Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

caveat emptor

Looking at the most recent outbreak report (up to the 16th of march) there's been a marked increase in the number of 'family outbreaks'.

• What's also interesting is that there were a reduction in family outbreaks between week 9 and 10. 256 vs 205 which is a 25% decrease week on week
  
• While the number of school outbreaks has increased 0 to 10 week on week for the same period.

Looks like the number of family outbreaks is inversely proportional to the number of school outbreaks. Also the number of outbreaks doesn't seem to be linked to the number of cases. Likely due to contact tracing falling over when cases got out of hand. A bit weird for the most recent period where we saw a decline in cases but increase in outbreaks.

I wonder if the classification for outbreaks has changed or do they go back further to find the source. Hopefully will be more clear when next report comes out. We might get to understand what's driving the stagnation / increase.

prunudo

I know this was covered in the past but I seem to remember that it was possible for the covid test that we use to detect the virus from up to 60ish days ago.
Is it therefore possible that with a rise in close contacts from actual current cases that we are picking up cases from people who had it in late Jan, early Feb but have since recovered.
Might also be another reason for the rise in current numbers.

Locotastic

prunudo wrote: »

I know this was covered in the past but I seem to remember that it was possible for the covid test that we use to detect the virus from up to 60ish days ago.
Is it therefore possible that with a rise in close contacts from actual current cases that we are picking up cases from people who had it in late Jan, early Feb but have since recovered.
Might also be another reason for the rise in current numbers.

It's possible, the cycle threshold we use here is higher than what is generally recommended and there is a possibility of picking up dead viral fragments when doing that.

prunudo

Locotastic wrote: »

It's possible, the cycle threshold we use here is higher than what is generally recommended and there is a possibility of picking up dead viral fragments when doing that.

Thats what I was thinking, obviously it wouldn't explain all current cases but might account for part of the reason the increase.

DSN

podgeandrodge wrote: »

My mother is over 80 now. Still no jab. Not being done in her local GP. They said she should hear in next couple of weeks. Higgins is not 80 yet, so it shouldn't be "his turn" yet!

75-79s are being done since last week in the two surgeries local to me. My mum 75 lots of her cohorts in age group done she on list for next batch fings crossed this week or next so I would chase this.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Locotastic wrote: »

It's possible, the cycle threshold we use here is higher than what is generally recommended and there is a possibility of picking up dead viral fragments when doing that.

Except we don't use positives detected on a high cycle threshold as positives. We call them marginal positives we don't include in case numbers and we refer them back for retesting.

prunudo

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Except we don't use positives detected on a high cycle threshold as positives. We call them marginal positives we don't include in case numbers and we refer them back for retesting.

Ah right, I misunderstood this part of the testing process, thank you for clearing up.

Renault 5

podgeandrodge wrote: »

My mother is over 80 now. Still no jab. Not being done in her local GP. They said she should hear in next couple of weeks. Higgins is not 80 yet, so it shouldn't be "his turn" yet!

My Mother is 81 , Riddled with arthritis where she unable to walk more then a few meters without assistance and also on the highest blood pressure tablets you can get.

no sign of getting vaccinated yet and her doctor has no info yet.

In Kildare.

Wolf359f

caveat emptor wrote: »

Looking at the most recent outbreak report (up to the 16th of march) there's been a marked increase in the number of 'family outbreaks'.

• What's also interesting is that there were a reduction in family outbreaks between week 9 and 10. 256 vs 205 which is a 25% decrease week on week
  
• While the number of school outbreaks has increased 0 to 10 week on week for the same period.

Looks like the number of family outbreaks is inversely proportional to the number of school outbreaks. Also the number of outbreaks doesn't seem to be linked to the number of cases. Likely due to contact tracing falling over when cases got out of hand. A bit weird for the most recent period where we saw a decline in cases but increase in outbreaks.

I wonder if the classification for outbreaks has changed or do they go back further to find the source. Hopefully will be more clear when next report comes out. We might get to understand what's driving the stagnation / increase.

*Public Health are prioritising the reporting of outbreaks in key settings e.g. RCFs, hospitals. Therefore, the number of private house outbreaks is underestimated.

It was flagged at a press conference weeks ago that they expect the number of household cluster will increase over the coming weeks as they catch up with them.

gctest50

They have all the bases covered in the f*****wittery stakes :

http://www.nphet.ie

JTMan

Independent reports on where 10%+ of the cases are coming from ...

primary school children who are testing positive for 50 to 60 cases of the virus a day

Derek Zoolander

caveat emptor wrote: »

Looking at the most recent outbreak report (up to the 16th of march) there's been a marked increase in the number of 'family outbreaks'.

