Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

Plumbthedepths

Polar101 wrote: »

In fairness, he is the minister for higher education, so I'd expect him to comment on matters relating to university students, rather than what's happening in a church.

So which minister should comment on mass goers?

timmyntc

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

A poster said hospitals and icu admissions are more prevalent younger people than deaths. The health service will be stressed if we open.

You said all that matters are deaths heres the stats.

I said that the data about deaths is very one sided and I was meaning that its only of value if you want to ignore truth and open up.

I can't find total data about the age of hospital admissions but during a given period 43% of admissions were under 65.

I believe its a higher % for icu admissions but that's off the top of my head.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/amp/ireland/hse-chief-says-covid-19-concern-in-hospitals-at-highest-level-ever-1068365.html

Deaths are of course important but we are very capable of overwhelming the hospital system with cases in under 65s. Thats key to me.

Once full medical care resumes the one thing I want more than anything is that routine and urgent elective procedures aren't stopped again.

CSO dont seem to have cumulative data for hospital & ICU admissions (or I cant find it) but from the week by week it looks like hospitalisation are split about 40:60 in terms of over 65s, whereas ICU is closer to 50:50 split (over 80 they dont really get put in ICU).

Again while they dont have data for underlying conditions getting hospitalised, I would imagine its a signficant factor.

timmyntc

Wolf359f wrote: »

Just because you have ~30% less being hospitalized doesn't mean we can continue on and use that 30% extra capacity to cater for more Covid cases in hospital.

OP wanted 70+ vaccinated and open up. I made a comment about under 70's accounting for about 70% of all hospital admissions and a higher % for ICU admissions. I never referenced deaths. I was talking about hospital admissions.

In fairness "open up" means different things to different people. I wouldnt advocate dropping all restrictions, but going to Level 3 at the least is achievable with our vaccinations ongoing.

amandstu wrote: »

Do those numbers feel right? Any comments?

Makes sense. Heart disease, hypertension, and BMI > 40 are some of the underlying conditions tracked by CSO. Heart disease representing most of the deaths. (40% of all, moreso as a % of all underlying conditions)

josip

Does anyone know why Sneem received the number of doses it did?
Is 300 the minimum number of doses in a delivery?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0305/1201119-sneem-vaccine/

CIARAN_BOYLE

josip wrote: »

Does anyone know why Sneem received the number of doses it did?
Is 300 the minimum number of doses in a delivery?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0305/1201119-sneem-vaccine/

There was talk of a high minimum delivery number before.

Various GPs were encouraged to buddy up with a local practice if they didn't have enough patients eligible for vaccination.

I guess if they couldn't buddy up a delivery was arranged.

MrMusician18

Amirani wrote: »

Yep, the same people probably constantly demanding open disclosure and accusing Holohan of trying to "cover up" CervicalCheck issues by having a private inquiry before making everything public.

You either want a paternalistic medical culture that tries to treat people with blissful ignorance, or you want one that is open and honest about things. There's no in between. You can't have both.

Indeed you can't have both, and I this openness hopefully it's a result and learning from the cervical check scandal.

Give women all the information and let them decide for themselves.

SeaMermaid

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

A poster said hospitals and icu admissions are more prevalent younger people than deaths. The health service will be stressed if we open.

You said all that matters are deaths heres the stats.

I said that the data about deaths is very one sided and I was meaning that its only of value if you want to ignore truth and open up.

I can't find total data about the age of hospital admissions but during a given period 43% of admissions were under 65.

I believe its a higher % for icu admissions but that's off the top of my head.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/amp/ireland/hse-chief-says-covid-19-concern-in-hospitals-at-highest-level-ever-1068365.html

Deaths are of course important but we are very capable of overwhelming the hospital system with cases in under 65s. Thats key to me.

Once full medical care resumes the one thing I want more than anything is that routine and urgent elective procedures aren't stopped again.

+1 to this.

Some people see the vaccines as an end to this pandemic and the vaccines will bring about an end but just not yet. The vaccines are new and so far the priority groups for roll out are healthcsre workers and elderly people. Health care workers and care homes were done and its now going into the aging population in communities. Many people won't see a vaccine for months and say the under 70s or the under 65s will still be vulnerable to the virus.

The tallaght hospital investigation documentary on rte highlighted young adults in their 20s waiting to be admitted to the hospital for covid care. There were other adults in the or 30s and 40s too. So far the lockdown and suppression of the virus has shielded many people from exposure of the virus and that's why there's isn't more get ill or in hospital.

