Dublin Marathon 2021

rovers_runner

FinnC wrote: »

Any mention of those who paid for last years race series that never happened does it carry over for another year?

https://twitter.com/dublinmarathon/status/1389905279106568193?s=20

rovers_runner

F*ck that for a game of soldiers anyway, bad sign of things to come for the rest of the year.

Van.Bosch

rovers_runner wrote: »

F*ck that for a game of soldiers anyway, bad sign of things to come for the rest of the year.

Amsterdam is on a week before - they are allowing 12,500 into a football stadium in June so I think a marathon in October should be doable.

jams100

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Amsterdam is on a week before - they are allowing 12,500 into a football stadium in June so I think a marathon in October should be doable.

But we have Dr Holohan
Golf clubs aren't even allowed have competitions until the 7th June, so I mean common sense doesn't seem to prevail these days.

Anyway I'll keep my fingers crossed it does actually go ahead this year, need something to keep us all focused

corcaigh07

The country should be in a good place by June 25th. I'm hopeful anyway!

daydorunrun

From the Irish Times-

They remain optimistic - https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/other-sports/dublin-marathon-optimistic-for-25-000-runners-this-october-1.4555926

The Davestator

If around 80% of adults are to be vaccinated by the end of June, that still leaves 4 MONTHS to catch up and allow outdoor events such as this to go ahead.

There really should not be any doubt that this can go ahead and it's a sign of how much we have all been conditioned by the 'abundance of caution' that we are pessimistic.

daydorunrun

The Davestator wrote: »

If around 80% of adults are to be vaccinated by the end of June, that still leaves 4 MONTHS to catch up and allow outdoor events such as this to go ahead.

There really should not be any doubt that this can go ahead and it's a sign of how much we have all been conditioned by the 'abundance of caution' that we are pessimistic.

But, but, but Variants. I'm not coming out from under my bed until somebody can give me written confirmation I will never get sick and will live forever.

healy1835

I haven't seen any mention of the GFA entry process that had started last Spring but obviously never reached a conclusion. If DCM does go ahead in some shape or form will there be GFA places allocated? And if so, will they be allocated from last years applicants?

geodesic

The Davestator wrote: »

If around 80% of adults are to be vaccinated by the end of June, that still leaves 4 MONTHS to catch up and allow outdoor events such as this to go ahead.

The official goal (which is still in doubt) is have to have 80% of the adult population offered an appointment for their first jab by the end of June. It'll be at least another month after that, probably longer, before 80% of adults are actually vaccinated.

The current trajectory of vaccination is excruciatingly slow, averaging less than 24,000 jabs a day for the past month. At that rate it will take another 34 weeks to cover the everyone 16 years old and up.

TBH this seems like a sensible approach from the Dublin Marathon folks. Leave the door open to a pared down congregated event (no-one travelling from outside Ireland, no fresh entries to replace the 2020 people who opted for refunds, randomly select say half the remaining roll-overs from last year, widely staggered wave starts etc). But also plan for the virtual event, which may well end up as the only event.

Burkie1203

geodesic wrote: »

The official goal (which is still in doubt) is have to have 80% of the adult population offered an appointment for their first jab by the end of June. It'll be at least another month after that, probably longer, before 80% of adults are actually vaccinated.

The current trajectory of vaccination is excruciatingly slow, averaging less than 24,000 jabs a day for the past month. At that rate it will take another 34 weeks to cover the everyone 16 years old and up.

TBH this seems like a sensible approach from the Dublin Marathon folks. Leave the door open to a pared down congregated event (no-one travelling from outside Ireland, no fresh entries to replace the 2020 people who opted for refunds, randomly select say half the remaining roll-overs from last year, widely staggered wave starts etc). But also plan for the virtual event, which may well end up as the only event.

Cannot just randomly select half the roll over entrants. It will have to be all or nothing (excluding overseas entrants) to be anywhere close to financially viable. I also wonder have they considered a route change for 2021

If govt are going to aim for test events with 10-15k in a stadium by mid summer, the same numbers can run a marathon in October.

geodesic

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Cannot just randomly select half the roll over entrants. It will have to be all or nothing (excluding overseas entrants) to be anywhere close to financially viable.