• What's also interesting is that there were a reduction in family outbreaks between week 9 and 10. 256 vs 205 which is a 25% decrease week on week
  
• While the number of school outbreaks has increased 0 to 10 week on week for the same period.

Looks like the number of family outbreaks is inversely proportional to the number of school outbreaks. Also the number of outbreaks doesn't seem to be linked to the number of cases. Likely due to contact tracing falling over when cases got out of hand. A bit weird for the most recent period where we saw a decline in cases but increase in outbreaks.

I wonder if the classification for outbreaks has changed or do they go back further to find the source. Hopefully will be more clear when next report comes out. We might get to understand what's driving the stagnation / increase.

Surely all that shows is when our testing / track and trace breaks down...

anytime the general outbreaks approach the family ones is a sign that they stopped testing or were overcapacity in terms of testing...

it goes to show how bad our system is when we have 2 segments...

podgeandrodge

JTMan wrote: »

Independent reports on where 10%+ of the cases are coming from ...

Can they align household cases with households with school going children to see if it is significant?

Morries Wigs

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Can they align household cases with households with school going children to see if it is significant?

no they wont because its true and they want to keep them open -totally obvious kids are getting it at school and infecting parents who then spread it

Jim_Hodge

Morries Wigs wrote: »

no they wont because its true and they want to keep them open -totally obvious kids are getting it at school and infecting parents who then spread it

Why is that only happening in four or five counties then? Surely if schools were a factor of note it would be visible across all counties.

caveat emptor

Derek Zoolander wrote: »

Surely all that shows is when our testing / track and trace breaks down...

anytime the general outbreaks approach the family ones is a sign that they stopped testing or were overcapacity in terms of testing...

it goes to show how bad our system is when we have 2 segments...

Yeah except track and trace didn't break down in September and we got a massive increase in 'family outbreaks' during september.

mloc123

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Why is that only happening in four or five counties then? Surely if schools were a factor of note it would be visible across all counties.

Obviously there are only schools in Dublin, Meath, Longford and Donegal... Clare, Cork and Kerry must not have a single school

Benimar

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Why is that only happening in four or five counties then? Surely if schools were a factor of note it would be visible across all counties.

Case numbers in 5-12 year olds are going up Jim, most other age groups are declining or are static.

I think NPHET have done a good job in difficult circumstances, but this insistence that schools aren't leading to an increase in case numbers is rubbish. Ronan Glynn even suggested at one stage last night that the increase might be due to playdates! So, kids don't get it in schools from other kids, but do outside the school gates??

I know schools would cause an increase and I sent my kids back, but I would be much happier if I knew that we were getting honest data about school cases so we can make our own judgements about current levels of risk to our kids.

titan18

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Why is that only happening in four or five counties then? Surely if schools were a factor of note it would be visible across all counties.

I'd hazard a guess at this that the virus level in some counties is so low that schools reopening didn't really affect it. It might be a 2-3% increase over time but when you're posting 5 cases a day, that's not really an issue. When the virus level is higher, there's a higher likelihood that one child has contact with someone who has it and they spread it others in school.

Sweet.Science

Its crazy . Schools aren't an issue to some people . Its people visiting each others homes and sitting in close proximity to them indoors

Just think about that one.

billyhead

DSN wrote: »

75-79s are being done since last week in the two surgeries local to me. My mum 75 lots of her cohorts in age group done she on list for next batch fings crossed this week or next so I would chase this.

What County is your Mum in? It's very inconsistent. My Mum is in the 75-80 cohort and hasn't heard a dickybird. Also is a letter or a text they use to notify people of their appointment date and time?

Derek Zoolander

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah except track and trace didn't break down in September and we got a massive increase in 'family outbreaks' during september.

that would be the schools then

big syke

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Its crazy . Schools aren't an issue to some people . Its people visiting each others homes and sitting in close proximity to them indoors

Just think about that one.

Ye because there is ZERO control in each others homes. No distancing, time limits, alcohol can be involved too etc.

Nothing wrong with this in my opinion and I think peple should risk asess but I cannot see how people still are banging this drum that equates schools and general indoor visits.

Schools in the main at least try have some control with sanitisation, pods, distancing, masks for parents etc.

prunudo

mloc123 wrote: »

Obviously there are only schools in Dublin, Meath, Longford and Donegal... Clare, Cork and Kerry must not have a single school

Surely its chicken and egg situation though, if cases are higher in the community, in households etc it stands to reason that cases will rise in schools as the children from these households start mixing in confined spaces.
I don't have a problem with the schools goimg back but it needs to be accepted that it will or could cause cases to rise. The idea that it doesn't is just a further example of the authorities treating us like idiots.

lawred2

big syke wrote: »

Ye because there is ZERO control in each others homes. No distancing, time limits, alcohol can be involved too etc.