If we opened up fully forgetting about the virus, we would be like Brazil with mass graves being dug. There's no appetite for that in Ireland.

Roger_007

Amirani wrote: »

A decision wouldn't have been made to list them in the deaths.

The process all along in Ireland has been to classify Possible, Probable and Confirmed deaths where Covid is present as Covid deaths, and then de-notify as necessary once more information is available. This is automatic.

So purely because Covid is involved, it means that these will automatically be counted as possible Covid deaths until a coroner determines otherwise. This isn't new and has been the process since last April or so.

Would it not be much clearer and more honest to break the numbers down into categories:-
1. Where Covid is present and confirmed by a positive test.
2. Where Covid is suspected to be present but not confirmed by a positive test.

One thing we have learned over the past year is that most people who have symptoms of Covid are in fact Covid negative. This must also be true of people ‘suspected’ to have died from Covid.

Eod100

josip wrote: »

Does anyone know why Sneem received the number of doses it did?
Is 300 the minimum number of doses in a delivery?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0305/1201119-sneem-vaccine/

Was wondering the same. Was thinking any extras could be diverted to over 85s who haven't got it yet in other parts of Kerry but maybe not as simple as that.

timmyntc

SeaMermaid wrote: »

+1 to this.

If we opened up fully forgetting about the virus, we would be like Brazil with mass graves being dug. There's no appetite for that in Ireland.

Who is advocating that?
People want an end to the ongoing level 5 lockdown we've been in Since Dec and will be in till May at least.
People want a near-normal summer, which is definitely achievable given the most vulnerable are vaccinated or are in the process.

timsey tiger

timmyntc wrote: »

This is up to end of January:



82% actually had underlying condition as it turns out. Still quite high.
Once over 65s, and all underlying conditions are vaccinated, hard to see any reason not to reopen to a level 3 at the very least.

Sounds impressive, but pretty meaningless unless you also tell us what proportion of the population have an underlying condition. Isn't being overweight one? That would get you 60% of the population straight away.

Plumbthedepths

SeaMermaid wrote: »

If we opened up fully forgetting about the virus, we would be like Brazil with mass graves being dug. There's no appetite for that in Ireland.

Welcome to Boards Dr McConkey,. ;-)

Wolf359f

timmyntc wrote: »

In fairness "open up" means different things to different people. I wouldnt advocate dropping all restrictions, but going to Level 3 at the least is achievable with our vaccinations ongoing.

True, but when the OP was using the Flu hospitalizing 1400 in a year, I can only imagine what their definition of "open up" is.

We've another month to keep suppressing the figures, each day more and more get vaccinated and more and more are being discharged from hospital & ICU. So going to level 3 seems plausible. May be better getting non-essential retail and hair dressers back first, followed a few weeks later with restaurants etc.

Just as long as the powers to be follow the data and see after ~4 weeks of a single dose of a vaccine there's a notable drop in transmission and high degree of protection. I'd ****ing hate if they play the "wait 12 weeks for the second dose and a further few weeks to be fully protected" etc...
People won't have the patience for that kind of thinking!

timsey tiger

Roger_007 wrote: »

Would it not be much clearer and more honest to break the numbers down into categories:-
1. Where Covid is present and confirmed by a positive test.
2. Where Covid is suspected to be present but not confirmed by a positive test.

One thing we have learned over the past year is that most people who have symptoms of Covid are in fact Covid negative. This must also be true of people ‘suspected’ to have died from Covid.

Yea, because people die from colds everyday of the week.

Plumbthedepths

426 confirmed Covid cases in hospital, 102 of that number in ICU. Down again on yesterday's figures.

timmyntc

timsey tiger wrote: »

Sounds impressive, but pretty meaningless unless you also tell us what proportion of the population have an underlying condition. Isn't being overweight one? That would get you 60% of the population straight away.

No, only a BMI over 40 is counted.
The CSO is clear about which conditions they record.

Roger_007

timsey tiger wrote: »

Yea, because people die from colds everyday of the week.

Actually they do if they are very frail already. It doesn’t take much to tip someone over the edge if they are close to the edge anyway.

Plumbthedepths

Construction challenging the restrictions. I think Ireland is the only country in Europe to close most of construction.
https://www.independent.ie/news/state-faces-legal-challenge-to-discriminatory-covid-19-construction-restrictions-40162601.html

fits

Eod100 wrote: »

Was wondering the same. Was thinking any extras could be diverted to over 85s who haven't got it yet in other parts of Kerry but maybe not as simple as that.

