Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

Rebelbrowser

Benimar wrote: »

Case numbers in 5-12 year olds are going up Jim, most other age groups are declining or are static.

Someone posted a graph yesterday showing that 5-12 year old were going up at the same rate as everyone else basically

big syke

lawred2 wrote: »

surely you're not insinuating that people aren't practicing social distancing in their own homes?

how selfish can people be?

don't they know there's a pandemic!?

I think we need to consider shutting people's homes.

At least try add some value to the discussion

Sweet.Science

big syke wrote: »

Ye because there is ZERO control in each others homes. No distancing, time limits, alcohol can be involved too etc.

Nothing wrong with this in my opinion and I think peple should risk asess but I cannot see how people still are banging this drum that equates schools and general indoor visits.

Schools in the main at least try have some control with sanitisation, pods, distancing, masks for parents etc.

How do you know there is zero control in other people's homes ? Genuinely curious how you are so sure

And how you are so sure that there is control in creches and primarily schools . When I know first hand it's impossible

mloc123

prunudo wrote: »

Surely its chicken and egg situation though, if cases are higher in the community, in households etc it stands to reason that cases will rise in schools as the children from these households start mixing in confined spaces.
I don't have a problem with the schools goimg back but it needs to be accepted that it will or could cause cases to rise. The idea that it doesn't is just a further example of the authorities treating us like idiots.

The problem is, people saying it is the ONLY cause of cases rising which is obviously not true. Cases are rising for multiple reasons.... lack of compliance, travel, workplace outbreaks etc.. etc..

Rebelbrowser

mloc123 wrote: »

The problem is, people saying it is the ONLY cause of cases rising which is obviously not true. Cases are rising for multiple reasons.... lack of compliance, travel, workplace outbreaks etc.. etc..

Exactly. But I think those of us making this point do accept that up until now (though a little change in recent days) NPHET have gone out of their way to say schools were not a cause at all. But we all know why they did - fear of the inevitable response from teachers' unions (and this is not a dig at teachers at all who I just think are poorly represented in every sense by their unions).

big syke

Sweet.Science wrote: »

How do you know there is zero control in other people's homes ? Genuinely curious how you are so sure

And how you are so sure that there is control in creches and primarily schools . When I know first hand it's impossible

There is no control in homes I have been to. But you are right the vast majority could have a lot of strict controls such as pods, social distance stickers and information etc in their homes. 100% plausible.

Its not impossible. Its hard but not impossible. I work in a primary school as does my brother and our cirlce of friends - most in different schools. We have pods, sanitisation units before entering school, social distance information.

Are you geniuinly equating a school to a person at home with, for example, 12 of their immediate family from 4 different homes?

Doctor Jimbob

Benimar wrote: »

Case numbers in 5-12 year olds are going up Jim, most other age groups are declining or are static.

I think NPHET have done a good job in difficult circumstances, but this insistence that schools aren't leading to an increase in case numbers is rubbish. Ronan Glynn even suggested at one stage last night that the increase might be due to playdates! So, kids don't get it in schools from other kids, but do outside the school gates??

I know schools would cause an increase and I sent my kids back, but I would be much happier if I knew that we were getting honest data about school cases so we can make our own judgements about current levels of risk to our kids.

I've just wasted half an hour of my morning comparing the 7 day case numbers per age group as a percentage of total numbers from the week starting 24th Jan to the week starting March 7th. I was expecting to see an obvious rise in children when the schools came back but to be honest, it isn't really there - or more accurately, it seems to have started before the schools went back. There does appear to be a slight trend upwards in children as opposed to the fluctuation/decline seen elsewhere, but I can see why it isn't a particular concern at the moment.

It will be interesting to see whether this changes with last weeks data. It doesn't seem to be available online yet.

I'm not an expert either, so if anyone sees any obvious flaws in what I've done let me know :pac:

https://imgur.com/sDo4Ogz

caveat emptor

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Someone posted a graph yesterday showing that 5-12 year old were going up at the same rate as everyone else basically

Yeah 5 - 14 were increasing over the past 2 weeks while other age groups falling.
7 day average to remove day of week weirdness. Now other age groups all increasing. That data seems to lag another day behind the overall case number as the age group data when added is different to the daily case number but matches the previous day quite well. I added the 2016 census data to get an idea of the relative size of the proportion between the different age groups as they are not equal bins. 1-4 age group is the highest based on that. Could be those creche outbreaks also I don't have 2021 data on the population so could be off.





Also that age group didn't correlate with the others. Shown in the second chart below. The purple shows that the trend in that cohort is different to the others over the past 30 days (7 day average). Increasing from a low base. Basically how's the others tracked quite well i.e all decreasing.

Sweet.Science

big syke wrote: »

There is no control in homes I have been to. But you are right the vast majority could have a lot of strict controls such as pods, social distance stickers and information etc in their homes. 100% plausible.

Its not impossible. Its hard but not impossible. I work in a primary school as does my brother and our cirlce of friends - most in different schools. We have pods, sanitisation units before entering school, social distance information.

Are you geniuinly equating a school to a person at home with, for example, 12 of their immediate family from 4 different homes?

