/population of Kilkenny, Kerry and Cork with falling numbers over the last 3 weeks.

Sweet.Science

Leftwaffe wrote: »

I read a newspaper front page that said the Gardai felt it was a waste of resources. Whilst the ridiculous 5km stoppages are for some reason.

If there’s no security presence at the hotels we may forget about it. On the other hand it will probably be ****e anyway.

Assumed it would be a half assed effort alright.

the kelt

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

But is this cause or effect? If numbers are rising in a county then numbers will rise in the county's schools too.

The reopening of schools could be the cause, I accept. Some increase from schools reopening seems logical. But if it was the main reason you can't really understand how we have had counties the size/population of Kilkenny, Kerry and Cork with falling numbers over the last 3 weeks.

Exactly.

No its not the only reason, it couldnt possibly be, But to discount it totally as a reason would be illogical.

But i suppose a lot of people will throw logic out the window when the man on the telly in the suit tells them something different.

Logic tells you with this virus you cant suddenly have thousands of extra people moving about into situations ripe for spreading this virus for 2 weeks or more every day and think its not an issue compared to one or two other days because "adults misbehaved on those one off days" and therefore are bigger culprits.

The virus doesnt have a moral compass.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Vicxas wrote: »

Journal article saying hospitalisations rose again yesterday.

They do realise very few people get discharged at the weekend.

A rise of 32 (saturday morning to Sunday morning) would be unusual even at weekends.

It meant that our Sunday morning beds number was identical to the previous Monday number.

Rise of 5 or 10 would be expected.

Last week we went from 340 (saturday morning after Friday discharges) to 360 (Monday morning after 48 hours of very little discharges).,

This week we went from 328 (saturday) to 360 (sunday) with Monday still to come in with more of a rise probably.

lawred2

the kelt wrote: »

Exactly.

No its not the only reason, it couldnt possibly be, But to discount it totally as a reason would be illogical.

But i suppose a lot of people will throw logic out the window when the man on the telly in the suit tells them something different.

Logic tells you with this virus you cant suddenly have thousands of extra people moving about into situations ripe for spreading this virus for 2 weeks or more every day and think its not an issue compared to one or two other days because "adults misbehaved on those one off days" and therefore are bigger culprits.

The virus doesnt have a moral compass.

Who's discounting schools totally?

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

Well, you need to disprove the HSE data and assertions then, not quote other jurisdictions.

The HSE data is presented in a way to support a certain narrative. Basically, if you don't believe schools contribute to transmission, then you cant believe that international travel contributes to transmission. You cant have it both ways

BY the way, I think schools absolutely should be open like normal. But the suggestion that they wont increase transmission is just laughable

Sweet.Science

the kelt wrote: »

Exactly.

No its not the only reason, it couldnt possibly be, But to discount it totally as a reason would be illogical.

But i suppose a lot of people will throw logic out the window when the man on the telly in the suit tells them something different.

Logic tells you with this virus you cant suddenly have thousands of extra people moving about into situations ripe for spreading this virus for 2 weeks or more every day and think its not an issue compared to one or two other days because "adults misbehaved on those one off days" and therefore are bigger culprits.

The virus doesnt have a moral compass.

Didnt Ronan Glynn say the schools going back could give off the vibe that a sense of normality resumed and people attitudes could change . Thats exactly what happened

Schools going back was going to cause a slight jump in numbers in itself but it has also coincided with the public no longer adhering to level 5 rules

It was always going to happen .

stephenjmcd

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

A rise of 32 (saturday morning to Sunday morning) would be unusual even at weekends.

It meant that our Sunday morning beds number was identical to the previous Monday number.

Rise of 5 or 10 would be expected.

Last week we went from 340 (saturday morning after Friday discharges) to 360 (Monday morning after 48 hours of very little discharges).,

This week we went from 328 (saturday) to 360 (sunday) with Monday still to come in with more of a rise probably.