Well, maybe. Though a few counterpoints spring to mind:

* the DCM has been run successfully with far fewer entrants in the past (granted costs such as insurance have skyrocketed since then)

* most people with a rollover entry from 2020 who are not selected are unlikely to create a stink about getting their money back immediately, in fact they're very likely to stump up another 15 euros to run the virtual event

* the whole virtual race series can be run at low cost and will likely generate a surplus that could cross-subsidize the physical event

* many people selected to run would be happy to pony up another say 50 quid on top of their entry money already paid to cover additional COVID costs

* DCM could max out the merch as they did last year (I bought a hoodie, rain jacket, 2 beanies, and 4 tshirts ... then again, I'm a sucker for that kinda stuff)

* DCM could shave some extraneous costs, like the blingy medal

* if it's cancelled again this year, the whole tradition will lose momentum for future years, eating into future revenue ... conversely getting the running community back in the saddle this year will solidify the brand and bolster future revenue

* KBC could be hit up for some extra sponsor money... oh, wait

Point is it could be doable in a pared down form with some creativity.

Cheers,
Eoghan

pudgeydev

From what I can see, anyone who has an entry from 2020 has been automatically moved to 2021.

I can see it in My Orders from Eventmaster.

Probably doesn't leave much room for additional entrants if 2020 was sold out, my guess would be that there wasn't a significant amount of people looking for refunds... could be wrong!

FinnC

I can see another lottery alright between those that have an entry since last year. Anyone then that had an entry and doesn’t get selected will be able carry over until 2022 for guaranteed entry. It would be disappointing not to be selected but most reasonable people would understand I’m sure.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see a change of route also.

sk8board

geodesic wrote: »

Well, maybe. Though a few counterpoints spring to mind:

* the DCM has been run successfully with far fewer entrants in the past (granted costs such as insurance have skyrocketed since then)

* most people with a rollover entry from 2020 who are not selected are unlikely to create a stink about getting their money back immediately, in fact they're very likely to stump up another 15 euros to run the virtual event

* the whole virtual race series can be run at low cost and will likely generate a surplus that could cross-subsidize the physical event

* many people selected to run would be happy to pony up another say 50 quid on top of their entry money already paid to cover additional COVID costs

* DCM could max out the merch as they did last year (I bought a hoodie, rain jacket, 2 beanies, and 4 tshirts ... then again, I'm a sucker for that kinda stuff)

* DCM could shave some extraneous costs, like the blingy medal

* if it's cancelled again this year, the whole tradition will lose momentum for future years, eating into future revenue ... conversely getting the running community back in the saddle this year will solidify the brand and bolster future revenue

* KBC could be hit up for some extra sponsor money... oh, wait

Point is it could be doable in a pared down form with some creativity.

Cheers,
Eoghan

I’m not trying to define a runner versus a participant, but the DCM is a street entertainment event for the city and spectators really, which happens to have runners taking part.
So so many of the participants value the entertainment, vibe, spectators, medal and finisher shirt far more than their time, and just want to cover the distance.
If it runs, I reckon it can only be either everyone, or else just the elites on a Phoenix park loop.

pudgeydev

pudgeydev wrote: »

From what I can see, anyone who has an entry from 2020 has been automatically moved to 2021.

I can see it in My Orders from Eventmaster.

Probably doesn't leave much room for additional entrants if 2020 was sold out, my guess would be that there wasn't a significant amount of people looking for refunds... could be wrong!

Attached image

geodesic

pudgeydev wrote: »

Attached image

Interestingly mine now has a big green 'Cancel & Refund Tickets' button enabled.

pudgeydev

Ah, so does mine when I go into the order.

I'll be keeping mine anyhow

geodesic

pudgeydev wrote: »

I'll be keeping mine anyhow

Yeap, me too ... worst case a guaranteed entry for 2022.