So you are actually admitting you are part of the problem

big syke

Sweet.Science wrote: »

So you are actually admitting you are part of the problem

Sorry?

Sweet.Science

big syke wrote: »

Sorry?

You have visited homes that have no control.

eeepaulo

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah 5 - 14 were increasing over the past 2 weeks while other age groups falling.
7 day average to remove day of week weirdness. Now other age groups all increasing. That data seems to lag another day behind the overall case number as the age group data when added is different to the daily case number but matches the previous day quite well. I added the 2016 census data to get an idea of the relative size of the proportion between the different age groups as they are not equal bins. 1-4 age group is the highest based on that. Could be those creche outbreaks also I don't have 2021 data on the population so could be off.

Also that age group didn't correlate with the others. Shown in the second chart below. The purple shows that the trend in that cohort is different to the others over the past 30 days (7 day average). Increasing from a low base. Basically how's the others tracked quite well i.e all decreasing.

Do those figures take into account the size of the cohort? Are they just cases as a % of overall population?

I would be really interested to see how many actual tests are being performed in each cohort and the % positive test, i had a look through the stats, couldnt find anything for those though

CIARAN_BOYLE

prunudo wrote: »

Ah right, I misunderstood this part of the testing process, thank you for clearing up.

No problem.

A few posters and journalists made a big deal out of it last September when it was discovered we did did the test with high cycles.

It was asked in one of the NPHET briefings around then and De Gasgun explained it well.

Jinglejangle69

Already talk of teachers unions watching the numbers and they are worried on Newstalk.

I have a feeling where this is going.

caveat emptor

eeepaulo wrote: »

Do those figures take into account the size of the cohort? Are they just cases as a % of overall population?

I would be really interested to see how many actual tests are being performed in each cohort and the % positive test, i had a look through the stats, couldnt find anything for those though

Yest they are 7 day average cases per 100K for each of the groups based off 2016 census figures . So say for the 15-24 age group the pop in 2016 was 576 000. So if the figure is 10 in the chart on the y axis. That just means there was roughly 50 cases per day in that group over a 7 day period. They don't provide the testing break down.

It allows for relative comparison between age groups. Not sure how much the pop has changed since then but it removes the affect of 1-4 being much smaller (5 year bracket) compared to the others (10 year bracket) Also the 65+ is much larger etc.

covidrelease

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Already talk of teachers unions watching the numbers and they are worried on Newstalk.

I have a feeling where this is going.

Hold out until Easter and then LC only I'd think.

prunudo

mloc123 wrote: »

The problem is, people saying it is the ONLY cause of cases rising which is obviously not true. Cases are rising for multiple reasons.... lack of compliance, travel, workplace outbreaks etc.. etc..

To be fair I haven't seen many saying its only schools, ss you say spread is happening everywhere but unfortunately its inevitable when you ease restrictions especially when its a more contagious variant and numbers are still high enough compared to last May.

Jim_Hodge

titan18 wrote: »

I'd hazard a guess at this that the virus level in some counties is so low that schools reopening didn't really affect it. It might be a 2-3% increase over time but when you're posting 5 cases a day, that's not really an issue. When the virus level is higher, there's a higher likelihood that one child has contact with someone who has it and they spread it others in school.

I'd guess that's wrong, as my county was consistently high for 14 day/100k for a couple of months and has dropped well down since schools went back .

stephenjmcd

Sunday &Monday swabs finally published

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1374320297751539717?s=20

IrishStuff09

Swabs are back!

Links removed, Stephen beat me to it :P

MerlinSouthDub

The swab data is working again

Sunday: 611 swabs , 4.11% + rate
Monday: 506 swabs, 3.98% + rate

Better than I had feared.

Edit: Stephen got in before me.

stephenjmcd

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

Swabs are back!

Links removed, Stephen beat me to it :P

Finally someone must have made a mistake when trying to upload them yesterday

IrishStuff09

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Finally someone must have made a mistake when trying to upload them yesterday

Definitely. They were fixed suspiciously quick after my Tweet about them being missing

eigrod

Positivity below 4% yesterday is good news.

jhegarty

So after all the panic on Sunday it was less swabs than the week before. Just a backlog to be cleared.

MerlinSouthDub

jhegarty wrote: »

So after all the panic on Sunday it was less swabs than the week before. Just a backlog to be cleared.

Yep - the golden rule with this is only ever trust the swab data!

Renault 5

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Already talk of teachers unions watching the numbers and they are worried on Newstalk.

I have a feeling where this is going.

Wont somebody think of the parents !

Jinglejangle69

Renault 5 wrote: »

Wont somebody think of the parents !

Nah was thinking of the kids.

I underage massive concern people have that cases have surged after schools return from a 7 day average the day before they went back of 648 to a massive 543 yesterday. Shocking.

Also the stat that primary schools kids, who make up more than 10% of the population now have 10% of cases, at a time when most other age groups have no reason to meet in groups at all.

Polar101

So.. mandatory quarantine for incoming flight passengers going "live" on Friday, but only if you travel in from South America, many African countries, UAE or Austria.

I wonder if they just did a quiz of "name all countries of the world", and the winner was able to name 33 countries. I could think of a few other countries that should be on the list.

€1875 for a 2-week staycation in a hotel.