Leinster Team Talk Thread (Love you Furlong time)

Clegg

Nienaber is flying back to Dublin today. Will be getting the first choice 23 ready for Northampton.

https://twitter.com/SSRugby/status/1782695916463382957?t=bgjCKHY2vb3icH_lmvhZUg&s=09

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122056538#Comment_122056538

Cityjet haven't operated flights under their own name for about five years now. Their business is supplying aircraft and crew to operate on behalf of other airlines. Any deal with Leinster was probably gone well before that.

Dubinusa

Another article (rugby pass) about Leinster & the CC'S. It goes into the signing of Barrett and Snyman. My take is it's critical of the structures of the union.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122057098#Comment_122057098

Do you mean this Planet Rugby article as opposed to Rugbypass: https://www.planetrugby.com/news/loose-pass-leinster-becoming-a-runaway-monster-rotation-problems-and-newcastle-falcons-concern

If so, two things:

Firstly, it's not critical of the structures of the union. In fact it explicitly says the direct opposite: "Irrespective of everything below national team level, the Irish model over the past 15, even 20 years, has been nothing but a success."

It's a relatively poorly written piece that has no fresh perspectives on this debate, but even if it was critical, who cares? It's a rugby website with a strong English and South African influence. It is known for being occasionally sensationalist to drive clicks etc.

sydthebeat

its been a long time since ive seen leinster as 15 point underdogs going into any game….

Skyfloater

Is there any chance of me getting a single ticket for the Northampton game? I've been checking Ticketmaster for the last few days and nada. Is my best bet going to Croker early, and asking if anyone has a spare?

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122057277#Comment_122057277

I thought it was a jab at aleinster. But, ok. I'd guess that Leinster will be soon, if not already, a despised team. Sorry for mixing up the feed. There's so many that pop up on my newsfeed.

As an afterthought, do Leinster need another 2nd row? It looks like there's only 4 on the books?

Dubinusa

Yea! But it's probably a decent wager.

Burkie1203

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122057871#Comment_122057871

Joe

James

RGS

Baird An option

Deeny and COT

don't see anyone being signed

pickarooney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122057751#Comment_122057751

It's getting a bit insulting to the SA teams sending over cannon fodder. Is there some reason Leinster always travel there at the arse end of the URC?

salmocab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122057856#Comment_122057856

I wouldn’t panic. Single tickets are likely to be easy enough to get. Keep your ear to the ground. Bank holiday weekend there’ll be plenty told you will in your hole be going to that

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122057904#Comment_122057904

It's definitely something the schedulers need to look at , this is the 3rd year in a row where Leinster have had their SA tour block right in the middle of the knock-out phase of the Champions cup.

They need to do a bit better here.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122057904#Comment_122057904

Unfortunately I'm struggling to think of a time of the season where we would send a strong squad.

RichieRich_89

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122057889#Comment_122057889

Deeny will hopefully make a big leap forward, because by next season he could well feature in the strongest available XXIII with Snyman's injury record and Baird being seen as the starter at blindside.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058006#Comment_122058006

We'd likely never send a full bore squad , but earlier in the season the chances of a higher representation from the starting Champions Cup 23 would be much better.

FrannoFan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122057904#Comment_122057904

Can't see it ever happening. Same way sexton rarely played an away game outside Ireland. Frontline players will always be resting from something or for something.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058006#Comment_122058006

Leinster won't

Early season the players are been bedded back into the team as they have probably been on a summer tour

Then you have the team getting ready for the November AI's so the main Irish players won't travel

After November you have players rested after the AI's, plus European games

Then in Jan/Feb you have players getting ready for 6 nations

After 6 nations Leinster would play to be in the same position as now

The only time I could see it is if Leinster got knocked out early, group stages of Europe and just playing for the URC, requiring two wins

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122057871#Comment_122057871

I don't see any reason for Leinster to be considered a "despised team", especially not outside of Ireland. Despite stupid social media jabs from some of those notorious troll accounts, Leinster is still a team where over 90%+ of the squad is produced via their own Academy.

Anyone trying to compare Leinster to the likes of Toulon or Saracens is utterly clueless.

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122057889#Comment_122057889

What's Deeny's status. Is he signed on for next season?

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058075#Comment_122058075

But that's the crux. In a roundabout way, some pundits, imo, are implying that Leinster are a Toulon, Sarries etc. At least that's my understanding. Granted the team is mostly homegrown and some excellent signings but, it's to the point where I think Leinster is the only game in town.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058105#Comment_122058105

He signed a contract in 2022.