Except there wasn't 32 new admissions so a distinct difference is required here when looking at numbers & I don't think journalists are even aware that the metric has changed, I note the Independent reported over the weekend that there was 40 odd admissions on Satuday which is incorrect, there was 22 between 11am Sat & 11am Sunday. There was 19 cases identified through hospital labs yesterday & 27 on sat. The reporting metric on the hub has changed, you need to now look at the dataset to see the admissions for the 24hrs. See link below. - SUM_no_new_admissions_covid19_posit

154 admissions Sunday to Sunday while there was 173 discharges.

Last Sunday 14th saw 14 admissions, this Sunday 21st saw 22 admissions.

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/fe9bb23592ec4142a4f4c2c9bd32f749_0/data?page=38

Why they felt the need to change the headline figure...who knows

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

We are already seeing level 5 prove ineffective. So why bother continuing with it?
If people are acting like we're in level 4 or level 3, you might as well get some economic benefit out of it by actually moving to those levels. To stay in level 5 with poor compliance and cases rising is mad.

Unless they invent a level 6 and deploy the defence forces to force people in their homes, I don't think there will be any reduction in cases.

It's time for a new approach

Couldn't agree more; the same point I made here yesterday.

But something tells me that NPHET will blame the public rather than it being the fault of Lv. 5 in principle.

Of course, they won't be direct about the culpability but they will reel out the terms, "increase in mobility and cases within private homes", which is code for, "the public isn't doing what we told them to do" (finger-wagging condescending language).

bennyl10

Deleted User wrote: »

One thing is for certain, NPHET will almost definitely recommend continuing Lv. 5 restrictions post-April 5.

as is there job.

I would expect nothing less from NPHET as they report solely on data.

What needs to happen is the government to show leadership and say 'we need a change'

covidrelease

gozunda wrote: »

This was your previous reply



How would allowing hospitals to fill up with growing number of people sick with covid be good management?

We're currently in the midst of a pandemic. I'm no great fan of our current politicians. But they're tasked with trying to manage or at least contain the rate of infection. But fuk it I'd hate to be them. They're damned if the do and damned if they don't no matter what happens.



Nphet as an expert group advise and the government decide to implement thst advice etc. Are restrictions necessary to help keep down the rate of infection? Yes they are imho. With the exception of construction the UK government goes even further with strict stay at home orders and making foreign travel for holidays actually illegal. Ditto coffeed shops which can only offer a take away service - no sitting outside. And I'm not comparing our approach to theirs but simply showing such restrictions are fairly common atm.

What we do need to do need to do is keep vaccinating. And get more vaccines where possible. So we can start to roll back restrictions

And yes people will continue to spread covid to each other if restrictions aren't observed in the medium term whilst the majority of people are still unvaccinated. Thats just the way it is.

I think most people accept we need restrictions, but they need to be the right ones and proportionate to the number of cases at a point in time.

Construction closed is ridiculous, everybody is working away anyway, either insider doing nixers (arguably more dangerous) than on outdoor sites. The government / NPHET should accept this rather than pretend its not happening.

The 5K rule, implemented at ~8000 cases a day but still in place, all it doing is pissing people off and turning people away from compliance.

Gatherings outside, no reason not to allow outdoor gatherings at picnic benches, outside coffee shops etc., people are doing it indoors instead which is more dangerous.

Last week NPHET went on a rant about takeaway pints, all the big Paddys day parties / Cheltenham gatherings took place indoors, it would be much safer to allow some level of outdoor drinking in controlled environments.

The government / NPHET need to accept that these tough measures are not acceptable and counterproductive.

To the best of my knowledge bars and restaurants in New York staying largely open all winter, either outdoors or 25% capacity etc.

bennyl10

bennyl10 wrote: »

as is there job.

I would expect nothing less from NPHET as they report solely on data.

What needs to happen is the government to show leadership and say 'we need a change'

NPHET always say at these conferences how they are there to "give advice" because their role is about preserving public health. If that's their aim, then Lv. 5 is a logical and permanent extension of that. And that's fine - that's their preserve to recommend.

But government must govern - and a society operates on many levels other than how many deaths result from a specific infection.

Restrict yes. Lock-up for 6-months with ever-reducing compliance; that's absolute madness and if this government is worth its salt, it will seek to govern and not follow (NPHET).

