Leinster Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread XII (The Byrne Supremacy)

Neil3030

I just looked up the rules on the Premiership salary cap, and were they to apply like-for-like in the URC (and allowing currency xe), a home-grown player can have £50k (€60k) of their salary not count toward the cap (max of 12 players) and a player in the Ireland squad have £80k (€95k) not count. Two additional marquee players don't count at all.

So just looking at the 23 who lined out for Leinster against Toulouse, i'll remove Sexton and Tadhg as I imagine they're the highest earners, you're left with:

14 who were in the 6N squad this yeah (i)

and 17 who were home grown (h)

Porter (i) (h)

Kelleher (i) (h)

Furlong (i) (h)

Molony (h)

Ryan (i) (h)

Doris (i) (h)

van der Flier (i) (h)

Conan (i) (h)

Gibson-Park (i) 

Sexton (i) (h)

Lowe (i) 

Henshaw (i) 

Ringrose (i) (h)

O'Brien (i) (h)

Keenan (i) (h)

Sheehan (i) (h)

Healy (i) (h)

Alaalatoa

McCarthy (h)

Ruddock (h)

McGrath (h)

Byrne (h)

Frawley (h)

That's cap allowances of €2m, or in other words, a total possible wagebill of €7.9m (going on the base cap of £5m for 21/22).

So taking €2.5m away to pay for the wider squad, that'd still leave €250k average for the 21 players above not named Tadhg Furlong or Johnny Sexton, before they exceed the cap.

tl:dr the salary cap is not an excuse for English teams underperforming.

Dave_The_Sheep

Does that cap not have to include the extended squad as well (not just a matchday 23) ?

RichieRich_89

It seems Munster are 5 point favourites with the bookies. When was the last time they beat Leinster in Lansdowne Road? 2014, was it?

Ahern is doing the press stuff, so he's probably down to start. Him and Kleyn would be quite an imposing pairing. I'd like to see Baird step up and deliver on his potential. He wasn't having a great season prior to his injury. Assuming he starts this week alongside McCarthy and ahead of Toner and Dunne I think it is based more on where he might get to rather than on who's been delivering on the pitch. It would be good to see a quality performance from him.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082252#Comment_119082252

Playing devils advocate here; this is applying the English salary cap like-for-like directly to the URC, but there are a couple of major differences between the leagues, which I think makes this flawed.

• English clubs play 33% more regular season games than their URC equivalents; their claim they need bigger squads is reasonable.
• The English clubs have fixtures during international windows which the URC clubs now don’t; presumably that’s the justification for the international player credits.
• I think the home grown credits are capped at a certain amount too, which I don’t think you’ve taken into account?

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082836#Comment_119082836

Addressed here: "So taking €2.5m away to pay for the wider squad, that'd still leave €250k average for the 21 players above not named Tadhg Furlong or Johnny Sexton, before they exceed the cap."

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119083191#Comment_119083191

Point 1: Fair point, though it's technically moving (or at least splitting and multiplying) the goalposts. If their league is demanding AND imposes wage restrictions, you're dealing with two factors interacting. I was clear to say that my (tbf VERY rough) analysis only addresses people using the salary cap alone as an excuse. Which an irritatingly high number of people do.

Point 2: Technically true, but practically speaking, the IRFU impose rests/recuperation on internationals at various times of the year. So I'd see the broader point of "compensation for not having these players available" as fairly transferable between the Premiership and URC (or at least, to Irish Provinces).

Point 3: Thanks, I think you indeed spotted a mistake on my part. International allowance is not capped. Homegrown allowance is capped at £600k, max £50k (€60k) per player, so basically 12. I thought I was allowing for this but must have screwed up somewhere.

14*€95k (internationals) + 12*€60k (homegrown) = €2m in credits.

Total cap room is now €7.9m minus the €2.5m for the children, leaves ~€250k average salary for the 21 non marquee players in that matchday squad.

Dave_The_Sheep

Ah I misread that sentence completely. Ta.

Interested Observer

I expect Munster will win this given Leinster will be resting most/all of the 23 for the Euro final but have just seen two records that are likely to go at the weekend which is a shame:

Haven't lost 3 consecutive league games since 2008

Haven't lost to Munster in Lansdowne since 2014 during the Mocalypse. Think that might be their only win against Leinster in Lansdowne.

Lsdrugbyfan

Munster 5/6 point favourites.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't game for Munster. With the likely squad to field for Leinster it's hard to know what Munster could take away from a win.

A loss would lead to another week of soul searching headlines.

Lsdrugbyfan

its similar to the rainbow cup game, i'd expect a similar result hopefully a bit closer though.

Serbian

As mentioned above, it's almost exactly the same scenario as the Rainbow Cup. We have nothing riding on this game whatsoever, but it's season defining for Munster. It's a shame it has come to this, but we hammered them when it mattered and we've earned the right to rest whoever we want here.

Hopefully we can keep the matches versus the other provinces towards the beginning or middle of the season where the result could actually matter.

Clegg

We're two days out from Leinster Vs Munster at the Aviva and nobody really seems to give a shite about it.

