Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

ShineOn7

Wolf359f wrote: »

Yeah, basing it on the most recent epi 14 day report.

Cool

What are the current hospitalization percentages in Ireland for Covid for:

• Under 45s, and
• 44-55?

Ronan seems confident that we'll have an enjoyable summer or more enjoyable than the last 6 months. You can see that what he means is no dining and the enjoyment will come from outdoor pursuits..shocking stuff..If that's Ronans idea of an enjoyable summer, he may go back to the rest the sheldons and have a rethink.

People are sick of being TAKEN..they are now going to TAKE for themselves, come the summer when the mercury get up and the Vit D kicks in, whatever about middle and older aged folks..with No holidays, young people will lose the plot! and they have my blessing.

wadacrack

Zara King going on her "bubble" like she's talking to a friend. Cringeworthy and pretty odd. Glynn did not look impressed

ShineOn7

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

For example, 8 weeks of cases growing at 20% per week would bring us to 2500 cases per day in 8 weeks time. That's perfectly livable with

Oh Jaysus no Merlin

I was on the same page with you upto this point (and I normally agree with most of your posts)

2,500 cases a day with the Kent variant isn't manageable at all

Rebelbrowser

caveat emptor wrote: »

You can see the seven day in most age groups ticking up. Hopefully it reverses again and cases come down.

Again, that graph tends to suggest schools aren't the driver here that many suspected them of being.

Breaston Plants

wadacrack wrote: »

Zara King going on her "bubble" like she's talking to a friend. Cringeworthy and pretty odd. Glynn did not look impressed

What did she say? Missed it.

MerlinSouthDub

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Oh Jaysus no Merlin

I was on the same page with you upto this point (and I normally agree with most of your posts)

2,500 cases a day with the Kent variant isn't manageable at all

Well, it was just an example really but if the cases were 80% under 45, the growth rate was stable and the death rate was low, yes it would be manageable.

Wolf359f

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Cool

What are the current hospitalization percentages in Ireland for Covid for:

• Under 45s, and
• 44-55?

Under 45: 2.1%
45-54: 4.9%

wadacrack

wadacrack wrote: »

Zara King going on her "bubble" like she's talking to a friend. Cringeworthy and pretty odd. Glynn did not look impressed

imagines putting her up to ask any science question, she wouldn't know a proton from a protein.....This is what you get though, absolute fashion victims asking questions..

jojofizzio

Breaston Plants wrote: »

What did she say? Missed it.

Glynn always looks like he’s grinding his teeth when she pipes up

Isn't the point of a press conference to extract publicly useful information?

Yet with these conferences, it's the same old, same old - irrelevant, often stupid questions and bland repetitive answers.

At this stage, what's the point?

Is any other country in the world conducting biweekly scientific conferences like this? I don't think so.

caveat emptor

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Again, that graph tends to suggest schools aren't the driver here that many suspected them of being.

It's hard to interpret but there are only two age groups that have a higher number of cases vs 3 weeks ago.

They are 1-4 and 5-14. Now we are seeing the older age groups increasing. This has been a consistent pattern throughout this.

We are told to reduce our contacts but those who have children in school can't really keep that number low.

Interpret that which ever way you like.

ShineOn7

Wolf359f wrote: »

Under 45: 2.1%
45-54: 4.9%

Thanks. I think similar was mentioned in the Maths thread

Those % are for this Wave though, right?

Because - if memory serves - hospitalisation percentages in Wave 1 were double what we're getting now

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

Under 45: 2.1%
45-54: 4.9%

Only 2.1% of hospital admissions are under 45 years?

If that's the case, then surely 80% of cases today < 45 years is a positive thing (pardon the pun).

Sure, they have the capacity to spread it to the older generation but this is not necessarily guaranteed.

Furthermore, many older people have already been vaccinated anyway.

Atlantic Dawn

Deleted User wrote: »

Only 2.1% of hospital admissions are under 45 years?

If that's the case, then surely 80% of cases today < 45 years is a positive thing (pardon the pun).

Sure, they have the capacity to spread it to the older generation but this is not necessarily guaranteed.

Furthermore, many older people have already been vaccinated anyway.

Exactly, we are very near the stage where actual facts will mean they will have to near fully open up the country. I don't think we have the over 85's done yet, UK gave more doses last week in a single day than we have since we started.