GP practices seem to get it in batches. In smaller practices the excess given out to those in next cohorts. I’ve heard of folks over 75 getting it from my own gp

timsey tiger

Roger_007 wrote: »

Actually they do if they are very frail already. It doesn’t take much to tip someone over the edge if they are close to the edge anyway.

Wow, so it is no worse than the common cold now is it? I think I'll leave it there with you.

Plumbthedepths

timsey tiger wrote: »

Wow, so it is no worse than the common cold now is it? I think I'll leave it there with you.

I believe it was you who raised the issue of the common cold the OP just indulged you.

bb1234567

completedit wrote: »

Hearing that in Bulgaria everything but nightclubs are now open. Businesses supposed to be at 50% capacity but Sofia has pretty much returned to normal. Honestly, we're such a passive country(for better or worse)

Well let's see how it goes first before throwing around the insults!
Bulgaria has the highest rate of excess deaths in the EU and is now going into another wave
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/bulgaria/

pc7

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Construction challenging the restrictions. I think Ireland is the only country in Europe to close most of construction.
https://www.independent.ie/news/state-faces-legal-challenge-to-discriminatory-covid-19-construction-restrictions-40162601.html

I would say they are starting to feel pressure from many areas, Decathalon and others starting to apply it now publicly (I would think its been happening all round). https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/major-foreign-retailers-express-frustration-at-length-of-irish-shutdown-1.4501611

SeaMermaid

timmyntc wrote: »

Who is advocating that?
People want an end to the ongoing level 5 lockdown we've been in Since Dec and will be in till May at least.
People want a near-normal summer, which is definitely achievable given the most vulnerable are vaccinated or are in the process.

The key to a safe and successful reopening will be get the level of virus transmissions down to as low as possible to give the virus less chances to transmit. Reopening now from an average daily count of approx 400 to 500, will be a disaster for spread. Ongoing level 5 is 5hit and I have my own difficulties but risking the virus and potentially contributing to spread is not the answer. It's all about stopping the movements of people to give the virus less chances to transmit right now.

Plumbthedepths

pc7 wrote: »

I would say they are starting to feel pressure from many areas, Decathalon and others starting to apply it now publicly (I would think its been happening all round). https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/major-foreign-retailers-express-frustration-at-length-of-irish-shutdown-1.4501611

There are many sectors both commercial and recreational that are closed with little to no justification. I'm not surprised businesses are challenging the government. There is a very significant bill building and it will have to be paid. Half a million people sitting at home on PUP is not sustainable.

BorneTobyWilde

TheDoctor wrote: »

Hospital numbers at 8pm

Total 427 (down from 472 last night)
ICU 103 (down from 108 last night)

Last Thursday
Total 585
ICU 140

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That's some change in hospital figures

Fantastic to see

Would be more fantastic if they lived, I'd hardly cheer if ICU number was 0 today but deaths was 103

timmyntc

SeaMermaid wrote: »

The key to a safe and successful reopening will be get the level of virus transmissions down to as low as possible to give the virus less chances to transmit. Reopening now from an average daily count of approx 400 to 500, will be a disaster for spread. Ongoing level 5 is 5hit and I have my own difficulties but risking the virus and potentially contributing to spread is not the answer. It's all about stopping the movements of people to give the virus less chances to transmit right now.

As has been previously explained - ongoing vaccinations will reduce the risk of hospitalisation from covid day by day - so case numbers become less and less relevant as vaccinations grow. We are vaccinating the most at risk population (65+ and underlying conditions) as they are disproportionally affected and represent far more risk than the rest of population.

Theres no reason we need a target anywhere near as low as we did last year before opening. The other thing to consider is that vaccinations also reduce transmission - which brings R number even lower, again showing that we can tolerate a much higher number of cases than last year.

The key to a safe and successful reopening is vaccinations and not going from 0-100 in one go. But if we stay at 0 for too long, people will just break the restrictions and you'll see more house parties and other "deplorable" events and gatherings. Not to mention the protests. We need a staged reopening and we need it now.

Plumbthedepths

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Would be more fantastic if they lived, I'd hardly cheer if ICU number was 0 today but deaths was 103

The ICU reduction were discharges not deaths, btw it's now down to 102 in ICU.

pc7

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

There are many sectors both commercial and recreational that are closed with little to no justification. I'm not surprised businesses are challenging the government. There is a very significant bill building and it will have to be paid. Half a million people sitting at home on PUP is not sustainable.