Consonata

I don't have a 2021 entry currently, so I'm guessing there is little chance of me getting a hold of one out of refunds?

geodesic

Consonata wrote: »

I don't have a 2021 entry currently, so I'm guessing there is little chance of me getting a hold of one out of refunds?

Similar question asked on twitter ... https://twitter.com/dublinmarathon/status/1389917140044636164

Bananaleaf

FinnC wrote: »

I can see another lottery alright between those that have an entry since last year. Anyone then that had an entry and doesn’t get selected will be able carry over until 2022 for guaranteed entry. It would be disappointing not to be selected but most reasonable people would understand I’m sure.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see a change of route also.

If they are considering this, would be good if they could offer the option of a deferral to 2022 first, and then if enough don't take them up on it they can thin out the crowd via a lottery.

I'd prefer not to run it this year and wait until next year. However, if the only options I have are run it in 2021 or take a refund, then I'll run it this year.

franciscanpunk

If it a cost issue with running it with lower numbers i think they should just offer people the option of refund, defer until 2022 or pay extra to enter a lottery for a place in reduced 2021 event. if you dont get a place in the lotto, then you are back to the refund or defer option.


If Belfast goes ahead it surely will too

event

If they go ahead with it I'd hope a few things:

If its reduced capacity, anyone with an entry from 2020 who doesn't get in to this one gets in to 2022.

Anyone who is offered a place can defer themselves to 2022.

kilns

As an Irish person living abroad but with an entry, despite me coming back to Ireland in July for month I would be happy to accept a deferral until 2022 and for this October I would look closer to home (Paris or Frankfurt) for another option.

sk8board

How much of a tourist marathon is Dublin usually? 20%?
As the marathon is a weekend city street entertainment event, the business case is also based on inbound tourist runners staying for 2-3 nights, and maybe taking their family or partners for support.
It’s a big event for the city economy.

If they wanted the marathon to run just for continuity reasons and have a winner, they’ll do an elite only marathon.
A reduced size of domestic only runners would need to be heavily subsidised - and justified.
Playing devils advocate - The covid recommendations will say that runners can run any day, all lockdown, where so many other sports couldn’t - they just can’t race.

PCX

sk8board wrote: »

How much of a tourist marathon is Dublin usually? 20%?
As the marathon is a weekend city street entertainment event, the business case is also based on inbound tourist runners staying for 2-3 nights, and maybe taking their family or partners for support.
It’s a big event for the city economy.

If they wanted the marathon to run just for continuity reasons and have a winner, they’ll do an elite only marathon.
A reduced size of domestic only runners would need to be heavily subsidised - and justified.
Playing devils advocate - The covid recommendations will say that runners can run any day, all lockdown, where so many other sports couldn’t - they just can’t race.

We have to start getting back to normal some time even if we have to be cautious.

Dublins economy will benefit from domestic travel to the marathon too. I'm sure many Irish runners from outside of the pale book hotels and bring family along for support. They also shop and eat meals in restaurants. Given many people will not have a foreign holiday that is even more likely to be the case this year.

A fairly big portion of the domestic marathon runners would be raising money for charity. Cancelling the event or having it as elite only will eat into important revenue streams for charities across Ireland.

sk8board

PCX wrote: »

We have to start getting back to normal some time even if we have to be cautious.

Dublins economy will benefit from domestic travel to the marathon too. I'm sure many Irish runners from outside of the pale book hotels and bring family along for support. They also shop and eat meals in restaurants. Given many people will not have a foreign holiday that is even more likely to be the case this year.

A fairly big portion of the domestic marathon runners would be raising money for charity. Cancelling the event or having it as elite only will eat into important revenue streams for charities across Ireland.

Very good point about the charities. Again though, it reinforces the point that the marathon is actually far more than just the needs of 18k runners.
In many ways, it’s an ideal large outdoor test event for reopening. We’re years away from a full house at a concert in the Point otherwise.

