FF leadership heaves

Loafing Oaf

touts wrote: »

I suspect Martin will finish his two year stint as Taoiseach and then step aside saying he won't contest the next election.

I think you're right, except (pedant alert) it's two and a half years. No history of defenestrating sitting taoisigh in FF or FG.
Martin currently saying he will lead the party into the next election but he has to do that or he becomes a lame duck.

Even Norma Foley will probably throw her hat in the ring

Her necklace, to be precise. Although taking it off may have the Lady Melisandre effect...

flazio

timeToLive wrote: »

why would anyone vote for FF again after this display?

I suspect it's less voting FOR Fianna Fáil and more voting AGAINST Sinn Féin.

Loafing Oaf

flazio wrote: »

I suspect it's less voting FOR Fianna Fáil and more voting AGAINST Sinn Féin.

But if you're strongly anti-SF why would you give FF any preference, given many FF TDs have said they are prepared to go into government with SF?

EmmetSpiceland

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Theres a lot of pro life people in FF, its not the poison pill for the core voters that many outsiders see it as, he’s also not as militant on the issue as lucinda was or aontu are, writing him off based on one view is quite naive as most of the country dont consider it a voting deal breaker

I’m not “writing him off” but if it’s party leadership he’s after, and doesn’t want to wait 10 years, then he should throw his hat in with either of those parties.

Bannasidhe

Deleted User wrote: »

McGrath would probably be my first choice for leader of FF. He appears smart, assertive, and quite likeable which is a rarity of FF members. MM is no leader, he’s a dishcloth.

I agree of the current crop McGrath is probably the best. He tends to steer clear of controversy, his dept isn't in the news linked to cock-up, he is popular in his constituency (even non-FF voters acknowledge he is a good representative/advocate for his constituents) but will FF accept two leaders from Cork in a row?
We have already seen how the "there's no minister from *insert region here* caused ructions when this govt was formed so I would be surprised if the 'geographical' implications didn't play a part in leadership selection. Not that MM has been good for Cork, far from it.

osarusan

I think the idea that FF will somehow come to an end after the next election is fairly fanciful.

If the financial crisis and bailout didn't kill them, what will?

They have a massive nationwide infrastructure and will continue to have that even if they take a hiding at the next GE.

And will they take such a hiding? They're in govt with FG, so there won't be a massive shift in votes there, and even if SF did take power, I think they'd f**k it up so monumentally that they'd be the ones taking a hiding in the GE after that.

Mad_maxx

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

Who have they got in line, though? I’m not a FF voter, along with SF I don’t give them a preference, but I give them a lot of credit for “confidence and supply”, how they didn’t use Covid as a political tactic and going into government with FG.

I would consider a preference now but if they oust Micheál Martin for one of their cartoon politicians like O’Cuív, O’Dea or Donnelly I’d write them off again. Chambers would be another black mark against them.

i will gauge how good a choice they make for leader based on how much contempt people like you hold for that choice

the biggest mistake MM made was pitching towards progressive liberals and ignoring rural conservatives , no self respecting WOKE progressive would ever vote FF or at least give then a number one

Mad_maxx

L1011 wrote: »

Calleary's baggage is too recent; it will pass - the quick resignation will have helped there - but not while COVID restrictions still exist.

Calleary looks like a cabbage patch doll and does not have a good voice either , he is not suitable , he can be the brain of whoever becomes leader but he is not leadership material at all

Mad_maxx

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

When Martin goes, it will be Jim O'Callaghan as leader. 100%

far too south dublin , FF dont like or trust posh guys and more to the point people who are too intellectual in how they communicate

Bobtheman

Deleted User wrote: »

McGrath would probably be my first choice for leader of FF. He appears smart, assertive, and quite likeable which is a rarity of FF members. MM is no leader, he’s a dishcloth. But I would be much more worried about the rise of SF. I am conservative but I understand why people are fed up. I’m fed up, I just couldn’t bring myself to vote that far left. I think a lot of FF members are considering working with SF if it means their survival.

