Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

timmyntc

MrMusician18 wrote: »

With all due respect, you are neither qualified nor have the information to credibly make that call. Aside from the first few weeks back in last March/April, you've been consistently calling for loosening of the restrictions.

The best way to get other services back is to reduce the covid burden on the health system, yet over half of the permanent ICU beds we have are filled with covid patients. Your proposal is to relax now, what do you think will happen then? What will the consequences be? It would hardly be further strain on the health system putting back access to services that you profess to care about?

Most health services do not depend on ICU beds fyi

Stateofyou

What are you illustrating there raind, particularly in reference to my question?

(But are they falling at the same rate as before the new dominant variant?

Does this not point to the issue we are going to soon have with the education sector going back, and with the higher transmissibility?)

CIARAN_BOYLE

timmyntc wrote: »

Most health services do not depend on ICU beds fyi

True but a lot do. Even if only as a contingency.

For example if they plan to do 40 knee and hip replacements they might need one icu bed in reserve in case of complications. If they don't have the icu bed they cancel the operations.

Thats an example. The same applies with a lot of different elective procedures. ICU availability might never be used but its kept as a reserve to allow operations go ahead.

MrMusician18

timmyntc wrote: »

Most health services do not depend on ICU beds fyi

Indeed, but almost all health services are interlinked, for brevity and simplicity ICU capacity was an example I chose as a way of illustrating pressure on the health service from C19.

But it's not just ICU, Covid testing diverts labs from performing other testing for example

Stateofyou

timmyntc wrote: »

It's the fact that teachers and students in the same class are not classed as close contacts of confirmed case in the same class.
There is no logic behind it, and it is actively hurting our covid response and faciliating huge spread of the virus.

Try to raise it as an issue and you are dismissed or told that the spread is actually community driven (pubs/cafes/house parties)

In many cases there were NO close contacts identified. None in the "pod" (what a joke those are). Or maybe they did identify the pod as close contacts, but not the children sitting as close or closer in other pods. And not the SEN teacher that has been there working closely with the student(s). The teachers almost never being classed as close contact.

I think the reason for the different definition of a close contact in the education sector, is due to the shortage of subs, and the chaos that would follow from so many teachers and students having to quarantine and test.

So that leaves us with policy and decisions in a huge sector that is borne out of underfunding and resourcing, instead of implementing the best and safest policy we can and according to all the health bodies. Sickening tbh.

Cork2021

Look at this crap again from Ryan! gript(only found out it existed 2 days ago) which I think are off the wall could possibly be onto this! Nothing coming from the zero covid nuts to defend themselves.. I don’t know! But it’s seriously believable now!

https://twitter.com/eoinneylon/status/1364875153868550144?s=21

mloc123

Deleted User wrote: »

Since when did the number of twitter followers become a metric to judge the relevance of someones content?

Since trump

briancoolcat

I agree with the posters re Matt coopers guests sam mcconkey and Anthony staines the other evening talking down the vaccine and painting a very grim picture going forward. He should have someone equally qualified to counter debate their assertions as I feel it is doom mongering at best and maybe dangerous as some listeners will be making up their minds that the vaccine is not that worthwhile after all and decide not to bother with it. A few thousand texts in to the last word reminding Matt coopers that they are frightening people might spur him to get a counter debate going.

KrustyUCC

Cork2021 wrote: »

Look at this crap again from Ryan! gript(only found out it existed 2 days ago) which I think are off the wall could possibly be onto this! Nothing coming from the zero covid nuts to defend themselves.. I don’t know! But it’s seriously believable now!

https://twitter.com/eoinneylon/status/1364875153868550144?s=21

I have little time for the government but Ryan's predictions will be baseless as long as supply holds up

The government need to get the vaccine roll out right

Sanjuro

gmisk wrote: »

Sarah McInerney is co host of a prime drive time slot no?
She should have 100 percent got the slot given to Claire Byrne I will concede that.

I do miss Vincent Browne though.

Yeah, the Claire Byrne thing is pretty much what I'm basing that bit on! :pac:

Wolf359f

Cork2021 wrote: »

Look at this crap again from Ryan! gript(only found out it existed 2 days ago) which I think are off the wall could possibly be onto this! Nothing coming from the zero covid nuts to defend themselves.. I don’t know! But it’s seriously believable now!

https://twitter.com/eoinneylon/status/1364875153868550144?s=21

Michael Martin said they hope 40% of all adults by end of April, Ryan says it's unrealistic to have half the population by end of April. Nobody has said they expect half the population done by the end of April.
It's all in the article, shoddy journalism for sure.
These ****ers should be called out and fact checked at every opportunity.

gmisk

Sanjuro wrote: »

Yeah, the Claire Byrne thing is pretty much what I'm basing that bit on! :pac:

I agree she would have been much better in that slot.
But she still has a prominent time slot all be it as a co-host.