MerlinSouthDub

Hospital numbers have updated this morning. 359 in hospital (down 1 from yesterday morning). 11 new confirmed cases in hospital over past 24 hours.

Hope to see the number fall a bit over the next few days.

stephenjmcd

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Hospital numbers have updated this morning. 359 in hospital (down 1 from yesterday morning). 11 new confirmed cases in hospital over past 24 hours.

Hope to see the number fall a bit over the next few days.

17 admissions & 10 discharges between yesterday morning and this morning.

covidrelease

Deleted User wrote: »

NPHET always say at these conferences how they are there to "give advice" because their role is about preserving public health. If that's their aim, then Lv. 5 is a logical and permanent extension of that. And that's fine - that's their preserve to recommend.

But government must govern - and a society operates on many levels other than how many deaths result from a specific infection.

Restrict yes. Lock-up for 6-months with ever-reducing compliance; that's absolute madness and if this government is worth its salt, it will seek to govern and not follow (NPHET).

NPHET need to build human behaviour into their analysis, when cases are low, say less than 1000 a day compliance goes completely out the window, at 5000 cases a day it would probably be quite high.

Turtwig

It is most bizarre that 1,000 cases daily is considered low.

Tazz T

It's becoming very clear that lockdowns are ineffective at preventing the disease from running its course.

Greece has been in lockdown (arguably more restrictive) than us since Xmas and posted its highest infection rates since the beginning last week. This has been proven to be down to the B177 that gave us our 3rd wave at Xmas. Meanwhile Florida in fully open with stable cases.

Lockdowns should be used for what they were originally designed for - flattening the curve and protecting the health services. Lockdowns will not get us down to ultra low numbers. Vaccination and seasonality will, but when they do, lockdown will be erroneously accredited

RebelButtMunch

Turtwig wrote: »

It is most bizarre that 1,000 cases daily is considered low.

When are we going to be able to stop being worried about daily case number and being only concerned with hospital admissions?

Turtwig

Turtwig wrote: »

It is most bizarre that 1,000 cases daily is considered low.

Other European countries maintained an equivalent of 1,000-3,500 cases a day over several months. If it's good enough for other European countries, then it's good enough for us.

Yes, they went back into lockdown - but that was an inevitability anyway.

What's sad with NPHET is that they didn't bother allowing society to enjoy the freedom that comes with this relatively low level of modest infection. Now, with Europe convulsed by a third wave, NPHET has the opportunity to extend Lv. 5 even longer.

Turtwig

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

When are we going to be able to stop being worried about daily case number and being only concerned with hospital admissions?

When we can confidently state rising case numbers won't lead to significant increases in hospital admissions. Certainly not at the present moment in time.

RebelButtMunch

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

When are we going to be able to stop being worried about daily case number and being only concerned with hospital admissions?

As long as NPHET is in the driving seat, never.

I would also add to that list the number of vaccinations and the number of "most vulnerable" remaining to be vaccinated.

A positive spin to the pandemic wouldn't go amiss.

robfowler78

I think the Summer weather and brighter evenings are going to make it almost impossible to be at level 5 with no mixing.

I think we have stayed at level 5 to long we have nowhere to go now.

People won’t stick to the 5km government know this so they will increase it on the 5th to make it look like it’s them allowing it when it’s clearly happening already.

RebelButtMunch

Turtwig wrote: »

When we can confidently state rising case numbers won't lead to significant increases in hospital admissions. Certainly not at the present moment in time.

Agreed, but when will that be, are there signals in the science about it, perhaps at a certain vaccination % ?

Gael23

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Hospital numbers have updated this morning. 359 in hospital (down 1 from yesterday morning). 11 new confirmed cases in hospital over past 24 hours.

Hope to see the number fall a bit over the next few days.

Very few discharges over the weekend. Expect to see a good drop tomorrow as discharges happen through today

TheDoctor

Vicxas wrote: »

Journal article saying hospitalisations rose again yesterday.

They do realise very few people get discharged at the weekend.

Is it people don’t get discharged or that the paper work doesn’t get done until Monday?

Always a bounce at the weekend and then a drop on Monday/Tuesday for the total hospital figure but ICU number seems to be kept up to date