Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

eagle eye

Theboinkmaster wrote:

500 cases a day with 300 in hospital and nothing increasing is enough for level 3 IMO.

Yeah if you want to be back at 2000 cases and hospitals packed in two weeks.

Rebelbrowser

covidrelease wrote: »

Its not great because NPHET were hoping for 100-300 a day by now, I agree level 3 outdoor pubs and restaurants open is where we should be for April, but NPHET and Martins "slow and cautious" mantra means not much will happen.

By my calculations, taking our population as 4.9 million, 200 cases a day would mean a 14 day rate of 57 per 100,000. At present our national 14 day rate is 157 per 100,000.

But for the record, there are 5 counties below that magic rate of 57 per 100,000 (being Leitrim, Kilkenny, Cork, Kerry and Clare).

If you use the 300 cases a day figure, the rate goes up to 86 per 100,000. We have 10 counties at 90 or lower. On top of those 10, other counties, like Limerick, seem to falling all the time and should join that cohort soon (in passing, making quite the area in the south west of Clare, Limerick, Kerry and Cork which would be very low covid).

That hopefully tells us these lower national figures are perfectly possible.

Separately, I believe it also means there has to be some consideration to some class of regionalisation in the announcement slated for next week.

big syke

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah if you want to be back at 2000 cases and hospitals packed in two weeks.

Whos to say that would happen. And before you say it we are in a different place today then in December/Jan.

It is not comparible.

daydorunrun

daydorunrun wrote: »

Caught the tail end of a radio segment yesterday talking about RTE profits (was not on an RTE station!) 2020 was the first year in many years that RTE turned a profit. This was helped significantly by increased advertising revenue due to higher viewing figures shows like Prime Time and CB live.
There will be some in Montrose sad when this is all over!

Profiting from the misery of others, who would have thunk it. Keep the fear pumped out, and discredited spoofers like Sam McConkey in the limelight. RTÉ have no shame, any notion of a balanced narrative long abandoned. And the taxpayers funding this dinosaur are being betrayed and vilified to this very day.

Theboinkmaster

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah if you want to be back at 2000 cases and hospitals packed in two weeks.

i dont believe level 3 in april/may would do that.

Xmas did that - going from level 5 to zero for 3 weeks leading up to xmas.

MerlinSouthDub

The trend in the GP referral data would not make you happy.

This is Monday's data, so you always see an increase after the weekend, but the last week has been bad whatever way you look at it.

https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-03-23_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf

big syke

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

i dont believe level 3 in april/may would do that.

Xmas did that - going from level 5 to zero for 3 weeks leading up to xmas.

Exactly. Plus no vaccinations of the vulnerable or HCW.

lee_baby_simms

daydorunrun wrote: »

Caught the tail end of a radio segment yesterday talking about RTE profits (was not on an RTE station!) 2020 was the first year in many years that RTE turned a profit. This was helped significantly by increased advertising revenue due to higher viewing figures shows like Prime Time and CB live.
There will be some in Montrose sad when this is all over!

Fair play to them. Milking the last bit of attention out of their ever dwindling aged audience by scaring the **** out of them.

Says a lot when they can only improve ratings when people are literally locked indoors.

covidrelease

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah if you want to be back at 2000 cases and hospitals packed in two weeks.

No chance, back in December we had hotels packing in 250 for the All Ireland final and staying there all day, along with huge gatherings Christmas day and people on the move en masse, nationally.

Also Christmas shopping packing non essential retail.

The biggest culprit was social mixing indoors.

Allow gatherings outdoors and it will be fine.

Benimar

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I would say 90% of people I talk to are 95%+ compliant.

ek motor wrote: »

That's an incredible statistic. I would say of the people I know the inverse is true.

I'd be in the first group. 90% of people I know are 95% compliant.

The ones who aren't are the same ones who weren't last April or November either.

Certainly based on my experience and discussions with friends and work colleagues, the level of compliance is still incredibly high.

Eod100

political analyst wrote: »

I meant that many people are still having gatherings among themselves at each other's homes. Restricting people's socialising is like banning the consumption of alcohol in the US in the 1920s - it doesn't work!

No restrictions are 100% effective. A minority are but majority aren't. Doesn't mean it justifies not having restrictions at all.

covidrelease

big syke wrote: »

Exactly. Plus no vaccinations of the vulnerable or HCW.

And another little bit of herd immunity built thanks to the Christmas wave, even a full repeat of Christmas would take longer to get out of hand.

Benimar

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

i dont believe level 3 in april/may would do that.

Xmas did that - going from level 5 to zero for 3 weeks leading up to xmas.

Eh, we went from Level 5 to Level 3 on the 1st December.

blade1

Benimar wrote: »

Eh, we went from Level 5 to Level 3 on the 1st December.

Surely poster meant mentally not legally.

Benimar

blade1 wrote: »

Surely poster meant mentally not legally.

Probably, but the fear is the same mentality would apply again.

covidrelease

Benimar wrote: »

Probably, but the fear is the same mentality would apply again.

Not if indoor gathering are not allowed.

Outdoors all the way, both at home and pubs / restaurants. Restrict numbers.

Modified Level 3 so to speak.

Just Saying

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I would say 90% of people I talk to are 95%+ compliant.

I heard recently of a survey where 97% of people say they are more compliant with restrictions than the average person..As our American friends might say ...Go figure!!