Unsure of tenor of that deal, but he's not going anywhere so will be there next year in all likelihood.

I agree with you that we look a little light there - I've never been too impressed with him in his performances so far (and haven't seen enough of Conor O'Tighearnaigh to know if he's ready to step up and take some minutes).

Ross Molony has averaged 1,329 minutes over the past three seasons (which works out at almost 17 full games) so it's a lot of minutes for someone to step into, and even if Snyman miraculously stays fit, there's unlikely a scenario where Leinster envisage getting even half that production out of him. If you include all of the domestic (non-international) minutes Snyman has played over the past 5 seasons you have a lower number (1,253 mins) than Molony's average.

I thought there was scope this year to try and bring back a lower cost, IQ option in the second row (like Jack Dunne for example who's leaving Exeter and moving to Scarlets), but doesn't look like they're doing anything in that regard.

You don't really want to see Baird plugged in to fill gaps in the row either in case of injury, as he looks better placed focusing on the 6 shirt where he's having a great season. Equally, Ireland won't want Ryan & McCarthy playing massive minutes either.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058125#Comment_122058125

Yeah, but absolutely nobody anywhere takes the likes of TRK or the other PSOM guys seriously. Similarly, very few people would place much weight on the opinions of random, unknown journalists for the likes of Planet Rugby. The PSOM guys in particular make money for themselves by throwing muck at Leinster, they do it purely to inflame arguments because it gives them relevance, and drives engagement which makes money for them.

By contrast, in the past week, there have been relatively well considered comments from people like Rob Baxter, Bernard Jackman, John Ryan etc which aren't castigating Leinster for the situation they're in.

As I said - people comparing a Leinster team where over 90% of the squad is produced in their own Academy to the Toulon super teams etc aren't really worth getting too worried about.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058125#Comment_122058125

I find it strange. They complain about Leinster, especially on BT/TNT, then lord over how great LaR are who are the closest team to Toulon currently, without the gobby owner of course.

Lost Ormond

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058275#Comment_122058275

Are they really? Relatively few non French players and can't be compared to toulon or near close to what they were in their pomp.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053074#Comment_122053074

He would need to add enough weight that you'd almost think it would be 2026 before he played much there.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058075#Comment_122058075

At the end of the day, having the money to buy a team and having the money to keep anyone you want to keep is functionally the same thing to big french teams. Its all money at the end of the day.

I'd agree it is morally better if that's the right word, but french teams would counter that leinster also have unique advantages in that they have a virtual monopoly on talent in their region. Players can leave but you are only making more money outside ireland.

I do think, especially if say leinster win this year and next, that the big french teams will want more financial transparency and possible some kind of cap that mirrors the french one.

The irfu would argue its not that simple as central contracts are partially for international duty and so on and so on, but you know.. if you can destroy a thing you control the thing.. and the french can bin the european cup tomorrow and not blink.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058320#Comment_122058320

100% agree tbh, made a similar point not too long ago and stand over it.

I think any comparisons to Toulon are wide of the mark. For example, it's pretty well known that Botia and Atonio played for them in Pro D2 over a decade ago. 

It's really not like Toulon circa 2014 who had a cast of the biggest names in world rugby.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058320#Comment_122058320

That’s because of the JIFF system which now restricts the clubs from doing a Toulon

They had the strongest squad in Europe which was built up very quick when you look at similar French team, they played in pro D2, for a massive injection of money and went to the top of Europe, from recollection quicker then Toulon managed.

Toulon did it a lot more high profile because of the owner and they had the option to fill the team with loads of non French

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058456#Comment_122058456

Not sure why you needed to copy and paste the same post again 🤷

sydthebeat

La Rochelle have to abide by stricter jiff and non french rules in their squads compared with what Toulon had to.

Comparisons are disingenuous because of this.

Any attempt to compare is to apples and oranges. Both teams maxed out their foreign allowance.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058451#Comment_122058451

Firstly, Leinster don’t have the money to keep anyone they want. Ross Molony is a prime example of this being discussed on this thread today. Leinster would have liked to keep him, and unquestionably there’s a financial offer that could have kept him, but it wasn’t doable for Leinster this year.

Secondly - the two scenarios are not remotely comparable in any given way. Toulon in c. 2013 had global superstars not making the match 23. They had guys like Joe Van Niekerk, Steffon Armitage, Freddie Michalak, Gethin Jenkins, Davit Kubriashvili, Maxime Mermoz all coming off the bench in a European Cup Final. In 2014 they had guys like Ali Williams and Martin Castrogiovanni etc coming off the bench.