Yes, difficult decisions to be made, too slow you face people ignoring it and trades going blackmarket etc. too fast and if another sh1t show followed in terms of the hospitals/deaths etc they are damned then too. Its not easy.



Personally I am hoping for retail to be opened, construction back etc April 5th, then hopefully outside hospitality May 5th. But I don't get paid the big bucks to make the decisions. (Thankfully ).



I just want to go for a coffee or a bit of lunch somewhere (even outside) with my mam, first world problems I know.

SeaMermaid

timmyntc wrote: »

As has been previously explained - ongoing vaccinations will reduce the risk of hospitalisation from covid day by day - so case numbers become less and less relevant as vaccinations grow. We are vaccinating the most at risk population (65+ and underlying conditions) as they are disproportionally affected and represent far more risk than the rest of population.

Theres no reason we need a target anywhere near as low as we did last year before opening. The other thing to consider is that vaccinations also reduce transmission - which brings R number even lower, again showing that we can tolerate a much higher number of cases than last year.

The key to a safe and successful reopening is vaccinations and not going from 0-100 in one go. But if we stay at 0 for too long, people will just break the restrictions and you'll see more house parties and other "deplorable" events and gatherings. Not to mention the protests. We need a staged reopening and we need it now.

The vaccination programme currently is being aimed at the elderly in communities. That is the current group for vaccinations but the majority of spread is occurring from younger adults and under 65s. I think the median age of cases recently is approximately 41. Vaccinating the older population is not going to curb the spread of the virus. The virus will still move and circulate in the population and under the 70 age group mark. Many of these adults are far down the list of vaccinations. The key to a safe and successful reopening will be the suppression of virus in communities.

FlubberJones

pc7 wrote: »

I would say they are starting to feel pressure from many areas, Decathalon and others starting to apply it now publicly (I would think its been happening all round). https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/major-foreign-retailers-express-frustration-at-length-of-irish-shutdown-1.4501611

Pleased to see this, the country is being highlighted for the over the top approach to managing COVID... probably because the leadership are so inept they know nothing else but lockdowns.... Oh and piss poor vaccine rollout efforts

Klonker

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Would be more fantastic if they lived, I'd hardly cheer if ICU number was 0 today but deaths was 103

ICU spare capacity is an important metric in terms of dealing with this virus and one of the metrics used to determine when we can ease restrictions and by how much. As cold as it may sound it doesn't actually matter if they lowering of numbers is due to a death or discharge. The important thing is that person is giving the best chance as possible to recover and that no triage decisions have to be made in terms of ICU beds. Thankfully I don't believe that has been the case in Ireland so far in this pandemic.

Plumbthedepths

FlubberJones wrote: »

Pleased to see this, the country is being highlighted for the over the top approach to managing COVID... probably because the leadership are so inept they know nothing else but lockdowns.... Oh and piss poor vaccine rollout efforts

The 'leadership' is hiding behind Nphet. Convenient mudguard for incompetent politicians.

timmyntc

SeaMermaid wrote: »

The vaccination programme currently is being aimed at the elderly in communities. That is the current group for vaccinations but the majority of spread is occurring from younger adults and under 65s. I think the median age of cases recently is approximately 41. Vaccinating the older population is not going to curb the spread of the virus. The virus will still move and circulate in the population and under the 70 age group mark. Many of these adults are far down the list of vaccinations. The key to a safe and successful reopening will be the suppression of virus in communities.

Yes but those younger people are much less likely to end up in hospital or dead.
And hospital acquired infection should be dropping massively with all HCWs vaccinated.

You seem to think that once we're all vaccinated that covid will disappear - it wont. It's here to stay, but once the at risk groups are vaccinated it will be just an inconvenience. There is no point trying to suppress it massively once the at risk groups are vaccinated.

francogarbanzo

SeaMermaid wrote: »

The vaccination programme currently is being aimed at the elderly in communities. That is the current group for vaccinations but the majority of spread is occurring from younger adults and under 65s. I think the median age of cases recently is approximately 41. Vaccinating the older population is not going to curb the spread of the virus. The virus will still move and circulate in the population and under the 70 age group mark. Many of these adults are far down the list of vaccinations. The key to a safe and successful reopening will be the suppression of virus in communities.

We don't need to curb the spread of the virus. We need to prevent the most vulnerable from needing to go to the hospital, which is what the vaccine does.

fits

francogarbanzo wrote: »

We don't need to curb the spread of the virus. We need to prevent the most vulnerable from needing to go to the hospital, which is what the vaccine does.