I must try to find out who did the survey but it highlights the difference between perception and reality.

eagle eye

big syke wrote:

Whos to say that would happen. And before you say it we are in a different place today then in December/Jan.
It is not comparible.

If you relax restrictions then some are going to push the boundaries.
So if you say no house calls you'll have these people meeting one other family. You say one household can visit another they'll have three or four families over.
That's just the way some people act and in a pandemic if one of those families get covid you'll have a large cluster very quickly with relaxed restrictions.

iamwhoiam

covidrelease wrote: »

Not if indoor gathering are not allowed.

Outdoors all the way, both at home and pubs / restaurants. Restrict numbers.

Modified Level 3 so to speak.

Everything outdoors should be encouraged now . Outdoor eating , outdoor pubs , people allowed meet outdoors , picnic areas and parks should encourage with benches and seating areas . People should be encouraged to bring picnics and stay outdoors as much as they can

caveat emptor

I find it shocking that TV viewership and advertising revenue is up during these never ending lockdowns. It's not like there's loads of options of an evening.

wadacrack

So on the GP data on 15 March was 0.42 likey covid and nearly doubled in a week to 0.81 to March 22nd. This is alarming tbh .It does seem to be the start of another wave unless St Patrick's day has lead to a backlog of people reporting for testing

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

If you relax restrictions then some are going to push the boundaries.
So if you say no house calls you'll have these people meeting one other family. You say one household can visit another they'll have three or four families over.
That's just the way some people act and in a pandemic if one of those families get covid you'll have a large cluster very quickly with relaxed restrictions.

you're a sociologist now are you? ask for twice what you want and if you get half you're quid's in?? doesn't apply here, each person will judge what they do on their own merit..in the 80's they told people to wear a condom, do you think nobody had sex?? for some (over 65's) fear will keep them compliant, for others, (middle aged, mortgaged types) keeping their job or fear of losing it, will keep them compliant and for the young...a carrot..holidays, return to cinema etc will only work, not fear.. HOWEVER 1 year on...people will do what they can and want. Id gladly pay a fine to tell them to feck off.

JP Liz V1

https://twitter.com/DrPaulTheGP/status/1374130659984338944

covidrelease

eagle eye wrote: »

If you relax restrictions then some are going to push the boundaries.
So if you say no house calls you'll have these people meeting one other family. You say one household can visit another they'll have three or four families over.
That's just the way some people act and in a pandemic if one of those families get covid you'll have a large cluster very quickly with relaxed restrictions.

Won't lead to your prediction of hospitals packed in 2 weeks once people meet outside.

Rebelbrowser

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The trend in the GP referral data would not make you happy.

This is Monday's data, so you always see an increase after the weekend, but the last week has been bad whatever way you look at it.

https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-03-23_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf

Terrible looking numbers I agree. Obviously it could mean bad news is around the corner. That's the most likely correct interpretation. However, just to put a possible alternative spin on it...

Firstly the number of people meeting test criteria has really jumped, well over two for each respondent yesterday. The number of them clinically likely to have covid has also jumped I note, but not at the same rate at all. GPs are saying that only 38% or so of those they are referring are clinically likely to have covid.

This might in turn be explained by some (very anecdotal) evidence I can add. Specifically a relative works in a pre school. At present they have large numbers of kids out sick - a mixture of cold symptoms, temperatures, nausea, etc. But 3 kids who had been out for a few days returned today with having all gotten negative covid tests in the meantime. Nor is there are indication any of the other kids still out has tested positive for covid.

So this small sample at least does suggest that, unlike a month ago, there are possibly other sicknesses spreading at the moment other than covid. That would explain a big jump in calls to GPs if the symptoms overlap with covid. It would also explain why the GPs think that only 38% of people they are referring actually have covid - that 38% figure was running at 50% last Friday (and given case positivity is only 4%, even that 38% seems an overstatement - but maybe "clinically likely" to have covid does not mean the GP necessarily thinks they have covid).

TobyHolmes

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DrPaulTheGP/status/1374130659984338944

meanwhile the us had over 100 million people vaccinated.


this is a joke of a country (blame EU yadda yadda)


fact of the matter is we should have never relied on a free market.any economist would have said that.



the pharmaceutical industry is a business. not a charity. (thats the plain and unfortunate truth)

11521323

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DrPaulTheGP/status/1374130659984338944

The Irish Government are doing an impeccable job, there cannot be an ounce of fault placed on their shoulders for this, it's all the EU's fault.




/s

Russman

covidrelease wrote: »

Won't lead to your prediction of hospitals packed in 2 weeks once people meet outside.

I think its widely accepted that outside is way safer than inside, emphasis on safer rather than safe per se. For me, the issue is when inevitably there's situations like "....the sun's gone in, its gone a bit chilly out here, sure come on inside for a cuppa...." or "....will you stay for a bit of lunch...." etc etc

TobyHolmes

11521323 wrote: »

The Irish Government are doing an impeccable job, there cannot be an ounce of fault placed on their shoulders for this, it's all the EU's fault.




/s

sarcasm i hope

paddyisreal

Just Saying wrote: »

I heard recently of a survey where 97% of people say they are more compliant with restrictions than the average person..As our American friends might say ...Go figure!!

I must try to find out who did the survey but it highlights the difference between perception and reality.

Off course people are compliant with restrictions, everything is closed so there's no where to go. I wonder how compliance would be if shops etc were open