Cork2021

Well written article here from the IT

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/media-and-marketing/government-has-no-message-for-people-who-have-no-more-to-give-1.4516776?mode=amp&fbclid=IwAR3cB-CL0d-fiuPZ9IN_n4p34DeipAdZ0clWODMXmZlB7tY2g-e7jqHHeGo

lawred2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Isn't the point of a press conference to extract publicly useful information?

Yet with these conferences, it's the same old, same old - irrelevant, often stupid questions and bland repetitive answers.

At this stage, what's the point?

Is any other country in the world conducting biweekly scientific conferences like this? I don't think so.

Attended by mostly hacks

ShineOn7

Deleted User wrote: »

Isn't the point of a press conference to extract publicly useful information?

Yet with these conferences, it's the same old, same old - irrelevant, often stupid questions and bland repetitive answers.

At this stage, what's the point?

Is any other country in the world conducting biweekly scientific conferences like this? I don't think so.

I really don't get the self inflicted misery of people still watching those briefings. They've the same look and tone now for 12 months


They're always summed up perfectly well on Twitter moments after they air

Not on Twitter? Not to worry, someone will post a Tweet with the highlights here anyway

They're literally a waste of time to watch and they're so Irish at this stage

Because let's be honest, generally speaking as a nation ....

lawred2

lawred2 wrote: »

Attended by mostly hacks

They stand there and are given their question to ask, it's pre approved and screened before hand I guarantee you! like doing an interview with tom bleeding cruise, via Scientologists.

More like tom snooze!!!

With bigger numbers in Dublin, I wonder how much the 5Km restriction is actually contributing. People closer together etc.

Without the restriction they would be able to go to a big open area like a park/beach etc

CIARAN_BOYLE

Deleted User wrote: »

Only 2.1% of hospital admissions are under 45 years?

If that's the case, then surely 80% of cases today < 45 years is a positive thing (pardon the pun).

Sure, they have the capacity to spread it to the older generation but this is not necessarily guaranteed.

Furthermore, many older people have already been vaccinated anyway.

Is it not that 2.1% of people under 45 years old who are cases are hospitalised rather than 2.1% of hospitalisations are under 45.

A quick Google says 43% of hospitalisation are 65 or younger back in January.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/amp/ireland/hse-chief-says-covid-19-concern-in-hospitals-at-highest-level-ever-1068365.html

It doesn't sound like it should be 7% of hospitalisations under 55 and 38% of hospitalisations between 55 and 65.

AdamD

rusty cole wrote: »

Ronan seems confident that we'll have an enjoyable summer or more enjoyable than the last 6 months. You can see that what he means is no dining and the enjoyment will come from outdoor pursuits..shocking stuff..If that's Ronans idea of an enjoyable summer, he may go back to the rest the sheldons and have a rethink.

People are sick of being TAKEN..they are now going to TAKE for themselves, come the summer when the mercury get up and the Vit D kicks in, whatever about middle and older aged folks..with No holidays, young people will lose the plot! and they have my blessing.

Ronan Glynn seems confident that 80%+ of adults will have gotten a dose by the end of June, but we'll be having an enjoyable summer based on outdoor activities.

If 80%+ are vaccinated, why does it need to be outdoors? Is anyone asking the question?

What they're saying just doesn't add up and doesn't increase confidence in vaccines

CIARAN_BOYLE

AdamD wrote: »

Ronan Glynn seems confident that 80%+ of adults will have gotten a dose by the end of June, but we'll be having an enjoyable summer based on outdoor activities.

If 80%+ are vaccinated, why does it need to be outdoors? Is anyone asking the question?

What they're saying just doesn't add up and doesn't increase confidence in vaccines

I don't think people are generally placing reliance on a single dose giving comprehensive protection.

I know there has been some positive reports and data that one dose provides protection but it's not being accepted as gospel as yet.

Wolf359f

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Thanks. I think similar was mentioned in the Maths thread

Those % are for this Wave though, right?

Because - if memory serves - hospitalisation percentages in Wave 1 were double what we're getting now

Yeah figures from a few weeks ago.
The hospitalisation rate depends on positivity rate also.
That's why it was much higher during wave 1.
Also why in the UK during wave 1 it was something crazy like 60% hospitalisation rate (as they were only testing in hospitals)

Wolf359f

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Only 2.1% of hospital admissions are under 45 years?

If that's the case, then surely 80% of cases today < 45 years is a positive thing (pardon the pun).

Sure, they have the capacity to spread it to the older generation but this is not necessarily guaranteed.