Nothing wrong with this in my opinion and I think peple should risk asess but I cannot see how people still are banging this drum that equates schools and general indoor visits.

Schools in the main at least try have some control with sanitisation, pods, distancing, masks for parents etc.

surely you're not insinuating that people aren't practicing social distancing in their own homes?

how selfish can people be?

don't they know there's a pandemic!?

I think we need to consider shutting people's homes.

Akesh

big syke wrote: »

Ye because there is ZERO control in each others homes. No distancing, time limits, alcohol can be involved too etc.

Nothing wrong with this in my opinion and I think peple should risk asess but I cannot see how people still are banging this drum that equates schools and general indoor visits.

Schools in the main at least try have some control with sanitisation, pods, distancing, masks for parents etc.

The biggest issue with schools is that the HSE define who is a close contact and who isn't. This decision entirely relates to ensuring the school stays open. The HSE have told schools to turn off contact tracing apps while working.

I agree with keeping schools open but lets at least have some transparency.

Cluedo Monopoly

Benimar wrote: »

Case numbers in 5-12 year olds are going up Jim, most other age groups are declining or are static.

I think NPHET have done a good job in difficult circumstances, but this insistence that schools aren't leading to an increase in case numbers is rubbish. Ronan Glynn even suggested at one stage last night that the increase might be due to playdates! So, kids don't get it in schools from other kids, but do outside the school gates??

I know schools would cause an increase and I sent my kids back, but I would be much happier if I knew that we were getting honest data about school cases so we can make our own judgements about current levels of risk to our kids.

Kids are meeting up a lot more in the evenings and weekends too as the wearher improves. I can see that myself. They are meeting up when out for cycles and walks and it's hard to blame them. I also see them at football pitches and green areas playing a bit of sport. Is it true we are the only country not to have underage sport since January?

Renault 5

Derek Zoolander wrote: »

that would be the schools then

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Its crazy . Schools aren't an issue to some people . Its people visiting each others homes and sitting in close proximity to them indoors

Just think about that one.

titan18 wrote: »

I'd hazard a guess at this that the virus level in some counties is so low that schools reopening didn't really affect it. It might be a 2-3% increase over time but when you're posting 5 cases a day, that's not really an issue. When the virus level is higher, there's a higher likelihood that one child has contact with someone who has it and they spread it others in school.

Benimar wrote: »

Case numbers in 5-12 year olds are going up Jim, most other age groups are declining or are static.

I think NPHET have done a good job in difficult circumstances, but this insistence that schools aren't leading to an increase in case numbers is rubbish. Ronan Glynn even suggested at one stage last night that the increase might be due to playdates! So, kids don't get it in schools from other kids, but do outside the school gates??

I know schools would cause an increase and I sent my kids back, but I would be much happier if I knew that we were getting honest data about school cases so we can make our own judgements about current levels of risk to our kids.

Morries Wigs wrote: »

no they wont because its true and they want to keep them open -totally obvious kids are getting it at school and infecting parents who then spread it

JTMan wrote: »

Independent reports on where 10%+ of the cases are coming from ...

I dont think the Government want you looking at the details.

big syke

Akesh wrote: »

The biggest issue with schools is that the HSE define who is a close contact and who isn't. This decision entirely relates to ensuring the school stays open. The HSE have told schools to turn off contact tracing apps while working.

I agree with keeping schools open but lets at least have some transparency.

Absolutely 100% agree.

If anyone in a class is positive the whole class and any contact in the school needs to be sent home and tested.

noplacehere

titan18 wrote: »

I'd hazard a guess at this that the virus level in some counties is so low that schools reopening didn't really affect it. It might be a 2-3% increase over time but when you're posting 5 cases a day, that's not really an issue. When the virus level is higher, there's a higher likelihood that one child has contact with someone who has it and they spread it others in school.

I think it’s certainly this. As my principal has been quoted this year saying ‘we are fine until we have an actual case in the building’. We have so far avoided that thankfully. But it just takes one parent or one asymptotic child to seed it in a class where they are unmasked.

My current experience through two close friends is that track and trace isn’t quick enough either. One school, one creche. Both parents had their children pulled out and isolating at least 48hrs before they were eventually contacted to say the children were close contacts. Then in one house both children were close contacts but only one got the first test through the HSE, the other fell through the cracks. Then she tested positive on the second test and they don’t know if she was positive on the first because it wasn’t done. Messy. In the other household the parent/school didn’t tell the parents until given permission by public health which took five days from the child having been in school. Then it took another two and another positive (arranged by the parent not the HSE) for the rest of the class to be designated close contacts. That’s a solid week which is ridiculous