The guys missing out on Leinster 23s for European games etc are guys like Max Deegan, Scott Penny etc. It’s not even remotely comparable.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058567#Comment_122058567

Its the same in that anyone with any idea of rugby contract values can look at your squad next year and say 'yea, that's probably well over the french cap'. People aren't dumb.

That's the same and that's all that really matters to bordeaux, la rochelle and toulouse. Why should they care about the origin of the players?

Ross Moloney level players leaving VERY occasionally is not exactly a hardship.

RichieRich_89

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058567#Comment_122058567

Which global superstars didn't make the Toulon match 23? My memory is fuzzy.

The names you mention are bench players in Toulon's case but guys not making the XXIII in Leinster's case

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058275#Comment_122058275

Indeed.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058518#Comment_122058518

Because I think your characterisation of LAR as Toulon-sans-Boudjellal is an unfair one.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058668#Comment_122058668

For the reasons previously discussed - the central contracts are at least partially recognition of the international obligations of the players so simply comparing Leinster’s wage bill to Toulouse’s is not like for like, unless you also include the FFR payments to the French internationals in the Toulouse squad.

You’re apportioning the entirety of the IRFU central contract value to Leinster’s central contracted players, but not giving any recognition to the FFR payments to the French players. It’s not an apples with apples comparison.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058814#Comment_122058814

Ok, fair enough.

We can't see actual irfu figures so we don't know exactly what the numbers are. If i'm the top 14 at the next negotiation i want to look at the actual numbers and i would be extremely skeptical of the irfu deciding that x amount of furlongs salary is actually for ireland, and y amount is for leinster… when leinster are a branch of the irfu and all money basically comes from them anyway.

I'd be personally surprised if even including FFR payments, that leinster are below toulouse next year but who knows. Intentionally, no one knows.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058979#Comment_122058979

Leinster signed a NZ player on a short term 6 month contract

They also signed a fairly injury ravaged player on a pay per play deal for 1 year

This while losing two NIQ and a number of long term squad players

Now we have people claiming the IRFU and Leinster have better spending power than Toulouse & FFR.

FFR bought a World Cup after all off IRFU

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058979#Comment_122058979

It’s possibly higher next season, but I would supremely doubt Leinster’s wage bill is higher this season when I compare the squads on a position group by position group basis.

Have a good friend who works as a rugby agent in Ireland and has a handful of current Irish internationals as clients. Per him it is absolutely not the case that all centrally contracted players are on close to the typically reported level (€500k pa) and he said this was the upper end for the majority compared to the average as typically portrayed.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122059233#Comment_122059233

In other words you spent alot of money on two extremely in demand players.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122059272#Comment_122059272

I just can't see irish internationals being that underpaid. Like furlong could have got 750k abroad when he signed his deal. Its hard to imagine that he is taking that big a paycut to play for ireland. Especially if central contracts exclude you from match fees.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058689#Comment_122058689

They had ludicrous depth in certain positions.

In 2013/14 as back row options they had all of the following: Juan Smith (70 cap Springbok), Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe (71 Argentina caps), Chris Masoe (20 All Blacks caps), Joe van Niekerk (52 Springbok caps), Danie Rossouw (63 cap Springbok) and Steffon Armitage (5 England caps and European Player of the Year that season).

In the back three they had all of: Drew Mitchell (71 Australia caps), Bryan Habana (124 Springbok caps), Josua Tuisova (19 Fiji caps), Alexis Palisson (21 France caps), Rudi Wulf (4 All Blacks caps), Delon Armitage (26 England caps) and David Smith (started majority of games that season and top try scorer).

Maxime Mermoz (35 France caps) didn't usually crack a match day 23 for them as they had Giteau and Basteraud as first choice centre pairing.

Simple maths would tell you they couldn't get all of these guys into a match 23 so at least some were regularly missing out.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122059414#Comment_122059414

If you think so

Not sure how "extremely in demand" a player for a few months is and another with a horrendous injury record

I will be interested to see how it plays out for Leinster, hopefully a success

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122058689#Comment_122058689

This was the team which played in the 2013 adn 2014 HC final for an example

You can see why France have introduced the JIFF system

Then the next year

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122059590#Comment_122059590

Not sure how "extremely in demand" a player for a few months is 

I’m fairly sure how extremely in-demand a player for a few months is when that player is Jordie Barrett…

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122059608#Comment_122059608

Thank you, so I said I am not sure and you confirmed you are not sure either 🤔

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122059620#Comment_122059620

If you want to argue that even 6-month Jordie Barrett wouldn’t be extremely in-demand, you can, but I think you’re very wrong.