McGrath is smart and a survivor. To return two FF in 2011 in one constituency was some achievements. The other was Martin. But his media personality is terrible. He just bores the pants off people. Coveney has the same issue in FG. Unfortunately in this media age you can't be a leader and a poor performer. They almost dumped Enda Kenny over the same thing. Thus only if they are desperate would they turn to him.
Jim o callaghan has never even held a junior ministry.
He turned down one because it was beneath him and he earns more money in the law. I suppose you can't rule him out but I'd see dara callery or darragh o brien getting in before him. He has not done a huge amount for the party. Jim. Too busy making big bucks

Loafing Oaf

osarusan wrote: »

They're in govt with FG, so there won't be a massive shift in votes there,

I agree there's a limit to how big the swing from FF to FG will be, given the two parties are running on (largely) the same record, but I still believe there will almost certainly be a sizeable swing in that direction, given FG will be positioning itself as the ant-SF going ninto the election, while FF will be caught in no-man's land between the two (emerging) 'big parties'.

Renault 5

Question -

Is there a minimum % of voter turnout required to confirm an election?

Muahahaha

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

When Martin goes, it will be Jim O'Callaghan as leader. 100%

KevRossi wrote: »

RTE and broadsheets will back him so he does actually have a good chance. Not sure about the ordinary members.

Would agree O'Callaghan is the favourite and theres no doubt he wants it badly.
I would say O'Callaghan is spending his time on the backbenches gathering support for his bid but he also has to win over the party grass roots. A Dublin 6 barrister he doesnt strike me as the type to win them over on a chicken and chips tour of Fianna Fail cumanns.

I think the quite man here is Michael McGrath. He is liked by rural members of Fianna Fail and would be palatable to the Dublin set too.

Loafing Oaf

Muahahaha wrote: »

Would agree O'Callaghan is the favourite and theres no doubt he wants it badly.
I would say O'Callaghan is spending his time on the backbenches gathering support for his bid but he also has to win over the party grass roots.

I think many of those same grass roots, while they might not warm to JOC personally, have enough political smarts to recognise that he is their best bet for winning over floating voters.

Muahahaha

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I think many of those same grass roots, while they might not warm to JOC personally, have enough political smarts to recognise that he is their best bet for winning over floating voters.

yeah would agree there is an element of real politik about it and JOC would likely make the better leader. But also think he has a lot of work to do with the grassroots to get there as he comes across as quite aloof and doesnt strike me as a person who understands much outside his Dublin bubble. He needs to get his wellies on and get down the the Ploughing Championships to press the flesh.

Either way FF are choosing from the least worst option as there is no stand out candidate. Both OCallaghan and McGrath are charisma free zones and neither are particularly inspiring.

EmmetSpiceland

Mad_maxx wrote: »

i will gauge how good a choice they make for leader based on how much contempt people like you hold for that choice

the biggest mistake MM made was pitching towards progressive liberals and ignoring rural conservatives , no self respecting WOKE progressive would ever vote FF or at least give then a number one

I hold contempt for FF as a party, regardless of their leader. I do, however, give Micheál Martin a lot of “credit” for putting the country first. My issue with them stems from the crash and tribunal related matters.

Are you an FF voter, M? You don’t “strike” me as one, at all. Would have had you down as a National Party, Direct Democracy or some angry independent with a lot of gripes type voter.

If you have a vote for party leadership, yourself, who would you be “backing”? Éamon Ó’Cuív?

flazio

Renault 5 wrote: »

Question -

Is there a minimum % of voter turnout required to confirm an election?

Not that I'm aware of.
And to answer above why people would have voted FF as an anti SF vote when some in the party were considering SF as partners, it's simple. The amount of time Mary Lou McDonagh went after Martin instead of Varadkar in the election campaign meant there wasn't a chance the two parties would form an alliance.