Burkie1203

sk8board wrote: »

Very good point about the charities. Again though, it reinforces the point that the marathon is actually far more than just the needs of 18k runners.
In many ways, it’s an ideal large outdoor test event for reopening. We’re years away from a full house at a concert in the Point otherwise.

Govt are talking about 12-15000 at Croker or Aviva by July. if that's the case then marathon goes ahead.

inthehole1

What is the story with anyone that had applied for
the gfa entry last year,will there be a way to get an entry
this way if the marathon goes ahead

seant5215

inthehole1 wrote: »

What is the story with anyone that had applied for
the gfa entry last year,will there be a way to get an entry
this way if the marathon goes ahead

Organisers replied to a similar question on FB and stated that all who applied for the 2020 GFA will get a entry if it goes ahead.
Fingers crossed

kilns

Considering New York have announced a 60% capacity for their marathon this year, where does that leave Dublin, considering Ireland has one of the most conservative governments when it comes to Covid in the world.

I would suspect a marathon with 5000-7000 runners confined to laps of the Phoenix park

SeeMoreBut

kilns wrote: »

Considering New York have announced a 60% capacity for their marathon this year, where does that leave Dublin, considering Ireland has one of the most conservative governments when it comes to Covid in the world.

I would suspect a marathon with 5000-7000 runners confined to laps of the Phoenix park

How do you run it in the park. Leaders coming through a group of people. I doubt they want to do that

jams100

kilns wrote: »

Considering New York have announced a 60% capacity for their marathon this year, where does that leave Dublin, considering Ireland has one of the most conservative governments when it comes to Covid in the world.

I would suspect a marathon with 5000-7000 runners confined to laps of the Phoenix park

New York was one of the hardest parts on the US and they've been very conservative since (like ourselves).

We'll just have to wait and see what happens, personally I don't see why it couldn't go ahead (Being outdoors / high vaccination rate etc.) barring a new varient that doesn't work on current vaccines.

I wouldn't be too bothered if they said no to the international racers this year either as they would be higher risk of bringing in a varient if there was to be one floating around come September/October

Edit: There are still 33k taking part in New York marathon, which isn't a small number (60% of their 2019 capacity)

rovers_runner

The fact there will be around 30,000 taking part in the litigation capital of the world is a good enough sign for me.

I'd imagine insurance and federal approval was a job to get across the line but fair play to them.

average_runner

kilns wrote: »

Considering New York have announced a 60% capacity for their marathon this year, where does that leave Dublin, considering Ireland has one of the most conservative governments when it comes to Covid in the world.

I would suspect a marathon with 5000-7000 runners confined to laps of the Phoenix park

I think its down to more insurance costs than anything else.

average_runner

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Govt are talking about 12-15000 at Croker or Aviva by July. if that's the case then marathon goes ahead.

Won't be the government that is blocking it. UK is having major issues getting races going ahead, all due to insurance cost or lack of cover. Same will apply here

Cabaal

I honestly can't see it happening and would be very surprised if it does happen at all, I expect it to be a repeat of last year

sgal

I don’t know much about the difficulty of insurance bar anecdotal evidence etc but if the government are considering 30k at the all Ireland in august then a large participation event like the marathon in late October must be a feasible option (insurance difficulties notwithstanding)

ariana`

sgal wrote: »

I don’t know much about the difficulty of insurance bar anecdotal evidence etc but if the government are considering 30k at the all Ireland in august then a large participation event like the marathon in late October must be a feasible option (insurance difficulties notwithstanding)

Croke Park holds over 80k so I imagine the argument will be that 30k in Croker allows for 1 metre social distancing - close the Hill and use every 2nd seat or something along those lines. It'll be hard to apply social distancing to the marathon start area

Burkie1203

ariana` wrote: »

Croke Park holds over 80k so I imagine the argument will be that 30k in Croker allows for 1 metre social distancing - close the Hill and use every 2nd seat or something along those lines. It'll be hard to apply social distancing to the marathon start area

Its outdoor.
Known rate of infection 0.1%
By October = Minimum 85% of population vaccinated

We are still getting roughly 475 cases a day. Yet hospitalizations and ICU numbers are falling.