Furthermore, many older people have already been vaccinated anyway.

No, 2% of people under 45 who test positive will require hospital care.

ShineOn7

This post yesterday on Reddit Ireland re: the vaccines was excellent and should give even the most pessimistic some hope

It's received over 1450 upvotes so far. The equivalent of a Boards post getting 1450 Thanks

It's all clearly laid out. There's proper, credible sources linked to. And there's a TLDR at the start for those who haven't time to read it all

I've bolded some highlights for those who need to speed read


It's all worth your time though

TLDR; Over 70s should be finished with one dose by the end of the week beginning the 12th of April. 65-69 should begin getting theirs either that week or the week before.


Serious at risk group will all have their first vaccinations by the week ending the 11th of April. Government should have enough vaccines for 86% of our population to be fully vaccinated by the end of June thus the 80% with a first dose looks very realistic.


There’s been a lot of talk recently about how people don’t believe that the vaccination process is going to be ramped up and people confused about when they will have an opportunity to be vaccinated. I wanted to set a few things straight and perhaps convince people that things aren’t as bad as they might think.


Firstly, the boring stuff (warning, the whole post is quite boring). All my information comes directly from government data. I will be using a combination of the original Irish delivery schedule (a month outdated) as well as the Swedish vaccine schedule (linked below, updated weekly) as my sources. I will obviously adjust the Swedish figures for our population (divided by 2.08).


I will also be using data from the Danish scheduler to try and pinpoint potential weekly deliveries in March and April. I will not be using the Danish data to find out how many doses Ireland will receive as it is well known that Denmark gets a higher per capita amount of vaccines than Ireland and other EU countries (that’s a story for another day). I am also going to assume that we continue to administer pretty much all vaccines we get on a particular week (eg week 1) on the following week (eg week 2).


This is fairly consistent with the evidence we have so far (for example we received 93k vaccines on the week beginning the 1st of March and administered roughly 92k vaccines on the week starting the 8th of March)
So, thus far we received 758k vaccines up to last Sunday. In December we had 40k vaccines delivered. In January we had 166k. In February we saw 312k. In the first two weeks of March we received 238k (compared to 143k in the first two weeks of Feb).

We received 144,840 vaccines in the week starting the 8th of March. The highest before that was 94,620 in the week beginning the 15th of Feb and 93,330 for the week beginning the 1st of March. This is clear evidence of a ramp up and this will continue to get better. We are due 1.1 million vaccines by the end of March, this target is consistent with Swedish vaccine figures which are updated weekly (every Friday).

This means 342k in the last 2.5 weeks of the quarter, and average of 136,800 per week. But we are due 40k extra Pfizer due to a deal agreed last week with the EU so we are actually due something around 1.14 million in the quarter. Now, Paul Reid said today we got around 10k AZ this week. This is consistent with the Danes expecting around 14k. They expect this amount again next week (week starting the 22nd) with the vast majority of AZ coming in the last week (beginning 29th) and thus this would be administered on the week beginning the 5th of April. Moderna still owe us 60k vaccines this quarter also. We have been told to expect it towards the end of the month.

Judging by the Danish vaccine schedule we would be due this the week beginning the 22nd. Anyway I’m rambling through my points now, but you get the idea. Thus, below is the estimated vaccine administration for up to the end of April, basically estimated deliveries plus one week. For Moderna, half the doses delivered are kept back for second doses, while Pfizer and AZ are pretty much all given out.



Week 10 (completed already) : 617k

Week 11 (beginning 15th of March) : 60k (all Pfizer due to AZ cancelation) = 677k

Week 12 (22nd March) : 165k (75k Pfizer + 90k AZ, consisting of 80k in fridges due to pause and 10k deliveries) = 842k

Week 13 (29th March) : 125k (75K Pfizer + 30k Moderna + 10k AZ) = 967k

Week 14 (5th April) : 175k (75k Pfizer + 100k AZ) = 1.142 million

Week 15 (12th April) : 192k (140k Pfizer + 10k Moderna + 42k AZ) = 1.334 million

Week 16 (19th April) : 180k (140k Pfizer + 40k AZ) = 1.514 million

Week 17 (26th April) : 263k (140k Pfizer + 50k Moderna [20k first dose, 30k second dose] + 73k AZ) = 1.777 million