Yes we do. I don’t fancy catching any virus with unpredictable health effects. I certainly don’t want to take chances with long covid. Restrictions are absolutely necessary until majority of population is vaccinated like it or not.

Sweet.Science

fits wrote: »

Yes we do. I don’t fancy catching any virus with unpredictable health effects. I certainly don’t want to take chances with long covid. Restrictions are absolutely necessary until majority of population is vaccinated like it or not.

Level 5 restrictions ? If so you are incorrect

Multipass

fits wrote: »

Yes we do. I don’t fancy catching any virus with unpredictable health effects. I certainly don’t want to take chances with long covid. Restrictions are absolutely necessary until majority of population is vaccinated like it or not.

Like it or not once the vulnerable are vaccinated the game is up. The vast majority of people will be returning to normal life. If you want to avoid a mild disease you’ll have to isolate yourself.

Doctor Jimbob

pc7 wrote: »

Yes, difficult decisions to be made, too slow you face people ignoring it and trades going blackmarket etc. too fast and if another sh1t show followed in terms of the hospitals/deaths etc they are damned then too. Its not easy.



Personally I am hoping for retail to be opened, construction back etc April 5th, then hopefully outside hospitality May 5th. But I don't get paid the big bucks to make the decisions. (Thankfully ).



I just want to go for a coffee or a bit of lunch somewhere (even outside) with my mam, first world problems I know.

I can't see any reason not to open all construction and click and collect retail from tomorrow tbh - and do away with the fecking 5k as well. Hairdressers, etc on April 5th and like you say, outdoor hospitality in May.

Plumbthedepths

fits wrote: »

Yes we do. I don’t fancy catching any virus with unpredictable health effects. I certainly don’t want to take chances with long covid. Restrictions are absolutely necessary until majority of population is vaccinated like it or not.

Huge bang of selfishness off this comment.

timmyntc

fits wrote: »

Yes we do. I don’t fancy catching any virus with unpredictable health effects. I certainly don’t want to take chances with long covid. Restrictions are absolutely necessary until majority of population is I am vaccinated like it or not.

Fixed your post

iamwhoiam

fits wrote: »

Yes we do. I don’t fancy catching any virus with unpredictable health effects. I certainly don’t want to take chances with long covid. Restrictions are absolutely necessary until majority of population is vaccinated like it or not.

You can always restrict yourself and stay away from public places I guess

MrMusician18

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

There are many sectors both commercial and recreational that are closed with little to no justification. I'm not surprised businesses are challenging the government. There is a very significant bill building and it will have to be paid. Half a million people sitting at home on PUP is not sustainable.

You know the justification, it's been repeated a thousand times already. It's to reduce mobility and reduce the opportunity for interactions. This can result in what seems like unfairness in what can open and what can not.

One industry being the same medium risk as another is almost irrelevant in the calculation on whether it's permitted. It comes down to how essential it is. That's why supermarkets are open but shoe shops are closed.

alexonhisown

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I can't see any reason not to open all construction and click and collect retail from tomorrow tbh - and do away with the fecking 5k as well. Hairdressers, etc on April 5th and like you say, outdoor hospitality in May.

I agree with everything here except hairdressers shouldn't open before outdoor hospitality

Doctor Jimbob

alexonhisown wrote: »

I agree with everything here except hairdressers shouldn't open before outdoor hospitality

My logic was they're a more controlled environment despite being indoors but yeah, there's an argument for flipping those around or even opening both at the same time all right.

Absolute madness the level of restrictions we're under compared to other countries.

MerlinSouthDub

615 Swabs
3.7% + rate

20% lower swabs than last Friday. Good progress

timmyntc

SeaMermaid wrote: »

What is mild about an infection that can go on and result in SARS?

Thats a blatant lie.
The virus is SARS-COV-2, the disease is COVID-19.

It is nowhere near comparable to SARS, in terms of outcomes. Totally different.

Eod100

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1367850646142152707

Wolf359f

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

615 Swabs
3.7% + rate

20% lower swabs than last Friday. Good progress

Shame were gonna have the same cohort saying it's increased, restrictions are not working etc...
Despite week on week reductions.
I wonder what the last 7 day average of swabs compared to the previous 7 is.

fits

iamwhoiam wrote: »

You can always restrict yourself and stay away from public places I guess

If this is allowed to run out of control in <65s the hospitals will still be full.