You don't need social distancing to be rigidly enforced. DCM2019 and I walked through the corral at the start with hardly anyone near me (9.30 group)

ariana`

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Its outdoor.
Known rate of infection 0.1%
By October = Minimum 85% of population vaccinated

We are still getting roughly 475 cases a day. Yet hospitalizations and ICU numbers are falling.

You don't need social distancing to be rigidly enforced. DCM2019 and I walked through the corral at the start with hardly anyone near me (9.30 group)

I hear ya 100% but I find it hard to see it happening. Hopefully I'll be proved wrong, I'd like nothing more than for it to go ahead. I don't have an entry but I have a hotel booked & I'm excited at the prospect of spectating so I'll be keeping everything crossed for it

Van.Bosch

ariana` wrote: »

Croke Park holds over 80k so I imagine the argument will be that 30k in Croker allows for 1 metre social distancing - close the Hill and use every 2nd seat or something along those lines. It'll be hard to apply social distancing to the marathon start area

I would argue 30,000 in a stadium is riskier than 20,000 doing a marathon if starting is staggered.

Also the 30,000 is pencilled in for August, two months later things should be even better

ultrapercy

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I would argue 30,000 in a stadium is riskier than 20,000 doing a marathon if starting is staggered.

Also the 30,000 is pencilled in for August, two months later things should be even better

the big stumbling block for any event is confidence for the organisers. A big outlay 6 months in advanced with the risk of further variants and another lockdown is probably too risky for an event thats struggling finiancially as it is. The expo is probably a no go so thats also a massive revenue stream gone.

FinnC

Why would the expo be a no go when shopping centres all over the country are opened now?
I was in Liffey Valley the other day and it was jam packed, can’t see any reason why an Expo couldn’t go ahead next October.

daydorunrun

200 waves of 100 people..... be grand!

Not too hopeful of it going ahead personally. Have booked Manchester 3 weeks earlier, if Dublin goes ahead it'll be a bonus.

Burkie1203

ultrapercy wrote: »

the big stumbling block for any event is confidence for the organisers. A big outlay 6 months in advanced with the risk of further variants and another lockdown is probably too risky for an event thats struggling finiancially as it is. The expo is probably a no go so thats also a massive revenue stream gone.

That could be said for anything. Why open book shops in case of another variant, or why open gyms etc.

We are still averaging close on 500 cases a day yet the number of people in hospital and the number of people admitted to ICU keeps falling.

Close on 300,000 vaccines last week by all accounts. In 5 weeks time when DCM have to make a decision, another 1,000,000+ vaccines will have been administered.

By August, anyone who wants a vaccine will have the option.

ultrapercy

Burkie1203 wrote: »

That could be said for anything. Why open book shops in case of another variant, or why open gyms etc.

We are still averaging close on 500 cases a day yet the number of people in hospital and the number of people admitted to ICU keeps falling.

Close on 300,000 vaccines last week by all accounts. In 5 weeks time when DCM have to make a decision, another 1,000,000+ vaccines will have been administered.

By August, anyone who wants a vaccine will have the option.

I don't think the comparrison with shoos, gyms etc is valid. They must plan and invest now for something which may be upskittled in 6 months time. They would need a very high precentage gaurantee to take the risk and Im not sure thats there. We'll probably know more by the end of the week. I think it could go ahead safely but I understand why an organiser of any event may be reluctant to take the risk.

Burkie1203

ultrapercy wrote: »

I don't think the comparrison with shoos, gyms etc is valid. They must plan and invest now for something which may be upskittled in 6 months time. They would need a very high precentage gaurantee to take the risk and Im not sure thats there. We'll probably know more by the end of the week. I think it could go ahead safely but I understand why an organiser of any event may be reluctant to take the risk.

80-85% of population vaccinated by then.

Flu season didn't prevent the marathon going ahead.

Sure snow could come on the Friday and linger for a few weeks.

Burkie1203

5000 at large outdoor venues from august.

That's the marathon out the window