I've done this exercise before where I try to backsolve into what is Leinster's likely salary cost, including the Central Contracts, and even if I'm being extremely bullish on certain salaries, I still struggle to get to the numbers people attribute to them.

Group A: 9 centrally contracted players: Furlong (€650k), Porter (€600k), Sheehan (€500k), Ryan (€500k), Van der Flier (€500k), Henshaw (€500k), Ringrose (€500k), Keenan (€500k) - you could argue some of these might be a little higher, but I would pretty much guarantee quite a few of these are substantially lower too. Total of this cohort: €4.85m

Group B: 7 High paid established internationals: James Lowe (€300k), Jack Conan (€300k), Jamison Gibson Park (€300k), Ronan Kelleher (€250k), Michael Ala'alatoa (€250k), Ross Byrne (€250k), Charlie Ngatai (€250k) Total: €1.9m

Group C: 11 Breakthrough internationals or guys winding down: Jimmy O'Brien (€200k), Ryan Baird (€200k), Max Deegan (€200k), Will Connors (€200k), Rhys Ruddock (€200k), Cian Healy (€200k), Luke McGrath (€200k), Jordan Larmour (€200k), Jason Jenkins (€200k), Ross Molony (€200k), Ciaran Frawley (€200k) Total: €2.2m

Group D: 5 Guys largely on their second pro contract, or not established starters: Joe McCarthy (€150k), Scott Penny (€150k), Harry Byrne (€150k), Jamie Osborne (€150k), Ed Byrne (€120k). Total: €720k

Group E: 12 Guys largely on their first contract: Sam Prendergast (€90k), Liam Turner (€90k), Tommy O'Brien (€90k), Rob Russell (€90k), Michael Milne (€90k), Tom Clarkson (€90k), Cormac Foley (€60k), Brian Deeny (€60k), Martin Moloney (€60k), Alex Soroka (€60k), Lee Barron (€60k), John McKee (€60k). Total: €900k

That gives a total of €10.57m total which is pretty much in line with the French cap. There are a handful you could argue the toss on either way, but I would say there are a lot more in there where I've over-estimated the salary (Ngatai, Connors, Jenkins, Molony, Frawley, Osborne, McCarthy, Penny) than guys where I've under-estimated.

For next season - JGP will move from c. €350k to c. €500k (I doubt he's going to that high a number), and you're bringing in Jordie Barrett on c. €300k and Snyman on c. €500k, so that's adding €950k to the overall bill, but you also have to take out all of: Ala'alatoa (€250k), Jenkins (€200k), Molony (€200k), Byrne (€120k), Ngatai (€250k), so that's taking €1.02m out of the overall bill, leaving it broadly flat YoY at €10.55m for next year. Obviously if they sign another THP it will go up a bit.

I've already made the point that this isn't an apples and apples comparison to the French cap (because the French players get additional FFR payments), so while it's obviously higher than the other Irish provinces and the other URC teams, it's pretty much directly in line with the French cap. It absolutely isn't anywhere remotely close to the nonsensical figures bandied around in the past week of c. €13m-€14m or anything close to that.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122059636#Comment_122059636

So? Why would anyone be concerned about what you “think”?

I posted I wasn’t sure, so who is arguing? Apart from you because I’m not agreeing with you 🤷

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122059423#Comment_122059423

It’s not an absolute certainty that he could have. People generally on here have a tendency to over-inflate rugby salaries generally.

Salaries have come down in Europe in recent years - the English and Welsh have imposed severely restrictive salary caps, the French slightly cut back their cap post COVID and the Irish have notably never been the best payers.

Even if Furlong could have gotten €750k from a French team, he’d have to balance that up with the expectation that he plays 16-20 games a year for them, when he’s averaged under 9 games a year for Leinster the past few years.

A lot of players would have the sense to realise that while they might make an extra 15% playing in France, they might only make that for a season or two, while staying in Ireland might extend their career by an extra couple of years beyond that, and keep them fresher for international rugby.

A relatively well put together article from John O’Sullivan in the Irish Times in June ‘23 had the following salary ranges for Irish rugby players:

Academy Contract: €8k pa

First Pro Contract: €15-€20k

Senior Provincial Contract: €80k-€100k

Regular Provincial Non International: €100k-€150k

Top End Provincial: up to €350k

Central Contracts: €500k-€600k, upper ceiling of €700k for select few