We know Leinster will most likely rotate out 15-20 players who were in the squad for the Toulouse game. Munster also have a lot of injuries to contend with and while they'll still name a stronger 15 than ours, it probably won't be strong enough for pundits or fans to definitively say they'll win. Very little spite or vitriol going into this one.

RichieRich_89

It'd be a good game to win. The gap is getting wider, if anything, and this is an opportunity to demoralise them some more.

I'm looking forward to seeing more of John McKee, Joe McCarthy, Cormac Foley and Jamie Osborne.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084751#Comment_119084751

We're two days out from Leinster Vs Munster at the Aviva and nobody really seems to give a shite about it.

I'd say this is the first ever Leinster v Munster game that I am able to attend but giving serious consideration to not bothering my arse.

Interested Observer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084751#Comment_119084751

I don't particularly at the moment though I'll be fairly unhappy when Leinster are beaten. I won't be going anyway, have to pick and choose what games I can attend and this one doesn't make the cut.

RichieRich_89

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085023#Comment_119085023

When?

The bookies reckon if this game was played three times Leinster would win once. It wouldn't be that surprising to see them do the job, would it?

Munster do have some good players - Ahern, Kendellen. And I don't think de Allende's absence hurts them particularly. He's a high level player, obviously, but him and Farrell have never really clicked. Scannell and Farrell is probably a more balance partnership.

It seems the bench players (bar Ala'alatoa) were training this week, so the Leinster XXIII might be somewhat stronger than initially projected.

Dubinusa

Everyone will bitch and moan when the squad is announced! I S.A it will be along the lines that Leinster are doing Munster a favor. Then it will be Leinster don't respect the league! Nobody will say that Leinster are putting a few young players into a fairly high pressure environment to glean experience!

There's not much interest from Leinster, top seed is secured. A European final right around the corner etc. I like to see the wee nippers get a run, that's the point of developing players.

crisco10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084858#Comment_119084858

Same here, given we will (hopefully) be looking at 4 consecutive weeks of matches (Marseille + URC knockouts x 3) that I want to attend, the match this week may be sacrificed to maintain reasonableness in terms of domestic duties. Mad really, it's Munster v Leinster like.

sydthebeat

ill be there shouting my head off for leinster anyway.. feck sake its against Munster in the Aviva.

whereas i expect Munster to win, based on the lads we'll be resting, our seconds have shown they are no pushovers. Its a time to shine for these guys.

I expect it to be a close game, and close games are exciting. That being said, should Munster loose, there will be apocalyptic levels of soul searching and existential crises afterwards.

I could see Ryan, Ruddock, McCarthy, Frawley, Ross Byrne, Alaalato and McGrath play in both the Munster and LaRochelle game.

I could also see none of them play, but if I was picking out a few players that could be retained from the Toulouse match it would be the above.

Exclamation Marc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085583#Comment_119085583

With Furlong injured, I'd be very surprised if Alalatoa is risked as he played nearly a full game against Toulouse.

Lsdrugbyfan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085703#Comment_119085703

agreed, same I doubt Ryan will be anywhere near a rugby field.

Lsdrugbyfan

ROG a bit vague on Skelton on OTB, says there is a chance he could play in final.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119088410#Comment_119088410

A maybe-fit Skelton is a difficult choice. Could put in a huge 50 mins or could be off the pace and blowing out his arze the whole time. Not sure what I'd do but I'd probably play him.

What would you do if he's maybe-fit?

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119088410#Comment_119088410

Just watched the interview on YT.

When asked he said "I told Will that I'd see him at pre-season training , but he doesn't accept that" and then the OTB lads said "so you're saying there's a chance" to which he replied "There's always a chance in sport"

That to me says that it's not even remotely close to even a 50:50 call on him being available - barring a miraculous intervention , I'd say Skelton isn't playing...

Clegg

Interesting team named. It's great to see Larmour and Baird back. Looking forward to our 10/12/13 axis. They're all very dangerous players and could do some good with decent ball. Although not really enthused by the latter playing in the backrow. Wonder if the emergence of McCarthy and signing of Jenkins means we'll see Baird permanently move to the blindside.

https://twitter.com/leinsterrugby/status/1527604547253944322?t=0rRlAy36JC2FCUH7P_Tglw&s=09

sydthebeat

exciting team. hoping to see the good things that ben murphy can bring off the bench

Interested Observer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119088783#Comment_119088783

Watched this morning and also my read on it, he wanted to try leave a bit of uncertainty but imo sounds like no chance of Skelton playing.

Clegg

Munster name as close to a full strength side as they can. They obviously need the win far more than Leinster. Still hoping we can stay competitive of course.

Munster: Mike Haley; Andrew Conway, Chris Farrell, Dan Goggin, Keith Earls; Joey Carbery, Conor Murray; Josh Wycherley, Niall Scannell, John Ryan; Jean Kleyn, Thomas Ahern; Fineen Wycherley, Alex Kendellen, Jack O’Donoghue (C).

Replacements: Diarmuid Barron, Jeremy Loughman, Keynan Knox, Jason Jenkins, Jack Daly, Craig Casey, Ben Healy, Rory Scannell.

Clegg

A point I've seen made elsewhere but might merit discussion.

Cian Healy is back in the squad as a tighthead. He hasn't played there since last year. Could that possibly be a sign that Furlong will be missing for next weekends final?