Loafing Oaf

Mad_maxx wrote: »

i will gauge how good a choice they make for leader based on how much contempt people like you hold for that choice

the biggest mistake MM made was pitching towards progressive liberals and ignoring rural conservatives , no self respecting WOKE progressive would ever vote FF or at least give then a number one

Where did those rural conservatives who would otherwise have voted FF move their vote in the last election, and where are they likely to at next one?

Eric Cartman

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Where did those rural conservatives who would otherwise have voted FF move their vote in the last election, and where are they likely to at next one?

FG because they were promised tax cuts, now theyve been burned twice by that lie If theres anyone showing a bit of backbone in their constituencies it could go that way, probably to an independent as theres no party that represents the working man right now

Loafing Oaf

Eric Cartman wrote: »

FG because they were promised tax cuts, now theyve been burned twice by that lie

You think there was a significant move from FF to FG at the last election? Even though FG lost 14 seats?

Eric Cartman

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

You think there was a significant move from FF to FG at the last election? Even though FG lost 14 seats?

Its where everyone went in 2011 and many stayed with the second time around promise of tax cuts, theyll drop further in rural areas next time.

Amirani

Definitely makes sense for Martin to bow out after his stint as Taoiseach and not attempt to lead FF into the next election, can't see how a successful result could be obtained from that scenario. It makes sense for him to say otherwise though to avoid making himself a lame duck.

As regards successors, would have to be either McGrath or O'Callaghan you would have thought. Though the latter may be a bit too South Dublin and suffers from never having held a ministry.

Bobtheman

But FF have to get it into their heads that it's the policies stupid. Without major gains in housing they are finished

Eric Cartman

Bobtheman wrote: »

But FF have to get it into their heads that it's the policies stupid. Without major gains in housing they are finished

Its the issue of broad church politics.

FF have promised to help the working man, the dole lifer , the garda, the doctor, the mother, the plasterer and the immigrant. But have failed miserably.

We need a party that can say small businesses and the actually working / middle class get their turn for once, the welfare people and immigrants can take a back seat until we sort those people out with housing and lowering taxation and putting them back to work

Bobtheman

Bobtheman wrote: »

But FF have to get it into their heads that it's the policies stupid. Without major gains in housing they are finished

This!!!
Housing will be the bullet. Affordability with these stupid new energy ratings is the killer. The cost needs to be brought down and building needs a kick in the arse big time if we will ever get out of the mess. But I doubt MM will manage anything worthwhile before Leo takes over and we could be looking at the end of FF.

Bobtheman

I think a lot of good policies are on the way including affordable housing schemes. The Government takes a huge amount of tax off new houses. They could cut that and insist it's passed on
As to energy ratings we can't go backwards on them.

Galwayguy35

Eric Cartman wrote: »

MM needs to go, the guy was uninspiring at the best of times and now just looks like a bumbling idiot. the party needs him out if they're to fend off SF in the next election. With the impending tax hikes to pay for covid, the winner of the next election will be the party brave enough to stand for small business owners and the middle/professional classes. They need a mccreevy type business mind with a Bertie style flare for the people.

I said it before but if someone told me back in Sept 08 that MM would be Taoiseach in 2021 I'd have thought they were off their rocker, just proves what a messed up political system we have here.

Floppybits

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

I said it before but if someone told me back in Sept 08 that MM would be Taoiseach in 2021 I'd have thought they were off their rocker, just proves what a messed up political system we have here.

Shows the lack of talent in Fianna Fail but also in politics as a whole.

Floppybits

Floppybits wrote: »

Shows the lack of talent in Fianna Fail but also in politics as a whole.

Or the idiocy of the Irish electorate. Eaten bread is soon forgotten, but so is the poison apparently.

goose2005

Renault 5 wrote: »

Question -

Is there a minimum % of voter turnout required to confirm an election?

No