SusieBlue

MrMusician18 wrote: »

With all due respect, you are neither qualified nor have the information to credibly make that call. Aside from the first few weeks back in last March/April, you've been consistently calling for loosening of the restrictions.

The best way to get other services back is to reduce the covid burden on the health system, yet over half of the permanent ICU beds we have are filled with covid patients. Your proposal is to relax now, what do you think will happen then? What will the consequences be? It would hardly be further strain on the health system putting back access to services that you profess to care about?

Nope, I only started questioning things when the Roadmap to Easing Restrictions was announced in mid May 2020 and I noticed that after willingly enduring and supporting the longest and strictest lockdown in Europe, we also had the longest roadmap to reopen things.
It made me wonder why it was safe to go for a pint, get a haircut, or buy some non essential retail items in Italy (the European ground zero of covid) in May, when I couldn’t even get my dog groomed or walk more than 2km from my house here.
The cases were negligible and dropping by the day, and we threw away our best chance of giving people and the economy a little bit of breathing space before the winter surge.
We had no break here, our roadmap was so long that a lot of industries were barely open a few weeks before they were shut again and that’s how people became desensitised and fatigued from it all.

We’ve had the longest and strictest lockdown in Europe, yet we also have the most nursing home deaths per capita.
That alone should have people questioning if this monumental sacrifice we are all making is actually protecting the vulnerable and elderly, because it doesn’t seem to be saving their lives or stopping them from contracting the virus.

I agree that I have consistently criticised the governments response, but that’s because the government have continuously moved the goalposts.
It went from flattening the curve, to protecting the hospitals, to ‘having a meaningful Christmas’, to waiting for the vaccine, to waiting for the vaccine to be rolled out to the majority of citizens, to current rumours of going for zero covid.
All the while the boarders are wide open and we’re importing new strains by the day, because enforcing quarantine on incoming travellers would be ‘too harsh’.

Smear tests in GP clinics have absolutely nothing to do with ICU beds. Neither do mammograms or colonoscopies.
These screenings should never have been cancelled for as long as they were, and there is no justification for that. The backlog this has caused will account for many avoidable deaths in the future. This should be a huge cause of concern for everyone.

And while I appreciate the due respect, I am just as entitled to have an opinion and share it here as you are.

seamus

Wolf359f wrote: »

Michael Martin said they hope 40% of all adults by end of April, Ryan says it's unrealistic to have half the population by end of April. Nobody has said they expect half the population done by the end of April.
It's all in the article, shoddy journalism for sure.
These ****ers should be called out and fact checked at every opportunity.

Ryan is the same guy who suggested that Christmas could be delayed by a month to keep cases down.

He's a loon. They need to stop putting him on air.

lawred2

seamus wrote: »

Ryan is the same guy who suggested that Christmas could be delayed by a month to keep cases down.

He's a loon. They need to stop putting him on air.

He's giving them what they want

RTE acting like it's a private sector media operator

Doctor Jimbob

lawred2 wrote: »

He's giving them what they want

RTE acting like it's a private sector media operator

They've been going more and more down that road for a fair few years now. If that's the way they want to go, they can go fully commercial and do away with the licence fee.

Stateofyou

Stateofyou wrote: »

What are you illustrating there raind, particularly in reference to my question?

(But are they falling at the same rate as before the new dominant variant?

Does this not point to the issue we are going to soon have with the education sector going back, and with the higher transmissibility?)

It points to a sustained fall in transmission contributing to a sustained fall in hospitalisations which will translate to a sustained fall in ICU numbers.

Should the return to schools result in the fall in transmission halting, in a few weeks the hospitalisation and ICU numbers will stabilise at a lower level. The vaccines will drive this even lower as vulnerable populations get their vaccines.

Should transmission start to increase slowly, in a few weeks enough of the vulnerable should be vaccinated to ensure that at worst we will be looking at stable hospital numbers

Should a rapid resurgence emerge, which should not be the case given its only a portion of the measures that are being lifted, we will have both time to reverse course, and significant numbers of the most vulnerable protected through vaccination.

There is also the rates of infection among healthcare workers and hospital infections in general to consider - these have dropped to a very low level over the past few weeks as vaccines have rolled out. Throughout the pandemic healthcare workers have almost served as a reservoir for the virus as it is almost impossible to avoid them being exposed in healthcare settings. These have then seeded new community outbreaks as all have their own families and live in the community. No fault of anyone, its just one of the unavoidable sources. However, now that vaccination is nearing completion in this group, this should play into the overall R number and perhaps may counter much of the impact of the increased transmissibility of the virus

seamus

seamus wrote: »

Ryan is the same guy who suggested that Christmas could be delayed by a month to keep cases down.

He's a loon. They need to stop putting him on air.

Why does he even get airtime to begin with? He's a neuroscientist. A quick look on his Google Scholar page shows not a single paper in any way connected to virology.