Week 18 (3rd May) : 349k (140k Pfizer + 209k AZ) = 2.126 million



Note that this does not include J&J deliveries in April which are projected to be around 100k. This gets us to 2.226 million vaccines delivered by the end of April. Per capita, by the Swedish vaccine schedule we should have 2.235 million, so this is roughly correct in terms of what each week should look like (especially when you add in the 20k Moderna doses that have been administered as first doses and will be slowly given out as second doses in the coming 4 weeks)


Now, what does that mean for each cohort? Well, I’m going to assume, other than second doses, cohorts 1 and 2 are finished (which is pretty much correct). Per the links below there are around 500k people over 70 and 700k people over 65 (thus 200k 65-69). There are 140k-150k people in cohort 4 (no source on this I just read it was around that number, feel free to correct). The 65-69 age cohort are due the AZ after the serious at risk group. Only 5k of these have been done so basically the next 150k AZ will be given to them.


This puts the 65-69 group starting on the week of the 5th of April or the week starting the 12th of April.

There are roughly 350k doses of mRNA vaccines that need to be given as second doses before the 18th of April. There are around 150k over 70s with one dose so this leaves around 350k yet to get a dose. This would have all over 70s getting a dose by the end of the week beginning the 12th of April (again this is consistent with the governments promise of all over 70s getting a jab by mid-April).


Cohorts 6 (which is small enough) and cohort 7 should thus begin somewhere around the 19th of April, if not the week earlier.
Again this is all kind of confusing but the general point is we have vaccines coming, and the programme will significantly ramp up in the coming weeks.


By the end of June we should have somewhere around 5.25 million 2 dose vaccines and 600k J&J (not including CureVac approval). This is enough to fully vaccinate 3.225 million people or 86% of the adult population. This includes 1.2 million AZ. If you exclude AZ (unreliable), we would still have enough to fully vaccinate 70% of our population by the end of Q2 (again, add at least a week for the vaccines to be administered)


Irish delivery schedule (published in February) https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/c4876-covid-19-resilience-and-recovery-2021-the-path-ahead/


Original vaccine schedule post https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/lr9t5o/vaccinations_in_ireland_as_of_21022021_total/gokiqll/


Swedish vaccination schedule (Deliveries): https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/statistik-och-analyser/prognos-av-vaccinleveranser/


Danish vaccination calendar: https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2021/Corona/Vaccination/Kalender/Specificeret-vaccinationskalender-19032021.ashx?la=da&hash=DFDFB441004E2C313ED7724FCE2018DF26650DC9


Irish week 9 and 10 deliveries: https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1372150312316833798


Irish first two months deliveries: https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1367521128646852609/photo/1


Estimated over 70s breakdown: https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1366026746127130629


Ireland population demographics: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp7md/p7md/p7dgs/

AdamD

AdamD wrote: »

Ronan Glynn seems confident that 80%+ of adults will have gotten a dose by the end of June, but we'll be having an enjoyable summer based on outdoor activities.

If 80%+ are vaccinated, why does it need to be outdoors? Is anyone asking the question?

What they're saying just doesn't add up and doesn't increase confidence in vaccines

They offer no optimism or hope. Just utter misery. It’s laughable tbh

spookwoman

TheDoctor

AdamD wrote: »

Ronan Glynn seems confident that 80%+ of adults will have gotten a dose by the end of June, but we'll be having an enjoyable summer based on outdoor activities.

If 80%+ are vaccinated, why does it need to be outdoors? Is anyone asking the question?

What they're saying just doesn't add up and doesn't increase confidence in vaccines

Its about 100 days until 30 June.... is 80% really going to happen??

MerlinSouthDub

AdamD wrote: »

Ronan Glynn seems confident that 80%+ of adults will have gotten a dose by the end of June, but we'll be having an enjoyable summer based on outdoor activities.

If 80%+ are vaccinated, why does it need to be outdoors? Is anyone asking the question?

What they're saying just doesn't add up and doesn't increase confidence in vaccines

Yeah, this summer of outdoor activities nonsense has to stop. We are already allowed outdoors. You're telling me that in 3 months time, you'll let me go outdoors AND have a pint when outside? Woohoo, I'm so excited. If they want us to "hold firm" we need something bigger to look forward to i.e. a pretty much normal summer. With 80% vaccinated by June, there is absolutely no reason that can't happen.

When NPHET come out with this nonsense, it's like they are still living in October and we don't know how effective the vaccines will be or what impact they will have on transmission. We know that much better now. Their thinking needs to move on, and quickly.