TheDoctor

Luke O'Neill seems to be the only one getting air time that is giving out positive vibes these days.

While I dont fully agree with the way he goes on, its a refreshing balance to the constant negativity.

marno21

TheDoctor wrote: »

Luke O'Neill seems to be the only one getting air time that is giving out positive vibes these days.

While I dont fully agree with the way he goes on, its a refreshing balance to the constant negativity.

Hat tip to Kingston Mills too. He’s very much on Planet Reality when it comes to it with no agenda and you can tell he does his homework before he goes on air

Azatadine

Yes, Kingston Mills is my go-to.

From day 1.

Stateofyou

Deleted User wrote: »

It points to a sustained fall in transmission contributing to a sustained fall in hospitalisations which will translate to a sustained fall in ICU numbers.

Should the return to schools result in the fall in transmission halting, in a few weeks the hospitalisation and ICU numbers will stabilise at a lower level. The vaccines will drive this even lower as vulnerable populations get their vaccines.

Should transmission start to increase slowly, in a few weeks enough of the vulnerable should be vaccinated to ensure that at worst we will be looking at stable hospital numbers

Should a rapid resurgence emerge, which should not be the case given its only a portion of the measures that are being lifted, we will have both time to reverse course, and significant numbers of the most vulnerable protected through vaccination.

There is also the rates of infection among healthcare workers and hospital infections in general to consider - these have dropped to a very low level over the past few weeks as vaccines have rolled out. Throughout the pandemic healthcare workers have almost served as a reservoir for the virus as it is almost impossible to avoid them being exposed in healthcare settings. These have then seeded new community outbreaks as all have their own families and live in the community. No fault of anyone, its just one of the unavoidable sources. However, now that vaccination is nearing completion in this group, this should play into the overall R number and perhaps may counter much of the impact of the increased transmissibility of the virus

I hope your projections bear out. But who is getting vaccinated in the wider population, especially those connected to the education sector? I don't understand how vaccines will help here when they're not available yet to most of us.

The question that came to mind, is many (most?) people in the education sector will be long waiting for a vaccine yet, so how do they have protection as schools reopen, and in turn the wider community they are a part of, most of whom are not yet vaccinated?

ICU numbers are just one part of this. Preventing serious illness is surely as important, and the knock on effect of those with serious side effects will also have on our healthcare resources and impact many people's quality of life.

wakka12

Everybody over 60 in Israel and the UAE are fully vaccinated a good long time now. Still quite a few deaths being reported though,nothing too high but more than you'd think with all the elderly safe and out of the picture, I wonder is it because populations in both countries became very relaxed after the elderly were vaccinated and it's kind of ripping through the rest of the population now..maybe the Irish government actually have good reason for waiting until most of the population is vaccinated, not just the most elderly, before dropping restrictions?

plodder

Hardyn wrote: »

Why does he even get airtime to begin with? He's a neurologist. A quick look on his Google Scholar page shows not a single paper in any way connected to virology.

He has a PhD in Neuroscience but he's not a neurologist as he isn't a medical doctor.

Cork2021

Am I reading this right? An RTE journalist tweeting this and then Prime Times Mark Coughlan retweeting it!! Has the penny dropped??

https://twitter.com/edmundheaphy/status/1364644094664986627?s=21

Cork2021

What a condescending prick! No positivity aloud!!

https://twitter.com/astaines/status/1364898134187520002?s=21

plodder

plodder wrote: »

He has a PhD in Neuroscience but he's not a neurologist as he isn't a medical doctor.

My bad I meant Neuroscientist.

Doctor Jimbob

Cork2021 wrote: »

What a condescending prick! No positivity aloud!!

https://twitter.com/astaines/status/1364898134187520002?s=21

NPHET's letter from the 18th of February states the best estimate of the R number is 0.65-0.85. Is there more recent data contradicting that, or has Staines taken the upper end of range and whacked on an extra 0.05 to round it up to 0.9?

titan18

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

NPHET's letter from the 18th of February states the best estimate of the R number is 0.65-0.85. Is there more recent data contradicting that, or has Staines taken the upper end of range and whacked on an extra 0.05 to round it up to 0.9?

I'd assume the latter. Surprise he didn't say its higher than that even

Stateofyou

Stateofyou wrote: »

I hope your projections bear out. But who is getting vaccinated in the wider population, especially those connected to the education sector? I don't understand how vaccines will help here when they're not available yet to most of us.

The question that came to mind, is many (most?) people in the education sector will be long waiting for a vaccine yet, so how do they have protection as schools reopen, and in turn the wider community they are a part of, most of whom are not yet vaccinated?

ICU numbers are just one part of this. Preventing serious illness is surely as important, and the knock on effect of those with serious side effects will also have on our healthcare resources and impact many people's quality of life.

The people most impacted, after healthcare workers, will be the first vaccinated. We would not have a lockdown if this virus only impacted otherwise healthy people under the age of 65